Crew at Seattle Preview: A Test of Both Teams

By MJD

This weekend's fixture between the Crew and Seattle is a tough test for both clubs.  Seattle badly needs three points.  They've only earned 8 PTS over 6 games thus far and are 2-2-2 on the season.  With a full 20% of the season elapsed for the Sounders, they need to step it up or kiss their playoff hopes and its revenue goodbye. Currently, Seattle is at 1.33 PPG. This would get them to 40 PTS for the season, which historically for the MLS has been the cut-off point for getting into the playoffs.  However, our metric is slightly more dour for Sounders fans.  Our current projection is for Seattle to top off at 34 PTS for the season, given their current rate of projection.  Regardless of which measure you prefer, the Green Wave can't afford to drop anymore points at home.

Meanwhile, the Crew have earned a semi-massive 7 PTS in three games, and at 2-1-0 would appear to be the favorite.  Alas, things are not that simple.

It's certainly true that of the the three opponents both teams have faced (TOR, DAL and RSL), the Crew are 2-1-0 with 7 PTS earned while Seattle is 0-2-1 with two PTS earned.  And the Crew are averaging 1.67 GF/GM to Seattle's 1.17.  And thanks to His Royal Majesty King Funk, AKA Billy Jack, AKA William Hesmer, the Crew is giving up only .67 GA compared to Seattle's 1.17.

Overall, however, Seattle has faced a tougher schedule, and one must be careful in assuming that the Crew's numbers are a true indication of their performance.  Seattle's six opponents have averaged 1.2 PPG or -.48 on the LM.  The Crew have faced three opponents who have earned an average of .92 PPG or -1.09 on the LM.  And as we've indicated in an earlier post, the Crew's defense is suspect.

Note also that the table above tells us that the Crew give up more SHTA and SOGA per game than the Sounders, while the number of SHT and SOG each team produces per game are relatively the same.  And both teams are producing less than the league average number of SOG per game.  The Crew does have an advantage in our measure of Quality Shots on Goal, however, suggesting that they need fewer chances to capitalize.  And the Sounders have given up 1 more goal than expected (EGA in the table above) given how many chances opponents have produced against them.

To sum: here's hoping Hesmer keeps up his excellent work, that the Crew's attack gets production from more than just Big Willy Schelotto (who may not even play), and that the Sounders "struggles" (hey, they're currently fourth in the league in the single table) continue.  Unfortunately, this one looks headed for a low-scoring draw.  Take the under at -114 (1.88) if you really feel the need to put some money down on this one.  Or throw the dice on the Crew at +200 (3.00) if you think the Black and Gold's attack is finally going to break through and do some damage.  But honestly? I'd avoid it like the plague.

Sigi’s Prodigal Return Brings Justice and With It Heartache

By El Luchador

The same man who started the longest home unbeaten streak in MLS history, has now ended it.

Former Crew Skipper Sigi Schmid triumphantly returned to Columbus on Saturday night to beat his former assistant Robert Warzycha in a dramatic and erratic 1-0 jamboree before a large and boisterous crowd at Crew Stadium.

On June 7, 2008, the Columbus Crew lost 2-0 at home to the San Jose Earthquakes. No one knew at the time that it would be nearly 16 months and 22 home games before the Crew would lose again in C-Bus. How uncanny that this defeat would come at the hands of the who man started the whole streak to begin with on that warm summer evening last June, the man who brought Columbus her first ever professional championship just last year, the man who was dissed by Crew General Manager Mark McCullers, the man who is the most Massive coach in the MLS?

This match was a cautionary morality tale on two levels. First, if you fuck people as hard as McCullers fucked Sigi, there will be consequences. What comes around goes around. This is why El Luchador did not bet on this game. It was writ large in the heavens that sooner or later McCullers would have to look down from his luxury box to see the Fat Man laughing.

But second and more importantly, you can only take the pro wrestling, South American style of football so far before the cosmic balance of justice and karma comes back to restore equilibrium in the universe.

Even as a devoted fan, El Luchador could see clearly that Alejandro Moreno and Guillermo Barros Schelotto both tried to dive their way to glory in this game, as they have so many times before. Ryan Kozlowski wrote at Crewture recently about how in the last few weeks, the Black and Gold relied on a penalty kick to give them a 2-1 win over Houston at home, a penalty kick to give them a 2-2 away tie against Chicago, and nearly used a penalty kick to take them to the CONCACAF Champions League knockout round this week.

Finally it caught up with us on Saturday as the gods reached down and pushed the wizard Schelotto’s 83^rd minute PK wide left.

This wasn’t a simple loss that we witnessed my brothers and sisters. This was Manifest Destiny.

This loss was as hard on El Luchador as it was on any living, breathing fan of the Yellow Soccer Team. But two things make it easier to swallow: 1) We saw that this was an inevitable consequence resulting of our own wicked behaviour. And 2) We didn’t lay any money on this one.

Columbus till I die.

MLS Handicapping: Nothing for Certain; Pick Your Poison

By El Chupa

El Luchador has made his opinions known about COL at SJO. In looking over the rest of this weekend's matches, El Chupa can only add that there are few if any high-percentage wagers. He can offer some advice, however.

We like NY at home, but only because it's offering the best cash line for a reasonable roll of the dice. They are 2-0-2 at home in their last four home games, and depending on which NY Red Bulls team shows up, they could either win or lose. We certainly expect there to be fewer than three goals, but the line on the under is rather lame.

We like SEA at home against CVS at even odds. SEA is due for a home win and although don't need three points, a win would send a message that they can beat someone other than DC.

Finally, we like the two-game parlay of HOU and LA. Both are at home, and both could use three points, as there aren't many games left and every team needs to get points at home if they hope to earn as many points as possible out of the few points available this late in the season.

MLS Power Rankings: Crew and LA Still Headed for Showdown

By El Chupa
We've tweaked the metric and updated the rankings through last weekend's games. The Crew are still on top. Regardless of LA's embarrassing loss at home to bottom feeders DAL, they maintain their hold on second place. CHI and DC round out the top four.

One obvious oddity: DC is ranked higher than SEA. Look, DC has lost to SEA twice in the last two weeks and yet DC is ranked higher. Get over it. SEA has DC's number and obviously match up better against DC than DC matches up against them. But in terms of overall production week in and week out (wins, losses, goals, etc) DC is slightly better. We stand by the rankings in spite of the head-to-head results. Right now DC's recent form is +2 while SEA's is -2. That's a big part of the difference in the rankings.

In terms of the tweaks to the metric, we think we were weighting away wins too high and losses too low. We also took out Assists and Shots entirely, and we added a measure we call "Quality Chances" or essentially "Quality SOGs." This is a measure of the percentage of SHTS and SOGS a team creates which were actually good chances to score rather than crappy shots that had no chance at all. We've noticed that overall, the sheer number of SHTS a team generates is not a useful way of distinguishing one team from another in terms of actual goals scored. The ratio of SHTs to Gs varies hardly at all across the league. But we HAVE noticed that the best teams have a slightly higher percentage of Goals to SOGS. In other words, the best teams get more goals out of the sheer number of SOGs they create. Another way to think of it is that not all SHTs or SOGs are created equally, so the metric needs to address this. A lame-ass SOG that has absolutely no chance of going in the net ends up in the box score as a SOG and so gets weighted in the metric just as heavily as an SOG that was in fact a true quality scoring chance. The new category attempts to address this by distinguishing teams in terms of how many actual quality scoring chances they create relative to the rest of the league. We'll break the numbers down in more detail later in the week. Right now. El Chupa has to get back to work.

Catering to the Masses: Not!

By El Chupa
Just a quick note before I try to get the MLS stats updated for release later today. As we noted last week, and as Eric Wynalda pointed out last night on Fox Football Fone-In, the MLS has got to quit trying to lure American Sports fans away from NASCAR and SEC football and start catering to American Soccer fans. Period. Wynalda goes even further, asking pointedly: why cater to soccer moms who don't know anything about the game when you can cater to the millions of knowledgeable football fans and thus build both the game and the league's marketshare? El Chupa is 42. He went to an NASL playoff game between New England and Rochester in the late 1970s. He played nothing but soccer from the time he was 8 until he graduated high school, MVP of his high school team. He grew up not in California or the Northeast corridor but deep in the midwest. In short, soccer is not "new." Everytime he hears an undereducated and overpaid sportscaster describe American soccer and the MLS as emergent he reaches for a gun but usually pops a Xanax instead. Seattle sells 24,000+ tickets a game not because soccer in the Pacific NW is a new fad, but because it's deeply ingrained in the psyche of its people. The MLS doesn't understand this and needs to rethink its business model.

Bet On The Crew to Tie at Sounders

Injuries will likely decide tonight’s match with Seattle Sounders.

The betting in Vegas and off shore is on Seattle to win, with the line set at 1.8 ($10 nets $8). A good bet tonight would be for a tie with the line currently set at 3.25 ($10 nets $22.50). This would be a very respectable result for the Black & Gold, battered and far from home.

A blindly loyal Crew fan would lay down on the win with the line at a disrespectful 4 ($10 nets $30). As much as El Luchador wants to believe, has children to feed and won't be making this bet tonight.

Seattle Injuries include: Cuban midfielder Osvaldo Alonso (quad strain), former Crew member Brad Evans who is questionable, and defensive midfielder Zach Scott who suffered an abdominal injury against Dallas. The big question mark is former Freddie Ljungberg who has suffered mysterious, severe migraine headaches but is listed now back in the line up tonight.

Crew injuries include Goalkeeper William Hesmer, defender Frankie Hejduk and midfielder Brian Carroll, who is expected to miss a minimum of two games with the separated shoulder he received in the mugging by San Jose Wednesday night. Also out are Adam Moffat and defender Andy Iro.

El Luchador is calling it a tie, 1-1.

Ezra's First Coaching Job Good For Him, Good For Seattle, Bad For Crew

The Seattle Sounders’ hiring of veteran former Crew defender Ezra Hendrickson as an assistant to Sigi Schmid does not bode well for the Crew. Why you ask? Because Sigi has a history of bringing players from his old teams with him when he jumps ship, and it is likely we will see more of this.

Top of the list of potential Schmid defections from the Crew to the Sounders is Alejandra Moreno.

Dec. 22, Schmid told “Fox Football Fone In,” that he would not hesitate to pillage: “… As players become available, just like I brought Alejandro Moreno to Columbus and he was very helpful to me, if people become available and I think there’s somebody who can help the team, I will do it.”

Any questions?

El Luchador has inside knowledge that Hendrickson was in negotiations with Schmid before he announced his retirement Jan. 8, and the possibility of going to Seattle under Schmid as a coach played a huge factor in Ezra’s decision.

Whether it is Moreno or others, make no mistake, Ezra will not be the last player to leave Columbus for Seattle this year.

With his years of experience, warm presence and strong leadership, Ezra will make an excellent assistant. For the second time in two months, what's good for Seattle is not so good for the Black and Gold.

Marshall Waits, Sigi Announcement Tomorrow

Some random dispatches from El Luchador:

• Tribal Football reports that Chad Marshall’s agent has said the Crew big man will not get an answer on whether he has made the Mainz squad in Budesliga until after the New Year.
• The Seattle Sounders official site reports that the new coach (Sigi Schmid) will be unveiled at a news conference Tuesday at 11 a.m. Pacific Time (2 p.m. Eastern). It’s reported that Mark McCullers will be there to throw his shoes at Sigi.
• It’s still not official, but Sports Illustrated is the latest to report what is looking like a forgone conclusion: USSF has decided to forgo Crew Stadium for this February’s World Cup qualifier between the U.S. and Mexico and instead hold it in the newest soccer stadium in the U.S., Real Salt Lake’s Rio Tinto Stadium. Many in the blogosphere are up in arms, and this is understandable. However, El Luchador looks with disdain on anyone who would root against their own country just because the game was moved.
• Finally, a non-soccer related note. In case anyone missed it, here is a good video of an Iraqi folk hero throwing his shoe at George Bush. El Luchador strongly endorses this type of behavior.

Sigi Interviews in Seattle

Sigi Schmid spent Thursday in Seattle and will remain there today as he prepares for his inevitable move from Columbus, the Seattle Times reports.

It is truly odd that Clark Hunt and the other capitalists at the Crew factory seem to have no qualms about letting go the man who took them to the Promised Land. Goal.com agrees with El Luchador on this point.

Will Robert Warzycha be named the permanent head, or will he suffer the indignation of another interim stint as the men who control the means of production at Crew Stadium look elsewhere for a leader of the club?

The Polish Rifle deserves the support of all working men and women of Crew Soccer Nation.