MLS Handicapping: Colorado Rapids to Win Over New England Revolution at -125. Do It.

By El Luchador
The Masked One’s featured MLS Wager of the Week is Colorado Rapids to win at home over New England Revolution. The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that COL are the better team with higher production over the season and per game. The patented 6-Point Qualitative Luchametric gives COL the advantage in 5 categories (Travel, History, Environment, Injuries and Recent Form) with the 6^th (Inspiration) a draw. On top of it all, COL are seriously due for a win having drawn their last three games, two of them on BS late penalty kicks and one last week’s 0-0 stinker. Take COL to win this one hands down. Do it.

MONEY LINE
COL -125 TIE +250 NE + 265

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage COL 1.89 NE .15 or .75 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage COL - COL traveled 1,200 miles round trip to KC Saturday but have been back home since Monday and were on a 2-game home stand before the KC trip. NE have traveled more than 2,100 miles in two legs flying to DAL last week before heading to COL for this match.

INSPIRATION Draw - Both teams have something to play for. This is COL’s final game of the season at Dick's Sporting Goods Park and they hope to maintain their 2-point margin in the wild card. NE are playing the second game in a two-game road swing, falling 1-0 to FC Dallas on Wednesday, though they still hold eighth place in the MLS overall table and the last spot in the MLS Cup Playoffs.

HISTORY Advantage COL - At COL (16 meetings): Rapids 11 wins (1 shootout), 30 goals ... Revolution 3 wins (0 shootout), 13 goals, Ties 2

ENVIRONMENT Advantage COL - Dick’s Sporting Goods Park is at roughly 5,100 ft above sea level. New England are flying in from spending the week at about 400 feet in Dallas and are acclimated to Gillette Stadium’s 84 feet.

INJURIES Advantage COL - COL - OUT: MF Colin Clark; MF Jacob Peterson; MF Jamie Smith; DOUBTFUL: GK Matt Pickens (R knee sprain); QUESTIONABLE: DF Cory Gibbs (R thigh strain) ... NE - OUT: DF Chris Albright; FW Edgarus Jankauskas; MF Steve Ralston; FW Taylor Twellman; QUESTIONABLE: DF Gabriel Badilla; MF Sainey Nyassi; PROBABLE: GK Brad Knighton

RECENT FORM Advantage COL - COL – WLTTT, NE – LLTWL

MLS Handicapping: San Jose at Colorado (Updated)

By El Chupa

Well, we blew it again. And lost money to boot. SJO obviously has COL's number and has gotten so deep in their heads that COL can't even manage a win at home. Beyond the obvious bad voodoo however, it's clear that COL has problems scoring, and that all it takes is a bad call here, a fluke hand-ball there, and you end up with a mere four goals from four PKs across two games and a mere two points earned per team. Even if COL makes the playoffs, we don't expect them to figure much in the road to the championship. And that's not sour grapes, we bear no ill-will to the Rapids. We just don't see how they'll get very far in the MLS's second season when they have to grind out wins even when they're home. Defense keeps you in games, but eventually you have to start scoring more goals then your opponents.

This is coming a bit late in the day and will be short and sweet. Take Colorado at -118 if you don't mind risking a bit for what we think is a high percentage wager (El Chupa hopes to make 50% tonight). Colorado is tough as hell at home. They don't allow goals, they don't even allow shots on goal, a category in which they lead the league with a shockingly low 81, WELL below the league average. The difference in the Luchametric is high and Colorado needs 3 pts to stay in the playoff picture. We thus think it's high time for COL to break through against San Jose and that they will. Pickens and Clark are probably still out, but Mastroeni will be back. The loss of Pickens is most troubling, but again, Burpo shouldn't face many shots, especially at home. San Jose is going from sea-level to a mile high, and their "resurgence" has been at home, not on the road. They absolutely stink on the road. Their recent form is not as good as you might think either. If you're worried about Pickens being out, take the draw.

Our prediction: SJO 1 Col 2.

San Jose Over Colorado. Yeah, You Heard That Right.

By El Luchador

Statistics are fine, but they lie. This Friday’s San Jose v Colorado matchup is an example. With the Luchametric showing COL with season production at +55 and SJ at -52, one would think the safe money would be on COL. Wrong.

El Luchador will be betting $100 on San Jose using one of his many favored off-shore gambling sites. The line is currently set at +145. The masked one isn’t saying you should make this bet too. He’s just saying.

Why, you ask? Why should you forgo the cold comfort of El Chupa's precious numbers?

Colorado will be without play-making midfielders Pablo Mastroeni (Disciplinary Committee decision) and Colin Clark (L ACL tear) as well as goalkeeper Matt Pickens (R knee sprain).

San Jose is almost 100 percent, with the important exception of forward Darren Huckerby (R hip surgery). But their recent form has been decent even without the tattooed white trash British scorer. San Jose have not lost at home since a hard-fought defeat to Toronto FC on July 11, with the lone exception of a 3-0 drubbing Aug. 8 at the hands of our beloved Crew. Who doesn’t lose to the Crew?

Since the All-Star break, the Earthquakes have destroyed the previously impressive Seattle 4-0, beat KC 1-0, barely lost to New England on the road 2-1, and last week made visiting amateur Bay-area MLS-wannabe Copa Alianza All-Stars look like school girls with a 6-0 bitch slapping.

San Jose are coming in fresh at home having not played an MLS match in two weeks. And they sit dead last in the West with no realistic possibility of making the playoffs. They have nothing to lose and will fight like the Taliban.

Meanwhile, COL have been on the road for almost two weeks and have lost 3 of their last 6 matches, including a 3-2 loss Saturday to sucky Toronto. Look for the Earthquakes to beat the Rockies. Do it.

MLS Power Rankings Updated: Crew Rule - Rapids Rising

By El Chupa
The MLS Luchametric Power Rankings have been fully updated through last weekend's games. The Crew and LA remain one and two respectively from last week. Colorado, however, has inched their way into the top four replacing CHI in the third spot with Houston rounding out the top five. The top five teams have a respectable Z-score of .69 of a standard deviation or above, which creates some significant separation between them and the rest of the league. Dallas, SJO and NY remain at the bottom. Relegation anyone?

For the Punters: MLS Fixtures (Updated)

By El Chupa
Three games this weekend in the MLS and a whole slew of World Cup Qualifiers. Let's take the MLS first.

KC at NE and TOR at COL. We think the best bet this weekend is a two game parlay of NE and COL to win. COL has quite possibly the stingiest defense. Although they've allowed 27 Goals Against, which puts them only two below the league average of 29 (HOU leads the league with only 22 GA), they've allowed a mere 74 Shots On Goal Against, well below the league average of 111 and currently the fewest SOGA in the league. And they are extra tough at home.
Meanwhile, NE has a +2 recent form (Wins minus Losses in the last four games) and is hosting a weak KC team. (What can we say? Home field advantage in the MLS doesn't mean dookie. And as we've already quantified, the parity in this league is unparalled. At least we got the COL game right).

This two game parlay is paying 2-1 currently.

The DC at DAL game is too close and should be avoided. The books are offering + odds on either team. If you think DC is burnt from the US Open Cup loss on Weds, than throw the dice and go with Dallas to win (We said it was close, and it was a draw. We are geniuses).

Moffat to Return for Crew Easter Resurrection Revival Meeting

If there is anything good to say about the Crew’s abysmal 2009 start, it is the fact that teams are already overlooking Columbus on the schedule, and this can give the Crew the stealth factor that contributed to their 2008 success, when opponents did not always get fully loaded for the team that spent most of 2007 in the basement.

Case in point: Colorado Rapids Coach Gary Smith was asked on Fox Football Fone-In on Monday who he had his eye on as the major competition this season.

Here was his answer: “I think Chivas has done a great job given their injury list … Seattle, is a new franchise and has a multitude of bodies that Sigi’s trying to build and that he’s done a wonderful job with. I don’t think you can ever write off Houston or New England. You know, they’ve shown the way they perform. The consistency that they have will always give them an opportunity and put them in a position to challenge for an MLS Cup.”

Who is missing from this picture?

Smith’s Rapids face the Crew at Columbus this Saturday, and yet the 2008 MLS Cup Champions appear to be the last thing on the Colorado skipper’s mind.

You can hardly blame him.

The Crew are off to their worst start in 5 years, with no victories in 4 games, and they are coming off a downright embarrassing 0-2 western road trip where they lost two games in 4 days and looked like they might struggle against teams from Women’s Professional Soccer.

Crew Keeper Will Hesmer has given up 8 goals in 4 games for a 2 goals-against average, the worst in MLS. In 2008 Hesmer gave up a total of 36 goals. In 2009, he is on pace to give up 60.

On the offensive side, the Crew’s 4 goals in 4 games puts them on pace to score 30 goals in the season. Last year they tallied 50.

Meanwhile, the Rapids are off to a 2-1 start and are on a good run, having beaten the LA Galaxy twice in a week, most recently a 4-2 victory on penalty kicks where they came from behind with a man down from a red card in US Open Cup play.

Rapids forwards Conor Casey and Omar Cummings are on fire with 5 goals between them in just 3 games. Casey is second and Cummings is fourth in the league in goals scored.

To make matters worse for Columbus, their injury and ineligibility problems continue with Hejduk (hamstring) likely out for Saturday along with Midfielder Robbie Rogers (left hamstring) and defender Chad Marshall, who might have another concussion and is actually openly discussing the possibility that it could be career-ending.

And big Andy Iro is unavailable because of the questionable red card he got against Chivas on Sunday.

The good news for the Crew is that central midfielder Adam Moffat is ready to play and will make his return on Saturday. This will move Ekpo to the wing where he belongs and hopefully give Columbus a boost. Lord knows they need it.

The Rapids lead the all-time series versus the Crew with 14 victories, 8 losses and 7 ties. The Crew won both encounters last year, 2-1 at home on June 28 (video) and 2-0 July 27 (video).

Columbus Projected Lineup
William Hesmer
Jed Zayner
Chad Marshall
Danny O'Rourke
Gino Padula
Eddie Gaven
Brian Carroll
Emmanuel Ekpo
Robbie Rogers
G. Barros Schelotto
Alejandro Moreno


Colorado Projected Lineup
Preston Burpo
Kosuke Kimura
Ugo Ihemelu
Cory Gibbs
Jordn Harvey
Nick LaBrocca
Pablo Mastroeni
Mehdi Ballouchy
Colin Clark
Conor Casey
Omar Cummings

0-2-2 After Back-to-Back Losses Out West

The Crew’s 2-1 loss to Chivas USA at the Home Depot Center in Los Angeles Sunday night (Video) has left them at 0-2-2, their worst start since 2004.

Here’s some good news: That year, the Crew went on to rebound and win the Supporter’s Shield for the best overall season record in MLS. After losing three straight to start the season that year, the Crew started an 8-game unbeaten streak with a 1-1 tie to Dallas at home on May 1.

Here’s hoping Saturday’s match with Colorado is the start of something like that for the Crew.

It’s not looking good. Schelotto was largely listless, Moreno was absent, Ekpo was inconsistent, Gaven got great chances that he couldn’t finish, and while Iro had good moments (like the goal), his lumbering indecision in the backfield left us vulnerable. Both the goals against us were soft.

Frankie, we need you back.