Crew Shots Against Grid Updated

By MJD
We've updated our chart tracking the Crew's SHTA and SOGA. The boys are still giving up more SHTA and SOGA than the league average (13.25 vs 10.77 and 4.5 vs 4.37 respectively), and their actual GA compared to their Expected Goals Against remains good (3 GA vs 5 EGA).  But as the chart indicates, they're still allowing opponents to create quality chances against them--look at all those chances right inside the box--14 total right in front of the net.

The question, then, is two-fold, is the Crew's strategy to bend and not break and then counter-attack?  Or does the team need to address its defensive issues quickly, as they cannot hope to continue to allow this many chances per game over the course of the remainder of the season and not start giving up goals?  What if Hesmer goes down and his form drops a few notches?  Our hunch right now is that RW needs to look hard at his back line.  One solution would be to hold Hejduk back, for example, at least from run after deep run up the wing.  A few judicious runs forward? Fine.  But using him as a real attacking back?  I don't know.

Finally, we've updated the power rankings and made them simpler.
The LM is now a single score normed so that the worst team in the league is now a zero.  We hope it makes more sense.  And in spite of our misgivings about the Crew, they are still second in our rankings, which is a measure of production per game, not simply overall production.  As such, they are still right up there at the top of the league.

Crew Defense Stats: Another Luchametric Exclusive

By MJD

Yesterday we looked at the Crew's attack, today we look at the team's defense.  What we see is troubling.

The grid to the left provides us with every SHTA and SOGA the Crew have faced over the first three games. It does not include PKs or free kicks.  Notice that virtually every SHTA and SOGA is right in front of the goal and inside the penalty area.  In other words, far from forcing teams to shoot from outside or take low-percentage shots, teams are getting right up in the Crew's grill.  The other numbers look even more problematic.  Check out the table below:

The Crew have given up only 2 GA so far.  Obviously, that is a good thing.  "EGA" is Expected Goals Against, or how many goals the team would be expected to give up, given how many SOGA they've allowed.  This is calculated by taking the number of SOGA the team has faced and multiplying it by the percentage of SOGAs that result in goals across the league on average.  Currently in the MLS, 18% of SOGAs result in Goals.  This is low and will go up over the course of the season to anywhere from 26% to 30%--the latter are the historical averages from 2008 and 2009 combined.  So, the Crew have actually given up fewer goals than expected given the number of shot opportunities they have allowed to be created against them.   Why?  Two words: William Hesmer.

The data clearly shows us that the Crew's back four aren't preventing scoring opportunities and are, in fact, allowing more scoring opportunities than the average MLS club.  Further, the very quality of shots they're giving up is alarming.  And yet the number of GA is low and the Crew have eked out two wins and a draw.  The only explanation is our boy Hesmer, whose save percentage of 80% puts him third in the league as does his .67 GAA.  William, we dub thee Billy Jack.  Thou art truly massive. 

The other important numbers in the last three columns support our assertion and love for His Royal Majesty King Hesmer.  As you can see, although the Crew are giving up more SHTA and SOGA than the league averages, the percentage of SOGAs that result in GA is a very low 13%.  This is very good given the current league average of 18%, and excellent given the historic league average of 26% or so.  Once again, Billy, we salute you.  Hagado Columbus! Till I die....

Crew Attack Stats: Luchametric Exclusive

By MJD
We have preliminary data that show Robbie Rogers needs to step it up.

Nordecke Luchador will be tracking the Crew's attack this season like no other blog on the planet.  To the left is a chart detailing where on the pitch the Crew have produced either a Shot or a Shot on Goal or a Goal.  Note that this chart does not reflect free kicks or penalty kicks.  We're relying on ESPN's Gamecast feature to track the data, and over the Crew's first three games at least, Gamecast does not show where on the field the free kicks are being taken.  Our good friend Colin over at Championship At Best has clued us in on an alternative data source, but we're still working on accessing it.  Once we do, we may be able to provide even more insight.  And kudos to Colin as well for his outstanding work, upon which we've based the above chart.

How to use the chart? Well, it tells us the Crew is getting good opportunities in the box, which is always a good sign you're team is playing well in the offensive phase.  And the attack looks very balanced as well. But the chart is best used in combination with close observation of tactical tendencies in actual games. Is the team looking to push down the wings and cross?  Are we trying to break down defenses in front of the goal and get high-percentage shots on give-and-gos and through balls?  Should the Crew be taking more shots from the top of the box and beyond?  Open beer; drink beer; discuss.

Also, the table below gives us data on the Crew's attack through Saturday's fixture vs the garment clad warriors of RSL.

The Pro and Pro/GM stats are measures we developed to measure an individual player's contribution to his squad's offensive production.  The explanation is here.  Big Willie, Iro, Moffat and Lenhart are the top producers.  Rogers is last.  Notice just how few SOGs the left winger has.  SHTs, yes, but actual dangerous chances?  Not so much.  The other troubling thing we notice is that Big Willie produces a goal or an assist every 67 minutes of play (Min/G+A).  That puts him third in the league behind Buddle (61) and Morales (61.75).  But the rest of the Crew's attackers have yet to step up.  Once again, the Crew are relying too heavily on Schelotto to earn points.  It would be unfair and inaccurate to say the team is one-dimensional, as four players have 6 shots or more over three games.  But we certainly would like to see more goals and assists in the games ahead by the rest of the team's attack.

Notice also that immediately below the Crew's numbers we've included the top offensive players in the MLS this season for comparison.  One thing we'd point out right away is that if any one mentions Conor Casey to you as deserving of a roster spot on the USMNT in South Africa, point out to the would-be Einstein that all three of his goals this season are from PKs, same with Cunningham.  The talk about Buddle, however, may be warranted.

Finally, once we gain access to the new data stream, which will give us such elusive stats as passes created by a player that could have turned into a G or an Assist or a SHT or a SOG but didn't due to the subsequent player messing up or not quite reaching a beautiful through ball, we're going to tweak the metric.  Essentially, we'll be able to add "chances created" to what we already have.  This will allow us to include players, especially midfielders like Donovan, who clearly are producing for their clubs but whose production won't always show up as either a G or an A.

Hagalo, Columbus. 'Til I die...