Luchametric: In The Ghetto

Thursday, July 14, 2011

In The Ghetto

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EPL and MLS Power Rankings, Handicapping and Comprehensive Statistics

The Luchametric is a weighted statistical score that measures a team's overall production. The LM represents the total number of offensive events the team creates each game (for example, Shots and Shots on goal) minus the total number of offensive events per game the team allows to be created against it. Each event is weighted in terms of its relative "worth" in goals.

The weights for each category were derived by looking at a range of variables (statistical categories) and subjecting them to simple regression analysis to identify those stats which were the strongest measure of a team's strength relative to other teams. The metric considers and weights the following variables:

Home Goals, Away Goals, Home Wins, Away Wins, Draws, Losses, Shots, Shots on Goals, Quality Shots on Goal, Corners For, Corners Against, Goals Against, Shots Against, Shots on Goal Against, and Recent Form.

The Z-score gives the relative differences among the teams in Standard Deviations. In other words, if Chelsea has a Z-score of 2.0 and Hull has one of -2.0, Hull is 4 full standard deviations below Chelsea in the rankings. Based on our analysis, in the EPL and the MLS, a difference of one full Standard Deviation indicates a significant difference between any two teams.

To download Excel files containing the comprehensive team stats, click on the appropriate link below. To be put on our mailing list and receive the Luchametric Power Rankings as soon as they are up, including an Excel file with that week's data, click here.

Current MLS Power Rankings 2011 (updated 6/14/11)
Current MLS Team Statistics 2011 (updated 6/14/11)
Final EPL Team Statistics 2010-2011(updated 6/15/2011)
Final EPL Power Rankings 2010-2011 (updated 6/15/2011)
Final EPL Team Statistics 2009-2010 (updated 6/1/2010)
Final MLS Power Rankings 2009 (updated 10/28/09)
Final MLS Team Statistics 2009 (updated 10/29/09)
Statistics Key

MLS Fixtures Odds, Probabilities, Recomendations: August 19, 2010

Our recommendation is based on the LM Power Rankings, a comprehensive statistical comparison of both clubs, and our overall estimation of the real probability of a win by either club combined with the value of the payout offered by the books. "Added Value" is our estimation of any additional percentage probability of a win. So a team with an added value of +10 is deemed to have an additonal 10% chance of winning. A team with a negative added valude is deemed to have less of a percentage chance to win. Recommendations in blue are our best bets.

A Message from Crew General Manager Mark McCullers (From the Black & Gold Standard)

Nordecke Supporters:

I have received several emails regarding the increased security presence in the Nordecke for the Saprissa match. We have respectfully requested that the chants including profanity, most importantly GTFO, cease. Unfortunately that chant has continued, specifically during the Cruz Azul match and then several times during the LA match. During our highest attended game of the year, with the opportunity to impress people that might attend more Crew games at Crew stadium, we instead left a negative impression with unnecessary chanting of unacceptable profanity.We have received numerous complaints from fans, and now have indications from sponsors that they are reconsidering their financial support because they cannot be associated with an environment that includes this behavior. My pride in the Nordecke and what it brings to the club is deep and well documented. But this behavior, again, compromises our repuation and cannot be tolerated. We must identify and deal with those who insist on perpetuating this behavior, which explains the increased security measures.

I apologize to those who respect our policies and standards. I hope that those who disrespect the club and others in the stadium begin to understand our position and refrain from unnecessary and detrimental behavior. Until then, we must take action to protect our reputation and collective interests.

This is an exciting time for our team and organization. I regret that this blemish has once again manifested itself and hope that it is quickly resolved.

Sincerest regards,
Mark

Columbus 'till I Die!

El Luchador wrestles with the tough issues surrounding the Crew. He is assisted in his efforts by El Chupacabra. Together they provide MLS and Crew fans with valuable information and analysis of both soccer and soccer wagering. We are completely independent and have no affiliation with the MLS, the Crew or any commercial sportsbook.

Online sports wagering is not explicitly illegal but the law is murky. No individual has ever been prosecuted for online sports wagering in the US, and the laws on the books generally focus on the financial side of the industry not the actual placing of bets. For more information go here. Nordecke Luchador believes responsible and moderate sports wagering by adults is a healthy and legitimate form of entertainment. Individuals with addictive personalities are encouraged to seek other forms of distraction and amusement.

EPL Current Odds	EPL Recent Form	EPL Injury Reports
MLS Current Odds	MLS Recent Form	MLS Injury Reports

Thursday, July 14, 2011

In The Ghetto

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EPL and MLS Power Rankings, Handicapping and Comprehensive Statistics

MLS Fixtures Odds, Probabilities, Recomendations: August 19, 2010

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