In preparation for their humiliation tonight at Columbus, Chicago Fire fans should watch this video summarizing the historic Crew victory over the Fire in November 2008 as the Crew rolled to their first MLS Cup Championship.
Header from Marshall to tie it at the 2:50 mark on the video and Eddie Gaven to win it at 3:36.
It's hard to resist the overarching narrative, the mythical allure, the psychic pull of Chelsea in the 2012 UEFA Champions League Final this Saturday.
It's left brain-right brain, yin-yang, good-evil, Spock-McCoy.
WE WOULD ALL LOVE TO REPEAT THIS SCENE OF GERMAN DOGS SURRENDERING, BUT BAYERN MUNICH WILL WIN ON SATURDAY IN THE EUROPEAN FINAL
Any man in the Western Hemisphere with any heart should want England to reconquer Deutschland, for Chelsea to win the trophy that has always eluded them, and for the underdog to prevail at a decent price.
But as much as your heart may cry out to bet Chelsea, El Luchador's pick is Bayern Munich. Bet Bayern to win in regulation, and to lift the cup, here's why:
INJURIES: Chelsea is missing captain John Terry, fellow defender Branislav Ivanovich, and midfielder Raul Meireles. Caretaker Coach Roberto Di Matteo even speculated in the media this week that he might have to dip into the reserves to shore up the defence in this the most important game in club history.
HOME ADVANTAGE: Bayern host the match in the Allianz Arena where they have been formidable. They have not lost at home in 15 matches in all competitions, and have only one tie in that time frame dating to November 2011.
RECENT FORM: Bayern's only loss in 7 matches was last week at Dortmund in what amounted to an exhibition as Bayern focused on the UEFA Final with no chance of overtaking Dortmund for the Bundesliga title. Meanwhile, Chelsea in the last 7 matches are 3-2-2 and are more heavily played with their successful run in the FA Cup.
SENTIMENT: The Luchametric Institute has studied betting patterns for the last 20 years through a rigorous scientific instrument, and the numbers clearly show that the world wide betting public favors English teams in international club competitions by a statistically significant factor of 1.25 to 1. The compelling narrative of England once again defeating the German swine and the underdog Chelsea finally winning the UEFA Champions League, the one title they have never won, will combine to artificially distort the odds to make Bayern's payout more attractive.
Bet Bayern to win outright in regulation and as a backup, bet them to win the title. Do it.
Louimpressme was the last horse to ever win a race in Grove City, Ohio, paying $9.60 in a starter allowance for fillies and mares on May 5, 2012. It was the filly's 4th Birthday, the traditional closing day for Grove City's Beulah Park, coinciding with the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby. Louimpressme stalked the pace, drew off, and pulled away in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths over Coco's Mountain. The $2 trifecta paid $184.20.
Kentucky bred Louimpressme wins Beulah's last race.
Built in 1923, Beulah Park was the first thoroughbred race track in Ohio. After 89 years, on May 5th, 2012, Beulah succumbed to the trifecta of Corporate Greed, Casinos, and Corruption.
Penn National Gaming, an independent human being according to the Supreme Court of the United States of America, purchased Beulah as part of a plot to exploit as much gambling capital as possible from the Buckeye State.
The plan was to colonize Columbus with a casino on the West Side, and to eliminate competition by moving Beulah to Youngstown. With the backing of lackey's cronies, and henchmen, the plan succeeded.
So, on Saturday, May 5, 2012, Louimpressme became the last horse to ever win a race in Grove City, Ohio.
The home stretch at Beulah Park looks forlorn after the last race.
Greetings Luchametric Nation. Your comrade in the struggle is headed to the hinterlands south of the Ohio River this Saturday for the annual Dionysian rite of spring that is the Kentucky Derby. Mint Juleps for all the ladies.
The more learned among you will surely be asking one critical question: On which horses will the informed and skilled Luchador be placing his hard-won soccer wagering proceeds.
Here are my quick picks for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. For detailed analysis, see the complete Luchametric report at our proprietary affiliates by exclusive membership, upon referral.
MINT JULEP
Creative Cause 8: Winner of the G2 San Filipe at Santa Anita, this western shipper is ridden by the skilled Joel Rosario and has worked well recently over the Churchill dirt track. He has an impressive distance dirt pedigree and has never finished more than 1 length behind in his 8 career starts. The Mike Harrington-trained colt of Giant's Causeway drew the comfortable No. 8 post and is one of only 3 horse in the field to have hit the 100 Beyer figure (the others being favorite Bodemeister and 15-1 Daddy Nose Best.) Bodemeister 6: The sentimental Bob Baffert heart attack angle will bet this horse to a disappointing price. However, you must include Bodemeister in all big tickets because of his top speed figures, winning record, impressive physical appearance, excellent Churchill recent workouts and the training style and track record of Baffert. Not to mention Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith on board. Plus, the depressed odds will be countered by the 2-year-old curse (no horse in more than 100 years has won the derby not having raced as a 2 year old.). Take Charge Indy 3: Two of the last 7 derby winners have come off of wins in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, and these were Big Brown (2008) and Barbaro (2006). Take Charge Indy won this year's Florida Derby in decisive fashion against the likes of Union Rags and El Padrino. And his form has improved with each successive outing. Although he drew a difficult inside 3 post, at least he's not on the rail, and he is under Hall of Fame Jockey Calvin Borel who won the 2010 Derby on 20-1 long shot Super Saver.
Brothers and Sisters in the struggle for economic equality through responsible wagering: Here is the Luchador's officially sanctioned betting advice for the 2012 Kentucky Derby: Bet 3 individual win place show bets on Bodemeister, Take Charge Indy and Creative Cause. Then bet a boxed trifecta including these three horses.
If you can afford if, do a back-up bet as follows: Trifecta 3,6,8/3,6,8/1,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,15,16,19
El Luchador is a foot soldier in the populist soccer Revolution. Speaking from the perspective of the streets, El Luchador is here for every working man and woman in the Crew Soccer Nation.
Fighting the good fight since 1996, Nordecke Luchador joins hands with his brothers and sisters across the land, in solidarity for the Black and Gold, from the Scioto to the Olentangy, from South Bloomfield to Delaware. From Reynoldburg to West Jeff. Columbus Till I Die.
GMS=Games Played: LM=Lucametric Score; Z Score=Z score for the LM; PTS=Actual Points Earned; P Pts= projected points to be earned by end of season; For more comprehensive data, click on image.
Final EPL 2010-11 Team Stats June 15, 2011 (Short Version)
For more complete data click on table
EPL and MLS Power Rankings, Handicapping and Comprehensive Statistics
The Luchametric is a weighted statistical score that measures a team's overall production. The LM represents the total number of offensive events the team creates each game (for example, Shots and Shots on goal) minus the total number of offensive events per game the team allows to be created against it. Each event is weighted in terms of its relative "worth" in goals.
The weights for each category were derived by looking at a range of variables (statistical categories) and subjecting them to simple regression analysis to identify those stats which were the strongest measure of a team's strength relative to other teams. The metric considers and weights the following variables:
Home Goals, Away Goals, Home Wins, Away Wins, Draws, Losses, Shots, Shots on Goals, Quality Shots on Goal, Corners For, Corners Against, Goals Against, Shots Against, Shots on Goal Against, and Recent Form.
The Z-score gives the relative differences among the teams in Standard Deviations. In other words, if Chelsea has a Z-score of 2.0 and Hull has one of -2.0, Hull is 4 full standard deviations below Chelsea in the rankings. Based on our analysis, in the EPL and the MLS, a difference of one full Standard Deviation indicates a significant difference between any two teams.
To download Excel files containing the comprehensive team stats, click on the appropriate link below. To be put on our mailing list and receive the Luchametric Power Rankings as soon as they are up, including an Excel file with that week's data, click here.
MLS Fixtures Odds, Probabilities, Recomendations: August 19, 2010
Our recommendation is based on the LM Power Rankings, a comprehensive statistical comparison of both clubs, and our overall estimation of the real probability of a win by either club combined with the value of the payout offered by the books. "Added Value" is our estimation of any additional percentage probability of a win. So a team with an added value of +10 is deemed to have an additonal 10% chance of winning. A team with a negative added valude is deemed to have less of a percentage chance to win. Recommendations in blue are our best bets.
A spontaneous celebration for the Crew's 2-0 win over the New York Red Bulls, Saturday, July 18, 2010
Life is a Lottery
For the Faithful
Read For Yourself
Here's the MLS Collective Bargaining Agreement that expired this year. It reads like an Indian treaty. When the new one is available, we will post it.
Steven Lenhart AKA "DJ Funky Stevie L"
OFFICIAL PLAYLIST OF THE MLS SOLIDARITY MOVEMENT
Los Straitjackets
A Message from Crew General Manager Mark McCullers (From the Black & Gold Standard)
Nordecke Supporters:
I have received several emails regarding the increased security presence in the Nordecke for the Saprissa match. We have respectfully requested that the chants including profanity, most importantly GTFO, cease. Unfortunately that chant has continued, specifically during the Cruz Azul match and then several times during the LA match. During our highest attended game of the year, with the opportunity to impress people that might attend more Crew games at Crew stadium, we instead left a negative impression with unnecessary chanting of unacceptable profanity.We have received numerous complaints from fans, and now have indications from sponsors that they are reconsidering their financial support because they cannot be associated with an environment that includes this behavior. My pride in the Nordecke and what it brings to the club is deep and well documented. But this behavior, again, compromises our repuation and cannot be tolerated. We must identify and deal with those who insist on perpetuating this behavior, which explains the increased security measures.
I apologize to those who respect our policies and standards. I hope that those who disrespect the club and others in the stadium begin to understand our position and refrain from unnecessary and detrimental behavior. Until then, we must take action to protect our reputation and collective interests.
This is an exciting time for our team and organization. I regret that this blemish has once again manifested itself and hope that it is quickly resolved.
Sincerest regards, Mark
WE SUPPORT COLUMBUS, AND THAT'S THE WAY WE LIKE IT...
For Elizabeth: It ain't Freaking Tiddly Winks People; Get Real
For the Faithful: Fershizzle. . .
For the Faithful: Toronto FC Fan
For the Faithful: Grasshopper
For the Faithful
El Luchador Rallies the Freaking Troops
Vishnu Hairy Krishna Vishnu Vishnu Hairy Hairy
Football Lovefest
Come on Crew!
El Luchador Recommends
Columbus 'till I Die!
El Luchador wrestles with the tough issues surrounding the Crew. He is assisted in his efforts by El Chupacabra. Together they provide MLS and Crew fans with valuable information and analysis of both soccer and soccer wagering. We are completely independent and have no affiliation with the MLS, the Crew or any commercial sportsbook.
Online sports wagering is not explicitly illegal but the law is murky. No individual has ever been prosecuted for online sports wagering in the US, and the laws on the books generally focus on the financial side of the industry not the actual placing of bets. For more information go here. Nordecke Luchador believes responsible and moderate sports wagering by adults is a healthy and legitimate form of entertainment. Individuals with addictive personalities are encouraged to seek other forms of distraction and amusement.
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