Tuesday, September 22, 2009

EPL Statistics: Chelsea's Dominance by the Numbers

By El Chupa
We're going to try and dedicate the rest of the week to providing as much insight into the Crew's epic match with LA as possible, including suggested cheers for the Nordecke Hoards to unleash on Beckham and his fellow swine from the Galaxy. But today, were offering a few insights on Chelsea's dominance of the EPL.

First, they lead the league in PTS obviously, but also in Wins, and Fewest Goals Allowed (tie with Man City at a mere 3). They also have allowed the fewest Goals Against per Game (.5), and lead the league in Goal Differential at 12. They have put 8.33 Shots on Goal per game, which is well over the league average of 5.17 and behind only Man U and Liverpool (8.5 and 9.5 respectively).

Finally, they've allowed only 17 Corners Against (the league average is 32.8) and perhaps most telling of all, they've allowed only 9 Shots on Goal Against all year. The league average is 29.10. That's right, people, over six full games, or 540+ minutes of play, six teams have managed to create a mere nine SOGs. That means each team really only managed to produce one serious chance at a goal in each game. How the F do you beat a team when you can't manage more than one or two decent chances while they are literally ASSAULTING your goal? Overall Chelsea has allowed only 33 Shots Against all season. Compare this to the league average of 78.65 and you realize just how dominant are their midfield and back four. Another useful point of comparison is second-place Man U, who have allowed twice as many Shots overall at 66.

My friends, it's not simply that Chelsea can score, the numbers suggest that their midfield and defense are the best in the league, hands down. If you give up a goal to Chelsea, you are behind the eight-ball. Yes, it's early, and yes, Chelsea has not faced all the top teams yet. But over one month of play and six games, they've been incredibly consistent and incredibly difficult to beat. Even if Man U is still a contender, they're no longer the team to beat in the EPL. The rest of Europe better look out when it comes to Champions League play.

Finally, Chelsea leads the rest of the league in the vaunted Luchametric by 2.24 STDEVs in overall production, and 2.13 STDEVs in Pro/GM. Man U is second with 1.67 and 1.57 respectively. This puts Chelsea one-half or .5 STDEVs ahead of Man U, which is rather close but still a significant difference, and a minimum of one full STDEV over their next-closest rivals: Man City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal. This means they have played a serious cut above not just the rest of the league, but the very best teams in the league. Word.

No comments: