Crew Attack Stats: Luchametric Exclusive

By MJD
We have preliminary data that show Robbie Rogers needs to step it up.

Nordecke Luchador will be tracking the Crew's attack this season like no other blog on the planet.  To the left is a chart detailing where on the pitch the Crew have produced either a Shot or a Shot on Goal or a Goal.  Note that this chart does not reflect free kicks or penalty kicks.  We're relying on ESPN's Gamecast feature to track the data, and over the Crew's first three games at least, Gamecast does not show where on the field the free kicks are being taken.  Our good friend Colin over at Championship At Best has clued us in on an alternative data source, but we're still working on accessing it.  Once we do, we may be able to provide even more insight.  And kudos to Colin as well for his outstanding work, upon which we've based the above chart.

How to use the chart? Well, it tells us the Crew is getting good opportunities in the box, which is always a good sign you're team is playing well in the offensive phase.  And the attack looks very balanced as well. But the chart is best used in combination with close observation of tactical tendencies in actual games. Is the team looking to push down the wings and cross?  Are we trying to break down defenses in front of the goal and get high-percentage shots on give-and-gos and through balls?  Should the Crew be taking more shots from the top of the box and beyond?  Open beer; drink beer; discuss.

Also, the table below gives us data on the Crew's attack through Saturday's fixture vs the garment clad warriors of RSL.

The Pro and Pro/GM stats are measures we developed to measure an individual player's contribution to his squad's offensive production.  The explanation is here.  Big Willie, Iro, Moffat and Lenhart are the top producers.  Rogers is last.  Notice just how few SOGs the left winger has.  SHTs, yes, but actual dangerous chances?  Not so much.  The other troubling thing we notice is that Big Willie produces a goal or an assist every 67 minutes of play (Min/G+A).  That puts him third in the league behind Buddle (61) and Morales (61.75).  But the rest of the Crew's attackers have yet to step up.  Once again, the Crew are relying too heavily on Schelotto to earn points.  It would be unfair and inaccurate to say the team is one-dimensional, as four players have 6 shots or more over three games.  But we certainly would like to see more goals and assists in the games ahead by the rest of the team's attack.

Notice also that immediately below the Crew's numbers we've included the top offensive players in the MLS this season for comparison.  One thing we'd point out right away is that if any one mentions Conor Casey to you as deserving of a roster spot on the USMNT in South Africa, point out to the would-be Einstein that all three of his goals this season are from PKs, same with Cunningham.  The talk about Buddle, however, may be warranted.

Finally, once we gain access to the new data stream, which will give us such elusive stats as passes created by a player that could have turned into a G or an Assist or a SHT or a SOG but didn't due to the subsequent player messing up or not quite reaching a beautiful through ball, we're going to tweak the metric.  Essentially, we'll be able to add "chances created" to what we already have.  This will allow us to include players, especially midfielders like Donovan, who clearly are producing for their clubs but whose production won't always show up as either a G or an A.

Hagalo, Columbus. 'Til I die...

Moffat to Return for Crew Easter Resurrection Revival Meeting

If there is anything good to say about the Crew’s abysmal 2009 start, it is the fact that teams are already overlooking Columbus on the schedule, and this can give the Crew the stealth factor that contributed to their 2008 success, when opponents did not always get fully loaded for the team that spent most of 2007 in the basement.

Case in point: Colorado Rapids Coach Gary Smith was asked on Fox Football Fone-In on Monday who he had his eye on as the major competition this season.

Here was his answer: “I think Chivas has done a great job given their injury list … Seattle, is a new franchise and has a multitude of bodies that Sigi’s trying to build and that he’s done a wonderful job with. I don’t think you can ever write off Houston or New England. You know, they’ve shown the way they perform. The consistency that they have will always give them an opportunity and put them in a position to challenge for an MLS Cup.”

Who is missing from this picture?

Smith’s Rapids face the Crew at Columbus this Saturday, and yet the 2008 MLS Cup Champions appear to be the last thing on the Colorado skipper’s mind.

You can hardly blame him.

The Crew are off to their worst start in 5 years, with no victories in 4 games, and they are coming off a downright embarrassing 0-2 western road trip where they lost two games in 4 days and looked like they might struggle against teams from Women’s Professional Soccer.

Crew Keeper Will Hesmer has given up 8 goals in 4 games for a 2 goals-against average, the worst in MLS. In 2008 Hesmer gave up a total of 36 goals. In 2009, he is on pace to give up 60.

On the offensive side, the Crew’s 4 goals in 4 games puts them on pace to score 30 goals in the season. Last year they tallied 50.

Meanwhile, the Rapids are off to a 2-1 start and are on a good run, having beaten the LA Galaxy twice in a week, most recently a 4-2 victory on penalty kicks where they came from behind with a man down from a red card in US Open Cup play.

Rapids forwards Conor Casey and Omar Cummings are on fire with 5 goals between them in just 3 games. Casey is second and Cummings is fourth in the league in goals scored.

To make matters worse for Columbus, their injury and ineligibility problems continue with Hejduk (hamstring) likely out for Saturday along with Midfielder Robbie Rogers (left hamstring) and defender Chad Marshall, who might have another concussion and is actually openly discussing the possibility that it could be career-ending.

And big Andy Iro is unavailable because of the questionable red card he got against Chivas on Sunday.

The good news for the Crew is that central midfielder Adam Moffat is ready to play and will make his return on Saturday. This will move Ekpo to the wing where he belongs and hopefully give Columbus a boost. Lord knows they need it.

The Rapids lead the all-time series versus the Crew with 14 victories, 8 losses and 7 ties. The Crew won both encounters last year, 2-1 at home on June 28 (video) and 2-0 July 27 (video).

Columbus Projected Lineup
William Hesmer
Jed Zayner
Chad Marshall
Danny O'Rourke
Gino Padula
Eddie Gaven
Brian Carroll
Emmanuel Ekpo
Robbie Rogers
G. Barros Schelotto
Alejandro Moreno


Colorado Projected Lineup
Preston Burpo
Kosuke Kimura
Ugo Ihemelu
Cory Gibbs
Jordn Harvey
Nick LaBrocca
Pablo Mastroeni
Mehdi Ballouchy
Colin Clark
Conor Casey
Omar Cummings

Weathering the Storm: Crew Financial Situation a Mixed Bag

As the Dow Jones Industrial average hit a 6-year low, and Chrysler and GM asked for billions more in bailout money this week, it became clear that this is the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. So, one question nags El Luchador at night. No, not what does all this means for our grandkids, something much more important: What affect will all of this have on the Columbus Crew?

Of course the MLS finances are as tightly held as Col. Sanders’ secret spices, but there are a number of factors we can look at that give us some indication of where things stand. Overall there is good news and bad news:

Good News: As the reigning MLS champions, the Crew should see a bump in attendance this year, and concessions and gate receipts are the No. 1 revenue source for MLS franchises. In 2008, the Houston Dynamo experienced a nearly 7 percent increase in attendance after winning their second consecutive MLS Cup in 2007. In fact, the Columbus Dispatch reported that Crew GM Mark "Fuck-Sigi-Schmid" McCullers said that as of Feb. 19, season-ticket renewals are ahead of last year's pace, and new business is about double where it was in 2008. "Overall, it's tracking about 15 to 20 ahead" of last year, he said. "New sales are strong," McCullers said, "and in this economy, we're very happy with that."

Bad News: The Crew’s attendance in 2007 actually dropped nearly 4 percent in 2008 to 14,622 and was 10th out of the 14 teams in the league.

Good News: The Crew in 2008 had the cheapest payroll in American soccer, and with the Hunt family’s famously tight-fisted ways, that will likely continue, giving the Crew an advantage in staving off the recession by keeping overall costs under control. With an average salary of $79,949, the Columbus Crew ranked dead last in the amount it paid its players in 2008. The second cheapest team, Chivas USA ($74,723.37), paid its players nearly 4 percent more on average than Columbus. The team with the most generous average payroll, the Galaxy, paid its players an average of $278,181, nearly four times as much as the Crew. Of course, this figure is somewhat skewed by the ridiculous salary paid to David Beckham.


Bad News: The Crew in 2008 had the cheapest payroll in American soccer. That’s right comrades, this is a double-edged sword. Sigi Schmid had an uncanny ability to find the diamond’s in the rough and get results from players getting poverty wages. (Adam Moffat was paid $17,700 last year). It remains to be seen whether Robert Warzycha has the same ability. In the long term, you cannot expect to stay on top of the league paying your players less than everyone else you hope to compete with on the field.

Good News: The group of robber barons from out of state who were attempting a hostile takeover of the team has been fended off by the Hunts, at least for now. The Columbus Dispatch reported on Feb. 6 that John Wagner, president of Crew investor-operator Hunt Sports Group, announced that they had broken off discussions with the group headed by California businessman Mark Noorzai. This is extremely good news on two fronts: 1) It is a strong indicator that the Crew’s finances must be in reasonable shape. 2) It means the team will be staying in C-Bus. Noorzai and his minions had indicated repeatedly they had no intention of moving the team. Of course, this was a lie. And owner-operator Clark Hunt recently told the Dispatch’s Michael Arace: "I'm confident the Columbus Crew will be playing in Columbus, Ohio, for at least the next 50 years. Beyond that, I'm not making any predictions."


Bad News: A Frobes Magazine study of overall financial strength last fall ranked the Crew 12th out of the 14 MLS franchises, with an estimated total value of $23 million, annual revenue of $6 million and a net operating income deficit of -$4.5 million. That last figure makes Columbus the team with the worst annual loss in the MLS. The magazine wrote: “The league’s second-smallest market with a dearth of sponsors and non-soccer events held at their stadium, nowadays the Crew set the standard in just one category: operating loss.”

Good News: The addition of the stage in the north end has shown initial success in allowing the Hunts to schedule concerts and other non-soccer events to generate revenue.

The bottom line is this, my brothers and sisters of Crew Soccer Nation: The Black and Gold needs our support in these trying economic times more than ever. Buy season tickets. Come to every home game. Buy lots beer at the stadium. Support the Polish Rifle as he takes us into this new era. Columbus till I die.