Statistics are fine, but they lie. This Friday’s San Jose v Colorado matchup is an example. With the Luchametric showing COL with season production at +55 and SJ at -52, one would think the safe money would be on COL. Wrong.
El Luchador will be betting $100 on San Jose using one of his many favored off-shore gambling sites. The line is currently set at +145. The masked one isn’t saying you should make this bet too. He’s just saying.
Why, you ask? Why should you forgo the cold comfort of El Chupa's precious numbers?
Colorado will be without play-making midfielders Pablo Mastroeni (Disciplinary Committee decision) and Colin Clark (L ACL tear) as well as goalkeeper Matt Pickens (R knee sprain).
San Jose is almost 100 percent, with the important exception of forward Darren Huckerby (R hip surgery). But their recent form has been decent even without the tattooed white trash British scorer. San Jose have not lost at home since a hard-fought defeat to Toronto FC on July 11, with the lone exception of a 3-0 drubbing Aug. 8 at the hands of our beloved Crew. Who doesn’t lose to the Crew?
Since the All-Star break, the Earthquakes have destroyed the previously impressive Seattle 4-0, beat KC 1-0, barely lost to New England on the road 2-1, and last week made visiting amateur Bay-area MLS-wannabe Copa Alianza All-Stars look like school girls with a 6-0 bitch slapping.
San Jose are coming in fresh at home having not played an MLS match in two weeks. And they sit dead last in the West with no realistic possibility of making the playoffs. They have nothing to lose and will fight like the Taliban.
Meanwhile, COL have been on the road for almost two weeks and have lost 3 of their last 6 matches, including a 3-2 loss Saturday to sucky Toronto. Look for the Earthquakes to beat the Rockies. Do it.
El Chupa would merely add that the numbers don't lie, per se, they simply don't reflect the fact that COL will be without several key players. El Chupa would also add that in crunching the numbers, he discovered that without their starting keeper, COL is much more vulnerable. Pickens has a GAA average of 1.16, his backup Burpo has a GAA of 1.6. And COL stinks on the road. Do the math.
El Luchador is a foot soldier in the populist soccer Revolution. Speaking from the perspective of the streets, El Luchador is here for every working man and woman in the Crew Soccer Nation.
Fighting the good fight since 1996, Nordecke Luchador joins hands with his brothers and sisters across the land, in solidarity for the Black and Gold, from the Scioto to the Olentangy, from South Bloomfield to Delaware. From Reynoldburg to West Jeff. Columbus Till I Die.
GMS=Games Played: LM=Lucametric Score; Z Score=Z score for the LM; PTS=Actual Points Earned; P Pts= projected points to be earned by end of season; For more comprehensive data, click on image.
Final EPL 2010-11 Team Stats June 15, 2011 (Short Version)
For more complete data click on table
EPL and MLS Power Rankings, Handicapping and Comprehensive Statistics
The Luchametric is a weighted statistical score that measures a team's overall production. The LM represents the total number of offensive events the team creates each game (for example, Shots and Shots on goal) minus the total number of offensive events per game the team allows to be created against it. Each event is weighted in terms of its relative "worth" in goals.
The weights for each category were derived by looking at a range of variables (statistical categories) and subjecting them to simple regression analysis to identify those stats which were the strongest measure of a team's strength relative to other teams. The metric considers and weights the following variables:
Home Goals, Away Goals, Home Wins, Away Wins, Draws, Losses, Shots, Shots on Goals, Quality Shots on Goal, Corners For, Corners Against, Goals Against, Shots Against, Shots on Goal Against, and Recent Form.
The Z-score gives the relative differences among the teams in Standard Deviations. In other words, if Chelsea has a Z-score of 2.0 and Hull has one of -2.0, Hull is 4 full standard deviations below Chelsea in the rankings. Based on our analysis, in the EPL and the MLS, a difference of one full Standard Deviation indicates a significant difference between any two teams.
To download Excel files containing the comprehensive team stats, click on the appropriate link below. To be put on our mailing list and receive the Luchametric Power Rankings as soon as they are up, including an Excel file with that week's data, click here.
MLS Fixtures Odds, Probabilities, Recomendations: August 19, 2010
Our recommendation is based on the LM Power Rankings, a comprehensive statistical comparison of both clubs, and our overall estimation of the real probability of a win by either club combined with the value of the payout offered by the books. "Added Value" is our estimation of any additional percentage probability of a win. So a team with an added value of +10 is deemed to have an additonal 10% chance of winning. A team with a negative added valude is deemed to have less of a percentage chance to win. Recommendations in blue are our best bets.
A spontaneous celebration for the Crew's 2-0 win over the New York Red Bulls, Saturday, July 18, 2010
Life is a Lottery
For the Faithful
Read For Yourself
Here's the MLS Collective Bargaining Agreement that expired this year. It reads like an Indian treaty. When the new one is available, we will post it.
Steven Lenhart AKA "DJ Funky Stevie L"
OFFICIAL PLAYLIST OF THE MLS SOLIDARITY MOVEMENT
Los Straitjackets
A Message from Crew General Manager Mark McCullers (From the Black & Gold Standard)
Nordecke Supporters:
I have received several emails regarding the increased security presence in the Nordecke for the Saprissa match. We have respectfully requested that the chants including profanity, most importantly GTFO, cease. Unfortunately that chant has continued, specifically during the Cruz Azul match and then several times during the LA match. During our highest attended game of the year, with the opportunity to impress people that might attend more Crew games at Crew stadium, we instead left a negative impression with unnecessary chanting of unacceptable profanity.We have received numerous complaints from fans, and now have indications from sponsors that they are reconsidering their financial support because they cannot be associated with an environment that includes this behavior. My pride in the Nordecke and what it brings to the club is deep and well documented. But this behavior, again, compromises our repuation and cannot be tolerated. We must identify and deal with those who insist on perpetuating this behavior, which explains the increased security measures.
I apologize to those who respect our policies and standards. I hope that those who disrespect the club and others in the stadium begin to understand our position and refrain from unnecessary and detrimental behavior. Until then, we must take action to protect our reputation and collective interests.
This is an exciting time for our team and organization. I regret that this blemish has once again manifested itself and hope that it is quickly resolved.
Sincerest regards, Mark
WE SUPPORT COLUMBUS, AND THAT'S THE WAY WE LIKE IT...
For Elizabeth: It ain't Freaking Tiddly Winks People; Get Real
For the Faithful: Fershizzle. . .
For the Faithful: Toronto FC Fan
For the Faithful: Grasshopper
For the Faithful
El Luchador Rallies the Freaking Troops
Vishnu Hairy Krishna Vishnu Vishnu Hairy Hairy
Football Lovefest
Come on Crew!
El Luchador Recommends
Columbus 'till I Die!
El Luchador wrestles with the tough issues surrounding the Crew. He is assisted in his efforts by El Chupacabra. Together they provide MLS and Crew fans with valuable information and analysis of both soccer and soccer wagering. We are completely independent and have no affiliation with the MLS, the Crew or any commercial sportsbook.
Online sports wagering is not explicitly illegal but the law is murky. No individual has ever been prosecuted for online sports wagering in the US, and the laws on the books generally focus on the financial side of the industry not the actual placing of bets. For more information go here. Nordecke Luchador believes responsible and moderate sports wagering by adults is a healthy and legitimate form of entertainment. Individuals with addictive personalities are encouraged to seek other forms of distraction and amusement.
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The Luchametric is a weighted statistical score that measures a team's overall production. The LM represents the total number of offensive events the team creates each game (for example, Shots and Shots on goal) minus the total number of offensive events per game the team allows to be created against it. Each event is weighted in terms of its relative "worth" in goals.
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El Chupa would merely add that the numbers don't lie, per se, they simply don't reflect the fact that COL will be without several key players. El Chupa would also add that in crunching the numbers, he discovered that without their starting keeper, COL is much more vulnerable. Pickens has a GAA average of 1.16, his backup Burpo has a GAA of 1.6. And COL stinks on the road. Do the math.
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