Wednesday, September 23, 2009

MLS Handicapping: San Jose at Colorado (Updated)

By El Chupa

Well, we blew it again. And lost money to boot. SJO obviously has COL's number and has gotten so deep in their heads that COL can't even manage a win at home. Beyond the obvious bad voodoo however, it's clear that COL has problems scoring, and that all it takes is a bad call here, a fluke hand-ball there, and you end up with a mere four goals from four PKs across two games and a mere two points earned per team. Even if COL makes the playoffs, we don't expect them to figure much in the road to the championship. And that's not sour grapes, we bear no ill-will to the Rapids. We just don't see how they'll get very far in the MLS's second season when they have to grind out wins even when they're home. Defense keeps you in games, but eventually you have to start scoring more goals then your opponents.

This is coming a bit late in the day and will be short and sweet. Take Colorado at -118 if you don't mind risking a bit for what we think is a high percentage wager (El Chupa hopes to make 50% tonight). Colorado is tough as hell at home. They don't allow goals, they don't even allow shots on goal, a category in which they lead the league with a shockingly low 81, WELL below the league average. The difference in the Luchametric is high and Colorado needs 3 pts to stay in the playoff picture. We thus think it's high time for COL to break through against San Jose and that they will. Pickens and Clark are probably still out, but Mastroeni will be back. The loss of Pickens is most troubling, but again, Burpo shouldn't face many shots, especially at home. San Jose is going from sea-level to a mile high, and their "resurgence" has been at home, not on the road. They absolutely stink on the road. Their recent form is not as good as you might think either. If you're worried about Pickens being out, take the draw.

Our prediction: SJO 1 Col 2.

No comments: