EPL Handicapping: Aston Villa over Hull City

By El Chupacabra
Villa over Hull at Villa Park (no U.S. TV). Do it. Here's why.

This is not a terribly interesting weekend in EPL betting-wise or even just in terms of good matches. Regarding the latter, Chelsea at Man City could be a good one to watch (its the only one that looks remotely interesting), but we think Chelsea will choke off City's attack and then dutifully put in a goal or two (or three). But other than this contest, there are no marquee match ups.

Hull at Villa is the best bet of the weekend. Villa at home at -220 earns you just under 50% and its the surest thing you'll find this weekend at decent odds. Remember, look for home teams you think have the best chance of winning and try to stay around a 50% return or better. Villa leads Hull in the Luchametric by over 1.0 StandDevs. Hull's recent form is definitely better than Villa, but Villa is at home looking for a sure three points from a league bottom-feeder. What's more, Villa are one of four finalists in the Carling Cup and have not lost at home since the opening day of the season, winning four of their last six matches in front of their own fans.

OUR PREDICTION: Villa to win.

MONEY LINE: Villa-220 Hull +755 Draw +358

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Villa - The Villans have an advantage of nearly 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicative of a significant competitive difference between any two teams.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Villa played at Portsmouth Tuesday in the Carling Cup. Hull has rested since last weekend's match away. Still, Hull has to travel to 137 miles or 2.5 hours by bus to get to Villa Park.

MOTIVATION: Draw - Villa's recent form and position in the table give them all the incentive in the world to grab three points and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Hull look to continue their recent form and continue to climb out of relegation and erase the nightmare of the first few weeks of the season.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Hull. Hull has earned nine points in their last six matches, Villa seven. Hull has two wins and two draws in their last four.

INJURIES: Draw - Both teams have have a few injuries but no major absences to report.

MLS Power Rankings: Final Season Standings

By El Chupacabra
The mighty have fallen. The Crew limped home this season, losing three of their last four games. As a result, they've plummeted in the Luchametric ratings to fifth overall behind Seattle, Houston, LA and Chicago.

Their LM score puts them about .5 of a Standard Deviation behind League Leaders Seattle. As we've indicated throughout the year, .5 or less in the Z score indicates relative competitive equality.

Still, the Crew earned the most points this year in the league, and our season-ending tally has them below four other teams. How is this possible?

For starters, remember that the Luchametric is designed to be more precise than the league standings. As such, it is going to magnify certain differences that will get lost when you simply assign three points for a win, one for a draw, zero for a loss. In our view, the LM is more discriminating, hence the differences between it and the league standings.

Also, do not underestimate how much the last four games hurt the Crew's numbers. Their overall production fell off dramatically over the last month or so, allowing teams who surged at the end of the season and finished strong to overtake them. And again, the difference between the Crew and SEA is relatively small comparatively. And even in the official standings, only a few points separate the top teams in the league.

However, since we now have another full season of data, we'll be able to look very closely at the metric and see where we need to tweak it. We may be weighting some variables too much, some not enough. We'll look especially closely at the categories that are exclusive to the metric, like Quality Chances Created and Recent Form. But clearly, the Crew's recent form has killed them.

And so we fear for the Black and Gold. At their best they are the cream of the league. But this is a league with unparalleled parity in professional football. Regardless, they need to get their shite together and toot sweet. They may have won the Supporters' Shield, but they are fully capable of losing a two-game series on aggregate if they don't resume their mid-season form. Here's hoping Warzycha will have them ready on Saturday and that they won't sleep-walk their way to an early exit from the postseason.

Luchametric T-Shirt Now Available

While we have battled crime on the streets and helped the average Joe beat the bookies and earn a little more drinking money, fans have petitioned El Chupa and El Luchador for some type of paraphernalia that fellow foot soldiers can wear to signify their solidarity.

Many have said they are looking for a way to show the world that they are with Us in our fight against Them.

Well, my brothers and sisters, the time has arrived.

The famous Nordecke Luchador Masthead from our blog is now available on a T-shirt thanks to Columbus' own home grown shirt maker, Skreened.com.

Visit our page on Skreened's site today to purchase your shirt. Wear it to church, to the synagogue, to the board meeting or anywhere else where it would be disruptive and subvert the authority of the Man.

Crew General Manager Mark McCullers is getting them for his familty this Christmas season. And you should too. Do it.

EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U

By El Chupacabra
Our EPL Power Rankings are fully updated and ready for this weekend's renewal of EPL play following International Week. Chelsea is on top followed closely by Arsenal and Man U. Arsenal's ability to score boo coo goals has put them ahead of Man U. Man U is also giving up goals and dropping points to lesser opponents. We have Liverpool and Man City ahead of Spurs. Spurs is erratic, give up goals, and the tie with Bolton has hurt them in the rankings. Burnley has moved out of the relegation zone in our rankings but they need to start earning points away from home and soon. And remember, the comprehensive EPL team statistics are now available here.

Real Salt Lake to Win at -200

By El Luchador
Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls, Wednesday, Oct. 14, 10 p.m. (EDT)
TV ESPN2
There is no team in MLS more pathetic than the New York Red Bulls. With 18 points in 28 games, the Red Bulls' record is nearly twice as bad as the next most shitty team, San Jose who have a comparatively respectable 29 points in 28 games. At -23, NY's goal differential is by far the worst. Again San Jose are next at -12. And here's the kicker: New York have not won on the road since George W. Bush was still sitting in the White House reading the bible and waiting for the Rapture. Meanwhile, the fervent prayers of God's chosen people and the other empirical things going for Real Salt Lake, make a bet on the Mormons a sure thing.
OUR PREDICTION: RSL to Win. Big Time.
MONEY LINE: RSL -200 TIE +265 NY +475
LUHAMETRIC:
RECENT TRAVEL Advantage RSL: This is another big difference between these two squads. RSL come into this match with a club-record 18-day break from league action, and they have been resting comfortably and preparing for this match at home for nearly 3 weeks. By contrast, NY are in the 4th week of a 3-game winless western road swing where they have traveled more than 3,000 miles.
HOME –v- AWAY FORM – Advantage RSL. RSL have not lost at home since a 2-0 loss May 16 to Kansas City. That was their only home loss of the season. Meanwhile, NY have not won on the road since July 8, 2007 when they eked out a 1-0 victory over Colorado. Think about it: It has been more than two years since New York have won a game away from home.
INSPIRATION Advantage RSL: Eliminated from playoff contention, the Red Bulls are trying to avoid becoming the third team in MLS history to go winless on the road for the entire season. (One of the two other teams to do so was the 2008 Red Bulls squad). Real Salt Lake still have a chance at the playoffs. If they win this, and other things go their way, the Polygimists still can make the International House of Soccer's "every-child-is-an-honor-student" style playoff system. They are just four points out of the final wild card spot with three games still to play. In short, NY have only their honour to play for, which is to say NY have nothing to play for. RSL have the possibility of winning an MLS Cup berth in their home finale.
HISTORY Advantage NY. This is the weird part. RSL have never beaten NY. You heard that right, in 10 games in all competition, RSL are 0-4-6 vs. NY. Don't let this fool you. Remember, NY suck. Really, really suck. RSL are due for a win against these guys.
RECENT FORM Advantage EVEN: RSL – TLLTWW (8), NY – LTTLWW (8)
INJURIES Advantage RSL: QUESTIONABLE: MF Ned Grabavoy (L foot contusion); PROBABLE: FW Fabian Espíndola (R hamstring tightness); MF Javier Morales (R ankle sprain); GK Nick Rimando (illness); DF Robbie Russell (illness) NY: OUT: DF Kevin Goldthwaite (adductor surgery); FW John Wolyniec (L ankle surgery); QUESTIONABLE: MF Jorge Rojas (L knee hyperextension); FW Juan Pablo Angel (R ankle sprain).

The Masked one doesn't do this very often, but here goes: The Luchametric guarantees this outcome. RSL will win. Bet the rent money. Do it.

MLS Power Rankings Updated

By El Chupacabra
The MLS Power Rankings have been updated since Wednesday's game between Dallas and San Jose. No major changes to report. Dallas and DC are within two PTS of making the playoffs and are ranked higher than New England. Here's hoping the Crew win on Saturday to keep DC and Dallas in the hunt. It's going to be a sad day for the reputation of the International House of Soccer (MLS) if a team as crappy as New England gets rewarded with a shot at the MLS Cup.
I guess we could also point out that even though Houston is second in the league with 44 PTS, the Luchametric is unimpressed, as we have even SEA and COL ahead of them in the rankings. Tough noogies Dynamo fans. You can suck it.
Of course, to be REALLY fair, the differences among CHI, LA, SEA, COL, HOU and CVS are negligible. Only our Crew have some daylight between themselves and the rest of the pack. 'till I die. . .

Toronto to Win at Home over San Jose

By El Luchador
San Jose Earthquakes at Toronto FC 4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10
As a Crew fan, it is hard for El Luchador to lay his money down on the Red soccer team from the Great White North. These are the hosers who bring busloads of mouth-breathing drunken Rush fans across the border each year to Crew Stadium to cheer a draw like it’s an FA Cup win and try to have their way with our women. But alas, the Masked One’s MLS pick of the week is Toronto at home to win over San Jose.
OUR PREDICTION: TOR to Win
MONEY LINE Toronto -153 TIE +250 San Jose +350
LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage TOR: TOR -0.15, SJ -0.85. Very little separates these two teams statistically, but the patented Luchametric system measuring total production over the season gives a slight edge to TOR.
RECENT TRAVEL Advantage TOR: SJ will travel 2,250 miles after dropping their home closer 2-1 to Dallas Wednesday night, and this will be their 3^rd game in 7 days. TOR have been resting comfortably at home since returning Sunday from a 2-2 tie to Chicago last Saturday, which kept their playoff hopes alive.
HOME –v- AWAY FORM – Advantage TOR. BMO Field has been a virtual fortress for TOR in MLS play. They have not lost at home since a 2-0 June 6 loss to LA. And they have only 3 home losses in league play all year. TOR have never lost their home closer.
INSPIRATION Advantage TOR: With their disappointing loss to DAL Wednesday, SJ have nothing to play for but their pride, such as it is. TOR are still very much alive in the playoff hunt, and this game is a must win.
HISTORY Advantage TOR: TOR beat SJ this year in the away leg July 11. In 2008 TOR lost one and tied one. (2007 was TOR’s first year in the league, and SJ had not yet returned from their hiatus).
RECENT FORM Advantage SJ: TOR– TLWLTL (5), SJ – LWWTTL (8)
INDIVIDUAL PLAY Advantage TOR: SJ Goalkeeper Joe Cannon has given up more goals (44) than anyone in the league. Neither team has an offensive superstar with league-leading stats in any category.
INJURIES Advantage TOR: While the Reds list DF Marvell Wynne as questionable, El Luchador’s sources say, he likely will play. SJ sorely miss the services of English attacking MF Darren Huckerby. SJ OUT: MF Darren Huckerby (R hip surgery); MF Andre Luiz (L knee sprain); QUESTIONABLE: FW Cornell Glen (R knee sprain); DF Jason Hernandez (L hamstring strain). TOR OUT: MF Carl Robinson (facial bone fracture); QUESTIONABLE: DF Marvell Wynne (quad); PROBABLE: DF Adrian Serioux (neck); FW Pablo Vitti (quad)

It does pain us to make this pick, my brothers and sister in Black and Gold, but the facts speak for themselves: At -153 at home, to stay in the hunt for their first ever playoff bid, Toronto FC are a good bet to win this one.

MLS Handicapping: Dallas at San Jose

By El Luchador and El Chupacabra
Here's the Masked One’s look at the MLS midweek fixture featuring Dallas at San Jose. These two teams are extremely closely matched, and this one is probably only for our most compulsive brothers and sisters. SJ is in second-to-last place in the league table. But with some recent decent form they have crawled their way up to 28 PTS overall, a mere 5 pts behind DAL. The patented LUCHAMETRIC system places these two bottom feeders only .62 of a Standard Deviation apart, which is largely due to Dallas' considerable advantage in Total Goals Scored, 45 to SJ's 32. The numbers tell us that DAL create more shots but only slightly more Shots on Goal. However, in our measure of Quality Scoring Chances, Dallas have an advantage. Still, this one is very close. Both have a good recent form at +2 (Wins minus Losses last four games). El Luchador and El Chupa both recommend sitting this one out, but if you have to bet to earn back some of the kids' milk money that you lost last week betting on Colorado yet again, try taking the Earthquakes or better yet the tie.

MONEY LINE
DAL -120 Draw +210 SJO +120

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage DAL: -.08 to -.70

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage SJO - DAL have not played since last Wednesday at home, but will travel nearly 1,500 miles for this match.

INSPIRATION Advantage DAL - SJO are playing for pride, DAL have three games with which to produce as many PTS as possible and thus overtake New England for the last playoff spot. With COL and SEA looming, this is a must win, and 3 points on the road at SJO coupled with a New England loss to the Crew (yeah baby!) would put DAL within three PTS of NE. Plus, SJ will be playing on three days rest after their 1-0 home victory over the Red Bulls.

HISTORY Draw - Since San Jose returned to the league last year, they have met Dallas three times, and every time the result was the same: Draw.

ENVIRONMENT Draw - Both teams play virtually at sea level in similar climes. Game time temp is expected to be a perfect 60 degrees. If there is a slight advantage it is for SJ, who have enjoyed decent, supportive home crowds and a 4 percent boost in attendance this year.

RECENT FORM Draw - Both teams are +2 (wins minus losses last four games)

MLS Power Rankings: Playoff Picture Clearly a Joke

By El Chupacabra
The playoff picture has gotten a bit clearer but also a bit more dramatic as both Chivas USA (dirty hacks--only RSL and SEA have more Reds and Yellows) and New England are making a serious run for the final two spots.

Our rankings, however, are not as impressed with New England as the suits at MLS who came up with this ridiculous playoff system. As we've said before, mediocre teams get into the playoffs in order to generate revenue not because of the logic of sport, certainly not the logic of football. Chivas can at least make a case for belonging in the top tier, as they have a Z score in the LM nearly .5 above the league average. New England? How about -.16 Standard Deviations BELOW the league average. Yeah, a team whose total production for the season and per game is LESS THAN AVERAGE has a shot at the post-season. Nice job MLS. You've created a sport product that has taken the sport out of the product. Freaking corporate scum.

Sigi’s Prodigal Return Brings Justice and With It Heartache

By El Luchador

The same man who started the longest home unbeaten streak in MLS history, has now ended it.

Former Crew Skipper Sigi Schmid triumphantly returned to Columbus on Saturday night to beat his former assistant Robert Warzycha in a dramatic and erratic 1-0 jamboree before a large and boisterous crowd at Crew Stadium.

On June 7, 2008, the Columbus Crew lost 2-0 at home to the San Jose Earthquakes. No one knew at the time that it would be nearly 16 months and 22 home games before the Crew would lose again in C-Bus. How uncanny that this defeat would come at the hands of the who man started the whole streak to begin with on that warm summer evening last June, the man who brought Columbus her first ever professional championship just last year, the man who was dissed by Crew General Manager Mark McCullers, the man who is the most Massive coach in the MLS?

This match was a cautionary morality tale on two levels. First, if you fuck people as hard as McCullers fucked Sigi, there will be consequences. What comes around goes around. This is why El Luchador did not bet on this game. It was writ large in the heavens that sooner or later McCullers would have to look down from his luxury box to see the Fat Man laughing.

But second and more importantly, you can only take the pro wrestling, South American style of football so far before the cosmic balance of justice and karma comes back to restore equilibrium in the universe.

Even as a devoted fan, El Luchador could see clearly that Alejandro Moreno and Guillermo Barros Schelotto both tried to dive their way to glory in this game, as they have so many times before. Ryan Kozlowski wrote at Crewture recently about how in the last few weeks, the Black and Gold relied on a penalty kick to give them a 2-1 win over Houston at home, a penalty kick to give them a 2-2 away tie against Chicago, and nearly used a penalty kick to take them to the CONCACAF Champions League knockout round this week.

Finally it caught up with us on Saturday as the gods reached down and pushed the wizard Schelotto’s 83^rd minute PK wide left.

This wasn’t a simple loss that we witnessed my brothers and sisters. This was Manifest Destiny.

This loss was as hard on El Luchador as it was on any living, breathing fan of the Yellow Soccer Team. But two things make it easier to swallow: 1) We saw that this was an inevitable consequence resulting of our own wicked behaviour. And 2) We didn’t lay any money on this one.

Columbus till I die.

EPL Handicapping: Wigan at Hull

By El Chupacabra

A lot of games this weekend in the EPL, including matches Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Here's our best pick for Saturday's fixtures.

Take Wigan to Win at Hull
The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that Wigan are the better side, with a higher production score that amounts to a difference in standard deviation of .75. This puts the two teams rather close, especially with Hull's home advantage. However, Wigan have an advantage in Shots, Shots on Goal, Goals Against, Shots on Goals Against, and Goal Differential, suggesting they'll get more opportunities to score. Hull is giving up 2.71 Goals per Game, which is close to the league average for TOTAL goals scored by each team per game. Of course, 6 of those goals were scored by Liverpool in a single match. Regardless, we don't expect Hull to threaten much, and Wigan scored 3 goals last week on Chelsea. Both teams will contest this one fiercely, as both could use three points -- Wigan to regain the form they showed last year and to prove that last week's defeat of Chelsea was no fluke, and Hull to keep from losing four in a row, which would have them staring relegation in the face after only 8 games. Oh, and Phil "The Douche" Brown's job is on the line. This could mean the players play hard to save his job. . . or it COULD meand that they phone it in so he gets fired and upper management can get someone to replace him that the players actually like, respect and for whom they will perform better.

MONEY LINE
Wigan +150 TIE +210 Hull +150

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage Wigan: Wigan .16; Hull -3.06 or .75 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Draw: Both teams have had a week off, and Wigan are only traveling about 125 miles.

INSPIRATION Advantage Wigan: Both teams have something to play for, but Hull are downright dysfunctional. Wigan want to regain the form that last year had them threatening to place in the top 7. They also need to prove they can win away from home and that the wins against Villa and Chelsea were legit. Hull is staring relegation in the face and needs to turn things around toot sweet. But here's the difference: Hull's dressing room has never recovered from last year's mid year antics by Manager Phil Brown. And the Scotsman this week admitted that he does not have the complete confidence of his men, calling on some to exhibit more "bravery."

INJURIES Advantage Wigan: Wigan are fully fit; Hull have some minor injury problems.

HISTORY Advantage Wigan: All time results in all competitions: Wigan 7 Draw 6 Hull 4

RECENT FORM Advantage Wigan: Wigan LLLWLW (6 points out of 6) Hull LWDLLL (4 points out of 6)

MLS Preview and Handicapping: New England at FC Dallas

By El Chupa

We hesitate to post lest we distract our readers from the crisis surrounding Nordecke outlined by El Luchador below. But duty calls.

Take Dallas at +110. New England is making a run at the end of the season but Dallas is tough at home and NE is hurt...bad. Dallas is also scoring like crazy. They are very close in the Luchametric and Dallas at home in need of three points to keep their play-off hopes alive is good bet.

UEFA Champions League Handicaping: Wednesday's Tips and Previews

By El Chupa

Wednesday's matches offer a bit more for both the fan and the wagerer than today's matches. Here's our skinny:

Zurich at AC Milan - This should prove to be an entertaining match, although the odds don't really make it a promising match to throw some money on. The nod here goes to Milan playing at home, but Zurich will play them tough. Gamblers looking to get lucky might go for the draw here, as a Zurich win is unlikely, and the odds for Milan not worth the risk.

Juventus at Bayern Munchen - This should prove to be another great match for the fan. And for the wagerer this may be the best match of the day. Juventus has the edge in our view in terms of being the better side and are being given +230, which is seductive to say the least. But Bayern is 3 and 2 in its last 5 matches and they're playing at home. After last year's debacle in the knock-out stage, which resulted in Klinsman's exit as coach, you can be sure Bayern is looking to do better, which means they need to get out of the group stage. They are currently in 7th in the Bundesliga behind Wolfsburg. We think the draw here is the best bet. Juventus will be happy to come away with one point.

ATL Madrid at Porto - This should be yet another entertaining match. But punters should stay away. It could go either way very easily, in our view.

Marseille at Real Madrid - Real is the team to beat this year in the Champions League, along with Barca and Chelsea. We already have the Barca v. Real Madrid match on our calendar as a good day to call in sick and quaff some home brew. Take Real as one half of a parlay. It's as good as in the bank.

Wolfsburg at Man U - This could be an entertaining match, but as we said yesterday, we look for Man U to break through and dominate in the second half, especially at home against a Wolfsburg side struggling to match last year's form. Take Man U as part of a two game parlay with Real Madrid and enjoy a truly outstanding day of European football. We hope you have your DVR ready.

MLS Power Rankings: Crew Sees Daylight

By El Chupa
El Luchador's MLS Power Rankings have been fully updated, and the Crew now enjoys over one-half of a StandDev over it's nearest rival, Chicago. LA has dropped to third followed by Seattle and Houston who are neck and neck for fourth.

The Crew's important victory over the Galaxy is significant, especially in light of the rest of the games this weekend, in that the boys in Black and Gold are clearly the premier team in the league. COL is beat up and can't win at home or on the road against a lesser opponent. DC is simply toothless. CHI can't protect it's home turf and is as inconsistent as is the rest of the league--that is, except the Crew. Only the Crew win when they are supposed to win and draw when they play a tough team on the road (CHI). The Crew have only one loss in their last 10 games. No on else in the league can say as much. The loss to NY now looks like a little bump on the road. In short, only the Crew has been consistent, and only the Crew consistently shows up and gets it done.

The win against LA is also significant in that the boys beat the Galaxy without even running out its best 11. This speaks to their depth and the genius of Sigi Schmid. He is keeping the team rested but getting as much out of them as is needed. We look forward to the playoffs.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Luchametric 3.0

By El Chupa
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's match between Sunderland and Wolves. We've simplified the chart to make it easier for our loyal readers. The chart now provides the Luchametric score, the number of Standard Deviations above or below the mean (Z Score) of the club's Luchametric score, and finally, the actual number of points the club has earned thus far to allow for comparisons.

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are now making the Luchametric data available to our readers as an Excel spreadsheet. Look at the top of column two to the right to find the link. The MLS data will be available later today.

No real changes this week, except that Man U is gaining on Chelsea, and there is now little daylight separating the two clubs. Also, Spurs are lower than both Man City and Arsenal, in spite of being ahead in the actual standings. We stand by our rankings.

Finally, we have some bad news for Burnley fans, something we've observed for the last few weeks but have held back commenting on. In spite of their nine points, Burnely lag far behind the rest of the league in the Luchametric's overall measure of production. In our view, Burnley actually are in grave danger of being relegated. We don't see them earning many points the rest of the year given the overall numbers unless things start to pick up for them and toot sweet. They are far below the league averages for Shots, Shots on Goal, and Goals Scored. You heard it here first.

MLS Handicapping: Preview and Betting Tips for This Weekend's Fixtures

By El Chupa
Overall, we're not too excited about this weekend's matches from a wagering standpoint. But we offer these humble suggestions.

LA at Crew - We think this is a likely draw. A VERY likely draw. And at +215, a very good wager. But we love the Crew too much not to hope for a win. Betting our mind and not our heart is not in our makeup, however. Look for El Luchador to put it all on the line in this one.

Seattle at New England - We like NE here, at home, fighting for a playoff spot. At +105 it's a decent wager. As far as we're concerned, both teams have been inconsistent and are part of the parity problem in MLS. This is also one worth avoiding as it could be low scoring and all it will take is an odd bounce or call to decide the match. But if we had to choose, we'd choose NE.

COL at KC - At +210 and a full STDEV above KC in the Luchametric, we very much like COL here. They need three points and have already beaten KC this year. We don't expect a lot of goals out of either team, however. Check COL's roster to see who's in and who's out. COL was all over SJO on Wednesday and were screwed by yet another bad call. Imagine that! Crappy officiating in the MLS. What a surprise. Update: COL is beat up pretty badly. This one is now too close to call.

RSL at DAL - We like DAL at even odds here. They are tough at home and teams wilt in the heat. For those of you in the North or Northwest of the country, take it from someone who lives on the GA/FL border. It's still hot as F down here.

Pick of the Week - COL to win at KC

EPL Handicapping: Betting Advice on this Week's Fixtures

By El Chupa
It's probably worth pointing out at this point that El Chupa and El Luchador have slightly different betting strategies.

El Luchador likes to go for the big fish. He trolls the deep water for the big catches, i.e., low percentage wagers with high payouts. His balls are large.

El Chupa lacks the intestinal fortitude of his mentor and instead looks for high percentage wagers that pay less-than-even odds. This can still be a substantial percentage of the original wager (50-90%) but certainly not double the money or better. Slow and steady is his motto.

This tends to result in El Luchador going for parlays that will pay big when they come in, while El Chupa looks for parlays that are virtually sure things (if there is such a thing) but offer less of a reward. It also means El Chupa is VERY judicious about the straight bets he makes. El Luchador? Not so much. . .

This also means that El Chupa often uses his statistical acumen, such as it is, to identify matches one should AVOID, as well as matches that look like high percentage wagers. When he can find a match he think is both a solid wager AND +100 or better odds, he is VERY happy.

So, on to this week's picks.

Everton at Portsmouth - This one is intriguing as Everton is being given only -115, practically begging you to put $15 on what looks like a mismatch. We don't like Everton's defense at all, they're giving up too many goals. And they haven't earned a single point away from home. But Portsmouth looks so freaking helpless that it's hard to predict when they will break out of their funk. It certainly will be at home, right? But against Everton? We think not. This match could also make one game of a parlay, as the -115 will help boost your payout if you pick a DEFINITE mismatch like Burnley at Spurs, which we think will result in Spurs demolishing the visiting side. Currently, our book is paying +140 on a two-game parlay of Everton and Spurs.

Aston Villa at Blackburn - This match is intriguing as we have Villa rated very high in the power rankings, and the +120 odds are attractive. However, our data also tells us that Blackburn doesn't give up shots, doesn't give up shots on goal, and doesn't give up corners. They are right at the league average for GA with 8. So Villa has their work cut out for them. El Chupa will be very tempted to look at this one closely and take a straight bet on one of these two teams.

Arsenal at Fulham - It's tempting to think Fulham will play Arsenal tough at Craven Cottage (coolest freaking name ever), but we think Arsenal will overpower the homeside and quite possibly when by a two-goal margin. We've been unimpressed with Fulham so far, and think that they look like goals will be hard to come by. They only have 16 SOG all season and only Burnley is worse with 13 (the league average is 27). The over is not paying well, and we can't see Fulham winning a goal-fest. This would be a good match for a parlay.

Upset of the week: Man U at Stoke - Do we think Stoke will beat Man U? No. But at +675, wtf? Put up $5. Man U is going to give up goals this year, and they will lose one or two more matches to the likes of Burnley. So, trust your gut, or not, whatever. Fuck Man U.

LA at Columbus Preview: Offensive Statistical Insights

By El Chupa
First off, I know you can't see the data given the technical limitations of free blogging, but if you click on the image at the left you'll be able to see a much larger version of it. Here's the skinny.

The chart gives us a break down of each team's leading offensive players. And as we've explained elsewhere, Pro and Pro/GM are Luchametric numbers that allow us to compare the overall offensive contributions or production of individual players. As you can see, Garey leads both teams with 4.05/GM, followed by Beckham, Schelotto, Buddle, Donovan and Lenhart. In Overall Production for the season, Schelotto is on top followed by Donovan, and both are light-years ahead of the rest of the players on both teams. This is not only a reflection of their individual ability, but also their role on their respective teams (the fact that their job is to score and create scoring chances for others so they will naturally have higher numbers than, say, the goalkeeper). Notice also that Schelotto leads both teams when it comes to how many minutes it takes him before he produces either a Goal or an Assist with 105. Garey is second at 110.5 followed by Donovan (115.31) and then Beckham (124.6).

And as we've discussed elsewhere, we think one of the leading indicators of the quality of a scorer is the percentage of Shots on Goal that player turns into actual goals, as a scorer's merit is determined not simply by how many opportunities he either creates on his own or are given to him by his teammates, but the rate at which he actually converts those opportunities into goals. And in this category, Schelotto is the winner, as over one-half of his SOGs turn in to actual goals. Give him an inch, he'll take a freaking mile. Donovan is second at .40.

The numbers tell us what most of us already know: these teams match up extremely closely offensively. Both Beckham and Garey lead their respective teams in Pro/GM but both have played only just over 600 minutes. This suggests that given more playing time, their numbers would drop back down a bit closer to the standard set by Schelotto and Donovan, if not lower. But clearly each team can get goals out of a number of different players and from a number of positions on the field.

One thing we like about the Crew, however, is that they have more players with over two goals each. This confirms what we've already known for a while: that the Crew is very balanced and deep when it comes to putting players on the pitch who can pressure the other team and get the ball in the back of the net (case in point: Lenhart coming off the bench). In a tight game, especially late in the game, this gives the Crew a definite advantage over the rest of the league and over LA, especially at home. It also speaks well for the team's prospects in the playoffs.

MLS Handicapping: San Jose at Colorado (Updated)

By El Chupa

Well, we blew it again. And lost money to boot. SJO obviously has COL's number and has gotten so deep in their heads that COL can't even manage a win at home. Beyond the obvious bad voodoo however, it's clear that COL has problems scoring, and that all it takes is a bad call here, a fluke hand-ball there, and you end up with a mere four goals from four PKs across two games and a mere two points earned per team. Even if COL makes the playoffs, we don't expect them to figure much in the road to the championship. And that's not sour grapes, we bear no ill-will to the Rapids. We just don't see how they'll get very far in the MLS's second season when they have to grind out wins even when they're home. Defense keeps you in games, but eventually you have to start scoring more goals then your opponents.

This is coming a bit late in the day and will be short and sweet. Take Colorado at -118 if you don't mind risking a bit for what we think is a high percentage wager (El Chupa hopes to make 50% tonight). Colorado is tough as hell at home. They don't allow goals, they don't even allow shots on goal, a category in which they lead the league with a shockingly low 81, WELL below the league average. The difference in the Luchametric is high and Colorado needs 3 pts to stay in the playoff picture. We thus think it's high time for COL to break through against San Jose and that they will. Pickens and Clark are probably still out, but Mastroeni will be back. The loss of Pickens is most troubling, but again, Burpo shouldn't face many shots, especially at home. San Jose is going from sea-level to a mile high, and their "resurgence" has been at home, not on the road. They absolutely stink on the road. Their recent form is not as good as you might think either. If you're worried about Pickens being out, take the draw.

Our prediction: SJO 1 Col 2.

LA vs Crew Preview: To Parity and Beyond!

By El Chupa
As the numbers to the left reveal (click to see a larger image), the Crew and LA are tied in virtually every category. The Crew have a narrow lead in total points, and points earned per game. And they have more home wins (HW), but they have only one more win overall than the Galaxy. The Crew have 38 Total Goals to the Galaxy's 35, and they both have virtually the same number of Shots and Shots on Goal. They also are basically tied when it comes to Shots on Goal per Game, Corners Taken, Shots on Goal Allowed, and Corners Against. QSHT is a raw measure of the number of SOGs above the league average that each team has created that were indeed high quality scoring chances, and again the difference is negligible. Most importantly, the Luchametric has them separated by a mere .3 of a STDEV. That amounts to a deadlock. Finally, it must be noted that LA's numbers don't reflect a full season with Beckham in the lineup.

This game will come down to tactics, individual match-ups, home field advantage, and whether each team performs to its full potential. We fear the Crew are staring another draw in the face, with which they should probably be satisfied. The pressure to send a message to LA and the league by earning a full three points is high, however, and the Crew are running out of home games. The pressure not to give up three points, however, is even higher. We'll be doing a comparison of each team's scorers later today or tomorrow.