Saturday, December 19, 2009
Nordecke Luchador's Holiday Favorites
Monday, December 7, 2009
US vs England South Africa 2010: English Soccer Tyranny, Like Hell, is not Easily Conquered
By El ChupacabraThis is a rant. If you don't like them, tune out now.
US v England, Rustenberg, South Africa, June 12, 2010 at 20:30.
It's on people. Don't try to talk El Chupa off of the ledge. This ain't no friendly. El Chupa is not an Anglophile--oh, no, far from it. Pack your toothbrush, forswear fish and chips, English ale and Elizabeth Hurley and prepare to get it on. Seriously, El Chupa will never forgive Italy for Brian McBride's broken nose and the two red cards in 2006 when we held the cowardly Azzurri to a tie. Never. Few teams other than Italy and Mexico raise El Chupa's blood pressure. But this June he will add another vaunted foe to his list of nasties: Rooney and company--the limey bastards.
We may watch, follow and admire the EPL. But we do so for its international flavor and quality of play. The fact that it has Drogbas, and Van Persies and Torres. We don't watch, follow and admire it because toothless chavs populate the stands high on meth and cheap, high-alcohol English lager.
We were thinking of writing a funny piece using the usual stereotypes of the English in an ironic, gently humorous fashion. But we gave up. And we're dead serious. If you think any football fan in Europe has respect for American soccer, the American team, or American soccer fans, you're on crack. They don't. They may like Donovan, and Dempsey and Howard, but they know we're not deep, and they know and love the fact that our team embarrassed itself and the country in Germany in 2006.
Have you ever noticed how violent are the matches between our boys and the big powers in world soccer? Have you ever noticed that we never get the calls in said matches? And that we frequently acquire red cards on the most ridiculous of pretenses? It's not a conspiracy. It's a deep-seeded psychological resentment of American political, cultural and economic hegemony.
In the view of most of the soccer world, the beautiful game is theirs not ours, and we're like the handsome and successful outsider who comes to the wedding and all the girls want to do him and the local boys get pissed and wait outside to beat the leaving crap out of him when he tries to leave in his fancy new car none of them can afford. You've seen that movie? Right.
As such, I urge my readers to step up and stifle any friendly talk around the water cooler or in your local pub about this mother of all matches. This ain't no weeny roast. Get your Gadsden flag ready, stock the fridge with the American craft and micro brews that now put European and British ales to shame and get ready to freaking rumble. Yeah, we respect the other team, but we don't like them, not at all. It's time to earn the respect US soccer fans so desperately crave by sticking a big thumb in the eye of the Lion.
There's a malaise of mind in American soccer given its status as a sport of the white, upper-middle class, that sees it as a gentlemanly game much like tennis and golf. Bullshit. Have you tuned in on a sleepless night to the 1:00 am game on FSC or Gol to watch an obscure match from South America or Europe only to be astonished at how physical is the play? This ain't tiddly winks, as Elizabeth Lambert has so ably and admiringly demonstrated. And it's time American soccer fans acquire the ruthless madness of fanaticism required to urge our boys to victory. In the words of Thomas Paine:
In short, it's time to get just wee bit angry people, it's not time to get scared. This is Lexington and freaking Concord not an exhibition game of Old Maid. El Chupa is not at all scared. He can't wait for the bodies to hit the floor. Any US fan who says otherwise better step back.Friday, December 4, 2009
EPL Handicapping: Aston Villa over Hull City

By El Chupacabra
Villa over Hull at Villa Park (no U.S. TV). Do it. Here's why.
This is not a terribly interesting weekend in EPL betting-wise or even just in terms of good matches. Regarding the latter, Chelsea at Man City could be a good one to watch (its the only one that looks remotely interesting), but we think Chelsea will choke off City's attack and then dutifully put in a goal or two (or three). But other than this contest, there are no marquee match ups.
Hull at Villa is the best bet of the weekend. Villa at home at -220 earns you just under 50% and its the surest thing you'll find this weekend at decent odds. Remember, look for home teams you think have the best chance of winning and try to stay around a 50% return or better. Villa leads Hull in the Luchametric by over 1.0 StandDevs. Hull's recent form is definitely better than Villa, but Villa is at home looking for a sure three points from a league bottom-feeder. What's more, Villa are one of four finalists in the Carling Cup and have not lost at home since the opening day of the season, winning four of their last six matches in front of their own fans.
OUR PREDICTION: Villa to win.
MONEY LINE: Villa-220 Hull +755 Draw +358
LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Villa - The Villans have an advantage of nearly 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicative of a significant competitive difference between any two teams.
RECENT
MOTIVATION: Draw - Villa's recent form and position in the table give them all the incentive in the world to grab three points and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Hull look to continue their recent form and continue to climb out of relegation and erase the nightmare of the first few weeks of the season.
RECENT
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea
By El ChupacabraThe Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's fixtures. As always you may download an Excel file with the data here. Chelsea is on top (duh) followed by Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. Chelsea has opened quite a bit of space in the official table and in the rankings. They are now nearly a full StandDev (.92) over second place Man U. We have Arsenal ahead of Spurs by .37 of a Stand Dev. We think the nine goals Spurs scored against Wigan were a fluke and that they'll move further down the rankings in the weeks ahead.
Chelsea's dominance is most obvious on defense. They allow the fewest Goals Against per game in the league (.57), the fewest Shots on Goal Against per game in the league (2.5) and the lowest percentage of SOGA to SHTs Against (.26). This latter stat tells us that only 26% of the oppositions' shots are actually on goal, giving us a sense of how few quality chances Chelsea actually allows its opponents (the league average is 37%)
They also lead the league in Recent Form, and have now beaten Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. The season is far from over, and Man U lurks five points behind with a home game against Chelsea still to come. But seriously people, the Blues have a shot at the EPL crown, the Champions league and the FA cup. I'd still take Barca over Chelsea at this point, but what a match it would be.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Union Till I Die: Which Side Are You On?
By El Luchador
The capitalists who run the International House of Soccer (MLS) have long treated the workers like 19th Century French coal miners. For some time now, El Luchador’s sources within the soccer labor movement have warned that negotiations have not gone well for the collective bargaining agreement that expires at the end of this year.
The Columbus Dispatch this morning sensationalizes the situation on its front page. (Read article here.)
Brother Shawn Mitchell writes:
Major League Soccer players will strike or be locked out next season unless collective-bargaining negotiations between their union and the league make a drastic improvement, sources with knowledge of negotiations said.
A collective-bargaining proposal made by the league last week was "very disappointing," said Crew goalkeeper William Hesmer.
Set aside for a moment that
El Luchador encourages his faithful followers to read the current collective bargaining agreement, which is available here.
You will see that it is structured to give the capitalists who control the means of production at the International House of Soccer the maximum ability to exploit the labor of the brave men who actually go out on the field and do the work.
Essentially, the American economic model for professional soccer is a form of 21st Century indentured servitude.
Union President Bob Foose and the players are working to alter the structure of MLS player contracts. The current agreement does not offer guaranteed contracts, or any form of free agency and entangles the players in one-way options that maximize the power of the teams over individual players. In most cases, players are forced to sign semi-guaranteed contracts, which allow the team bosses to cut players before July 1 without having to pay out their contracts.
This is highly exploitive of the lower level players, who are left with sweatshop wages and no measure of control over their careers. (Keep in mind, for example, that Steven Lenhart’s base salary this year was less than $34,000. That was a huge increase over his 2008 of $12,900.) For more on MLS salaries, read this article from the Luchametric archive.
After players are released, their teams retain their rights, which forces other teams to trade for those rights if they want to sign that player, thus making it very difficult for the players to negotiate and find a new home.
All the union wants is a collective bargaining agreement that abides by the same rules as the rest of the planet under FIFA.
As Crew Midfielder Brian Carroll told the Dispatch: “It's about rights more than money. But we want things to be fair. That's all anybody can ask for."
El Luchador stands behind his brothers in Black & Gold and across the MLS as they fight for economic justice.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Arsenal and Chelsea Outpace the Pack in Updated Power Rankings
By El ChupacabraThe Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Monday's match at Anfield. Arsenal is back on top followed, again extremely closely, by Chelsea. Man U and Man City round out the top four but are significantly back of the top two.
Notice that a mere .16th of a StandDev separates the Gunners from the Blues. Chelsea has more points and more wins, but Arsenal has more goals (as always, you can look at the comprehensive data here). The Goal Differential of both teams is nearly identical: 22 for Arsenal; 21 for Chelsea. Arsenal has played one game less than Chelsea, and this accounts for the difference in wins to some extent.
Before you Blues fans blow a gasket, consider that the difference between the two teams is really negligible, at least statistically, but it comes down to this: Arsenal is a better offensive club, Chelsea the better defensive club. And Chelsea is probably more balanced overall.
The Luchametric weighs a number of different variables, and it could be that we need to look at the defensive side of the model. We have a measure for Quality Scoring Chances, for example, and in this measure Arsenal is clearly superior. But we're still looking at comprenhesive statistical measures of a team's defense.
We can say this, however:
A full 42 % of the Gunners' Shots on Goal become goals, compared to 30% for Chelsea. That's a 25% difference. Also, 32% of Arsenal's SOG Against become Goals Against, compared to 25% for Chelsea (the league average is 25%; the league leaders are Villa with an impressively low 18%). Arsenal allows 1.27 GA per game, while Chelsea allows a mere .67 GA per game. And Chelsea allows only 2.67 SOGA per game, while Arsenal allows 4.0 SOGA. That's fairly significant. Chelsea is unbelievably stingy. You may have noticed on Sunday if you caught the game against Man U that Chelsea had the usual four man back line, but then frequently had another two men behind that. They were in essence playing a sort of 2-4-3-1 or you could just call it a 5-4-1. This shows both their respect for Man U and the genius of Ancelotti.
At this point, given the history of the league and of the big four, its understandable why so much attention still gets paid to Liverpool, who really are in trouble at this point, and that so many people continue to doubt Wenger's confidence that his club is playing for the title. But the evidence is clear: this year, barring injuries (Bendtner), Chelsea and Arsenal are the cream of the league. We look forward to the November 29 match at Emirates against Chelsea. This will be the true test of the two teams and should be some outstanding football. The league's best attacking club against the league's most balanced and most stingy club. At Stamford bridge, we'd take Chelsea, but at Emirates, Arsenal will give the Blues all they can handle.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Crew 2, Real Salt Lake 3. The Nordecke Address
Now, we stand in defeat, having lost a great battle against a violent and undeserving foe, and this loss tests whether Crew Soccer Nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. The battle-field of Crew Stadium stands cold and empty after a promising season ended in misery. And we ask ourselves how we might honor that space and the august Men who dedicated their talent and energy and all their hearts to the battle.
Hesmer, Hejduk, Brunner, Marshall, Padula, Ekpo, Gaven, Carroll, O'Rourke, Schelotto,
It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate, we can not consecrate, we can not hallow, the ground where these men fell in defeat. Our words here are inadequate.
These brave men who struggled there, have consecrated Crew Stadium, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did there.
It is for us the fans, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought for us have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us: that from this humbling defeat at the hands of an incompetent referee and dishonest team, we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion, that we here highly resolve that this defeat shall not have been endured in vain, that Crew Soccer Nation shall have a new birth of glory. And that Soccer of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
Nordecke Luchador joins hands with his brothers and sisters across the land, in solidarity for the Black and Gold, from the Scioto to the Olentangy, from South Bloomfield to






