Sunday, July 8, 2012

Preview: Crew at Montreal

There are several obvious reasons why it is tempting to bet the Crew to beat the Montreal Impact on Canadian soil this Sunday afternoon. The syllogism goes like this: The Quebecois are French. The French always surrender. Ergo, the Impact will lose.

Silly French. Always giving up.
Throw in the facts that the Crew have already beat the Impact 2-0 and are coming off an impressive home win over Fake Salt Lake, Montreal are on a 3-game losing streak, the Crew to win are paying +190 on the international betting markets, and the wager becomes downright irresistible. But resist you must, my dear comrades of Luchametric Nation. Here's why.

ROAD FORM: The Crew are 1-2-3 in their last 6 road games, averaging less than 1 goal per game in that span. The travel to Montreal is grueling, and the squad will be fatigued.

IMPACT HOME FORM: While they have had 2 consecutive disappointing home losses (to KC and Toronto), the Impact have had some recent spectacular home performances against solid clubs, including 4-2 win of Houston on June 23 and 4-1 win over Seattle on June 16.

DUE FOR A WIN: The Impact debut veteran defender Alessandro Nesta in this match, and more importantly he will be paired with his childhood friend and long-time teammate  Marco Di Vaio, who has so far failed to produce a single goal after his much heralded unveiling a month ago. Di Vaio is a dangerous and creative force up top, and a goal spree is long over due.

So, a Crew victory is not a good bet. But, the Luchametric Institute is recommending that followers lay down their money on the over (2.5 goals) at even money.

The Crew reportedly will get an offensive boost with the long-awaited debut of veteran Costa Rican attacker Jairo Arrieta. And they are due for a big goal performance.  

The Crew may very well pull this one off. And Lord knows El Luchador will be praying for a victory to Our Blessed Lady. But, when it comes to the pocket book. Bet the over. Do it.

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