EPL Results: The Thrill and the Agony

By El Chupa

Well, Burnley crushed Sunderland. We aren't afraid to admit that we got that one wrong. But El Chupa won his Parlay of Arsenal and Aston Villa, Liverpool won, and he has put his money on hated Man U in tomorrow's Manchester Derby as well. Two things: it's early in the season and the numbers will shift as the data comes in. We're about 1/8 th of the way through the season and Dr. Bumba and El Chupa have concluded we probably need to get to somewhere between 10 and 15 games before the Luchametric becomes a bit more stable. Second, we've decide that any game where the two teams are separated by .5 of a standard deviation or less is to close to call. If one STDEV or higher separates the two teams, we're fairly confident that it marks a significant separation. Accordingly, El Chupa looks for Parlays involving games between teams separated by 1.0 STDEVs or higher, especially when the favored team is at home. He also looks for games where the higher ranked team is going into a venue where the bookmakers are giving too much credit to the home team. Of course, Sunderland was one such instance. But we maintain that once we get enough data in, upsets like the one today at Turf Moor will be fewer in number.

EPL Handicapping: Sunderland over Burnley

By El Chupa

We LOVE Burnley. We fell in love with them the night we watched them beat Man U (F Man U) in their first home game since being promoted to the Premier League at the end of last season. However, we think taking either Sunderland or the under may prove to be the highest percentage wager of the weekend in the EPL.

Sunderland is +145 and Burnley is +155. If you look at any current EPL table, Sunderland is in 6th place with 9 points and Burnley is in 12th with 6. BUT! The Luchametric has Sunderland at 2.46 Pro/Gm with a Z-score of -.03 or nearly at the league average. Meanwhile, Burnley is at a Pro/GM of -3.29 or nearly -1.46 standard deviations below the league average. This is nearly one and one-half standard deviations BELOW Sunderland. We think this is significant. We predict either a Sunderland win or an under draw.

Burnley is 2-0 at home giving up only 2 GA total. Sunderland averages 1.6 G/GM, which is above the league average of 1.37. But Burnley averages only .4 G/GM. As such, with Sunderland on the road where they've only scored 1 goal in two games, we think the under is virtually a sure thing. Both home wins for Burnley were 1-0. $15 currently earns you $10 on the under while $10 on Sunderland to win earns you $14.50. Roll the dice and bet Sunderland to win or take the under and earn 67% on what we consider a very safe, high-percentage wager. This match could also make one-half of a promising two-match parlay as well. Do it.