Luchametric

In Honour of Tornto FC's Visit to Columbus

2011-09-08T19:56:00.002-04:00

Oh, Canada!
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

In The Ghetto

2011-07-14T23:27:00.002-04:00

Sporting KC and Home Field Advantage in Soccer: A Luchametric Quickie

2011-06-18T07:55:00.000-04:00

By MJD

Last night Sporting KC got its first home goal and its first home win, beating a surging San Jose club at Livestrong Sporting Park 1-0. We had predicted a SJO win, what with their lead-leading 1.54 Goals For per Game average going into the match, and their excellent recent form: 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 matches. But KC looked better than we've seen them all year and prevailed in what we thought was a tight match. In thinking about what we had missed in our analysis of the match, we realized that we had forgotten the most fundamental truth about professional soccer and about wagering on professional soccer: the 50/25/25 rule.

What's that you say? The facts are that in top leagues across the globe, including the EPL and the MLS, all things being equal, the home team will win 50% of the time, the away team 25% of the time, and the teams will draw 25% of the time. That this is so is just part of the deep fabric of the game, decreed by the soccer gods long ago. There have been various reasons put forth for this phenomenon, to travel demands on players, familiarity with the pitch, to the energy of the home crowd supporting the home team. But we'll save any in-depth discussion of home field advantage for another post.

Here's the quickie. Going into last night's match, KC had played 12 games, 11 of them on the road. In a normal season, half of those 12 games would have been at home, where (again, all things being equal) they would have won a full 50% of those matches (let's call it 6 home games just to make our back-of-a-napkin analysis easy).

Applying the 50/25/25 rule, KC's point total from 6 home games and 6 road games would be 10.5 pts from the home matches (3 wins and 1.5 draws) plus 6 pts from the road matches (1.5 road wins, 1.5 road draws) for a total of 16.5 pts total, not the 10 they were sitting on going into last night's match.

The point is that playing on the road for 11 games to open the season has distorted KC's record considerably, by about 34% or more. This means they are a considerably better club than they've been given credit for.

Playing on the road in any league is tough, resulting in fewer chances created, more chances allowed, more mental mistakes, etc. KC has more home games left in their schedule than any other club. Their PTS/GM will inevitably go up. They will beat clubs at home that are substantially higher than them in the standings. The only caveat to the 50/25/25 rule is that if two teams are not equal in strength, then the percentages get adjusted to the point that with two very uneven teams, the numbers change to 65/17/17 or even higher.

Our claim is that KC probably belongs in the middle of the pack, not down at the bottom with the likes of New England, who have no excuses.

Aston Villa FC, Birmingham City FC, Alex McLeish, Al Lerner: Nordecke Luchador Weighs In

2011-06-17T20:00:00.011-04:00

By The Luchametric Staff

The Daily Mirror is a tabloid, a rag, if you will. Let's face it. It's shite by NYTimes standards. But this report caught our eye. If you haven't yet heard, the Scottish PL had some serious football related violence go on over the last season--including the threat of bombings and the actual realization of pitch invasions, including the on-pitch, during-the-game assault of Celtic manager Neil Lennon. So let's be clear: our view is that such violence, stemming as it does from sectarianism, alcoholism, economic stagnation, and a host of other factors, is perhaps explainable by historians--but utterly unacceptable.

So to see the reemergence of attitudes in the EPL reminiscent of the dark, dark days of the Hillsborough disaster and the latest season of idiocy in Scotland has forced us to weigh in.

By every measure, from news reports, to the podcasts we follow, to our own gaze along the sidelines week in and week out, Alex McLeish is a stand-up man, a mensch--the kind of guy you hope marries your sister. He's had success on the pitch in the SPL and the EPL. Yeah, his teams have twice been relegated, but no one can deny that he has a proven record (two SPL Championships, promotion to the EPL, FA Cup) of doing well with the clubs he's been handed. Most importantly, he's a decent, upstanding, successful, professional, human being.

Last season (2011-2012), unfortunately, his team went down again. And in spite of that failure, he's been hired by the American owner of Birmingham City's cross-town rivals Aston Villa to get the Villains back to the top third of English football and back into the Europa Cup (could Villa possibly get to the Champions League?) And now he's getting death threats from both Villa fans and Blues fans.

Really? Freaking death threats? Bullshit.

And here's where this post comes from: we root for Villa. We have Cleveland ties that run deep; we love football; and although we have our preferences among the bigger clubs, we reserve a special place for Villa in our soccer sancta sanctorum. We understand the passion Birmingham and Villa fans must be feeling, but the vilification of McCleish is utterly dispicable.

No team scored fewer goals per game in the EPl in 2010-2011 than did the Blues. And we are disappointed in Lerner's decision--we think Villa could have done better. But the current reaction by "fans" of both clubs is disgusting. You know what? As US supporters of Villa we welcome Mr. McCleish and wish him our best. Those "supporters" who've lost perspective on a game and a MAN need to step back and reevaluate their priorities.

Sir Alex, we salute you:

USA vs Guadeloupe: Tactical Analysis

2011-06-14T23:22:00.006-04:00

By MJD

According to our favorite scholarly source, Guadeloupe is "an archipelago located in the Leeward Islands, in the Lesser Antilles, with a land area of 1,628 square kilometres (629 sq. mi) and a population of 400,000."

Contrastingly, the USA, "at 3.79 million square miles (9.83 million km²) and with over 308 million people [is] the third or fourth largest country by total area, and the third largest both by land area and population," in the entire world.

And yet the US managed only a minimal 1-0 win at home in an important tournament.

Let's be perfectly clear. The US looked very good overall and much better than the previous three matches (including the Spain friendly)........against Guadeloupe. And at times, the US even looked excellent...........against Guadeloupe, an archipelago located in the Leeward Islands with a land area of only 629 square miles and a population of only 400,000 compared to a country (US) with 3.9 million youth players in a country of 308 million total.

So what gives?

As a good friend recently remarked, when a team (USMNT) comes out flat and gives up early goals game after game across two major tournaments (World Cup and Gold Cup), the coach has to shoulder a considerable amount of blame. Further, one would not be too off base to blame that coach's tactics. In short, given the fact that the USMNT has come out flat in two games in the current Gold Cup, repeating a pattern that goes back to the early goals given up in last summer's World Cup, it would not be too off base to question whether Bob Bradley really knows WTF he's doing in both choosing and lining up his starting XI. Here's what we've seen over the last four games (against Spain, Canada, Panama and tonight against Guadeloupe) to suggest that Bradley, in fact, might be making unwise tactical decisions.

The US is not playing negative football. Which is great. But our high line and our attack-minded approach has left us vulnerable at the back. As our favorite scholarly source explains, "A high defensive line allows teams to pin opposition teams into their own territory and apply pressure when chasing for a goal, however, it leaves the attacking team vulnerable to counter attacks by quick opposition players."

That last sentence explains much of what has ailed the US over the last four games, including last night's win over Guadeloupe. Bradley's 4-4-2 requires both Dempsey and Donovan to pinch in and play as attacking central midfielders rather than as wingers. The US gets its width from the two fullbacks. In this system, Altidore and either Aguduelo or Wondolowski play as strikers, and both Dempsey and Donovan press forward from either flank, looking to create and shoot from central positions but generally arriving from the outside. Neither player hugs the sideline, for example, or tries to get behind the opposing fullbacks. Bradley plays as a type of box-to-box midfielder (although whether such a position still exists in the modern games is subject to some debate), with Jones as the true holding midfielder. The point being that in the US 4-4-2, Bradley will press forward when he can and Jones will hold back (generally speaking). Finally, both fullbacks, Bocanegra and Cherundelo, for example, push high up the field. providing support to the attacking four of Dempsey, Donovan, Agudeuelo and Altidore (although through three Gold Cup matches, Donovan has typically stayed deeper than Dempsey, while the latter has often started from deep but has then looked to get forward, mostly on the left but frequently switching sides with Donovan). To see how the US shape changed as the Panama game went on, click here.

The end result is that the US typically has 6-7 players in the attack phase when they are in possession, which has been fairly frequent in the three Gold Cup matches (I can't find any time-of-possession data thanks to the continued lame statistical coverage of the US soccer media). This is inspiring and shows how much confidence Bradley has in the quality of the US side. But it must be pointed out that Bradley's approach leaves only 3 outfield players (plus Howard in goal) to defend. And what every team over the last three games has shown (Spain just tore us apart from every angle possible) is that you can get behind our two fullbacks and create havoc. Panama did it and won, and Guadeloupe and Canada each created quality chances.

Tactically speaking then, pressing our fullbacks high up the pitch combined with coming out mentally flat has left us vulnerable, with the end result being two shaky wins and one loss.

If one wants to fault Bradley for his tactics, you'd have to begin with the fact that the US system thus far has been too attack-minded, leaving us vulnerable. The "mistake" is thus a result of either too much confidence in the quality of the US side relative to its opponents, and/or a failure to get them mentally ready for the opposition--probably both. The key vulnerability is pressing our outside defensive backs too high up the pitch. Jamaica and Mexico will kill us if it continues.

Against Guadeloupe the US created an incredible number of quality chances (19 shots and 10 shots on goal). They muffed some of those chances and others were stopped by a quality goalkeeper in fine form who had a great night. Regarding the latter--stuff happens. Regarding the former--the US has run out of excuses. If you think riding the bench in Europe means you can throw your jock strap out on the pitch and win against highly-motivated quality athletes in the most important tournament in CONCACAF, you're fooling yourself. Dempsey and Howard start week in and week out in a arguably the best league in the world. But the rest of the US squad aren't exactly locked into their respective European clubs' starting XIs. Donovan plays in the MLS and hasn't done jack in three Gold Cup starts, although last night he was more of a factor than just on free kicks and corners. Dempsey has been stellar throughout the tournament but missed two gimmes last night.

The point is that if Bradley is going to attack, he needs to get his players' respective and collective heads straight from the start. Respect your opponent and come out and win the first 20 minutes--and win them hard. I do not see the US quality as being so far above Panama, Mexico, Jamaica and other countries that they can play without a sense of passion and purpose for a full 90 minutes and be assured of a positive result. In the next stages of the tournament, Bradley needs to consider dropping the two fullbacks back or even going to a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-5-1. Whatever the case, something has to change if the US hopes to advance to the final. Panama showed that we are vulnerable physically and tactically. We may have more skill and experience then the other teams (save Mexico), but it's clearly not enough if we hope to maintain our dominance of CONCACAF.

Bet the Under and the Draw. Do It.

2011-06-05T12:12:00.002-04:00

Once again this season, a great betting angle is to look for the draw and the under in MLS as the teams go through a mid-season slump accompanied by the international call-ups. Every MLS match yesterday was under 2.5 goals, meaning if you had laid down U.S. dollars in legal international betting markets on a 6-game under parlay, you would have made at least 40 to 1.

5 of the last 9 MLS games have been draws.

The reasons for this are simple. Landon Donavon and other goal scorers are on call-up. Teams have higher injuries, and the mid-season stagnation is setting in for certain clubs. Fewer goals means more under bets come in, and more draws are likely.

El Luchador will be looking closely at this week's matches and making recommendations on good value under and draw bets in the coming days.

First up is our own Columbus Crew at home versus the dreaded teetotaling polygamists of Real Salt Lake. This one is NOT a lock, but we will have analysis by 1/2 hour before kickoff once the odds are posted.

As the Luchametric Institute for Predictive Sciences has instructed the Faithful for years, the soccer draw is the highest value bet in the world because people don't like to bet it. You collect from all the suckers who bet one of the teams to win because they couldn't bear them losing.

Bet the draw. Do it.

Mark McCullers' Jack-Booted Thugs Export Their Brutality to Jefferson Memorial

2011-06-03T13:59:00.001-04:00

Former Crew Stadium Security Officers apparently have landed jobs with the U.S. Park Service Police.

As El Luchador has previously reported, the goons who staff security at Crew Stadium look for reasons to throw people out and otherwise interfere with our God-given inalienable rights to public drunkenness.

El Luchador has now learned that this same approach to suppressing freedom has been exported to the U.S. Park Service, who this week arrested several friends of the Luchametric Institute for doing nothing other than dancing at the Jefferson Memorial, ironically a place enshrined to celebrate the value of freedom of expression.

Watch the incredible footage here:

To join the Jefferson Dance Party planned for this Saturday at the memorial in Washington, click here.

Joseph S. Blatter

2011-06-01T23:16:00.000-04:00

WANTED: FOR CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY

I Hate England For Her Greatness

Luchametric MLS Power Rankings: May 20, 2011

2011-05-20T09:29:00.001-04:00

We've updated the Power Rankings for the first time this season. We love a single table, but because there are so many differences among the teams in terms of how many actual games they've played, even a single table distorts their relative strengths, making things rather confusing. Points per game gives you a bit of a better sense of who is playing well, but our statistical measure, which takes in a number of weighted variables, provides an even better measure of the differences (in our opinion).

RSL is on top, which is as it should be. At 2.29 Points per game they are playing extremely well by any of the traditional measures used to rank teams (Points and PPG). Notice that the Z-score for the LM indicates that a Big Four has emerged this season, at least to this point, with RSL, New York, Dallas and Los Angeles all at 1.0 standard deviations or higher above the mean. Notice also that four clubs (Toronto, San Jose, Vancouver and K.C.) are as bad compared to the rest of the league as the top four are better.
Hmmmmmm, perhaps the parity that used to characterize the league is finally gone. We'll see. In any case, Crew fans can take comfort in the fact that our measure puts them above where they are in the single table, reflecting how disciplined and organized they've been thus far (except at San Jose). Now if we could only start scoring some goals...

Five Plus Things We Learned about the Crew Last Night Against FC Dallas

2011-04-02T07:47:00.005-04:00

By MJD

The Crew definitely looked different last night when they lined up against Dallas. Football-Lineups.com has the Crew in a 4-2-3-1 while FSC called it a 4-4-1-1 (they actually called it a 4-4-2 but showed Ekpo lying deep in a 4-4-1-1. I think on attack the shape was more of a 4-2-3-1 but when Dallas had the ball and maintained possession, which was seldom, there were two lines of 4 defending. So, on attack 4-2-3-1 and without possession 4-4-1-1.

Gone also were both Crew fullbacks pushing up the wings on the attack. There was occasional overlap to be sure, which is always expected from the outside backs in the modern game, but the sort of sustained attacks Crew fans saw from Hejduk and Padullo in previous seasons were simply not there. Which is fine. I thought the Crew looked organized in the defensive phase and I would much rather see us playing back than getting caught too far up the pitch and giving up goals.

What We Learned

Ekpo is no Schellotto - It's perhaps not fair to compare the two, but if Warzycha is going to put Ekpo in the hole as the Regista, the Italian term for playmaker, then he needs to create and make plays. He didn't do that last night. Perhaps he'll grow into the position, but goals will be few and far in between until he does so. Gaven did more for CLB in the middle of the park than Ekpo, who frequently drifted to the left, made mistakes resulting in loss of possession, and was generally ineffective.

Gaven Will Come Inside - Eddie was our best player on attack, frequently darting in to the middle to create for others as well as make himself available for passes. His goal in injury time was excellent. Without his presence in the lineup we would have been woeful on offense. We would probably not be too far off to label him a sort of Interiores, a winger who moves into a central position in the attack phase.

Mendoza is Columbus' Adebayor: Without the Quality - Mendoza was lucky to stay on the pitch as long as he did. His work rate was awful and contributed virtually nothing to the Crew's effort. Cunningham replaced him in the 61st minute and was much better at finding space and initiating attacks. It's unfortunate that the latter is a bit long in the tooth to be starting every match, as Mendoza did not impress in the least. Even his penalty strike was awful.

Trade Rogers - If the rumors are correct, the Crew are shopping Rogers and Rogers would like out. Well, given the fact he is yet to break out, his value is probably as high as it's going to go and now is the time to get something for him. He has loads of skills but he, like Ekpo, was ineffective. He strikes us as a true winger who doesn't look to cut inside in a more inside forward role. Which is fine, but his service was terrible, his passing terrible, his first touch horrible. Watching the Crew in attack in the first half made us wonder whether a 4-3-3 was warranted. We weren't really getting anything from our wide play, so why not go to a shape that sacrifices the flanks for a tighter more focused attack? If West Ham can field a 4-3-3 against Man U, which they are doing as I write this, then certainly the Crew could do so on occasion, especially if our back four continue to play well (see below).

Rusmir Will See Red - We like Rusmir alot. He pushed forward in attack and was dangerous when he did so. He was also tough when the Crew didn't have the ball. He and Burns bossed Dallas' midfield in the first 45 minutes. It looks like he will play the sort of role Michael Bradley plays for the USMNT: a true box-to-box midfielder who is dynamic on offense and tough on defense. Nice. He's obviously very emotional, and the only reason he was subbed was that his yellow at the end of the first half meant RW couldn't risk the Crew going down to 10 men tied 0-0 at home when Dallas' Jackson's second boneheaded tackle within 5 minutes gave them an excellent chance to pick up all three points.

Our Back Four are Better than Last Year - Hejduk and Padula will always be loved by Crew Fans, but our back four looked better than I've seen in recent years. James and Marshall were tough in the middle and our fullbacks, although perhaps lacking the wide runs Crew fans are used to seeing from our fullbacks, made virtually no mistakes. Our defense kept its shape and made good decisions and weren't ever really broken down by Dallas. They also showed great pace when Dallas threatened on the break.

Bottom line: the demise of the Crew has been widely exaggerated. I don't see us scoring a lot of goals, but I do see a lot of tight games, a lot of draws, a lot of 1-0, 1-1 results. I certainly have hopes we can make the playoffs. If the suits upstairs can make a move and get more quality up top, a true #10 Regista for example, allowing Ekpo to go back out to the wing, we could make a run come fall. We'll see.

November EPL Power Rankings: The Big Three

2010-11-11T15:39:00.001-05:00

By MJD
We've at long last found time to gather the data and crunch the numbers, and although the rankings might raise a few eyebrows, some of the more interesting tidbits can only be found by drilling down a bit deeper into the actual numbers themselves. First things first, however.

The Rankings

The Big Four is no more. This year, according to our metric, it's the big three and then the rest of the crowd. Chelsea, Man U and Arsenal are top of the table, and are all 1.5 or higher in the Z-score for the LM. Below them are Man City, Everton, Newcastle (yes, Newcastle) and Bolton (yes, Bolton). one could throw Spurs in with this group group, but at .12 STDEVs they don't quite fit in with this second tier of teams. We root for Spurs in Europe, and think they are clearly a quality squad, but we also think playing in two major competitions (EPL and Champions League) is taking its toll. Whatever the case, the drop off from the top three suggests that the EPL is really comprised of about five sets of clubs, the elite (Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal), the good (Everton, Newcastle, maybe Bolton [we'll see]), the above average (Spurs, Sunderland, Liverpool), the below average (West Brom, Fulham, Villa, Blackburn, Blackpool, Birmingham, Wigan, Stoke), and the dregs (Wolves and West Ham).

Now, although we obviously love numbers, we're not slaves to them. It's hard to accept Bolton as being better than Spurs. But they're tied in the table, at least on points without considering any tie breakers, and we have them slightly better in our rankings. Bolton is a bit of an odd bird, however, as although they're scoring goals at a respectable clip (above average in virtually every offensive stat we track), they are also a bit leaky (below average in virtually every defensive stat we track). But on the road they've have been doing exceptionally well, drawing or winning a whopping 84% of their away matches. You can't argue with those results. But they've only won 33% of their home matches, below the league average at the moment of 43% and well below the historical average number of home wins which is generally around 50%. Whatever the explanation, Bolton is certainly a solid side, at least through 12 fixtures.

A Bit Deeper

Here are a number of observations from a bit deeper in the data:

Chelsea has only given up a total of 5 Goals Against, which is best in the league. However, they're giving up Shots Against and Shots on Goal Against at a fairly normal rate: 10.92 SHTA/GM and 4.08 SOGA/GM; the league averages right now are 12.2 and 4.26. This means that the percentage of goals scored against them relative to the number SOGs they give up is a very low 10%. The league average right now is 31%, which is around the historical average for the league and world football generally. In other words, the average team in the EPL gives up one goal for every three shots on goal it allows. Chelsea gives up one goal for every TEN shots on goal it allows. The next time someone you know disses either Petr Cech or Chelsea's back four, punch them in the mouth.

You think Arsenal has a goalkeeping problem? Duh. But here's some numbers worth throwing around: Arsenal gives up only 2.58 SOGA/GM. That's the fewest Shots on Goal Against per Game in the league. And they are only giving up .92 GA/GM, which is well below the league average of 1.31. But they're ratio of GA to SOGA is .35 (the league average is .32). In other words, when teams manage to put a shot on goal, it goes in 35% of the time. So even though they give up fewer shots on goal than the rest of the league, which accounts for their low GA/GM, if you do manage to create a chance, your odds of it going in are actually better than average--because their goalies blow.

Incidentally, Arsenal also leads the league in the ratio of G/SOG at 53%. This suggests that they are very efficient and are also good at creating quality chances rather than mere dribblers that roll to the feet of the keeper. Put a true, world-class keeper in the net and they'd be top of the table.

Finally, what ails Spurs? Given the number of Shots and Shots on Goal they've managed to create, their Expected Goals For is 19. The number of goals they've actually scored is a mere 14. In other words, if they scored goals at the league average rate for every chance they managed to create, they would have 5 more goals than they've actually scored--and goals, boys and girls, equal points in the table. This suggests that the number of true quality chances they create is actually quite low compared to other clubs. One culprit? How about Crouch? Yeah, he's nine feet tall, so it's much easier to put the ball on top of his head, but perhaps all those headers aren't nearly as dangerous as Harry Redknapp wants to believe. I'd build a franchise around van der Vaart, who wouldn't? But clearly, Spurs is much less dangerous on the attack--at least in the EPL--than you'd expect. The numbers, and the dearth of points, don't lie.

Luchametric EPL Power Rankings Updated: Chelsea is a Beast

2010-10-06T14:52:00.006-04:00

By MJD
After a long hiatus, we're finally back with our EPL Power Rankings. The top of the rankings look much like the actual standings--the real insights are a bit further down table. We'll get to those in a second.

First, we'd be remiss not to point out just how dominant Chelsea, in fact, is. They obviously won't end up with 106 points when all is said and done, but our rankings indicate there is some real separation between Chelsea and even the top clubs. Currently, they enjoy a 1.45 advantage over the next closest club (Man U) in the Z-score. Over the last three seasons in the EPL, a difference of 1.0 has indicated a strong difference in relative strength between any two clubs. Chelsea are averaging over 3 Goals For per game (the league average is 1.34; Man U and Arsenal are both at 2.29 ), and they have given up only 2 Goals Against in seven matches. They also are scoring 44% of the time when they put a shot on goal. The league average is currently 29% (historically in the EPL, a SOG results in a goal about 20% of the time). That's a huge advantage over other clubs and a measure of both the quality of chances Chelsea are creating and how efficient they are--that is, they don't need nearly as many chances as other clubs in order to put the ball in the net (how many strikers would have converted the chance Drogba did against Arsenal last Sunday?). You can look at all the numbers here. The bottom line is that we think the gap between Chelsea and the rest of the league, including that between Chelsea and the top clubs, is much greater than it was last year. If they can maintain this level of play for another 7 or so fixtures, we honestly don't think anyone will be able to come close to them this year in the Premiership.

Down table we'd point out just a few things. First, we've got Blackpool just south of mid-table, and we think that's where they belong. But their LM tells us that their 10 points, although certainly a big surprise, are not a fluke--as their win at Anfield proved. On Saturday the Seasiders looked great and played organized and attack-minded football. And they're overall production thus far has them out of the relegation zone--where most pundits, including us, put them at the start of the season. Given the fact they've played five out of their first seven games on the road suggests that barring injury they have a good chance of sticking.

We've also got Everton well out of the relegation zone, suggesting that results finally might start coming for the Toffees and soon. Last year they started slowly and then steadily climbed the table. Their rate of overall production suggests this year could be similar. The results haven't been there, but they've been playing decent football.

Newcastle is slightly better than they look in the official standings. And we think they, too, will start to move up closer to where they belong--mid-table and out of danger of dropping. West Brom we'll continue to monitor. They're 6th in the standings and 7th in our rankings, suggesting that their points are no fluke. However, everyone in the preseason had them dropping, and it will be interesting to see how they do over the next five or so fixtures. Perhaps one of the stories in the league this year is going to be the resilience of the newly promoted. We'll see.

Finally, Wolves are going down. Go put money on it. But what about Liverpool? We're not about to predict that the Reds will be in a relegation fight come March and April, nor do we think they won't move up table. However, make no mistake about it, they have played horribly over the first 7 games, suggesting that they're lucky to have the points they do and not that they've been unlucky. In other words, the numbers make it clear that the dearth of points for the Scousers are no fluke--the production, the effort, just hasn't been there, and the Reds are exactly where they should be in the table--on the bottom.

Luchametric English Premier League 2010-2011 Preview...of Sorts [updated]

2010-08-12T20:16:00.056-04:00

Final 2009-10 EPL Luchametric Power Rankings

By MJD

The EPL Resumes play in earnest on Saturday, and we at the Luchametric Institute rejoice in the return of early-Saturday-morning football.

To the left are the final Power Rankings from last season. As a measure of where the teams are at the start of this year, however--they are fairly unhelpful. As a general rule in sports ranking systems and prediction, the previous season's standings and performances are poor predictors of the subsequent season's performance. But they at least provide us with a sense of how things stacked up at the end of last year, and so offer a baseline for evaluating to what extent, if any, the clubs have improved or slid back. Here are just a few observations as we look forward to Saturday's fixtures.

Our Power Rankings did not penalize Pompey for going belly-up financially. And in our rankings, they were not the worst team in the league--that honor went to Hull. But as has been pointed out by other observers, there were other teams that might just have easily gone down if not for some good fortune here and there. Wigan, Wolves, West Ham and even Bolton were all in danger of dropping at some point, and this suggests that at least one of these four teams will be facing a relegation battle in the Spring.

In our view, Blackpool will be this year's Burnley--Hello! Goodbye!. And although we expect some entertaining football out of the Tangerines, who just signed four young players, their chances of staying up are slim. The signings suggest Blackpool see this year as an opportunity to develop the club in the long term. Note that the Tangerines finished sixth last season in the Championship, and only made it to promotion as a result of a playoff. We think they're very much out of their league.

West Brom's chances of staying up are only slightly better, but look for the baggies to be tough at home, as all indications are there will be some defensive if not completely negative football (depending on your perspective) played at The Hawthorns under the guidance of Roberto di Matteo.

Newcastle, however, will be shooting for mid-table this season, and they have a strong enough club to do it. The year spent down in the Championship gave them an opportunity to reorganize financially and in the clubhouse. We see them being similar to Stoke and Sunderland--solid, mid-table, average.

This leaves our final relegation team to come from among West Ham, Wigan, Wolves and Bolton. West Ham has serious questions in the clubhouse and in the front office. They need to get their finances straightened out and soon. We like Wolves' chances to stick given Mick McCarthy's proven ability to find line-ups and tactics that earn points, including resting players in games when the odds are longest against them (against Man U last year) to insure points are earned when chances to earn them are more reasonable (against Bolton about a week later). Wigan, however, is in trouble. They finished just above relegation last year, and they've lost far too many players. In all honesty, they belong in the Championship. Which is where we think they will be next season. Our bottom feeders this season: 20. Blackpool, 19. West Brom 18. Wigan.

At the top of the table, it's the usual suspects. If Arsenal matures and stays healthy, they are capable of challenging for the league title. There is much talk about Chelsea being a bit long in the tooth, but we think rumors of their demise are smack. Unfortunately, both Chelsea and the Gunners will have to keep pace with Man U, who looked deep and deadly in the Community Shield. When Sir Alex sent in three subs at the start of the second half, and the three were Berbatov, Chicharito and Nani, one could not help but marvel at just how deep are the Red Devils. As such, we regret to predict that both the Gunners and the Blues will be chasing Man U this season. We'll see.

The rest of the field really comes down to Man City, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton. We see Spurs dropping a bit from last year's form. Redknapp recently complained that the club needed to act during the current transfer window if they hoped to make a run further up the table, and on top of the pressures of the EPL, the team is in the Champions League. We don't think that Spurs are deep enough to survive a prolonged competition in Europe AND improve on last year's record in the league; nor do we think their back line will be able to shut down the other top clubs enough to earn many points from Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea, and Man City, which they'll need to do to make any headway.

There is trepidation and hope at Anfield, but we don't see Liverpool challenging seriously for anything more than fourth place. Torrez is simply not the player the world thinks he is, and Hodgson could be out of his league as manager--despite his stints at Inter (over 10 years ago).

The real beast this year is Man City, who added to an already-loaded club, signing David Silva off an outstanding World Cup for World Champions Spain. We think Adebayor represents everything that is wrong with contemporary sport---arrogant, talented, lazy, obnoxious--and there are even some signs he might not start alongside Tevez in Mancini's XI. Regardless, we think City will be better than last year.

As such our top four are: 1. Man U 2. Gunners 3. Man City 4. Chelsea. We, of course, could be dead wrong. The one thing we feel very confident about is that Arsenal, City and Chelsea will be scrapping for second place this season, with Spurs dropping in to fifth.

One last point, you need to watch the transfer news every day, as a single big signing could change things. Chelsea is now (Friday the 13th) reportedly close to signing Neymar, the Wunderkind for Santos in Brazil who looked incredible against the USMNT on Tuesday. Should they sign the young and highly-promising star we'd think it would be worth at least three points in the standings by season's end. Last year, Chelsea beat out Man U by only one point. And this just in, (seriously, it came up on my browser as I was updating this) Man City have just signed Balotelli from Inter. Wow. So it goes...

Below are some links worth checking out if you haven't already. They are in no particular order, other than that we think World Football Daily is the best source out there for US fans of the beautiful game. But we also like the others very, very much. Hagalo Villa! Te Amo Gunners!

Klinsman for Bradley: Change We Can Believe In

2010-08-11T10:11:00.002-04:00

By MJD

Last night's dismantling of a veteran US squad by a young Brazilian team bursting with talent proved just how deep Brazil is and just how badly the US needs a new coach and a new direction.

Brazil advanced further than did the US in this summer's World Cup, and their coach, Dunga, was fired. The USSF has held on to Bradley at least through last night's friendly, but the performance of the US teams begs the following question: why? Alexi Lalas is not our favorite commentator. It's one thing to spout your mouth off and be opinionated. We like that in Maradona because the man is flat-out hilarious...and a genius. But it's another to run your mouth and repeatedly make stupid and uninformed comments that are mere opinions--and get paid for it. And yet Lalas got it right last night when he pointed out that the USSF should have fired Bradley after the World Cup. Doing so would have allowed his replacement to begin the next phase of US soccer development at the national level against Brazil.

That the USSF did not at least served the following purposes: it showed just how unimaginative Bradley is as a tactician and just how desperately the US needs a new vision--perhaps a decidedly Germanic vision.

Running out a 4-4-1-1 for the first time this summer looked brilliant in the first ten minutes or so, as the US dominated the young Brazilians and Donovan especially looked outstanding. Putting the best player the US has produced in the center of the field was reaping great dividends, as John Harkas excitedly pointed out.

But once the youngsters for La Samba settled down they proceeded to dismantle the US, sending ball after ball down the US's left side, and the 2-0 score at half time could easily have been 3-0 or worse. And, once again, there were the usual problems for the US: our midfield was unorganized and outgunned, and our back four looked completely out of their league. The Brazilians sent wave after wave at our back line and yours truly completely lost track of how many give-and-gos and through-balls the US was giving up. It was a nightmare.

At what point does a coach alter not only his team's tactical organization to achieve better results but its makeup and vision? Harkas pointed out that while the Brazilians had been able to play a bunch of new players to see who might possibly make it into the XI for the next South American Championship and eventually the next World Cup, Bradley ran out essentially the same team that had played so unevenly in South Africa. More importantly, other than putting Donovan up top and in the middle, Bradley showed no new ideas whatsoever, as if South Africa had been a tremendous leap forward for US football.

Let's be clear. Bradley is the man who led the US to the final of the Confederations Cup last year, to the top of the CONCACAF during World Cup qualifying, and to the final 16 in South Africa. But we think he's taken the USA as far as he's capable of taking it.

In our view, we have the players to do better. As such, it's not that we lack talent, it's that whatever talent we do have is not being utilized to its fullest. Donovan and Bradley (the player, not the coach) are outstanding midfielders who can start in the top divisions in Europe. We have depth at keeper and, finally, even at striker (Buddle, Altidore, Gomez, Findlay). Gomez in particular is just the first of what will prove to be a whole slew of Mexican-American strikers in the years to come, as the sons of immigrants (legal and extra-legal) grow up in the US and choose to play for their homeland and not return to Mexico. In fact, we think once Gomez and his brethren come of age en masse, the US will finally have arrived internationally, with truly International-class keepers, midfielders and FINALLY fast, skilled strikers.

We have seen no indication over the last 12 months that Bradley (the coach) understands any of this, or that he understands how successful tactics are a direct function of the skills of the players on the field and the game at hand, i.e., the challenge posed by the opposition.

For example, a 5-3-2 with Edu playing just in front of the back four in a central position, with a midfield of Bradley, Donovan (middle) and Feilhaber with Atlidore and Buddle up top would have given us a five-man back line with a flexible midfield allowing either/both Donovan and Bradley to push up. We certainly missed Dempsey last night. A midfield of Dempsey, Donovan and Bradley with Jozey and Edson up top would have packed a punch, and the five-man back line, with Edu pushing up into a holding-midfield position could perhaps have done better than the 4-4-1-1 did last night. Finally, the 5-man back line can quickly morph into a 5-4-1 or a 5-4-1 with a diamond in the middle if need be. The point is, ANYTHING was better than what passed for tactics last night.

There was talk at half time by Lalas about Jurgen Klinsman coming in to take over for Bradley. And this morning on Sky Sports News, Bradley was described as the "leading candidate" for the vacancy at Aston Villa.

Klinsman coming in to reshape the Yanks and Bradley graduating to greener pastures, the first US manager to ever manage in the EPl, would be a win-win for US football. Let's hope it happens.

Luchametric MLS Handicapping: Dallas and Seattle at Home

2010-08-04T09:43:00.001-04:00

By MJD

A lot of MLS matches between Thursday and Sunday. Some should be very entertaining. The Crew at Philly should be quite good given the atmosphere at PPL Park, as should be New York and Henry at Chicago.

For punters, however, there are really no good values. The two best bets are Dallas at home over Philly, and Seattle at home over Houston.

Philly will have played the Crew on Thursday before flying to Dallas. Look for them to get trounced in the Texas heat playing with only two days rest against a Dallas team that is currently third in our Power Rankings and which has won or drawn 88% of its home games this season.

At slightly-less-than-even odds, Seattle at home against down-table Houston is, dare we say it, a very SOUND bet. LOL! Get it? "Sounders" and "sound" bet! That's freaking gold Jerry! Gold!

Anyway, that's all we got this week. Look for our inaugural 2010-2011 EPL recommendations sometime next week. Meanwhile, dig on this.

Crew Houston Post-Game Quickie

2010-07-25T08:58:00.004-04:00

Our Number 9

By MJD

We're going to call RW's lineup a 4-4-2. It didn't look like a diamond in the midfield to us, as the boys played rather flat in the middle. Also, GBS dropped back pretty early on, so although the shape was sort-of a 4-4-2, the team didn't play like it for most of the game once Schelotto's instincts took over.
Speaking of which, why does RW insist on pushing GBS up top? He didn't contribute much tonight and looked frustrated. He needs to play back and be given free reign to roam the middle of the field. Playing Renteria as the lone striker seems like a no-brainer to us.
Renteria is big and tough so why try to draw fouls? We love him up top though. Neither NY nor HOU could really handle him and he draws a lot of attention creating space for other players. Let's hope he keeps his starting job when Lenhart gets back.
We like Ekpo on the left. He really held that side of the field down and was unselfish and creative during the attack phase. He plays smart and has skills. We think both he and Renteria have shown they belong in the XI.
We think this might have been the best Crew lineup of the year; granted, we were playing an inferior opponent. But if GBS could have been dropped back in the center from the start, we think we would have been tough and organized and dangerous.
Rogers looks out of position on the right. Not to keep hammering him, but sometimes he looks like he doesn't have a clue what he's doing or supposed to be doing. In fact, both he and GBS seemed out of position. Against teams like LA and RSL, the team can't afford not to be getting full production out of each and every player.
Houston is a mess. They've got some dangerous players who can attack but they simply aren't as organized as the Crew nor are they as big physically, which we thought was causing them problems (three yellow cards, for example). It will take a miracle for them to make the playoffs, nor should they unless they show marked improvement.
I'm not sure we were running up the score, but the third goal certainly will be remembered by HOU and their fans.
Te Amo Columbus! Columbus Te Amo! 'Till I die!

Crew vs Houston Statistical Comparison: Dynamo Dangerous on Attack; Porous on Defense

2010-07-24T09:34:00.004-04:00

By MJD
As we indicated yesterday, the percentages favor the Crew heavily in today's match against the Dynamo. A closer look at the numbers reveals some nuances worth mentioning.

First, the Dynamo are dangerous on attack. Both they and the Crew score about 1.3 GF/GM. But our measure of Quality Shots on Goal, which essentially measures how much better than the league average is a team's ratio of goals to SOGs shows that Houston is substantially ahead of the Crew. Houston scores a goal 38% of the time when they manage to create a SOG. The Crew's percentage is 30%; the league average is 27%.

Houston currently has five players who have scored 3 goals or more this year; and 4 players with double-digit shot totals. And Brian Ching is tied with Brad Davis as the team's top scorer with 3 goals each. Over the last four games, Ching has played with 3 different players up top--a mark of depth and/or of a team looking for answers given the absence of Davis (he injured his hip flexor but as far as we can determine, should start tonight). If Davis resumes his duties as the attacking center-mid, the Crew will have to defend sharply to avoid falling behind, especially given the fact the Hejduk is out with a red card suspension and Carroll is out with an injury. It will be interesting to see if Warzycha goes with Renteria and Ekpo rather than with his more traditional and conservative XI which includes Gaven, Rogers and Garey. We'd love to at least see Renteria start if Rogers gets yet still another chance to show he can play consistently enough to start every match on the left wing. Regardless, with Davis back, the Dynamo's attack will be balanced and formidable. They are, however, winless in their last six games.

The real problem for Houston is their defending. They give up nearly 1.4 GA/GM. What's interesting is that they don't give up more SHTA or SOGA than the Crew--they actually give up fewer. But they've allowed far more goals. One explanation is that teams are able to create more QUALITY chances against them than is typical in the league. Another explanation is that their keeper, Pat Onstad, stinks. His save percentage is around 62%. Our man Hesmer is at 76%. Hagado C-Bus! Te amo Crew! 'Til I die!

Luchametric MLS Handicapping: Crew and RSL to both Win at Home

2010-07-23T11:34:00.002-04:00

By MJD
We've modified our handicapping table to now include the actual win, loss and draw percentages of each team. This allows you to compare the teams not only in terms of the LM power score, but also compare the probability of a home win, away win, or draw offered by the books, to the actual performance of each team thus far.

So, this weekend, the books have the Crew at -120 and Houston at +400. This means that the books are giving the black and gold a 55% chance of a win, Houston a 20% chance of a win, and the draw a 27% chance probability.

As the chart indicates, however, the Crew this season have won 78% of their home games, Houston have lost 57% of their road games, and the Crew have NEVER drawn at home.

This means we think the draw is the least likely bet in this match. More importantly, we think the Crew to win is a great value bet. The books have lowered the chance of Crew win by over 20%.. We think they're on crack. Take the Crew to win and head to the Nordecke. Hagalo Columbus! 'Til I Die!

We also very much like RSL at home. We think the numbers again speak for themselves.

Luchametric MLS Power Rankings Updated: Dallas you say?

2010-07-23T11:05:00.003-04:00

Current Luchametric MLS Power Rankings

By MJD
Dallas sits atop our Power Rankings. We've spent the last hour or so trying to figure out if there is a mistake somewhere. There isn't. Before you blow a gasket in disbelief, note that the LM is based on production per game. And if you compare Dallas' PTS/GM to the Crew, RSL and LA, the four teams are much closer than might appear just from looking at the single table. Plus you have to factor in that Dallas has the best recent form, which we're perhaps weighing too heavily. We need more time to look at that possibility.

The R-Squared when we regress the LM to point production in the league currently stands at .76. This means that our metric explains 76% of the differences among the teams in terms of point production. That's pretty good, but not as good as the R-squared for 08 and 09 combined, which is .83. And our R-squared for point production in the EPL is around .90. So, we're still examining why the MLS metric is not as sharp as the one we developed for the EPL (both are virtually the same).

Further, we'd point out that Dallas has only lost 13% of its games this year. This puts them second in the league behind LA at 11%, and makes them over twice as good as RSL (26%) and well below the league average of 38%.n They currently lead the league in draws. In short, they are very, very, very tough to beat. They have drawn or won 87% of the games they have played thus far. Our metric treats draws and performance in draws as significant evidence of a team's power--what we call "production." The American proclivity to ignore draws as nothing more than "kissing your sister," we think ignores what draws tell us about a team. As such, Dallas gets more credit for how well it plays in wins, losses AND draws, which probably accounts for their place in the standings. If they can maintain their rate of production, they should start getting some clean wins. But it could also be that they've peaked at mid-season, and by the end of the year will drop back down in our rankings. We'll see.

Wanted: Nordecke Chant Recordings--Hagado Columbus! Do it!

2010-07-19T20:17:00.005-04:00

By MJD

We were excited to find the following site:

http://www.fanchants.com/football-team/columbus-crew/

which is one of the best, if not THE best collections of football chants on the web. But, alas, although the lyrics for Crew chants are well represented, there is only one recording of the Nordecke in full warble. Consider this a request to any and all of the Crew faithful to record and submit Crew chants pronto. Show the rest of MLS who rules.

In that spirit: here's a new one. You know the Seattle Sounders chant? See-aaaaaaaaaaaaaa-tle, Sounnnnnnnnnnnn-ders? Well here's one straight from the lab at the Luchametric institute:

Te Amo, Columbus, Te amo!

Tay-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe
Co-luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmm-bus
Tey-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe!

Over and over and over and over again. It's mesmerizing. Roughly translated: "I love you, Columbus, Columbus, I love you" Word! Or, alternatively:

Tay-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe
Co-luuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmmm-bus
Crewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

It's basically a variant of the chant sung by fans of Cruzeiro FC, which I listened to tonight while watching a replay of a Copa Libertadores match--a tourney, by the way, whose semi-finals are upcoming and should help ease the pain until the EPL starts up in mid-August. The chant sung by the Cruzeiro hoard was beautiful and made me an instant fan of La Bestia Negra! Azuis Celeste!

Hagado Columbus!

Crew Win with Luchametric Formation; Thierry Henry Gets What's Coming to Him

2010-07-17T22:43:00.012-04:00

Jack Ruby style, like a thief in the night, El Luchador tonight confronted the cheating Thierry Henry at Crew Stadium after the Red Bulls' humiliating defeat at the hands of the Black and Gold.

Robert Warzycha took the advice of the Luchametric Institute and played the 4-2-3-1 formation in the attacking phase with Renteria up top, and the Crew won handily 2-0 on goals from Renteria and Brian Carroll. Although they "lined up" in the 4-4-1-1 to start both halves, GBS played back deeper than in previous matches and Renteria was the lone marauding striker up front. And the starts by Expo and Renteria, as we had suggested, clearly gave the crew the attacking prowess they had been lacking.

But the highlight of the evening was when El Luchador spoke truth to power, made Mark McCullers' Security Forces and Columbus Police nervous, and scouted out The Cheater's location to charge in and achieve justice for the people of the Republic of Ireland. El Luchador did what any sensible football fan would do and called Henry out on his despicable handball that cost the Irish a place in the World Cup this year.

After France's disgraceful but predictable collapse in South Africa, Henry announced his signing with New York, and he flew to Columbus to witness his team lose to the Crew from a luxury box on the northwest corner of the stadium.

Thierry Henry: As a Frenchman, you know how to surrender. Go ahead and do so now. Based on what we saw from the Red Bulls tonight, even your cheating ways will not save you or your newly chosen comrades.

Hagalo Columbus! DO IT!

Columbus Crew Tactics: It's Time for a Change

2010-07-15T09:55:00.006-04:00

By MJD

A quick glance at the Crew lineups for the current MLS campaign reveals that Warzycha is in a rut. Let us tread carefully. RW is a solid manager; more importantly, he's our manager. And it's not that the Crew aren't doing well. It's just that they don't look like a championship club at this point. And if the record at football-lineups.com is to be believed, part of the problem, and certainly part of the blame for last night's loss to down-table Kansas City, must lie in the fact that the Crew have become woefully predictable.

The Crew have played a 4-4-1-1 each and every game this season, with relatively minor changes to the starters. And the 4-4-1-1 has its merits, which we've outlined in an earlier post. But we're starting to think that at this point in the season, fully half-way through the Crew's campaign, teams in the league have thoroughly scouted the Black and Gold and know too well how to defend against us. And it's also clear that although the typical starting lineup gives us strength in the midfield and keeps teams at bay (before last night's match our GA/GM was at .86), it sacrifices attack for caution. Fine. Warzycha is the coach and he gets paid to make the important decisions. We sincerely respect that.

But we could not help but notice last night that once the attacking subs got in the game, the Crew's energy level went up (understandably), and all of sudden we were swarming all over the KC goal. On some of the Crew discussion sites, notably Big Soccer, complaints about Schelotto's role in Warzycha's scheme have been around since the start of the season. Our view is that he's much better used held back, more like a traditional #10. And in Warzycha's 4-4-1-1, we think Schelotto is pushed up too far and is thus unable to function either as an effective forward/striker, OR as an effective attacking-mid ala World Champion Spain's Xavi. Last night, late in the match, Ekpo and Renteria were able to create havoc on the Wizards' left, and both showed great flashes of skill both shooting and setting up others. Plus, we love Renteria's size and his ability to serve as a target for the mids: a striker ala Drogba who can hold the ball, shoot, create. Forza Crew!

As such, here's our dream line-up, at least at home against inferior teams:

In our 4-2-3-1, Renteria moves up top and has license to roam laterally across the top of the Crew's shape. Rogers starts on the left and is a traditional winger. Ekpo starts on the right and can fly down the right side or move toward the center to create. Most importantly, Schelotto hangs back as a true center attacking-mid whose job is to create and destribute (ala Xavi), collecting and distributing the ball from his cruising ground in the middle of the field. Hejduk and Padula will push up as usual depending upon which flank the Crew's attack is building.

This is not a complicated schema. And it would do much to get the boys out of the rut they've fallen into, making them less predictable and more dangerous from the first minutes of the match rather than just the last 20 or so. Hagalo C-Bus! 'till I die...

Crew vs Wizards Postgame Quickie

2010-07-14T21:39:00.004-04:00

By MJD

Lenhart's one tough mofo.
The officiating blew.
The Crew needs to quit trying to draw calls, it's stupid and puts too much of the outcome of the game in the hands of a bunch of tools posing as professional referees.
When we put in our attacking subs late we lose our midfield.
There's no way we should lose to the likes of KC at home at this point in the season, Warzycha needs to get the boys' heads straight for bottom feeders like KC playing on the road after three straight losses.
We looked tired in the second half. Do we need a new fitness coach? Too much partying during the World Cup break? US Open Cup games taking their toll?
Decent crowd for a mid-week game against the likes of KC. Buck a brat; dollar draft.
Renteria and Ekpo deserve more playing time, they have more technical prowess up front than Gaven or Rogers. It would require a different tactical approach, but RW's current starting formation, although not negative football, is too conservative. Put Renteria up top and give Ekpo a start in attacking mid. We'd lose Rogers' speed, but tonight he didn't do dookie. We might lose something in the midfield, but if you're not going to open things up and attack at home when are you? How about Ekpo for Gaven and Renteria for Garey to start? You'd then have Rogers' speed on the left wing and Expo and Renteria and GBS' technical and creative abilities up front.
Columbus 'till I die.

Manu Chao on Diego Maradona

2010-07-13T21:38:00.002-04:00

Manu discusses the first time he met Maradona, why he is the greatest player ever, and the meaning behind the song "La Vida Tómbola" which was featured in the documentary film Maradona by Serbian filmmaker Emir Kusturica"

"It is not easy being Diego Maradona."

World Cup Semifinals Handicapping: Party Like its 1974

2010-07-05T09:37:00.006-04:00

By MJD

We don't see Germany trouncing yet another strong world football power, as Spain will match up against Der Mannschaft much better than did the tactic-less, unorganized Argentinians, but we still think the Germans will overpower the Spanish over 90 minutes. The Germans' ability to patiently and effectively defend and then burst forward en masse with precision makes them a very tough opponent for the Red Fury. Spain will dominate possession but will find few cracks in the German Wall--of course, if they defend well, they only need one crack, as David Villa continues to demonstrate with aplomb. But physically the Spanish will have a hard time. Look for Spain to earn many set-piece goal-scoring opportunities as Iniesta and Villa get pushed and shoved to the ground--oh, and the Spanish will certainly flop too if not dive outright. Regardless, Spain will need a clean sheet or close to it if they hope to get through to the final.

The disgraceful way Uruguay made it past Ghana has been much-written about, and so we won't add our two pesos. But the soccer-gods are very angry; and the Orange are now an instrument of divine retribution (in addition to being a very, very good side). Netherlands 3 Uruguay 1.

World Cup Quarterfinals Handicapping: Favorites...or Germany

2010-06-29T20:51:00.010-04:00

At this point in the world's greatest sporting event, there are no bargains to be had. We look into the Luchametric crystal ball and see only favorites...except Germany...except the odds at this point are lame. If you can get odds at +350 or above on Deutschland, go for it. Otherwise, even though we absolutely can see the organized, workaholic young Germans following Ozil all the way to the final and the world championship, the early odds don't make it a tantalizing punt. In fact, the books have everything in their favor going into the tournament's final seven matches.

Can the Dutch beat Brazil in a one-off? Of course. Portugal showed that if you fall back and defend your half, Dunga and Co. run out of ideas and have to resort to the defenders making mistakes and/or their skill and athleticism coming through over 90 minutes. Regardless, the rewards aren't worth the risk. Plus, Brazil at slightly better than one-to-one odds is always a good bet.

Neither Uruguay nor Ghana will be in the final. But they could easily tie over 90 minutes. If punt you must, then punt the draw on this one, or the under. Ghana is young but athletic and fairly well organized; and Uruguay is organized and has some talent--but it's either Uruguay or the draw on this one. Given how cautiously Uruguay has been willing to play, we like the draw.

Argentina is our favorite to win it all at this point, but the Germans are fully capable of a disciplined and systematic 2-0 win. Their defense, combined with a deadly counter attack, are formidable. Their absolute destruction of England showed that not only are they in the running this year, but that the German Youth are in line for the both the European championship in 2012 and the WC in 2014. Damn. But La Albiceleste are in fine form and could give the German's fits. Both teams will respect each other, and if you think either squad has fate on its side, go for it. Team Nordecke Luchador feels this is Maradona's year to secure his place in football history in a way The Chosen One could only dream (Mourinho couldn't play for shite.)

Finally, the very early odds on Spain are irrelevant. The Red Fury will dismantle Paraguay. Spain versus Argentina will be epic. The winner will face La Samba. Wow. An all-Latin final; possibly an all-South American final. Imponente! Que barato! Hagalo mis hermanos! Hagalo!

El Clandestino, El Vision and El Escheleto Combine on the Attack to Help Make it 2-0 Columbus over DC United

2010-06-26T23:19:00.001-04:00

Three New Characters made their way onto the Luchametric scene on this epic day that also saw the Crew predictably trounce DC United.

Clandestino represents the North Side. El Escheleto bares his bones. And El Vision is elusive and effusive as always.

The Red White and Blue fell short this day, but the Black and Gold were never in doubt.

Hagalo Columbus! Do It!

MLS Power Rankings Updated: World Cup and MLS Handicapping

2010-06-25T12:03:00.001-04:00

Certainly, all eyes are on tomorrow's match between the Yanks and Ghana, with the clash between England and Germany a close second. But the MLS picks up again starting tonight, so we've updated the entire blog (while watching the highly disappointing match between Brazil and Portugal).

The MLS Power Rankings have LA and RSL at the top with the Crew, Colorado, Dallas and Toronto rounding out the top of our table. The drop-off below Toronto is enough to suggest that the top six right now are the cream of the league. It will be very interesting to see how the long lay off for the league affects play. Teams will surely be rusty, and so matches could be sloppy and the results unpredictable. To the right are some recommendations for punters.

This weekend's World Cup Matches will surely be outstanding football. Our predictions are limited. We certainly like Uruguay over South Korea, but the odds could be better.

Emotions are too high for the US match for El Chupa to be even remotely objective. The odds and probabilities seem spot on, and with extra time and penalty kicks now in play, teams that are relatively equal could play cautiously late in the second half. This perhaps makes fulltime draws more likely, including the US match. But again, our hopes are too high and our hearts are full--so we demur.

The English psyche is fraught with memories of losing to Germany in PKs in big tournaments. We think both teams are beatable, and given England's performance in group play give a slight nod to Germany, especially with Mesut Ozil up front, whom we quite like. However, we can see both teams playing cautiously, especially in the second half. If punt you must on this one, punt the draw.

Finally, perhaps the most anticipated match from a pure love of the beautiful game standpoint, we have Argentina v Mexico. Argentina is heavily favored, and we give them the nod as our pick of the weekend's matches. But we think the odds on Mexico are highly skewed, and if you're looking to slap down 10 bucks for the hell of it, you can't do any better this weekend than dropping the price of a few pints on Mexico, who have been playing well since the pre-WC friendlies. We don't think a Mexican hat dance over Messi and Maradona Inc is probable, but it's certainly possible. Arriba Mexico! Our brothers in the CONCACAF!

Luchametric World Cup Handicapping: Brazil to Samba Over Portugal

2010-06-24T09:10:00.006-04:00

By MJD
Our predictions for today's matches are to your right. Our predictions for tomorrow's matches are above. We like Brazil for both its potential as a great match to watch and for its value.

First of all, in case you missed it, Portugal and Brazil have a rather long history, Brazil gaining its independence from Portugal in 1822 (but not from the Portuguese royal family) and then eventually becoming a republic in 1889. Slavery was only abolished in Brazil in 1888, and there are still racial tensions in Brazilian society today, given its inherently mestizo social fabric (Portuguese/European; African; South American Indian). As for Portugal, let's just say it has a certain attitude toward it's former colony, typical of former imperial states that have seen better days. Plus, um, Portugal has its own inherent racial attitudes typical of former imperial states that have seen better days.

Needless to say, these team will both want to beat each other....very, very badly. It is essentially a World Cup Derby, which is one reason the books have given such good odds for Brazil. Even without Kaka, the opportunity to bet on Brazil in a World Cup match with better-than-even odds is hard to pass up, and we think this match offers great value to punters, with the books undervaluing Brazil's superiority over Ronaldo and Co by as much as 7%.

Yes, a draw would send both teams through, but we just can't imagine either team playing for the draw from the start--too much history, too much pride, too much talent on the field. And Portugal could be knocked out by a loss combined with a big Ivory Coast win. You think Brazil has any incentive to do just that?

In short, take Brazil and enjoy some outstanding football. Do it.

As for Chile vs Spain, we think it's best to avoid this other post-colonial derby, as Chile is very tough and organized on defense and fully capable of stifling the Spanish. Chile needs only a draw but a win sends them through, while Spain absolutely must win if they want to guarantee passage to the knock-out phase. The likelihood of a Swiss win means their will be pressure on both teams and passions will run high. Wouldn't Chile love to knock Spain out of the tournament? And failing to advance to the final 16 would be a humiliation of epic proportions for the talented Spanish side. We think Portugal is a paper tiger and Brazilian skill will prevail over 90 minutes, but this other match fraught by history is too close to call.

Luchametric World Cup Handicapping: Yanks and Argentina Best Bets

2010-06-22T09:22:00.004-04:00

By MJD

Barely in time for today's early matches, we give you our updated WC 2010 suggestions.

There are no real value bets today or tomorrow. But we think Argentina over Greece and tomorrow's Yanks vs Algeria offer the highest probabilities and the highest pay outs.

Notice we've added draws to the probabilities and we have added a column indicating what each team needs out of the match in order to advance (or in some cases, to have any chance at all to advance given other results).

Luchametric World Cup Handicapping: Our Upset? Paraguay Over the Azzurri

2010-06-09T22:17:00.006-04:00

By MJD and El Luchador

All eyes at Nordecke Luchador are on Gooch's knee, Donovan's mental stability, and the back four (who would have thought at this point we'd be worry about our defense and not our strikers?). But in fervid and besotted anticipation of South Africa 2010 we offer our meager advice for several opening matches at this year's world cup.

All US fans of the beautiful game look to Saturday's match against England with bowel-shaking anticipation. We firmly believe the US is being given short shift in this match. Best odds have the US at a mere 13% chance of a win. This is abject nonsense. We set this match at a solid 50% England win; 25% US win; 25% draw. But, we advise American punters to keep their hands in their pockets. A US win is just not a good bet--but we absolutely do not count our Yanks out. Further, English confidence is misplaced. They are overlooking a team filled with solid professional talent well-seasoned in Europe's top leagues. And Buddle, Gomez, and Findlay have demonstrated that North American soccer can no longer be discounted out-of-hand

We like Paraguay over Italy as our upset. We looked closely at Denmark over Holland and Uruguay over France, but we think that France's talent is being overlooked by a world press hungry for stories and that the Dutch without Robben are still one of the top five teams in the world. Still, we think these will be great matches to watch.

Finally, we can't help but conclude that the German machine will roll over the Aussies (Oi!) and that Argentina will win handily over Nigeria in spite of Maradona's abject freaking lunacy. Lastly, we see Cameroon perhaps falling behind Japan early but coming back to win pulling away.

Luchametric MLS Weekend Fixtures Handicapping: Crew, Houston, RSL, and San Jose

2010-05-28T14:20:00.010-04:00

By MJD

Nordecke Luchador has evolved over the last year into its own unique brand. From the heady daze of Gonzo Crew fanaticism, we now offer EPL and MLS statistical analysis, EPL, MLS and World Cup handicapping as well as tactical insight into the beautiful game.

In the spirit of Kaizen, the Japanese virtue of "continuous improvement," we offer our latest data chart for our loyal readers.

To the left are this weekend's fixtures in the MLS. For each match we provide the moneyline and the decimal odds. Next, we provide our readers with how these odds translate into probabilities. For example, in the first fixture, D.C. is being given +175 or a 36% chance at a home win; Chivas is being given +192 or a 34% chance of an away win. IMPORTANT! Punters should always remember that these percentages should be compared to the historical probabilities that 50% of all professional matches end in a home win; 25% in an away win; and 25% in a draw--unless there is a substantial difference in team strengths.

So, for this fixture, the books have lowered the chance of a D.C. home win by 14 percentage points and raised the chance of a Chivas road win by 9 percentage points. The chance for a draw is thus around 30%.

But we go even further. The fourth column tells the prospective punter the percentage payout of their wager. Thus, a successful bet on D.C. will earn you 175% of your initial bet; a successful bet on Chivas will earn you 192%. So a $10 bet on D.C. gets you 17.50. Nice.

But wait! We then provide you with our own analysis of the value of the wager. As a general rule of thumb, smart punters should compare the probability offered by the books to their own estimation of the probability of bet being successful. Continuing with our example, we need to ask ourselves the following: "Ok, all things being equal, the home team should win 50% of the time. However, D.C. is a weaker team than Chivas. That means that the chance of D.C. winning is less than 50%. The books say that it's as bad as 36%. Do I think its worse or better than 36%?"

Answer? If you think there is a 5% or higher difference between the probability offered by the books and your own independent estimation of the probability of a team winning, then that bet is most likely what the professional punters call "a value bet." Here's why.

If the books say D.C. has only a 36% chance of winning, but you think their chance is actually 41% or higher, then the amount of money the books are offering you is actually higher than it "should" be. Remember, the higher the probability of a win, the lower the books pay out.

Further, a value bet is one where the amount of risk is "worth" the potential payout. Bookies want to offer you less money for your risk than is "fair" or "real." So, if you can find a match where you believe the books have it wrong and the actual probability of your team winning is higher than they've determined, then you've found a bet that will pay out more for your risk than the books would pay out if they had gotten the odds right in the first place. In D.C.'s case, the books have set the odds at 36% and are offering you a payout of 175%. If the books thought the probability was 41% or greater, they would pay winners less than 175% As such, if you've decided that D.C. actually has a 41% chance or higher (let's face it, Chivas isn't very good) then taking D.C. to win at home would be a value bet.

But what does Nordecke Luchador think about this match?

Our final column provides you with our advice for every match this weekend. Our recommendations are based on A) our determination of the value of the odds being offered; and B) our usual statistical comparison of the two clubs including the Luchametric power rankings. If we recommend a team, we think its a value bet with a high probability relative to the risk. This week, we think C-Bus, Houston, RSL and San Jose all fit the bill. And we think the D.C. v Chivas match should be avoided like the plague.

And remember, we don't recommend parlays ever. Do your homework and pick your spots. For example, Donovan is up with the USMNT. We think that makes the Crew an even more valuable bet against LA than the numbers alone might suggest. However, Houston is being given a 68% chance of a win, and we think it's definitely even higher. Indeed, this match probably represents the bet with the highest probability and the lowest risk of the weekend. But the probability of both Houston and the Crew winning in a parlay is a rather low 30%. If you bump the Crew's probability up to 51%, the parlay would still only be at 35%. The probability of Houston, the Crew AND San Jose all winning? 17%. RSL actually represents the wager with the highest value (in our view) as the payout is 69% on your wager (compared to 46% for Houston) and we think the probability of a RSL win could be as much as 10 percentage points higher than what the books have it at. That's some sweet action.

Finally, it's important to note that we've excluded draws in our chart because draws never, ever offer high percentage probabilities nor value bets. That's a maxim of betting on soccer we've learned from our secondary research (seriously). And you can take that to the bank. C-Bus 'till I die!

Luchametric USMNT Tactical Analysis: What to Look for Against Turkey

2010-05-27T16:32:00.013-04:00

By MJD
Alright, so now we know which Yanks will be heading to South Africa, but what should we expect to see tactically, hopefully starting Saturday against Turkey?

We've looked through the lineups at football-lineups.com for both the 2009 Confederations Cup and the 2010 World Cup Qualifiers, and what follows is our tentative projection of what to expect from Bradley in the two upcoming friendlies and against England on June 12th. We went with the above two sets of matches as we think the Gold Cup in 2009 and the various friendlies over the last year don't accurately represent our best XI (in fact, we think our B-team was a grave disappointment in virtually every match it played).

The first graphic (above) is our prediction if Bradley runs out a standard 4-4-2. In such games, he has historically put Dempsey and Donovan on the right and left flanks respectively. Clark and Bradley are the two most common holding/defensive mids in Bradley's various lineups. We think Altidore is a sure starter, and we're going with Gomez up front with him. Why? We think the combination of Altidore's physicality and ability to hold the ball combined with Gomez's speed and technique will give the US two very different looks at striker--which we dig like dirty rice. Note that Goodson could start for Onyewu and Bocanegra for Bornstein. In our review of Bradley's lineups, the back four were very frequently changed up and moved around. We don't think that will change. If Gooch isn't ready by June 12th, you could very well see Bornstein, Bocanegra, DeMerit and Spector filling out the back four.

Next, Bradley has also used a rather uncommon 4-2-2-2. In the graphic to the right, you'll see that in this schema, Bradley and Clark drop back in front of the back four, and Donovan and Dempsey switch sides. Donovan played mostly on the left with Everton this winter and spring, and this may affect Bradley's tactical decisions. Regardless, we've still got Gomez and Altidore up top. At Puebla, Gomez was typically the lone striker, and for the US Altidore has played on the both the right and the left, so it will be interesting to see how Bradley decides to use the two forwards (if he goes with Gomez and not Buddle or Findlay).

Finally, we came up with our own lineup, featuring the return of the prodigal son, DaMarcus Beasley. He's been in our doghouse since the last World Cup, and he's been in Bradley's for about a year, but he looked very, very good against the Czechs. The last graphic is our hypothetical XI with Beasley in the mix--in this case, a 4-4-1-1.

In this formation, we put Beasley on the right wing, moving Dempsey over next to Donovan with Clark as the sole defensive mid. Up top we push Altidore ahead of Gomez, allowing Gomez space to create. We think this is a great attacking formation for the Yanks. We look forward to seeing what Bradley's actually going to do with Beasley. For example, Bease could replace Clark or Bradley in the 4-4-2 or the 4-2-2-2. Also, we haven't even considered the option of pushing Dempsey or Donovan up top as one or both strikers, which would give the US another and very different look.

Needless to say, it's nice to see that the US has some very tantalizing options. Word.

MLS Power Rankings Updated: The Big Two

2010-05-25T09:01:00.002-04:00

By MJD

I've been out of the office for the last week but have finally had a chance to catch up on things in the MLS. We suggested in an earlier post that MLS parity might be a thing of the past, and the updated numbers continue to support that claim.

Both LA and the Crew enjoy a substantial advantage in the LM and especially in their respective Z-scores relative to the rest of the league. Note also that there seems to be a large number of middling teams and three to five absolute bottom feeders. Here's how we'd divide up the league:

The Big Two: LA and C-Bus
The Great Pretenders: RSL, SJO.
The Mighty Middle: Dallas, Colorado, Houston, Chicago, Toronto, New York, Seattle, Chivas, KC
The Vanquished if Not Relegated: Philly and D.C.

You can slice and dice it however you'd like, but there clearly has been a shift in the relative strengths of the different clubs. Finally, the West continues to dominate the rankings and the single table. Six out of the eight top teams in the LM are from the West; as are five out of the top eight in the single table. Again, it ain't about the two conferences, which are a joke, it just adds to the overall impression that the era of parity in MLS is over.

Crew vs Chivas USA Statistical Breakdown

2010-05-15T08:22:00.001-04:00

By MJD

Yesterday we gave you a breakdown of the Crew's tactics, today we give you a quick statistical comparison of the two clubs.

This game is not a sure 3 PTS for C-Bus, but it is 3 PTS the Crew certainly should earn. Last year Chivas USA had only 6 draws, lowest among the 8 playoff teams. This year they have 3 wins and 4 losses and only 1 draw. But they've scored 5 goals at home and 5 goals on the road. In short, Chivas is a club that so far has been inconsistent--but they are dangerous depending on which club shows up for that particular match.

Notice that Chivas allows fewer SHTAs and SOGAs per game than does the Crew. As we said earlier in the season, the Crew's defense gives us cause for concern, and last week did nothing to alleviate those anxieties. However, the rest of the numbers tell us that the Crew enjoy a substantial advantage including GF/GM, GA/GM and PTS/GM. Most importantly, in the LM Power Rankings, the Crew enjoys a considerable advantage of over 1.5 STDDEVs.

Here's hoping that Hesmer has his head screwed on straight, that the Crew's attack gets more efficient (several players last week failed to finish exceptionally good chances) and that during the defensive phase the Crew begins to show signs of being able to completely shut down lesser teams . Columbus 'til I die.

Crew Tactical Breakdown: What to Look for Against Chivas

2010-05-14T14:05:00.004-04:00

By MJD

The Crew will most likely line up in their standard 4-4-1-1 on Saturday night, with Rogers and Gaven on the wings, and Padula and Hejduk as the outside backs. Iro, Marshall or O'Rourke will start as one of the center backs opposite Brunner. And look for Carroll and Moffatt to play as the holding center-mids.

In this formation, GBS plays rather high, which has been the subject of some discussion in the Crew blogosphere. The argument is that Guillermo is better utilized as a more traditional number 10, roaming the center which allows him to create more. In such a formation, the Crew would most likely go to a 4-3-3 or a 4-4-2-- in the latter they'd need to go with two forwards or a forward and striker combo: Lenhart and Ekpo, for example, or Lenhart and Gaven, or Lenhart and Garey.

However, as the next graphic shows, even in RW's present schema, Schelotto is still being used as a creator. Most importantly, the Crew's attack is a little more complicated and (we think) more dynamic and thus more difficult to defend.

In the graphic to the right, you see the Crew in the attack phase. The graphic represents what the club was trying to do last Saturday against New England and can be considered RW's basic approach on attack, at least with these players.

Notice that in this particular version of the Crew's 4-4-1-1, either Padula or Hejduk pushes up, in this case we'll push up Padula. But the left back is not merely crashing down the wing. Rather, in this scenario, the Crew is really playing a 3-2-3-2 or some might call it a 3-2-4-1. Regardless, the system is designed to get the left or right back to work with the holding mids, the wing AND the number 10, creating multiple passing possibilities and thus maintaining possession. All the while, they are building up the attack gradually, looking to get Rogers and Lenhart to angle in on the box and finish, with both Padula and Schelotto providing service.

As you can see, the interaction among the back, the mids, the "10" and the wing creates multiple and dynamic passing combinations, and can easily be shifted to the opposite wing with the right back (Hejduk) moving forward instead of the left.

Note also how this approach allows the team to get 5 players forward and that GBS is still in a central position. Further, if a run takes Rogers over to the right, Gaven and GBS can rotate left. Finally, Carroll and Moffatt are in a position to both support the attack and to drop back in front of the back three if the Crew lose possession.

Three things to take away from last week's game in light of the above analysis.

First, the striker absolutely must finish efficiently for the formation to produce goals. Lenhart did not do so last week in spite of some excellent service from both GBS and the wings. Overall, Lenhart has converted 40% of his SHTS to SOGs, but has scored only 1 goal in 4 SOG total or 25%. That's average for the league overall and below average for forwards. Perhaps last week was on off night. But maybe RW should start Ekpo up top instead of the big blond..

Second, the Crew looked vulnerable on the counter-attack last week, and so the two central mids have to be fast enough to respond quickly when the team is forced to defend.

Finally, this approach leaves the Crew with only a three-man back line. If the team can delay up high and thus allow players to get back and defend as a unit, this is not so dangerous. But make no mistake, this is an attacking formation that relies on possession and a quick retreat by the mids and the attacking back(s) to insure the opposing team doesn't overwhelm the three defenders.

Chivas has played a 4-2-3-1 its last two matches, and RWs back line will need to be sharp, even at home, if the Crew hopes to avoid another see-saw match against a lesser club. It will be interesting to see if the combination of Chivas' two mids in the 4-2-3-1 and the Crew's attacking 3-2-3-2 creates space in the middle of the field and thus a lot of movement and wide open play.

Our prediction? Look for the Crew to continue to gel as they get more games under their belt and for Chivas to give up 2 goals at least. Note that historically Chivas does not draw very often. Final score 2-0 Crew. Massive. Hagado C-Bus.

MLS Power Rankings Updated: Go West My Tan-Faced Children

2010-05-11T07:48:00.003-04:00

By MJD
We loathe the International House of Soccer's insistence on the two divisions as it distorts the league standings and has virtually no impact whatsoever on who gets into the playoffs. And although relegation is a long way off (if it ever happens in our lifetime--hopefully another 40 years or so), we hope the league will go to a single table much sooner. But this post isn't really about any of that. It's about MLS on television and the land of great Mexican food, medical marijuana, and the EPL "late" game with breakfast.

Take a look at our Power Rankings and the Single Table and you'll notice that the western teams currently dominate the league. In the Power Rankings, 5 of the top 8 teams are out of the West; and in the single table 6 out of the top 8 teams play their home games west of the Mississippi. Again, we have disdain for MLS' marketing strategy, but we think it's worth noticing that the best football in the league is currently being played far away from the Northeast corridor. Other than the Red Bulls, the top teams in the "East" are actually in the Midwest. And the majority of top teams in the league are either in the same time zone as Chicago or even further away from the nation's most densely populated region. Of course, the big standout exception is our beloved Crew who continue to contend for a third-straight Supporters Shield, which would do more than anything to demonstrate the invalidity of the two-division playoff scheme. (That's a post for another day).

MLS' business model is designed to insure big market teams like DC, NY, New England (Boston), Philly and Toronto can carry the load when it comes to television market share. Let's face it, the Crew vs. New England on a Saturday night is one thing; the Crew vs. KC is something else. The former includes greater Boston as one half of its potential audience, which is the nation's 7th largest television market; the latter includes the nation's 34th and 32nd largest markets respectively (who knew KC was bigger than C-Bus?).

All of this is simply to say that you can bet the suits at the IHOS are sweating a bit as the season unfolds. Philly looks like they genuinely stink. DC is drawing fewer of its rabid white-collar suburbanites out for a night of pseudo-hooliganism than their reputation would predict, and NE looks like its headed for yet another season of marginality.

As such, you might think we'd see more games on FSC from the major markets in the West this year than we would in the East. Unfortunately, it's more likely Don Garber and the Sports Admin majors in the league offices will decide that mediocre football that caters to the fans in the Northeast corridor is a potentially more profitable product than great football that caters to the fan of the beautiful game.

Which brings us once more to the patron saint of American soccer: Papa Walt:

Come my tan-faced children,

Follow well in order, get your weapons ready, Have you your pistols? have you your sharp-edged axes? Pioneers! O pioneers!

For we cannot tarry here, We must march my darlings, we must bear the brunt of danger, We the youthful sinewy races, all the rest on us depend, Pioneers! O pioneers!

O you youths, Western youths, So impatient, full of action, full of manly pride and friendship, Plain I see you Western youths, see you tramping with the foremost, Pioneers! O pioneers!

Luchametric Power Rankings Updated: The MLS Big Three and the End of Parity

2010-05-08T08:19:00.001-04:00

By MJD

It's early, it's early, um, AND it's still early. But the latest update of the Luchametric tells us that LA, the Crew, and the revived Red Bulls sit atop the league and have opened a substantial gap between the top three and the rest of the league.

The top three are all within .65 of a STD DEV of each other in the Z-Score and are all above 1500 in the actual LM score. The rest of the league is below 1500, with Chicago closest at 1199, and only the top three are over 1.00 STD DEVs above the league average.

One thing we like about the LM is that it takes into account the different factors which distort the league point standings (most importantly, Games Played) and provides a single score that allows for a comparison of all the teams in the league that is more representative of a team's success than mere points or even Points per Game can provide.

We'd also point out that Chicago and San Jose have moved up in the rankings and should be treated with seriousness by team managers and punters alike.

Finally, the bottom three (Toronto, Philly, and DC) remain at the bottom and still are playing substantially poorer than the rest of the league. There is much parity in the middle, but at this early stage, there is less parity across the entire league than we've seen in recent years.

Crew Shots Against Grid Updated

2010-05-04T11:36:00.002-04:00

By MJD
We've updated our chart tracking the Crew's SHTA and SOGA. The boys are still giving up more SHTA and SOGA than the league average (13.25 vs 10.77 and 4.5 vs 4.37 respectively), and their actual GA compared to their Expected Goals Against remains good (3 GA vs 5 EGA). But as the chart indicates, they're still allowing opponents to create quality chances against them--look at all those chances right inside the box--14 total right in front of the net.

The question, then, is two-fold, is the Crew's strategy to bend and not break and then counter-attack? Or does the team need to address its defensive issues quickly, as they cannot hope to continue to allow this many chances per game over the course of the remainder of the season and not start giving up goals? What if Hesmer goes down and his form drops a few notches? Our hunch right now is that RW needs to look hard at his back line. One solution would be to hold Hejduk back, for example, at least from run after deep run up the wing. A few judicious runs forward? Fine. But using him as a real attacking back? I don't know.

Finally, we've updated the power rankings and made them simpler.
The LM is now a single score normed so that the worst team in the league is now a zero. We hope it makes more sense. And in spite of our misgivings about the Crew, they are still second in our rankings, which is a measure of production per game, not simply overall production. As such, they are still right up there at the top of the league.

Crew at Seattle Preview: A Test of Both Teams

2010-04-29T08:58:00.005-04:00

By MJD

This weekend's fixture between the Crew and Seattle is a tough test for both clubs. Seattle badly needs three points. They've only earned 8 PTS over 6 games thus far and are 2-2-2 on the season. With a full 20% of the season elapsed for the Sounders, they need to step it up or kiss their playoff hopes and its revenue goodbye. Currently, Seattle is at 1.33 PPG. This would get them to 40 PTS for the season, which historically for the MLS has been the cut-off point for getting into the playoffs. However, our metric is slightly more dour for Sounders fans. Our current projection is for Seattle to top off at 34 PTS for the season, given their current rate of projection. Regardless of which measure you prefer, the Green Wave can't afford to drop anymore points at home.

Meanwhile, the Crew have earned a semi-massive 7 PTS in three games, and at 2-1-0 would appear to be the favorite. Alas, things are not that simple.

It's certainly true that of the the three opponents both teams have faced (TOR, DAL and RSL), the Crew are 2-1-0 with 7 PTS earned while Seattle is 0-2-1 with two PTS earned. And the Crew are averaging 1.67 GF/GM to Seattle's 1.17. And thanks to His Royal Majesty King Funk, AKA Billy Jack, AKA William Hesmer, the Crew is giving up only .67 GA compared to Seattle's 1.17.

Overall, however, Seattle has faced a tougher schedule, and one must be careful in assuming that the Crew's numbers are a true indication of their performance. Seattle's six opponents have averaged 1.2 PPG or -.48 on the LM. The Crew have faced three opponents who have earned an average of .92 PPG or -1.09 on the LM. And as we've indicated in an earlier post, the Crew's defense is suspect.

Note also that the table above tells us that the Crew give up more SHTA and SOGA per game than the Sounders, while the number of SHT and SOG each team produces per game are relatively the same. And both teams are producing less than the league average number of SOG per game. The Crew does have an advantage in our measure of Quality Shots on Goal, however, suggesting that they need fewer chances to capitalize. And the Sounders have given up 1 more goal than expected (EGA in the table above) given how many chances opponents have produced against them.

To sum: here's hoping Hesmer keeps up his excellent work, that the Crew's attack gets production from more than just Big Willy Schelotto (who may not even play), and that the Sounders "struggles" (hey, they're currently fourth in the league in the single table) continue. Unfortunately, this one looks headed for a low-scoring draw. Take the under at -114 (1.88) if you really feel the need to put some money down on this one. Or throw the dice on the Crew at +200 (3.00) if you think the Black and Gold's attack is finally going to break through and do some damage. But honestly? I'd avoid it like the plague.

Crew Defense Stats: Another Luchametric Exclusive

2010-04-27T08:44:00.002-04:00

By MJD

Yesterday we looked at the Crew's attack, today we look at the team's defense. What we see is troubling.

The grid to the left provides us with every SHTA and SOGA the Crew have faced over the first three games. It does not include PKs or free kicks. Notice that virtually every SHTA and SOGA is right in front of the goal and inside the penalty area. In other words, far from forcing teams to shoot from outside or take low-percentage shots, teams are getting right up in the Crew's grill. The other numbers look even more problematic. Check out the table below:

The Crew have given up only 2 GA so far. Obviously, that is a good thing. "EGA" is Expected Goals Against, or how many goals the team would be expected to give up, given how many SOGA they've allowed. This is calculated by taking the number of SOGA the team has faced and multiplying it by the percentage of SOGAs that result in goals across the league on average. Currently in the MLS, 18% of SOGAs result in Goals. This is low and will go up over the course of the season to anywhere from 26% to 30%--the latter are the historical averages from 2008 and 2009 combined. So, the Crew have actually given up fewer goals than expected given the number of shot opportunities they have allowed to be created against them. Why? Two words: William Hesmer.

The data clearly shows us that the Crew's back four aren't preventing scoring opportunities and are, in fact, allowing more scoring opportunities than the average MLS club. Further, the very quality of shots they're giving up is alarming. And yet the number of GA is low and the Crew have eked out two wins and a draw. The only explanation is our boy Hesmer, whose save percentage of 80% puts him third in the league as does his .67 GAA. William, we dub thee Billy Jack. Thou art truly massive.

The other important numbers in the last three columns support our assertion and love for His Royal Majesty King Hesmer. As you can see, although the Crew are giving up more SHTA and SOGA than the league averages, the percentage of SOGAs that result in GA is a very low 13%. This is very good given the current league average of 18%, and excellent given the historic league average of 26% or so. Once again, Billy, we salute you. Hagado Columbus! Till I die....

Crew Attack Stats: Luchametric Exclusive

2010-04-26T08:53:00.010-04:00

By MJD
We have preliminary data that show Robbie Rogers needs to step it up.

Nordecke Luchador will be tracking the Crew's attack this season like no other blog on the planet. To the left is a chart detailing where on the pitch the Crew have produced either a Shot or a Shot on Goal or a Goal. Note that this chart does not reflect free kicks or penalty kicks. We're relying on ESPN's Gamecast feature to track the data, and over the Crew's first three games at least, Gamecast does not show where on the field the free kicks are being taken. Our good friend Colin over at Championship At Best has clued us in on an alternative data source, but we're still working on accessing it. Once we do, we may be able to provide even more insight. And kudos to Colin as well for his outstanding work, upon which we've based the above chart.

How to use the chart? Well, it tells us the Crew is getting good opportunities in the box, which is always a good sign you're team is playing well in the offensive phase. And the attack looks very balanced as well. But the chart is best used in combination with close observation of tactical tendencies in actual games. Is the team looking to push down the wings and cross? Are we trying to break down defenses in front of the goal and get high-percentage shots on give-and-gos and through balls? Should the Crew be taking more shots from the top of the box and beyond? Open beer; drink beer; discuss.

Also, the table below gives us data on the Crew's attack through Saturday's fixture vs the garment clad warriors of RSL.

The Pro and Pro/GM stats are measures we developed to measure an individual player's contribution to his squad's offensive production. The explanation is here. Big Willie, Iro, Moffat and Lenhart are the top producers. Rogers is last. Notice just how few SOGs the left winger has. SHTs, yes, but actual dangerous chances? Not so much. The other troubling thing we notice is that Big Willie produces a goal or an assist every 67 minutes of play (Min/G+A). That puts him third in the league behind Buddle (61) and Morales (61.75). But the rest of the Crew's attackers have yet to step up. Once again, the Crew are relying too heavily on Schelotto to earn points. It would be unfair and inaccurate to say the team is one-dimensional, as four players have 6 shots or more over three games. But we certainly would like to see more goals and assists in the games ahead by the rest of the team's attack.

Notice also that immediately below the Crew's numbers we've included the top offensive players in the MLS this season for comparison. One thing we'd point out right away is that if any one mentions Conor Casey to you as deserving of a roster spot on the USMNT in South Africa, point out to the would-be Einstein that all three of his goals this season are from PKs, same with Cunningham. The talk about Buddle, however, may be warranted.

Finally, once we gain access to the new data stream, which will give us such elusive stats as passes created by a player that could have turned into a G or an Assist or a SHT or a SOG but didn't due to the subsequent player messing up or not quite reaching a beautiful through ball, we're going to tweak the metric. Essentially, we'll be able to add "chances created" to what we already have. This will allow us to include players, especially midfielders like Donovan, who clearly are producing for their clubs but whose production won't always show up as either a G or an A.

Hagalo, Columbus. 'Til I die...

Hagalo Columbus! Do it.

2010-04-25T19:01:00.002-04:00

"Do it." These two simple words encapsulate and embody the lifestyle that is Luchametric. It's not the corporate, materialistic mindlessness that characterizes Nike's insipid "Just Do It."

No, this is a more inclusive, counter-cultural, indeed, subversive concept that expresses an aspirational ideal for all working people and soccer fans everywhere. This is the battle cry of all men and women who understand that the wheels of capitalism are greased with the blood of the workers. This is the calling card of the people who know that there is honor in the struggle for justice.

Now, the Luchametric Revolution marches on into eternity through the hard work and creative talent of one lone foot-soldier in the fight, the legendary street artist Rick Thomas.

On a rain-soaked night that saw the Crew avenge their 2009 play-off loss to Real Suck Lake on a Penalty Kick by His Greatness Schelotto, Brother Thomas unfurled a banner in the Nordecke that memorializes and immortalizes El Luchador's battle cry and demonstrates for all the world that Columbus stands at the forefront of the global soccer revolution.

El Luchador and his associates, henchmen and viceroys salute this great man for his vision, talent and courage. By standing up for what he knows is right and supporting the cause, Brother Thomas has once again demonstrated the timeless truth of the words of Fidel Castro, who said: "A revolution is a struggle to the death between the future and the past."

Hagalo Columbus. Do it.

Luchametric MLS Preview: Houston and Seattle to Win; Crew to Show Us Who Are Ya?

2010-04-24T11:24:00.001-04:00

By MJD

The numbers have been updated in time for today's fixtures, and here's a few talking points as you pub it up before today's matches.

Seattle at Toronto - Seattle are third in the single table with 8 pts. Expectations for the Sounders are high around the league and the loss to NY early on at home has some questioning whether the team will be as dangerous as last season. The books have the odds on this match at +180, and earlier in the week the odds were even higher. Toronto has the worst GD in the league at -3. Seattle drew with Dallas on Thursday but did so due to 2 Dallas PKs, one awarded late. Seriously, this game is Seattle's to lose. Anybody who thinks they aren't tough is blowing smoke. And Toronto is a true bottom-feeder this year.

Houston at Chicago - Chicago has scored one goal at home this year, and their GD overall is 0. They produce a lot of SHT and SOGs, but they give up a lot as well. Houston is a much more balanced club, but have only scored one game on the road. Expect a low-scoring game, with Houston absorbing Chicago's wide-open style of play. but Houston getting limited scoring chances. However, in our measure of Quality SOGs, Houston is the best in the league at 4.97 Goals Above Average, with a ridiculous 67% of their SOGs resulting in goals. That rate will not continue, but it tells us that they don't need many chances to put it in the back of the net. At +180, Houston is well worth the punt.

RSL at Crew - We were very, very high on the Crew at the start of year, but it feels like they haven't played in months, and we simply don't have enough numbers or clear results to know if our sense that C-Bus is as good as we thought at the start of March is warranted. We do know that RSL is a mid-table team. Their GD is +4, and they've scored 5 goals on the road, but three of those were at San Jose. And they've earned just 4 PTS in 4 games overall and are once again on pace to place about 8th in the league. The Crew will be rusty, but if they can settle in without giving up any goals, this game is one they should win.

Arsenal vs Man City: The Mother of All Matches -- Take the Over

2010-04-23T09:39:00.002-04:00

By M.J.D.

Man City takes its UEFA Champions League aspirations into Emirates on Saturday (12:30 FSC) in a match that it absolutely has to win. Unfortunately for City, Arsenal is reeling from losses to Spurs and lowly Wigan, and although its EPL title chances are virtually nil, the Gunners will no doubt be hungry for a home win and an outside chance at overtaking Man U in the two spot in the league by season's end. We've updated the Power Rankings and looked at the stats and the odds, and here's what we know.

Man City will have to attack, and they are capable of scoring goals on the road. They've scored 31 AGs this season. Statistically the two teams are virtually even. But Arsenal does have more total Shots and SOGs, and the Gunners allow fewer SHTA and SOGA. But in our measure of Quality Shots on Goal, which gives a team credit for the ratio of goals it scores given the number of SHTs and SOGs it takes as compared to the rest of the league, Man City has a substantial advantage. For example, the average team in the EPL earns .26 goals for every SOG it produces, or 26%. But Man City scores 37% of the time it manages to create a SOG opportunity--a rather draw-dropping difference. This means that the scoring opportunities it creates are of a considerably better quality than most of the league. Arsenal's is up there as well at 34%, but the bottom line is that the Gunners will have to treat City's attack with respect or they will find themselves in a knife fight.

This has the potential to be an extremely tense and entertaining match, with lots of goals. Which brings us to the odds. The odds for Arsenal winning range from -141 to +104. The odds for Man City winning range from +240 to +330. If you can find a book that will give you positive odds on Arsenal, take it. If you like to gamble rather than simply make sound wagers, take City. We can't imagine this will be a draw. Finally, there are a range of over bets available from the European and British sportsbooks. In the States, where the over is generally always at +2.5, the odds are -140. We think the over is without a doubt the best bet on this one. And if you can manage to place a wager some place on the over at +3.0, which some books have in the +100 range or higher, do it.

MLS Power Rankings: LA, CLB, KC on Top - DC, Toronto, Philly at Rock Bottom

2010-04-22T09:30:00.004-04:00

By M.J.D
We've thoroughly tweaked the metric, and at this early stage, LA and the Crew are outpacing the rest of the league. The Crew's numbers are obviously suspect, as they've only played two games. But we think the rankings of the teams with 4 games played are fairly solid, which is only to say that our rankings accurately reflect how well, or how poorly, they've been playing over the season thus far, and not necessarily their potential.

Given all the work we've done over the last year on both the MLS and the EPL, we've added a column to our rankings (P Pts) that projects the number of points a team is on pace to accrue by the end of the year. The key is that the projection is a hypothetical: "If LA continues to play they way they've been playing thus far [that is, they play this well for all 30 games, which is an abject impossibility], they are on pace to earn 68 points by season's end." Obviously, it's not possible for D.C. to earn a negative 2 points, but that's how poorly they've performed thus far. Wow. They truly stink.

Other things worth mentioning include the fact that the infamous MLS parity is not as apparent early on. The bottom six teams in the league look to be considerably weaker than the top six. Could the MLS table finally be starting to look like other tables across the globe? We'll have to wait and see. But our rankings do suggest that at this early stage, both the league standings and a comparison of teams by points earned alone, do not reveal the real differences among the teams in the league. Finally, if Philly, Toronto and DC don't turn it around soon, and continue to drop points for another 4 games, over 25% of the season will have elapsed and their respective playoff aspirations will almost certainly be over. In any league, you have to establish a decent rate of point production per game, or else the hole you'll dig for yourself will be very difficult to climb out of. Of course, in the MLS you can always stink it up and then get rewarded with the eighth playoff spot and THEN try and play like a champion. But I digress. . .

Chelsea Blows It; Man U Back in Contention; Spurs Surge; Man City Must Run the Table

2010-04-17T21:58:00.004-04:00

By MJD

We're still in shock over both Man U's victory at Eastlands and Spurs' win at home over the Blues. Certainly both teams were capable of winning, and Spurs' win certainly was well-deserved. The shock comes from having to stare another Man U league title in the face when we had been hoping all season that Chelsea would finally unseat Ferguson at the top of the table. The facts are that Chelsea blew it, and few prognosticators thought it would happen. And now Man U has to face Spurs at home while Chelsea must go to Anfield and earn three points against Liverpool. Both teams' other games should earn them 6 points each, so today's events really have shaken things up. The drama in the weeks ahead connecting Chelsea's fate to Man U's to Spurs' to City's gives fans of the EPL much to savor in the last four weeks of the season.

Spurs' destiny is now in their own hands, and should they earn points at Man U and Man City, they will surge right on into a European tour--and deservedly so. Four points out of these two matches combined with wins against Bolton and Burnley would get them to 74. Man City has games left with Arsenal, Spurs, and Villa before finishing at home against West Ham. We earlier argued that City would drop points to Man U and Arsenal but beat Birmingham and then run the table to finish out the season. They're still in a position to do as we predicted. The problem is that Spurs have been much better than predicted, picking up six points when they weren't expected by anyone to do so. This means that the game at home against Spurs is now an absolute must win for City, as they need 12 PTS out of their remaining four matches including a win at Arsenal. 12 Pts would get them to 74 leaving Spurs at 73 even if the latter win their other three matches. Any slip whatsoever by City in the coming weeks and 4th place will elude them--unless Spurs' luck runs out and they come crashing back to earth. Spurs too must win at City to keep the dream of the Champions League alive, and losing at Man U would certainly put them in a difficult position. Here's hoping fans in the states get to see as much of the epic battle for fourth place as possible in the coming weeks.

MLS Power Rankings and Fixtures Preview: LA and KC (Believe it)

2010-04-16T19:36:00.003-04:00

By M.J.D.

We were going to wait until each team in the MLS had played 3 games before starting this season's power rankings, but we were doing all the work anyway, so we decided to release them. It's very early in the season, and we don't have nearly enough data for the numbers to mean very much, but we thought that what we did have was revealing (look to the right and scroll down). Here's what we know from watching some matches and crunching the numbers.

LA is for real. Those 3 wins are no fluke. Their sheer rate of production is higher than we've seen since we started doing our nalysis using 2008 numbers. They are currently producing over 15 Chances plus Goals per game, which is a rate they can't maintain for an entire season, but tells us just how well they HAVE played for three straight fixtures. For example, they are generating three SOGs for every one SOGA. And they have not given up a GA. Again, they won't play this well all season, but right now they are dominating the opposition. Which brings us to KC.

We're not afraid to admit it, we didn't expect this at all from the Wizards. To quote ourselves: "L'Etat C'est Moi." WAIT! That was the Sun King. Here's the real quote from our season preview: "KC signed some journeyman European players in the off-season but nothing to shout about. They amassed only 33 points last year, and we don’t see them doing much better this season" Well, we may have to eat those words. They've got six solid, legitimate points, and they are producing very close to LA's rate, if only over two games.

Early stats and performance tell us only so much. Right now, both LA and KC look legit. And if they continue to play well through their next three or four games, we'll know even more. Regardless, right now we wouldn't bet against either team at home.

On the other end of things, DC is in deep, deep, trouble. They haven't just been losing, they've been getting their hat handed to them, then kicked in the arse, and then poked in the eye. Sure, they have lots of time to turn it around. But our analysis suggests that it's not just a matter of one or two tweaks to the lineup. This dog just might not ever learn to hunt.

Now on to tomorrow's fixtures. These are the games to watch, or at least to check up on Sunday morning if the MLS website is functional:

KC at Seattle - We'll be watching this one closely. If KC goes in to Seattle and gets a result, we'll know more about both teams. We still think the Sounders are going to be tough. But their fans will be hungry for a clean three points and KC will be tested soundly on the road. NY may have surprised the Sounders. We don't expect KC to do so.

Chicago at DC - Relegation Preview. Wait, there is no such animal in the MLS...yet. But seriously folks, this is an early meeting of two teams that need to get it together and toot sweet. If the Fire get a result, Curt Onalfo will be feeling the heat. Chicago plays better on the road, something no one seems capable of explaining, so our sense is that the Fire will go in and get a positive result. If they get three points, it will drive even the United fateful to an early exit from RFK en route to their homes in the DC suburbs.

RSL at LA - Given our allegiance to the Crew ('till we die), RSL is now to the Crew what DC used to be; namely, anathema. So, we look forward to LA trouncing the MLS "champs" in a rematch of last year's MLS Cup and showing that RSL's playoff run was a fluke. Emotion aside, this is another match whose result will tell us much about both teams, but probably more about RSL. If the boys from Rio Tinto can earn a point, let alone knock off LA, we'll have to admit that they're more legit than we'd like to, um, admit. If LA wins 1-0, or dominates, it might not tell us much about RSL, but it will be even more evidence that the Galaxy are the team to beat this season.

Luchametric Quickie: More on MLS Improvement

2010-04-06T10:47:00.002-04:00

By El Chupa

We wrote about the improvement of the league recently, and this piece over at goal.com gives a nice overview of how US soccer development is showing signs of being a real producer of MLS talent. El Chupa likey...

Man City, Spurs, Reds: Who's Going on a European Tour?

2010-04-05T21:00:00.009-04:00

By El Chupa

Last week we looked at Liverpool's chances at overtaking Spurs and sneaking in to the fourth spot in the league. Our conclusion was that Liverpool actually had a chance given how much easier was their remaining schedule. In our analysis, we ignored Man City, not because we thought they had a worse chance than the Reds, but because regardless of what City accomplished, Liverpool had to overtake Spurs to make it to fourth. We were also focused on refuting Rafa's claim that the Scousers still had a chance to earn the automatic bid to the Champions League.

Well, this weekend's fixtures have changed things, and we thought we'd update our prognostication. So today we'll look at Spurs, Man City, AND Liverpool and make our prediction as to who, in fact, will attain the coveted fourth invitation to Europe's premier club competition.

We pointed out last time that Spurs had a very tough schedule compared to Liverpool, including games against Chelsea, Man U, Man City and Arsenal. And, well, they still do. To top it off, Spurs were soundly beaten by Sunderland last weekend, squandering an opportunity to pick up points that would have helped them immensely. Lucky for them, Liverpool continued to torment their fans, managing a draw with a solid but surely weaker Birmingham. Meanwhile, City absolutely THUMPED Burnley. But Man City fans have to look forward to games against Man U (derby), Arsenal, Spurs and Villa. The only tough game the Reds have left is against Chelsea.

So, last weekend's fixtures put City at 59, followed by Spurs at 58 and Liverpool at a a distant 55 (notice how large the draw with Birmingham looms for the Reds). Both City and Spurs have a game in hand over LFC. However, as we've indicated, Liverpool has by far the much easier schedule. Liverpool's remaining opponents have earned on average 1.19 PTS/GM. Spurs' have averaged 1.69 followed by Man City's at 1.44. This season, a team in the EPL has picked up, on average, 1.36 PTS/GM.. The table below summarizes the situation (if you can't make it out, click on it).

The final column reduces or increases each team's projected points based on the relative strength of that team's remaining opponents. Notice that if each team earns the same number of points over its remaining games that it has all year, Man City squeaks in ahead of Spurs. If we take into consideration the strength of each club's respective schedules, however, (at least from a numerical standpoint) City and Spurs finish in a dead heat. Neither scenario looks good for the Reds. Now that we've crunched the numbers, here's what we really think is going to happen.

Man City will pick up wins at home against Birmingham, Spurs, Villa, and West Ham. They'll drop games to both Man U and the Gunners. This will give them 12 PTS. Spurs will manage only 1 PT over three games against Man U, Chelsea, and Arsenal. They'll lose to City but thump both Bolton and Burnley. This will give them a very disappointing 7 PTS. Meanwhile, if we give the Reds a generous 12 points, with wins in four of their last five games, they still come up short. Final standings in the race for fourth: Man City 71; Scousers 67; Spurs 65. We actually expect the Reds to draw one of those wins, but feel magnanimous today. And of course if Spurs go up to Manchester and manage to beat a surging City squad with its eyes on the prize, that swing in three points will pull them even with City. It should be an interesting match.

MLS Designated Player Rule Good for League

2010-04-03T09:07:00.006-04:00

By El Chupacabra
There will soon be enough early-season data in the MLS for El Chupa to turn his formidable intellect to analysis of actual play on the field. But with the resolution of the labor issue behind us and now the announced change in the designated player rule, El Chupacabra feels compelled to point out something he's noticed in just the first week of play.

The quality of play in the league as a whole, with some exceptions, is noticeably better this season than just a few years ago (this is a holistic rather than empirical observation, but El Chupa justifies it below). What's more, the new labor deal and the change in the designated player rule bode well for the league as a whole -- extremely well in El Chupa's opinion. In fact, we see Thursday's announcement expanding the designated player as a tipping point for the league.

First, let's give props to the owners and the single-entity model. The learned men of the Luchametric Institute for Advanced Predictive Science have railed against the single-entity model in the past, and we still find it problematic in many ways. But no one can argue that it has not produced material success.

Average attendance in the league in 2009 was 16,000 per game, with Seattle, LA, and Toronto all over 20,000. Philly and NY are both projected to approach 20,000 per game if not more this season. There are currently nine soccer-specific stadiums with two more scheduled to open in 2011 and five more proposed if expansion proceeds as planned. Of course, Seattle will never be taken entirely seriously until they are rid of the cursed artificial turf, but that will come with the continued support of their horde of vocal and knowledgeable fans.

So, now that MLS is established, has survived its first major labor dispute, has reached an acceptable and growing attendance average, it is time for further progress. The sudden and surprising change in the designated player rule is a major step forward. It allows for even more talent to come into the league. Let's be perfectly clear: this is all very, very good for the MLS and soccer fans of all stripes in the U.S.

The change in the designated-player rule will catalyze a trend that has been unfolding in the league over the last several seasons -- the steady increase of mid-level non-U.S. talent. Initially, the league had stringent rules about the number of non-US players allowed on rosters. This was one of several decisions the league made to avoid the pitfalls that doomed the NASL in the 1970s. This rule was gradually loosened and now the league looks more like the EPL than it does, say, the Mexican Primera Division. Specifically, clubs from our beloved Crew to teams in more cosmopolitan metro areas like LA and NY have a mix of US and international talent.

One key factor in the demise of the NASL was that all its stars were non-US has-beens, including the great Pele. But that's not the case in the MLS. Now that Beckham is, thankfully, done for most of the season, U.S. international Landon Donovan is the biggest star in the MLS, and the majority of non-U.S. MLS players are journeymen from Europe and south of the Border still in their prime. Throw into the mix young international players seeking playing time and better living conditions and even wages along with aging but not over-the-hill non-U.S. stars (see Schelotto, Willy) and you've got a league that is well into its adolescence. To sum, the MLS is not the NASL and never will be, and it is poised for its next period of growth..

Every serious soccer fan who follows the EPL or the other European leagues is familiar and quite comfortable with the international mix of the top teams in those leagues. Arsenal has a French coach, it's star is the injured Fabregas (Spanish international), and its roster looks like a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. Further, the lower divisions in Europe, and even teams down-table in the top leagues, function much the way the minor leagues do in American Major League Baseball -- they're stocked with young players looking to get picked up by a top club.

Pay attention when big clubs start looking to smaller clubs for players either to sign outright or acquire on loan. Also, when you get a chance to watch an English first or second division club play an EPL team in the FA or Carling Cup competitions, notice just how young the players are on the lower division teams. In short, such teams serve as high-caliber developmental teams for the bigger clubs, giving young players a chance to play, blossom, and then be sold or transferred when they've proven their mettle. Even Bordeaux, who are currently at the top of the French Ligue 1 table, are losing their young star striker Marouane Chamakh, most likely to Arsenal.

What we are witnessing in the MLS is the emergence of the top U.S. professional league as an increasingly competitive proving ground for young U.S. and non-U.S. talent. MLS fans should be happy and satisfied with this progress. This is a natural step in the league's evolution toward true first-division status. El Chupa would certainly pay MLS prices to see the next Chamakh or Fabregas before he's snatched up by the Arsenals and Barcelonas of the world. And if the league continues to grow, our top talent that currently plays in Europe will give the MLS a much longer look.

Again, the MLS is not quite there, but the ability of teams to sign more designated players, combined with the luxury tax on such signings that distributes money to other clubs, has the potential to achieve a balance that will continue to move the league forward. MLS fans who long for more talent in the league--US or otherwise--should be very happy as the 2010 season unfolds as they will no doubt see the best professional soccer this country has witnessed since the 1994 World Cup.

EPL Handicapping: Wayne Rooney is Out, So Chelsea Will Win

2010-03-31T23:55:00.005-04:00

Wayne Rooney's injury Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League has not yet moved the odds on Man U to win the EPL or this Saturday's Battle Royale at home with Chelsea, and this presents an opportunity for savvy punters.

At 2.70, Chelsea to win away at Manchester Saturday is a solid bet. Here's why the Luchametric says do it:

1.) Without Rooney, Man U Feeble. With 26 goals, Rooney has scored more than any player in the EPL, and he is Man U's main offensive threat. It's difficult to see how they have much juice without him.
2) Travel. Man U flew 1,000 miles midweek for their disappointing 2-1 loss v Bayern Munchen Tuesday, whilst Chelsea have been training comfortably at home all week and have just a short jaunt down the road for Saturday's lunchtime match.
3) Momentum. While Man U lost on a heartbreaking last minute goal in that UEFA Champions League match in Munich, Chelsea are coming off their impressive 7-1 bitch slap of the previously respectable Aston Villa on Saturday.
4) Luchametric. There is little that separates these two on the Luchametric, but Chelsea have the edge. The Blues have a total Luchametric score of 8.2 versus Man U's 7.7. What's more, Chelsea have more offensive potential statistically than Ferguson's boys with 7.4 shots on goal per game versus Man U's 6.8, and Chelsea have a 20 to 18 advantage on total shots per game. Chelsea only allows 2.88 SOG Against per Game while Man allows 3.97. What's more, last November at Stamford Bridge, Man U managed only 2 SOG the entire game, although they did put much pressure on the Blues, amassing 20 Shots and 7 corners. Look for Chelsea again to bend but not break, especially with Rooney out.
5) God. He hates Manchester United for their conceit.

El Luchador's pick: Bet on Chelsea to win. Do it.

Luchametric Dot Com: Soccer Statistics

2010-03-31T23:42:00.002-04:00

What Bill James did for Baseball, the Luchametric aims to do for soccer.

The Luchametric is a weighted statistical score that represents the net number of Goals plus Chances Created (events that could have led to goals) each team produces per game, minus Goals plus Chances Created Against. The Z-Score gives the relative differences among the teams in Standard Deviations. The metric considers and weights the following variables: Home Goals, Away Goals, Home Wins, Away Wins, Draws, Losses, Shots, Shots on Goals, Quality Shots on Goal, Corners For, Corners Against, Goals Against, Shots on Goal Against, and Recent Form.

The weights for each category were derived by looking at a range of variables (statistical categories) and subjecting them to simple regression analysis to identify those stats which are the strongest measure of a team's strength relative to other teams. We are currently doing a multiple regression analysis of the entire metric for both EPL and MLS in order to develop both a predictive model for individual teams across an entire season and for predicting individual matches.

Currently, across most professional leagues, the home team wins 50% of the time, the away team 25%, and the remaining 25% of games are draws. When there is a substantial difference in relative team strength, the home team win % approaches 65% or more. The Luchametric Power Rankings are designed to measure team strength in order to give fans and punters an edge on these basic percentages. For serious punters, a gain in predictability of just 5% is substantial. Currently, a team with an advantage of 1 full Standard Deviation in the LM indicates a sizable advantage over the other team. We are tracking games week by week in our effort to test the predictability of the metric on a game-by-game basis. We do this for fun and madness only and have absolutely no connection to any commercial venture whatsoever.

To download Excel files containing the comprehensive team stats, click on the appropriate link below. To be put on our mailing list and receive the Luchametric Power Rankings as soon as they are up, including an Excel file with that week's data, click here.

The Nordecke Luchador and his associates are indemnified from liability from the misuse of these powerful tools.

Why Liverpool Just Might Make It Back to the Champions League

2010-03-29T20:35:00.003-04:00

By El Chupa
Rafa Benitez is claiming that Liverpool Football Club still have their eyes on the fourth spot in the EPL and an automatic bid to the UEFA Champions League. After Aston Villa's utter annihilation at Stamford Bridge this weekend, it would appear that Man City and Tottenham are the only teams standing in Liverpool's way. Here's why Tottenham will not foil Benitez's plan.

Currently, Spurs are in the fourth spot with 58 points and Liverpool are two places behind with 54 (Man City are fifth at 56). Spurs have a game in hand with seven left to play. The Reds have only six games to play. At first glance, it might look like Rafa is again blowing smoke, trying to keep the Kop's drunken fans at bay, keep his job, and keep his players from phoning it in the rest of the season.

A quick look at the numbers suggests that Rafa is, in fact, ALL smoke and no fire, but looks can be deceiving. Spurs have averaged 1.87 PTS/Game while the Reds have averaged 1.69. This projects out to Spurs earning 13 PTS by the end of the season, and LFC earning 10. This would get Spurs to 71 PTS and Liverpool to 64. On the face of it, the game-in-hand Spurs have over Liverpool looms rather large, as the mere 4 PTS that separate the two clubs now are really a distortion, and Rafa's impression that he won't be on the job market in a few weeks illusory.

However, before Scouser-haters rejoice, take a look at each team's remaining schedule. Spurs face 7 teams who together represent 355 PTS earned this year in the EPL. Liverpool face six teams representing a mere 232 PTS. Spurs will face, on average, a team "worth" about 51 PTS. Currently, Aston Villa are at 51 PTS in the league table. Liverpool, on the other hand, will face, on average, a team "worth" about 38 PTS, such as Fulham or Stoke. To make matters worse for Spurs, Tottenham will play Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal, AND Man City (who are right behind them in the standings). Liverpool have only Chelsea left to play from the top of the table. In short, would you rather play Villa seven times in a row, or Fulham six times?

As much as the experts at the Luchametric Institute hate to admit it, Reds fans still have hope of some small shred of redemption at the end of the season. Spurs fans, on the other hand, have much to hope for, and even more to worry about.

EPL Handicapping: The Beauty of Relegation

2010-03-26T10:00:00.001-04:00

By El Chupa

There will be some great football this weekend in the EPL. Here are some matches to watch and why:

Villa at Chelsea (10:45 A.M. EDT ESPN Classic) - Chelsea absolutely need three points to stay in the running with Arsenal and Man U for the league title. They also will want revenge for the loss at Villa Park early in the season. Villa are looking to secure a spot next season in Europe in either the Champions or Europa leagues and need three points if they hope to steal the fourth spot in the league from Spurs. Villa have given up fewer goals on the road than at home this season, and they are tied with Man U for the fewest GA in the league (25). If anyone in the league can keep Chelsea and Drogba at bay for 90 minutes at Stamford Bridge, its the Villains. Punters should avoid this one, however, or throw the dice for the draw or maybe the under. The odds on Chelsea aren't worth it.

Fulham at Hull City (6 P.M. Fox Soccer Channel; delayed )- Given how superior a team they are to the Tigers, Fulham is being given odds that look generous at first glance (+220) . But Fulham is out of contention for the top seven in the league and are playing on the road against a team fighting to avoid relegation. If Fulham shows up, this should be a fierce contest. But if you think the Tigers are going to fight like hell against a team already thinking about the beaches of Spain, Hull at +140 is not a bad punt.

Everton at Wolves (5:00 P.M. EDT Fox Soccer Plus; delayed) - Everton have an outside chance at the fourth spot in the league, and certainly are looking to make it to the Europa league at worst. But they need points every time out from now until the end of the season to do so. Wolves, on the other hand, are in danger of relegation, and they need points just to survive--especially at home. Everton are the superior side by far. But they will be without Donovan, and it will be interesting to see if the Toffees continue to surge without the American star whose arrival coincided with the revival of the team's fortunes. We like Everton at +105, but it's not a sure thing against a Wolves team whose last three games have gone quite well and who have their backs to the wall.

Luchametric EPL Power Rankings: Blues, Red Devils, Gunners

2010-03-26T09:53:00.001-04:00

By El Chupa
No real movement this week in our EPL Power Rankings. Chelsea remains on top, but there's really very little difference among the top three. Arsenal has won six matches in the EPL in a row and are scorching hot. Plus, they have Fabregas back. If anyone can beat Barca right now over in the Champions League it's the Gunners in absolute peak form. It should be an exciting last couple of months in the EPL, with three teams competing for the title and four teams (five if you include Everton) competing for the fourth automatic spot in next year's UEFA Champions League: Spurs, Villa, Liverpool and Man City are neck-and-neck for the fourth spot.

Of the four teams competing for number four, Villa is our dark horse, and the team closest to our hearts. They have given up the fewest GA of all four teams (25) and have the second-best GD at 17 (Man City is first at 16). Villa are four points behind Spurs with tough away games at Chelsea and Man City left to play; so it certainly won't be easy. Their last two outings have been disappointing home draws to down table Wolves and Sunderland. On this basis, some are counting them out, which would be premature.

At the bottom end, Hull City is by far the poorest performer statistically, with a Luchametric score well over a one full standard deviation off the average and behind Fulham.

MLS Owners Gambling with League's Future: The Luchametric Mission Statement

2010-03-24T21:29:00.006-04:00

The Nordecke Luchador and his associates do not condone illegal activity, but we believe that Major League Soccer will never enjoy the respect and attention of other world football leagues until there is more widespread betting interest in MLS. This will never happen until the monopolistic robber barons who control MLS abandon their childlike obsession with the anti-competitive, indeed, anti-American, single-entity system.

Ironically, it is the anti-competitive single-entity model that results in a hyper-competitive MLS. And it is this very hyper-competitiveness that is in fact holding the league and American soccer back.

More than $70 billion per year is wagered in online sports betting alone (not including street bets and legal sports books in places like Las Vegas). The number is projected to reach $100 billion by 2015. By far the most popular sport for gamblers worldwide is soccer, representing by some estimates one-third of the total wagers placed online.

You can place a bet today on who will win the Spanish La Liga title (which will not be decided until May), who will win the World Cup (which doesn't even start until June 11), first-half results for any first division match anywhere this weekend, or even whether Rafa Benitez will be fired from Liverpool (if the Scousers drop out of the top four, he will).

By contrast, there are no lines available today on who will win the 2010 MLS Supporters Shield or the marketing gimmick that is the MLS Cup. Most bookies won't even take bets on the over/under for this week's opening games.

"Well that's just because the MLS sucks," you say. OK, yeah, it's not the EPL. But like most things in life, the answer is not so simple. It is also because the league is too competitive. "Too competitive" you say? How can a league be too competitive? Competitive is good, right?" Not if you are a sports gambler.

As Leandro Faria writes in Simple Soccer, "the smaller the number of big teams within a league, the more predictable it is."

In other words, the more competitive a league is, the more parity; the more parity, the harder it is to make predictions about the outcome of matches. Obviously, betting is nothing other than predicting the outcome of matches. Ergo, betters are interested in leagues that are more predictable, which is the same thing as less competitive -- but not necessarily less interesting or with inferior quality play, as we shall see below. Faria developed a "predictability index" based on actual team parity within leagues as measured by diversity of championships. The top four most predictable (least competitive) first division leagues in the world are in: 1) Scotland, 2) Netherlands, 3) Portugal and 4) Turkey.

The least predictable(most competitive) first division soccer leagues in the world, according to Faria? Brazil and U.S. Major League Soccer.

The numbers clearly back this up. Last year the Columbus Crew won the Supporters Shield with 49 points. Of the other 14 teams in MLS, 12 were within 9 points of the Crew. Contrast that with the rest of the world. In EPL right now 56 points separates Manchester United from last place Portsmouth (nine of those are a result of the penalty Pompey suffered as a result of going bankrupt, but still). In the Italian Serie A,there are 39 points between No. 1 Inter and last place Livorno. In Der Bundesliga it's 38. In La Liga it's 52.

Now, predictable is a relative thing. Any team in any first division soccer league anywhere in the world can beat any other team in that league, as they say, on "any given Sunday" (or Saturday). So it's not as though less-competitive leagues are boring.The leagues that are actually more fun to watch are those that (perhaps counter-intuitively) are a little less competitive and thus have less parity.

(Two other factors also are at play here and are tragically missing from MLS: relegation and a single table, but we will deal with these in a subsequent article).

The MLS league bosses are applying a simplistic, American (in the pejorative sense) paradigm and business model to the league. Their thinking is that by maintaining strict parity, there is more likely to be more widespread interest in more teams, deeper into the season, and that this will maximize revenue (which is all they care about). In fact, if they would allow for clubs to develop true competitive advantages with perhaps only a few teams each season vying for the top, there would be less parity, more excitement, more betting interest (not just in the U.S. but worldwide) and ultimately more revenue.

Whether you happen to be among those who love or hate (it's one or the other) the Yankees, Manchester United, Dallas Cowboys (of the '70s and '80s) or the Chicago Bulls, dynasties are a critical part of generating excitement in any sports league. Fans love narratives about underdogs and champions and the inevitable falls from grace that occur each season. There will be no dynasties and no such story lines in the MLS until there is less parity--less vanilla and more funk, anger, despair and agony.

The Players Union's success in negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement is a major step forward in breaking down the owners' monopolistic scheme. Most fundamentally, it is a victory for the working man and for economic justice. But it also moves the MLS toward less parity, which in the long run does more than anything to support the long-term viability of the league by making it more interesting and more viable for the $70 billion sports betting market.

So, this brings us the mission statement part of this post. As El Luchador and El Chupa travel the world, from Cuba to Caracas, from LA to C-Bus, we are often asked, "Why do you do it? Why do you work so tirelessly, risking the wrath of Don Garber and his minions on the Dark Side of the Force?" Here's the answer:

Luchametric.com has two purposes. 1) Speaking truth to power, fighting the populist soccer revolution in the United States by taking it to the streets. 2) Supporting American soccer by supporting worldwide interest in placing wagers on U.S. soccer.

Do it.

Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings: Houston and Crew to Vie for Supporters Shield

2010-03-23T05:14:00.034-04:00

By El Chupa

These past few weeks, while El Luchador has been in the streets waging guerrilla war on the establishment, and the Major League Soccer season has hung in the balance, El Chupacabra has been scouting the league, reviewing his notes from last season, and analyzing the off-season moves by each MLS club. Now that El Luchador and his brothers-in-arms in the Players Union have emerged victorious, and the 2010 MLS season is set to kick-off this week, we present the patented Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings.

If you happen to live in a jurisdiction where sports wagering is legal, these rankings are offered as a tool for handicapping the early MLS season, a period during which we will have little fresh data available to inform our predictions--and punts ("wagers" for our fellow American gaming enthusiasts). Pre-season rankings aren’t predictions--they’re observations. There are always “ifs” on each club, the season is long, and much can happen. We aren’t predicting the season will end in the following order, but this is how we think the league stacks up out of the gate. The Luchametric Institute for Advanced Sports Prediction Science is indemnified from liability for misuse of these powerful tools.

Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings
1. Houston
2. Columbus
3. LA
4. Seattle
5.Chivas
6. Chicago
7. Colorado
8. D.C.
9. Real Salt Lake
10. Philly
11. Dallas
12. K.C.
13. New England
14. NYC
15. Toronto
16. San Jose

1. Houston – Houston finished second in the Luchametric Power Rankings last season, tying LA in the West with 48 points. Houston and LA were tied for second in the league overall behind the Crew. Houston are stingy on defense, giving up only .97 GA/GM (tied with Seattle for first in the league). Their 4.03 SOGA/GM puts them well below the league average of 4.8. Offseason they lost Holden and Clark but completed a trade for Kevin Harmse with LA. Harmse will add depth and toughness to the midfield. They also have just signed Jamaican International midfielder Lovel Palme. Even with the loss of two key players, we think with their defense and Ching and Landin leading the attack on a team with a Goal Differential last season of 10 (tied with the Crew for best in the league) and a unique home field advantage due to the scorching, humid Texas heat, Houston will make a run for both the MLS cup and the Supporters Shield.

2. Columbus – We’ve put the Crew second and feel strongly that last season’s slow start and weak finish were flukes. Their strong showing in their two CONCACAF Champions League games against Mexican side Tolouca was impressive. If Schelotto is healthy and can play all season; and if Lenhart and Rogers continue to mature, and if Sergio Herrera settles in and helps create up front, the Crew will again find themselves competing for both the MLS Cup and the Supporters Shield. We should know by the end of the first six games or so whether the real Crew is the team we saw in June and July—or September.

3. LA- The Galaxy finished third in the LM and tied for second in the league table with 48 points. Offseason they acquired Clint Mathis from MLS Cup champion Real Salt Lake and three players on loan from Brazilian club Sao Paolo FC. Donovan is back from a stellar performance for Everton in the EPL and although Beckham is out indefinitely, LA’s overall production last season was excellent in spite of a dearth of goals. As such, should the acquisitions improve the team’s goal production, LA will be very tough. They will have to hang tough while Donovan is in South Africa for the World Cup, however.

4. Seattle – The Sounders finished last season at the top of the Luchametric Power Rankings and fourth in the league table with 47 points. They were very tough on defense, giving up the fewest SOGA per game in the league and the fewest GA/GM in the league (tied with Houston at .97 GA/GM). As such, they were very tough to beat, amassing 11 draws. Off-season they needed to improve their attack, and they did, signing Swiss International Blaise Nkufo. He has been with Dutch First Division Club FC Twente since 2003 and has been their leading scorer each year since he joined. He is 34 (another aging European/South American player comes to the MLS) but he has nine goals in the Eredivisie this season and has scored in all six of Switzerland’s World Cup Qualifiers suggesting he is in fine form. He will finish the Dutch season before heading to South Africa and then joining the Sounders. If the Sounders can hang tough until mid-July, he should make an immediate impact. If they had Nkufo from the first game, they'd be our number one.

5. Chivas – The City of Angel’s “other” team (let's face it, LA's Mexican team), Chivas was a bit of a puzzle last season. The club was tied with Dallas and New York for the fewest number of draws at 6, but the club still managed to produce 45 points. The club either won or lost virtually every time it went out, testing the theory that a team needs to settle for draws if it hopes to succeed over the long haul. The club scored only 34 Goals, below the league average of 38, but gave up only 31, much better than the league average of 38. Their ability to shut down opposing teams was their greatest strength last season and perhaps explains how they scratched out as many points as they did in spite of a less-than-impressive offense. Their two major offseason signings, Osael Romero (Vista Hermosa - El Salvador) and Michael Umana (Liberia Mia - Costa Rica) don’t suggest there will be more goals for Chivas this season.

6. Chicago – The Fire finished fourth in the LM Rankings and tied with Chivas for fifth in the league table with 45 points. They certainly will be a different team without Mexican legend Cuauhtemoc Blanco, however. Chicago had a hard time scoring at home last season, totaling only 16 GF compared to 23 GF on the road. They’re attacking style resulted in above average SOG and CKs, but they had a hard time finding the net overall. Offseason they signed Krzysztof Król on loan from the Polish first division to fill the left back position; Collins John, a Liberian-born Dutch striker with experience in both the EPL and the Eredivisie, but a player who has failed to stick anywhere he has played and who has a reputation as a bit of a head-case; and Julio Martinez, a Salvadorian International winger on loan from Mexican club Leon. If Martinez and John can add to the Fire’s attack and the team finds a suitable replacement for Blanco, Chicago may be in a position to improve on last season’s showing.

7. Colorado – The Rapids had a respectable season, earning 40 PTS and basically establishing the median line in the MLS table. They scored 1.4 G/GM and gave up 1.27. They had a lot of draws (10) but only 2 wins on the road and 10 losses. Both Colorado and Real Salt Lake enjoy substantial home field advantages due to their respective altitudes. But the Rapids’ offseason moves are unimpressive and a bit of a puzzle. Conor Casey and Omar Cummings can score, and Ballouchy has potential. So look for Colorado still to be tough at home and playoff bound, but not a serious threat to unseat the top teams in the table.

8. D.C. – El Chupa has had it in for DC since he heckled John Harkes at the very first Crew game back in the ‘Shoe. DC’s success has only made a bad relationship worse, which is one way of saying that DC still evokes fear in El Chupa. However, DC stunk last season. And when you watched them, you saw a team that couldn’t play as a unit and which was constantly bickering on the field. The offseason moves don’t indicate they’ve solved the puzzle. They essentially jettisoned most of last year’s team and other than Cristian Castillo, the offseason signings are uninspiring.

9. RSL – RSL played very well in the postseason. They earned 40 PTS in the regular season which was average. Kudos to the team for making a very good run when it mattered most. But we think that was a fluke and the loss of Mathis will hurt them. The team made few moves in the offseason and looks like they are building for the future. We expect them to be average once again. If they don't start winning on the road and away from the high elevation of Rio Tinto, they won't get the chance this year to peak at just the right moment. And they won't take anybody by surprise and every team will be gunning for them. Finally, white guys with dreads are like mimes: you see the damnedest things when you ain't got your shotgun. . . .

10. Philly – That’s right. Expansion Philly at No. 10. Why? They did well in the expansion draft. They have a brand new stadium. They will have big crowds all season, and they have a good chance to score goals with Le Toux, Moreno and prospective phenom Mwanga looking to put it in the back of the net. Given the mediocrity of the teams in the bottom half of the league, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Philly make a run into the post-season. (Look what Seattle did in their first year). Caution has us putting them below the top eight, however.

11. Dallas – Dallas earned 39 PTS last season, one PT below the league average of 40. There are no indications that FCD has made the changes they needed to in order to improve on last year’s mediocrity. They made few offseason acquisitions and are banking on the core team coming together and improving on last season. Again, 39 PTS is not that far off the top of the league, and Dallas' strategy could pay off.
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12. K.C. – KC signed some journeyman European players in the off-season but nothing to shout about. They amassed only 33 points last year, and we don’t see them doing much better this season. Their temporary stadium is such an absolute abomination we refuse to watch any games broadcast from it. Yeah, there's not much they can do about it. But it's probably best just to avert thine eyes until things improve in KCK.

13. New England – The Revolution earned 42 PTS last season but were 11th in the LM rankings. Their off-season moves were principally spent signing young players in the Superdraft and we don’t see them doing much better this season than last. 42 PTS is, again, only 7 off the top of the league. But still. . .

14. NYC – The Red Bulls are going to be better this season for two reasons: First: they can’t really be worse than they were last season; second: their new stadium will give them a bit of a bump at home. Juan Pablo Angel can score, but they need help in the midfield and at the back to stay in matches and produce chances. There are a lot of ifs on this team. They have a new and experienced coach in Hans Backe. Regardless, we see them remaining in the bottom half of the league table.

15. Toronto – 39 PTS last season and only 33 GF (league average: 38) and no significant offseason moves adds up to another postseason watching hockey. Gerba and deRosario can score, but there are too many holes in the rest of the team. They gave up 1.53 GA/GM last year and amassed 10 wins but suffered 11 losses. Consistency will be the key, but we don't see them improving much. Plus, their fans are drunken, loutish, mouth-breathers.

16. San Jose – Only one team was worse than San Jose last season (Red Bulls) and there are no signs that San Jose will be any better. Sanchez brings experience and speed to the midfield and Alvarez could certainly mature. Ryan Johnson is a great striker but the team as a whole needs to come together to give Ryan good service and to get any better than last season. Unfortunately, they have a lot of tough teams ahead of them in the standings and on the schedule.

Quotes from Garber, Foose, Etc. on Tragedy Narrowly Averted

2010-03-21T23:06:00.002-04:00

Interpreting the body language and rhetoric here, it is clear that the owners are vanquished and the players are victorious. Just listen to Don Garber's stilted, prepared corporate remarks compared to Union President Bob Foose, and the others from the union who have to hide their glee.

March 20, 2010 will go down as a great day in the history of the MLS, U.S. soccer, and the struggle for workers' rights.

Breakthrough in MLS Impasse: Deal Announced Saturday Afternoon

2010-03-20T12:31:00.006-04:00

By El Chupacabra
The New York Times is reporting:: "Major League Soccer and the union that represents its players announced a new five-year collective bargaining agreement after marathon negotiating sessions under the auspices of a federal mediator in Washington. The announcement came early Saturday afternoon on a conference call."

The Washington Post reports that the owners agreed to a "re-entry draft" for players out of contract at the conclusion of the season.

Some Signs of Movement as MLS Strike Deadline Looms

2010-03-18T23:40:00.014-04:00

It may not seem like it, but there were positive signs today that the MLS labor dispute may be headed toward a resolution that would avert the strike deadline looming just 4 days away.

An anonymous player representative told ESPN's Jeff Carlisle that the union are now seeking "flexibility in player movement" instead of outright free agency. "We know we can't have true free agency within single entity," the player said.

It was the first public conciliatory note from the players in weeks, and it comes after a string of public statements by the owners in the last few days that were clearly part of a concerted strategy of bravado and intimidation. (More on that here.)

This movement toward a compromise by the union on the key issue of free agency is positive not only because it shows that the union continues to bargain in good faith but also because free agency is a major sticking point for the league bosses who view it as a direct assault on their monopolistic "single entity" system, which they have fought so hard to prop up.

The fact that union reps are willing to move on this key issue bodes well for a compromise, and there is still plenty of room for a final deal that improves player rights and freedom of movement without gutting the owners' precious single entity model.

Then there was this positive statement from Seattle Sounders defender Taylor Graham, although it "definitely" falls in the "duh" category: "Our goal is not to strike ... It's definitely not in the players' interests for the league not to survive; and it's definitely not in the league's interest for that to happen."

One source told El Luchador by email: "We don't want to strike, but we will if we have to. We're hopeful that in the coming days, we can find some room for agreement."

There was positive movement on the League's' part as well, as owners demonstrated a modicum of decency by agreeing to pay for almost 2 dozen players to fly to Washington to participate in this last round of talks.

Union stalwart Pat Onstad told Jeff Carlisle: "I think [the league] wants a representative from each club to be there, and frankly, so do we. I think everybody needs to be there. It's an important decision for both sides."

But don't get too excited. Lest you prematurely conclude that owners have any respect at all for fans or players, check out what the league's most powerful owner and lead douche bag, LA Galaxy owner Tim Leiweke, had to say: "Even if it means that we go a year without soccer, so be it ... We will wait as long as it takes. We will never, ever agree to change the system." That last sentence is not the kind of thing mediators like to hear around the bargaining table. "Never, ever change" is more like the type of thing you typically hear from teenagers and tea baggers.

Meanwhile, MLS Commissioner Don Garber continued to ignore an invitation from fan group MLS Solidarity to appear in an open debate over the labor impasse on World Football Daily.

Finally, the players made clear that while they are willing to move on free agency, they will not be had. Chicago Fire defender and union rep. C.J. Brown told Fox Soccer Channel: "If they don't want to budge on anything, then it's a done deal, we're striking."

COME my tan-faced children,
Follow well in order, get your weapons ready,
Have you your pistols? have you your sharp-edged axes?
Pioneers! O pioneers!

For we cannot tarry here,
We must march my darlings, We must bear the brunt of danger,
We the youthful sinewy races, all the rest on us depend,
Pioneers! O pioneers!

Rhetoric in MLS Labor Strife Heats Up: Owners Piss Themselves

2010-03-17T22:51:00.011-04:00

The war of rhetoric continued to heat up today just 5 days short of the strike deadline, with MLS owners rattling their sabers, putting lifts in their shoes, and fluffing up the comb-overs on their puny, greedy heads.

"I just hope the players understand the implication of the threats they're making to strike because if they do in fact go on strike, then that forces the owners to do something very aggressive and very different," Real Salt Lake owner Dave Checketts told the Desert News.

Having been exposed in the national soccer community as frauds, the owners clearly have calculated that fear-mongering is the only tool available to them in their quest to force the players into submitting to another collective bargaining agreement that holds the latter as indentured servants.

"I've always said that 'MLS' stands for Major League Slavery," said World Football Daily's Steven Cohen.

Just picture Checketts stuttering, sweating and blinking rapidly as he says the following: "I just came from a meeting with several owners and the commissioner down here in Los Angeles, and we know exactly what we'll do. These are all owners who've been in the NBA, they've been in the NHL, some of them own Major League Baseball teams even today. We know what we'll do. We have a plan if the players strike."

If that "plan" involves bringing in scabs to play "games" owners think "fans" will pay money to watch, then they are higher than a Blues Traveler fan at Bonarroo.

Lest you conclude that Checketts is a lone voice crying out in the wilderness, witness Seattle Sounders Kingpin Joe Roth's hysterical statement to the Seattle Times: “From an entertainment standpoint, we haven’t made enough of an imprint on the national psyche," he said as he pissed himself. "I don’t think there will be a national outcry like with the NFL if somehow we wouldn’t be out there for a year – which would be terrible. Everyone would lose their jobs. We would all lose our franchises. And that would be that."

But as LA Galaxy, Everton and USMNT star Landon Donovan pointed out this week to ESPN, the players are not trying to destroy the economics of the league. Said Donovan: "I think we've made it clear from the beginning that we're not into the idea of bankrupting the league and asking for tons of monetary increases. We just want basic rights other players around the world get."

"There are realities to the business that we're in and unfortunately for too long the business has been one-sided," Donovan continued. "We need basic rights if we're going to continue playing. We want rights that are afforded to other players in other countries around the world that we don't have here."

From the earliest days of the labor movement, the first tactic owners consistently have employed is fear. Early 20th-century coal operators smeared strikers with accusations that foreign communists were behind their efforts to achieve fair wages and working conditions, using words like "insurrection" and "Bolshevik revolution" to describe strike threats. Oftentimes, physical violence accompanied the heated rhetoric. Today, MLS owners have only words as empty as their stadiums will be if they try to stage scab matches.

As Jimmy Reed said: "Big boss man, can't you hear me when I call? Big boss man, you ain't so big, you just talk, and that's all."

MLS Owners Called Out: El Luchador Speaks on World Football Daily

2010-03-17T10:10:00.017-04:00

By El Chupa

Nordecke Luchador, appeared on World Football Daily yesterday in a truly righteous meeting of the minds. Click below to view a rare video appearance by the leading fan-spokesperson for the rights of the players in the ongoing labor struggle with the men who control the means of production in Major League Soccer. El Luchador, Kenny Hassan and Steven Cohen speak truth to power in these two segments also available on YouTube.

In a late breaking development today, the group MLS Solidarity issued a challenge to Don Garber to appear on WFD and debate El Luchador.

"The 175 members of MLS Solidarity do hereby challenge MLS Commissioner Don Garber to appear with the Nordecke Luchador on World Football Daily to debate the MLS labor showdown. Refusal to appear for this debate or even respond to this challenge will be understood as a tacit admission that the MLS owners' position is morally bankrupt and completely indefensible."

Sigi Schmidt on the MLS CBA

2010-03-15T22:42:00.002-04:00

Former Crew Skipper and soccer Zen Master Sigi Schmid this week had some perhaps unintentionally prophetic words on the current MLS labor showdown. Speaking on World Football Daily, the current Seattle Sounders coach drew on his background in business and accounting to size up the negotiations underway in D.C. between league management and the MLS Players Union.

"It's a negotiation, and when there's a negotiation there's going to be compromise, and compromise means that both parties give up something and both parties gain something," Schmid told WFD's Stephen Cohen and Kenney Hassan. "So, nobody gets their absolute world. Nobody ends up with the world according to the way they want it, and the other group doesn't end up with the world the way they wanted it. It ends up being somewhere in the middle."

"The give and take's got to come from both sides."

Whether he knew it or not, Schmid hit on the fundamental root of the current stand off. This is it: After 15 years of absolute control over the terms of labor in MLS, the men who control the capital, the owners find it inconceivable that they should give anything up. They have been incapable of compromise.

So, the negotiations have failed, the Collective Bargaining Agreement has expired, and we now sit just 7 days from a strike. And make no mistake, if the owners do not compromise, there will be a strike.

Speaking on Fox Football Fone In on Monday night, Kansas City Wizards union representative Josh Wolff reinforced all the signals that has been coming in to MLS Solidarity, the fan support group for the union.

"We obviously have a long week ahead of us ... We don't want to disappoint the fans," he said. "But unless there's something there that's fair for the players -- and that's all we're really asking for -- unless that's there, then we don't expect to be starting the season."

For his part, Schmid was characteristically balanced and hopeful.

"I can understand some of the points the players are raising. I can understand some of the points the owners are raising as well," he said.

A working class German immigrant, Schmid said the only experience he has had with work a stoppage was his brewery-worker father walking out with the Teamsters, which he said made for tough times.

"I've got my fingers crossed that it doesn't happen," he said.

The Mysteries of the MLS Labor Showdown

2010-03-14T14:59:00.016-04:00

By Nordecke Luchador

Tune in this Tuesday to World Football Daily with Stephen Cohen and Kenny Hassan, when the head of MLS Solidarity will expose Don Garber, Mark Abbott and the other suits in the MLS front office for the soulless, shortsighted, corporate thugs that they are. The specific time will be announced Monday. As the Nordecke Luchador prepares to face the U.S. Soccer Nation, he offers this blog post to put the current labor struggle into perspective.

The Three Mysteries of the MLS Labor Showdown:

Mystery No. 1: What does the league want? Commissioner Garber has spoken in Orwellian Doublespeak from the beginning, saying such nonsense as: "We remain hopeful" and "We will not agree to any deal that compromises the long-term viability of the league." But the league bosses have never once explained exactly why they believe the league cannot give the majority of players guaranteed rather than "semi-guaranteed" contracts and keep the league economically viable. "Semi-guaranteed" means nothing. The current structure is so slanted in favor of the owners that it is an international embarrassment.

Mystery No. 2: Where is the Union leadership? At a time when they clearly should be making their case forcefully and vocally, the Players Union has been silent. Sure, both the league and the players have agreed to a gag order imposed by Federal Mediator George H. Cohen, but there are ways around such an order that a savvy union could use to make their case to the public. The home page for the MLS Players Union lists this top "news" item: Chicago Fire sign Dutch Player Collins John. There is nothing on the site about the most important moment in the history of the league, the union and perhaps American soccer history. The Union doesn't even acknowledge that there is a dispute and explain why they can't talk. The most recent "news release" is an Aug. 14,2008, statement about the SuperLiga. .

So kudos to Toronto FC defender Nick Garcia who broke the silence last week when he said he expects the players to strike if a new collective bargaining agreement is not negotiated before the start of the regular season. Article Here.

But it remains a mystery why Bob Foose and the other union leaders don't find ways to garner more public understanding and support for their cause. If the public understood just how poorly the players are treated by the current CBA relative to every other major sports league, they might understand that this isn't a battle between million dollar athletes and million dollar owners. This is about a league that wants to maintain the status quo and continue to treat the product on the field (the labor) as second class citizens.

Union President Bob Foose and the players are working to alter the structure of MLS player contracts. The current agreement offers few guaranteed contracts and "semi-guaranteed" contracts are anything but a legal, binding set of obligations by the league as they allow the team bosses to cut players before July 1 without having to fullfill their obligation under the terms of the original agreement

Equally important there is no free agency, so a player who gets cut by the single-entity league has virtually no chance to seek employment on another team. After players are released their teams retain their rights which forces other teams to trade for those rights if they want to sign that player. This makes it very difficult for the players to negotiate in order to find a new home. As such, they don't even own their own labor, which in this case is the talent they bring to the field as one of the best soccer workers in the entire US. Remember, they aren't cut by their team per se, they are cut by the entire league. This is tantamount to a worker at GM being fired and then prevented from taking his skills over to Ford. In the rest of the working world it's called collusion, and it's unconstitutional and about as American as Vietnam, Halliburton and the River Rouge Massacre. The end result is that players are entangled in options that maximize the power of the league over individual players to an extent that no American worker would tolerate.

The whole system is highly exploitive of lower-level players who are left with sweatshop wages and no measure of control over their careers. (Keep in mind, for example, that the Crew's Steven Lenhart’s base salary in 2009 was less than $34,000. This was a huge increase over his 2008 salary of $12,900 when he was on the developmental squad, but hardly the wage of someone whose skills place him in the top 1% of all American soccer workers). For more on MLS salaries, read this article from the Luchametric archive.

All the union wants is a collective bargaining agreement that is consistent with US sport economics and US labor values and that abides by the same rules as the rest of the soccer planet under FIFA.

For a detailed analysis of the many injustices built into the present system by the MLS, read this article by the Houston Chronicle's Jose De Jesus Ortiz.

Mystery No. 3: Who are the scabs? Reports have been inconsistent on the exact number of players who voted to strike last week. Steven Goff reported in his Soccer Insider "Blog" that the vote was 350-2. ESPN's Jeff Carlisle and other sources have reported the vote was 383-2. But no one has denied the story that the players voted overwhelmingly to strike if a deal is not reached by 12:01 March 23. And all reports are that there were only two dissenters. MLS Solidarity is working its networks to uncover the names, and when discovered they will be reported at www.Luchametric.com.

There are two sides to every struggle: What side, you on?

Crew Preview No. I: Black and Gold Stand Pat but with Two Choice Exceptions

2010-03-13T09:07:00.004-05:00

By El Chupa

The staff at Nordecke Luchador are hard at work preparing our pre-season rankings in spite of the impending, righteous and highly justified strike by MLS players. We back the players 150% and blame the unimaginative, unenlightened, unethical and dishonest hacks in the league office at the International House of Soccer for the impasse.

But let's pretend the season IS really about to begin. Here's a cursory overview of what we've noticed thus far.

A quick look here (free registration may be required and scroll down to the latest post) and you'll notice that no team made fewer off-season moves than did the Crew. The two pickups they did make are impressive.

Sergio Herrera is a journeyman International Columbian who has bounced around but--and no propaganda, wishful thinking, or bullshit here--should bring experience and solid striking skills up front. We think he is more than capable of replacing Moreno. Moreno produced only 12 SOG in 22 games with four goals in 2009. These numbers are respectable but Herrera is more-than-capable of the same contribution if not more.

Super Draft pick Dilly Duka (coolest name ever? Or goofiest name ever? Discuss...) is a young talent who is a US U-20 international and just the type of young player teams should be scouting and acquiring to build for the future. The Crew showed last year that should Big Willy (um, "Guillermo" is Latinate for "William") go down or be limited in appearances due to age, the team needs a midfield creator. Replacing Willy is too much to expect from Duka, who has yet to play a minute in a regular season MLS game. But it's nice to know the team is looking to the future in acquiring Duka, who could have gone much higher than 8th in the first round of the Super Draft.

We also have to admit that El Chupa, for one, was rather pessimistic about the Crew's chances against Tolouca, a tough Mexican club in mid-season form. Their strong showing (admittedly at home against a team hailing from a country whose natives apparently are incapable of playing well in "arctic" central Ohio in freaking March) suggests strongly that the suits upstairs may have made the right decision to essentially stand pat this off season, giving the team's established players, starters and reserves alike, a chance to gel further. If Lenhart and Rogers continue to mature and develop as we think they should, the Crew should again be extremely competitive. Last year's late-season meltdown will hopefully not repeat itself this year. And Crew loyalists can and should expect nothing less than a shot at both the Supporters Shield and the MLS Cup. We'll break down the team's numbers in a separate post.

In the meantime, remember the immortal words of Abraham Lincoln: "Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if Labor had not first existed. Labor is superior to capital, and deserves much the higher consideration."

Word!

MLS Solidarity Sets Clock, Issues Edict

2010-03-13T08:35:00.003-05:00

The fan group MLS Solidarity today added a countdown timer to its Web site to remind the U.S. soccer community and the capitalist money-grubbers in MLS management that time is running out to make a deal and save the season.

"Don Garber, Mark Abbott and the other bosses at MLS need to wake up and realize that we are dangerously close to the brink here," said MLS Solidarity Presidente Nordecke Luchador. "The clock is ticking for them to come to the table honestly."

The group has a Facebook page and an underground network of players and operatives within MLS. In addition to the countdown clock, MLS Solidarity issued the following edict:

We the fans of Major League Soccer call on the management of the league to finally abandon their dishonest, selfish position and come to the negotiating table in good faith. We stand in solidarity with the players, and we stand ready to support them by any means necessary.

Multiple sources report that the players on Friday voted 383-2 to go on strike if a deal is not reached by 12:01 Eastern Time on March 23.

The union's collective bargaining agreement has expired, and league management have indicated they would be willing to start the season March 23 under the terms of the expired agreement. By voting to strike, the players have called the managers' bluff.

"They have not been negotiating in good faith, and we needed to show that we are united and serious," one player told MLS Solidarity. "We will not blink. If there's no agreement, we strike. Period."

Negotiators met twice this week with a federal mediator in Washington but the players moved no nearer their goals of more guaranteed contracts and greater free agency opportunities.

"The meetings this week were productive and we scheduled a number of additional meetings," MLS president Abbott lied to the Associated Press.

Remaining business for the group includes outing the 2 scabs who voted not to strike.

CBA Must Change if MLS is Ever Going to be Truly Major League

2010-03-11T11:55:00.015-05:00

By El Chupa

As El Chupa has returned the focus of his massive intellect to the MLS and EPL, he's run across more than a few references to MLS fans who actually think that teams in the MLS can compete in the EPL or the other European Leagues. Such would-be rocket scientists often cite the dominance of the few teams at the top of the various tables, believing MLS clubs could take on, say, Portsmouth and win. There are also apparently MLS "haters" who take every opportunity to bash the MLS given its obvious inferiority. Allow El Chupa to set the record straight. Number one: the MLS is not even close to the real major leagues; number two: who cares? Number three: only renegotiating the current draconian CBA will make the league better.

First off, what do we and the players want? The following: free agency; guaranteed contracts; quality of life concessions; a higher minimum salary. Note that El Chupa also thinks the players should trade all four of the above for a salary cap or some measure that could keep salaries in line with the economics of the league so the league doesn't implode. However, we also think that the league has to open its books and move toward some sort of revenue sharing or luxury tax on the salaries of big stars so that teams in larger markets don't dominate the league and (most importantly) so that salaries aren't held down artificially by the league in order to maximize profits for the league at the expense of the players who are, in fact, the product. But then again, we support health care reform, so we're probably socialist radicals.

But what about the overall quality of the league? Prior to the Crew’s surprising draw on Tuesday, Brian Strauss over at Soccer Fanhouse painted a rather bleak picture of the Crew's and the entire MLS' prospects in the CONCACAF Champions League:

"Since 2001, not a single MLS team has reached the Champions Cup/League finals. The performance since the competition was expanded two years ago has been awful. In the 2008-09 Champions League, MLS compiled a shocking 2-10-6 record. This year it is a less humiliating 7-9-8, but just one of its five entrants (Toronto FC claimed Canada's spot) advanced to the quarterfinals. The fact that the league gets so many spots in the competition is, frankly, indefensible."

Strauss' larger point was about the relative competitiveness of the MLS compared to other leagues. "Could an MLS team compete in England or Spain? People ask these questions as if they matter. It's a fantasy. Clubs in those leagues are barely playing the same sport."

That the MLS is inferior to the major European leagues is obvious. Yes, the European tables are dominated by a few clubs with huge bank accounts, and there is no revenue sharing or salary cap in the European leagues as there is in the NBA, NFL and NHL. This leads to only a few teams having a legitimate shot at a league title. The various national cups (FA cup, King’s Cup in Spain) and the UEFA leagues offer much compensation for these deficiencies, however.

Regardless, MLS fans have to remember that not only are there first divisions in Europe, there are dozens of lower divisions brimming with talent. The MLS’ competitive deficiencies are a result of the fact that it lacks a firmly established, highly sophisticated, highly efficient and productive soccer structure as in Europe which could train and produce talent from grade-school on up. Arsenal’s Samir Nasri, whose stunning goal in Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League match against Porto is worth watching over and over, was signed by Pennes Mirabeau at the age of six. There are millions of young men playing soccer in the streets of Europe; and there are sophisticated and established systems for funneling those players into developmental leagues and beyond. The US system is absolutely Paleolithic by comparison. This is one reason why Nordecke Luchador would love to see the MLS and the USL combined allowing for relegation and promotion. But I digress.

US soccer has gotten to the point where our starting XI are legitimate contenders on the international stage—not to win the World Cup but to qualify and compete. We own the CONCACAF and that should not change, much to the chagrin of our South American compadres (do they play soccer in Canada?) But we are not deep. Our B teams have performed miserably since the Confederations Cup, and Bradley hopefully now knows what serious fans of the Yanks have sadly come to realize in the last year: one injury (Davies, Onyewu) and we don’t have the developmental structure to replace them.

Pay attention the next time you watch La Liga, Serie A, the EPL or the Bundesliga. Notice how often a starting player you would kill to have play for your MLS team or the USMNT is mentioned as not making his home country’s squad in South Africa this summer. My reaction is often: you’ve got to be kidding me? How many freaking world class strikers does France freaking need?! The US simply doesn’t have the same "problem." If Torres goes down for Liverpool in the next few weeks with a torn ACL, Spain can replace him. Without Davies, the US is in serious trouble. There are starters on the USMNT who play in Europe in the lower divisions rather than the MLS. Meanwhile, there are MLS "stars" who when they play as part of the USMNT "B" team reveal just how shallow is our talent pool. Conor Casey is one example. He scores boo-coo goals in the MLS but doesn't look even fast enough let alone satisfactorily skilled to play at the international level.

So the MLS has a ways to go. But El Chupa’s other point is this: who cares?

Look, if you watch the MLS because you want to delude yourself that it is a legitimate, world-class professional soccer league, you’re either under the age of twelve or you’re a moron. You should watch the MLS because it’s all we've got, because you desperately want the league to get better and it needs your support to get there, and because you want your grandkids to live in a world where the MLS has developed to the point where a country of 300 million (the US) can produce not just 25, but 50 or 75 or 100 players who can compete with the players in countries like Spain (45 million); Holland (17 million); or the Czech Republic (10 million).

The key, really, is whether the MLS business model is moving us toward that day or if the league is a mere fast-sport franchise (the International House of Soccer)--one that is slightly profitable as a business but will never garner the market-share necessary to further US soccer development as a whole. We think the latter. And we think changing the CBA is a vital step towards insuring that within a generation or two we will have produced not one Nasir but dozens and that they will be playing in cities across the country in a truly major soccer league.

One more thing: Alexi Lalas is a douche.

Group Formed to Support MLS Players Union

2010-03-08T10:27:00.002-05:00

In less than 24 hours nearly 100 people have signed on to a Facebook group formed to support the MLS Players Union in their struggle to achieve economic justice against the exploitive labor practices of the International House of Soccer (AKA Major League Soccer).

The Nordecke Luchador formed the group MLS Solidarity to show which side the fans are on.

"League bosses Don Garber and Mark Abbott (pictured at left) need to see that the fans will not tolerate the continued exploitation of the players," El Luchador said in a written statement. "We in Crew Soccer Nation call on our brothers and sisters in other Fandoms to step up, join our group and demonstrate where they stand. The old union cry is as true today as it was 50 years ago: 'Which Side Are You On?'"

For a detailed analysis of the many insustices built into the present system by the MLS , read this article by the Houston Chronicle's Jose De Jesus Ortiz.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal, Spurs

2010-03-07T17:19:00.003-05:00

By El Chupa

El Chupa is back after a long hiatus with the updated EPL Power Rankings. There are no real surprises. Chelsea is on top followed by Man U and then Arsenal. Given Chelsea's game in hand over Man U, our readers should not be surprised at the difference between our rankings and the actual point standings. Plus, the difference between the two teams is negligible.

The differences among the top three are also minor. Chelsea is about .25 of a StandDev above Arsenal, which is not much. Spurs are a solid fourth but our rankings reveal a small but significant gap between the top three and Spurs. This is largely due, we think, to the difference between the top three and Spurs in goals scored. The top three all are at or above 2.3 Goals per Game while Spurs has managed only 1.79. The bottom line for Spurs fans, however, is that the teams lurking below them are all extremely close in the rankings suggesting strongly that they all have a legitimate shot at the fourth spot and a European tour next year--especially if they have any home games against Spurs left in the schedule (we don't have time to check that out at the moment).

Finally, TOFFEES! Everton is really too far behind in PTS to crack the top four, but our rankings show what anyone watching Everton at least since Donovan has joined them if not earlier know: the Toffees are tough and virtually a different team than they were when we went on hiatus. At that time, their LM ranking was in the negative and they were well down in the standings. Now they are a rock solid fifth and ranked ahead of teams ahead of them in the actual PTS standings including Liverpool. We stand by our rankings. Everton beat Chelsea and Man U in February before their no-doubt-disappointing loss to Spurs at White Hart Lane later in the month. Teams going to Everton the rest of the season will face a tough opponent in excellent form. We dig it.

Don Garber's Own Words Deceive Him

2010-03-06T20:30:00.003-05:00

What the MLS Commissioner never explains here is this: Why does the continued growth of the league depend on not honoring players' contracts? Why can't we honor players' contracts and still have economic success for the MLS?

Fellow Leftist in the Struggle Will Mediate MLS Labor Dispute

2010-03-05T23:29:00.002-05:00

Things are looking up for the MLS Players Union, as the man assigned to arbitrate the ongoing labor dispute over the expired and oppressive Collective Bargaining Agreement is a long-time pro-labor activist appointed by Barack Obama to the federal agency responsible for resolving conflicts between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie.

Union President Bob Foose continues to refuse to comment on the situation, but the Associated Press reports that the capitalists who control the means of production at the International House of Soccer and the MLS Players Union “have accepted an offer from George H. Cohen, director of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, to serve as mediator.”

According to this article from the Peggy Browning Fund, Cohen has a 40-year career supporting workers in their struggle against capitalists like Crew General Manager Mark McCullers and their multiple schemes for enriching themselves at the expense of the people who actually produce value in our economy.

According to the article, Cohen is known for his support of the “progressive, union and worker-friendly agenda.”

El Luchador stands side-by-side with all working people in the Crew Soccer Nation as we support our Brothers in Black and Gold in their struggle against the dark side of the Force.

And we salute George H. Cohen for agreeing to help us in our fight to bring economic justice to the MLS.

Columbus and Union Until I Die!

Which side are you on?

Luchador's Return

2010-03-01T22:29:00.003-05:00

Christmas vacation is finally over for the Nordecke Luchador as he returns from his extended annual sabbatical in Cuba, the motherland.

For those who requested cigars, send a note on Facebook.

Much has transpired this winter while the Masked One was away.

The capitalist overlords who run the International House of Soccer have stubbornly pushed MLS to the brink of ruin in their blind and brutal beat down of the workers. Talks continue to get a new collective bargaining agreement. El Luchador predicts the season will start as scheduled, but the dispute will drag on well into the year with a real potential for work stoppage before the play-offs.
Schelotto stood his ground against party boss Mark McCullers and will stay another season.
The Crew signed strength up front to replace Alejandra Moreno with the signing of Columbian Sergio Herrera.
And Jed Zayner launched, then apparently killed a blog that was at times entertaining, vulgar, informative and even occasionally grammatically correct.

Now we stand with just days until the season starts with what my comrade Eric Paxton calls "Crewsgiving," the CONCACAF Champions League match versus Toluca March 9.

This is an extra bonus game that is a vestige of the 2008 Miracle on Grass season.

Dear faithful readers, El Luchador is back. Does my Massiveness offend you?

Nordecke Luchador's Holiday Favorites

2009-12-19T12:47:00.007-05:00

In 1996, the Nordecke Luchador first burst on to the underground Christmas DJ Scene with his breakthrough cult classic LP “What Is Going to Happen?” which climbed to No. 1 on the Bohemian Top 200. After a sabbatical that included stops in Tahoe and Mumbai, El Luchador returns with this instant timeless classic, a compilation of contemporary pieces, remixes and mash-ups, carefully selected to bring a Luchametric groove to any holiday occasion, from Hanukah to Kwanza and everywhere in between. Voted on Twitter as the 2009 recipient of the “Convergence Award,” this study in Americanism brings both comfort and a sense of disquieting rectitude on the long nights of winter. Below is a complete list from the album, which is available only by special order for people who have been nice. Niceness is determined by El Luchador in consultation with Santa. At right is a partial list available for play now. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from The Nordecke Luchador. Go Crew! Columbus Till I Die.

Los Lonely Boys - Feliz Navidad

Ella Fitzgerald - White Christmas

Stephen Colbert - Another Christmas Song

Mary Blige & Sheryl Crow – Rockin Around the Christmas Tree

Blind Boys of Alabama & Tom Waits – Go Tell it on the Mountain

Brian Setzer Orchestra – Sleigh Ride

Staple Sisters - The Last Month of the Year

Bob Crosby & His Orchestra – Skaters Waltz

Brian Setzer Orchestra – My Favorite Things

Stephen Colbert – Can I Interest You in Hannukah?

Neil Diamond – Hark the Herald Angels Sing

Stevie Wonder – The Christmas Song

Frank Sinatra – Ave Maria

Old and In the Way – Angel Band

Judy Garland – Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas

Liza Minnelli – Bye, Bye Blackbird

Grateful Dead – We Bid You Goodnight

US vs England South Africa 2010: English Soccer Tyranny, Like Hell, is not Easily Conquered

2009-12-07T08:48:00.021-05:00

By El Chupacabra

This is a rant. If you don't like them, tune out now.

US v England, Rustenberg, South Africa, June 12, 2010 at 20:30.

It's on people. Don't try to talk El Chupa off of the ledge. This ain't no friendly. El Chupa is not an Anglophile--oh, no, far from it. Pack your toothbrush, forswear fish and chips, English ale and Elizabeth Hurley and prepare to get it on. Seriously, El Chupa will never forgive Italy for Brian McBride's broken nose and the two red cards in 2006 when we held the cowardly Azzurri to a tie. Never. Few teams other than Italy and Mexico raise El Chupa's blood pressure. But this June he will add another vaunted foe to his list of nasties: Rooney and company--the limey bastards.

We may watch, follow and admire the EPL. But we do so for its international flavor and quality of play. The fact that it has Drogbas, and Van Persies and Torres. We don't watch, follow and admire it because toothless chavs populate the stands high on meth and cheap, high-alcohol English lager.

We were thinking of writing a funny piece using the usual stereotypes of the English in an ironic, gently humorous fashion. But we gave up. And we're dead serious. If you think any football fan in Europe has respect for American soccer, the American team, or American soccer fans, you're on crack. They don't. They may like Donovan, and Dempsey and Howard, but they know we're not deep, and they know and love the fact that our team embarrassed itself and the country in Germany in 2006.

Have you ever noticed how violent are the matches between our boys and the big powers in world soccer? Have you ever noticed that we never get the calls in said matches? And that we frequently acquire red cards on the most ridiculous of pretenses? It's not a conspiracy. It's a deep-seeded psychological resentment of American political, cultural and economic hegemony.

In the view of most of the soccer world, the beautiful game is theirs not ours, and we're like the handsome and successful outsider who comes to the wedding and all the girls want to do him and the local boys get pissed and wait outside to beat the leaving crap out of him when he tries to leave in his fancy new car none of them can afford. You've seen that movie? Right.

As such, I urge my readers to step up and stifle any friendly talk around the water cooler or in your local pub about this mother of all matches. This ain't no weeny roast. Get your Gadsden flag ready, stock the fridge with the American craft and micro brews that now put European and British ales to shame and get ready to freaking rumble. Yeah, we respect the other team, but we don't like them, not at all. It's time to earn the respect US soccer fans so desperately crave by sticking a big thumb in the eye of the Lion.

There's a malaise of mind in American soccer given its status as a sport of the white, upper-middle class, that sees it as a gentlemanly game much like tennis and golf. Bullshit. Have you tuned in on a sleepless night to the 1:00 am game on FSC or Gol to watch an obscure match from South America or Europe only to be astonished at how physical is the play? This ain't tiddly winks, as Elizabeth Lambert has so ably and admiringly demonstrated. And it's time American soccer fans acquire the ruthless madness of fanaticism required to urge our boys to victory. In the words of Thomas Paine:

"The summer soldier [think: polite American soccer fan] and the sunshine patriot [think: bandwagon fan] will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman."

In short, it's time to get just wee bit angry people, it's not time to get scared. This is Lexington and freaking Concord not an exhibition game of Old Maid. El Chupa is not at all scared. He can't wait for the bodies to hit the floor. Any US fan who says otherwise better step back.

"Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph."

EPL Handicapping: Aston Villa over Hull City

2009-12-04T17:34:00.006-05:00

By El Chupacabra
Villa over Hull at Villa Park (no U.S. TV). Do it. Here's why.

This is not a terribly interesting weekend in EPL betting-wise or even just in terms of good matches. Regarding the latter, Chelsea at Man City could be a good one to watch (its the only one that looks remotely interesting), but we think Chelsea will choke off City's attack and then dutifully put in a goal or two (or three). But other than this contest, there are no marquee match ups.

Hull at Villa is the best bet of the weekend. Villa at home at -220 earns you just under 50% and its the surest thing you'll find this weekend at decent odds. Remember, look for home teams you think have the best chance of winning and try to stay around a 50% return or better. Villa leads Hull in the Luchametric by over 1.0 StandDevs. Hull's recent form is definitely better than Villa, but Villa is at home looking for a sure three points from a league bottom-feeder. What's more, Villa are one of four finalists in the Carling Cup and have not lost at home since the opening day of the season, winning four of their last six matches in front of their own fans.

OUR PREDICTION: Villa to win.

MONEY LINE: Villa-220 Hull +755 Draw +358

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Villa - The Villans have an advantage of nearly 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicative of a significant competitive difference between any two teams.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Villa played at Portsmouth Tuesday in the Carling Cup. Hull has rested since last weekend's match away. Still, Hull has to travel to 137 miles or 2.5 hours by bus to get to Villa Park.

MOTIVATION: Draw - Villa's recent form and position in the table give them all the incentive in the world to grab three points and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Hull look to continue their recent form and continue to climb out of relegation and erase the nightmare of the first few weeks of the season.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Hull. Hull has earned nine points in their last six matches, Villa seven. Hull has two wins and two draws in their last four.

INJURIES: Draw - Both teams have have a few injuries but no major absences to report.

EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea

2009-12-01T10:43:00.007-05:00

By El Chupacabra

The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's fixtures. As always you may download an Excel file with the data here. Chelsea is on top (duh) followed by Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. Chelsea has opened quite a bit of space in the official table and in the rankings. They are now nearly a full StandDev (.92) over second place Man U. We have Arsenal ahead of Spurs by .37 of a Stand Dev. We think the nine goals Spurs scored against Wigan were a fluke and that they'll move further down the rankings in the weeks ahead.

Chelsea's dominance is most obvious on defense. They allow the fewest Goals Against per game in the league (.57), the fewest Shots on Goal Against per game in the league (2.5) and the lowest percentage of SOGA to SHTs Against (.26). This latter stat tells us that only 26% of the oppositions' shots are actually on goal, giving us a sense of how few quality chances Chelsea actually allows its opponents (the league average is 37%)

They also lead the league in Recent Form, and have now beaten Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. The season is far from over, and Man U lurks five points behind with a home game against Chelsea still to come. But seriously people, the Blues have a shot at the EPL crown, the Champions league and the FA cup. I'd still take Barca over Chelsea at this point, but what a match it would be.

Union Till I Die: Which Side Are You On?

2009-11-13T06:42:00.014-05:00

By El Luchador
The capitalists who run the International House of Soccer (MLS) have long treated the workers like 19th Century French coal miners. For some time now, El Luchador’s sources within the soccer labor movement have warned that negotiations have not gone well for the collective bargaining agreement that expires at the end of this year.

The Columbus Dispatch this morning sensationalizes the situation on its front page. (Read article here.)

Brother Shawn Mitchell writes:

Major League Soccer players will strike or be locked out next season unless collective-bargaining negotiations between their union and the league make a drastic improvement, sources with knowledge of negotiations said.

A collective-bargaining proposal made by the league last week was "very disappointing," said Crew goalkeeper William Hesmer.

Set aside for a moment that Ohio's Greatest Home Newspaper will only put soccer on the front page when it is a negative story about a labor dispute. (Just think if the Crew were building a casino).

The Major League Soccer Players Union was formed in April 2003 to promote the best interests of all MLS Players. The founding members of the Players Union’s Executive Board included Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, Chris Klein, Alexi Lalas and Ben Olsen. The Players Union serves as the exclusive collective bargaining representative for all current players in Major League Soccer.

League Pit Boss Don Garber strikes an optimistic tone in the Mitchell article, saying there is “plenty of time to finalize a new agreement … There will be many more meetings, many more discussions about a wide variety of issues.

El Luchador encourages his faithful followers to read the current collective bargaining agreement, which is available here.

You will see that it is structured to give the capitalists who control the means of production at the International House of Soccer the maximum ability to exploit the labor of the brave men who actually go out on the field and do the work.

Essentially, the American economic model for professional soccer is a form of 21^st Century indentured servitude.

Union President Bob Foose and the players are working to alter the structure of MLS player contracts. The current agreement does not offer guaranteed contracts, or any form of free agency and entangles the players in one-way options that maximize the power of the teams over individual players. In most cases, players are forced to sign semi-guaranteed contracts, which allow the team bosses to cut players before July 1 without having to pay out their contracts.

This is highly exploitive of the lower level players, who are left with sweatshop wages and no measure of control over their careers. (Keep in mind, for example, that Steven Lenhart’s base salary this year was less than $34,000. That was a huge increase over his 2008 of $12,900.) For more on MLS salaries, read this article from the Luchametric archive.

After players are released, their teams retain their rights, which forces other teams to trade for those rights if they want to sign that player, thus making it very difficult for the players to negotiate and find a new home.

All the union wants is a collective bargaining agreement that abides by the same rules as the rest of the planet under FIFA.

As Crew Midfielder Brian Carroll told the Dispatch: “It's about rights more than money. But we want things to be fair. That's all anybody can ask for."

El Luchador stands behind his brothers in Black & Gold and across the MLS as they fight for economic justice.

Arsenal and Chelsea Outpace the Pack in Updated Power Rankings

2009-11-10T08:54:00.011-05:00

By El Chupacabra
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Monday's match at Anfield. Arsenal is back on top followed, again extremely closely, by Chelsea. Man U and Man City round out the top four but are significantly back of the top two.

Notice that a mere .16th of a StandDev separates the Gunners from the Blues. Chelsea has more points and more wins, but Arsenal has more goals (as always, you can look at the comprehensive data here). The Goal Differential of both teams is nearly identical: 22 for Arsenal; 21 for Chelsea. Arsenal has played one game less than Chelsea, and this accounts for the difference in wins to some extent.

Before you Blues fans blow a gasket, consider that the difference between the two teams is really negligible, at least statistically, but it comes down to this: Arsenal is a better offensive club, Chelsea the better defensive club. And Chelsea is probably more balanced overall.
The Luchametric weighs a number of different variables, and it could be that we need to look at the defensive side of the model. We have a measure for Quality Scoring Chances, for example, and in this measure Arsenal is clearly superior. But we're still looking at comprenhesive statistical measures of a team's defense.

We can say this, however: A full 42 % of the Gunners' Shots on Goal become goals, compared to 30% for Chelsea. That's a 25% difference. Also, 32% of Arsenal's SOG Against become Goals Against, compared to 25% for Chelsea (the league average is 25%; the league leaders are Villa with an impressively low 18%). Arsenal allows 1.27 GA per game, while Chelsea allows a mere .67 GA per game. And Chelsea allows only 2.67 SOGA per game, while Arsenal allows 4.0 SOGA. That's fairly significant. Chelsea is unbelievably stingy. You may have noticed on Sunday if you caught the game against Man U that Chelsea had the usual four man back line, but then frequently had another two men behind that. They were in essence playing a sort of 2-4-3-1 or you could just call it a 5-4-1. This shows both their respect for Man U and the genius of Ancelotti.

At this point, given the history of the league and of the big four, its understandable why so much attention still gets paid to Liverpool, who really are in trouble at this point, and that so many people continue to doubt Wenger's confidence that his club is playing for the title. But the evidence is clear: this year, barring injuries (Bendtner), Chelsea and Arsenal are the cream of the league. We look forward to the November 29 match at Emirates against Chelsea. This will be the true test of the two teams and should be some outstanding football. The league's best attacking club against the league's most balanced and most stingy club. At Stamford bridge, we'd take Chelsea, but at Emirates, Arsenal will give the Blues all they can handle.

Crew 2, Real Salt Lake 3. The Nordecke Address

2009-11-06T06:40:00.009-05:00

One score minus seven years ago, Clark Hunt's father brought forth on this continent, the Crew Soccer Nation, conceived in revelry, and dedicated to the proposition that all men and women are equal in the Nordecke.

Now, we stand in defeat, having lost a great battle against a violent and undeserving foe, and this loss tests whether Crew Soccer Nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. The battle-field of Crew Stadium stands cold and empty after a promising season ended in misery. And we ask ourselves how we might honor that space and the august Men who dedicated their talent and energy and all their hearts to the battle.

Hesmer, Hejduk, Brunner, Marshall, Padula, Ekpo, Gaven, Carroll, O'Rourke, Schelotto, Moreno, we honor you. Lenhart, Rogers, Garry, Warzycha. We salute you.

It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate, we can not consecrate, we can not hallow, the ground where these men fell in defeat. Our words here are inadequate.

These brave men who struggled there, have consecrated Crew Stadium, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did there.

It is for us the fans, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought for us have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us: that from this humbling defeat at the hands of an incompetent referee and dishonest team, we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion, that we here highly resolve that this defeat shall not have been endured in vain, that Crew Soccer Nation shall have a new birth of glory. And that Soccer of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

Nordecke Luchador joins hands with his brothers and sisters across the land, in solidarity for the Black and Gold, from the Scioto to the Olentangy, from South Bloomfield to Delaware. From Reynoldburg to West Jeff. Columbus Till I Die.

EPL Handicapping: Stoke at Hull City

2009-11-05T18:40:00.010-05:00

By El Chupacabra

We've chosen Stoke at Hull as our pick of the week. And we like Stoke here. We REALLY like Stoke. The odds for this match make it the best bet of this weekend's fixtures. Hull City FC is in absolute turmoil. Given Jozy Altidor's presence on the squad, we'd love to root for the Tigers, but Altidor has behaved like an absolute moron, and Hull is clearly the weakest team in the league. Hull is beat up and their key creator Geovanni is out with two yellows.

OUR PREDICTION: Stoke to Win. Do it.

MONEY LINE: Hull +170 Stoke +150

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Stoke - Hull is one place from the bottom of the EPL Table and at the very bottom of the Luchametric Power Rankings. Stoke has an advantage of 1.3 Standard Devs over Hull. Stoke has had trouble scoring on the road but Hull has had trouble scoring, period, and they give up more goals. Finally, in a close match, even on the road, we expect Stoke to create better chances than Hull. They have a considerable advantage in our measure of quality scoring chances of nearly two full StandDevs.

RECENT TRAVEL: Hull City - Stoke will travel about 140 miles to Hull for the match. Both teams have not played since last weekend.

MOTIVATION: Draw - Hull City is in turmoil and looking to somehow get out of the relegation zone. Stoke City is looking to establish itself as a solid, upper level club and garner an invitation to the Europa League. If the Hull locker room hasn't succumbed already to defeatism, they'll come out swinging.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Stoke - Nine points in its last six matches as compared to Hull's four. Most importantly, Stoke has two wins and a draw in its last three matches.

INJURIES: Advantage: Stoke - Hull is beat up. Stoke is at full strength.

The Logic of a Single Table for MLS: Garber Doesn't Get It

2009-11-05T08:05:00.007-05:00

By El Chupacabra

If you saw the interview with MLS Commissioner Don Garber on Fox Soccer Fone-In on Monday, you saw him respond to a question about implementing a Single Table for the MLS (listen to it here). His response was, and I paraphrase, that he doesn't "get it." His argument is that a single table would make games at the end of the season meaningless.

Said Garber (and I quote): "The Columbus Crew would have won 10 days before the end of the season. They would have been celebrating the championship at a game where they lost.

“I understand the heritage and tradition that people enjoy with a single table. But somebody would have to explain to me how that would be better than what we have now, because I’m not getting it."

Garber's logic is flawed in a few key ways. First and foremost, a single table does not preclude a playoff system. The FIFA tournaments and the UEFA Champions League use a group system and then a knock-out round. One could argue that the current MLS arrangement with two conferences and then a play-off is similar. However, the MLS playoff system as it currently stands takes the top two teams from each group (conference) and then the next four best teams regardless of group (conference). This arrangment essentially amounts to letting the top eight teams in a single table into a knock-out round, which the International House of Soccer calls the MLS Cup. What's worse, the MLS system lets in half of the teams in the league. This year, Real Salt Lake had more losses than wins and amassed a mere 40 pts over the course of the season. The average number of points earned in the league this year was 40.4.

El Chupa agrees that the games at the end of the season should have meaning. But this desire needs to be balanced with the logic of sport--and the logic of logic.

If the purpose of any competition is to determine who is the best team, then clearly the team that does the best over time is the best team. Period. The MLS system allows teams which are clearly inferior a shot at knocking off a better team in a short series. Anything can and will happen in a short home and away series. Rubin Kazan just "won" a home and away series over Barcelona. Yesterday in the frigid cold of Kazan's Central Stadium, Rubin kept six defenders back and essentially played for the draw, stifling Barca's vaunted offensive machine who all looked like they were literally freezing their asses off. Is Rubin a better team than Barca? Hardly. Barca will still most likely make it out of their group along with Inter, and the Russian Premier League champions will end up in the UEFA Europa competition. This is as it should be, as the group stage gives teams the chance to recover from upsets, thus insuring that only the very best teams make it through to the knock-out round

Now, don't El Chupa wrong, he loves it when an underdog sticks it to a better team. It makes for great sport. But such drama doesn't belong in a knock-out round where the true underdogs have no place. In a sound system, the inferior teams will have been eliminated. But in the MLS playoff system, teams that are not even AVERAGE get a shot at being a spoiler, as they aren't eliminated in the "group stage" (regular season).

Garber also spoke of American "sporting traditions and heritage." Um, by this does he mean he wants the International House of Soccer to follow in the footsteps of the NBA and the NHL, where bad teams get rewarded with a playoff spot for monetary reasons only? The NBA system is a joke. But even in the NBA, the first round is seven games, which make it a legitimate test. If the MLS had a three-game knockout round, it would be one thing. But the current system, which doesn't weight away goals like the UEFA competitions, doesn't do justice to the logic of a sport which demands its own distinct and reasonable means of determining not just the winner of individual competitions, but the best team over the course of several competitions.

Yes, some times the best team doesn't win. And that's what makes sport exciting. But the International House of Soccer is clearly going for entertainment value over competitive legitimacy.

We love the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, where Cinderella teams routinely make runs into the Sweet Sixteen--but generally no further and RARELY into the final four. And we certainly think it's the case that truly great teams need to step it up in high pressure situations. But there have to be limits. And we think the current MLS system is unbalanced in favor of sports-O-tainment and of the business of sport. We like salary caps and revenue sharing. We think the European leagues are unbalanced and less interesting than American leagues like the MLS and the NFL where smaller-market teams actually have a chance of being champion. But the fact is: Garber just doesn't get it.

The solution? A single table with a revamped playoff system that reduces the number of teams which make it to the knock-out stage with the compensation of participation in international competitions based on ranking in the single table. Major League Soccer Rumors offers a very interesting possibility here, and it's one El Chupa endorses. Researching this article has resulted in a dismaying number of douche-bags in the blogo-sphere, including Brian Strauss and Paul Pabst, who also don't get it, and who clearly are coming from a rather provincial perspective that bristles rather xenophobically at the infatuation American soccer fans have with the European leagues. To Pabst's credit, he misses only the obvious point that a single table doesn't preclude a playoff system nor is Pabst anti-European. Strauss is just, well, a douche.

If you can track down Garber's email (I failed), send him a note reminding him that as long as MLS continues to cater to American sports fans rather than American soccer fans, the MLS will remain the joke it is in the world of International Pancakes--er, I mean football.

Fight the Power: Come Out Thursday. Do It.

2009-11-04T06:38:00.009-05:00

By El Luchador
Thursday's home playoff match against the violent, undeserving thugs of Real Salt Lake is more than just an epic battle of good versus evil. It is an opportunity for thinking soccer fans who bleed Black and Gold to step up and show the mainstream establishment of Columbus that we do not subscribe to their way of life.

Among Columbus sports fans, there is a long-standing tradition, promoted by the Columbus Dispatch and perfected to an art from by Buckeyes: when the going gets rough, shit all over the coach.

The Dispatch's Mike Arace is trying this week to bring this tradition to the Columbus Crew. Don't let him do it.

In a screed published on Tuesday, Arace asks: "What was coach Robert Warzycha thinking?" He goes on, predictably, to answer that whatever Our Coach was thinking, it was wrong, and it's going to prove fatal, yada, yada, yada.

As is typically the case with the hamburger heads at "Ohio's Greatest Hometown Newspaper," Arace went for the low-hanging fruit, questioning Warzycha's decision to bench Guillermo Barros Schelotto in Game One at RSL.

Employing the Donald Rumsfeld Socratic method of asking sarcastic rhetorical questions, Arace writes: "Isn't that going too far? Was he giving his team its best chance to win? How so?"

This is the same type of Monday-morning whining that goes on every week across Ohio, as Buckeye Fans hammer the coach for every perceived misstep. Fueled by the pundits at the Dispatch and on stations like 610 WTVN, Buckeye fans funnel every disappointment and failure of their own personal lives into thoughtless criticism of their coach.

In Crew Soccer Nation, we stand by our coach. We do not subscribe to the fair weather approach of our Buckeye Brethren. We know that football is a fickle lover, that strategies and tactics are not a science but an art, and that history favors the winners.

Come out Thursday and show the world that we support the Crew through good times and bad. Show Warzycha that we understand and support his decision to start Luchadores Lenhart and Renteria up top in Game One. Show the Man that we shall not be moved by sedition. Show your Buckeye friends how real men and women stand up for their team and their coach in times of difficulty.

El Luchador's prediction: Crew 2-0 RSL. Robert Warzycha 1-0 Michael Arace.

Do it. Columbus 'Till I Die!

EPL Power Rankings: Blues on Top

2009-11-02T19:51:00.004-05:00

By El Chupacabra

The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Wednesday's West Ham v Villa fixture. Chelsea is on top followed EXTREMELY closely by Arsenal. Man U and Man City round out the top four.

Chelsea's nine wins has put them on top of the official league table and at the top of our power rankings. They also allow very few Goals, Shots, and Shots on Goal compared to the rest of the league. Arsenal has scored a league-leading 32 total goals which has contributed much to it's place in the standings. The Gunners have a game in hand and with Chelsea and Man U playing next weekend, Arsenal will have a chance to pass Man U in the official table when they visit Wolves.

Other movement worth noting. Villa have dropped below Spurs as a result of their loss to the Hammers. West Ham itself is much higher in our table than in the official table. We stand by our rankings. The Hammers are better than the results they've achieved thus far.

Also, Portsmouth has climbed out of the cellar and perhaps have turned things around. We shall see.

We'll have more to report once we crunch the numbers.