Thursday, September 17, 2009

EPL Handicapping: Sunderland over Burnley

By El Chupa

We LOVE Burnley. We fell in love with them the night we watched them beat Man U (F Man U) in their first home game since being promoted to the Premier League at the end of last season. However, we think taking either Sunderland or the under may prove to be the highest percentage wager of the weekend in the EPL.

Sunderland is +145 and Burnley is +155. If you look at any current EPL table, Sunderland is in 6th place with 9 points and Burnley is in 12th with 6. BUT! The Luchametric has Sunderland at 2.46 Pro/Gm with a Z-score of -.03 or nearly at the league average. Meanwhile, Burnley is at a Pro/GM of -3.29 or nearly -1.46 standard deviations below the league average. This is nearly one and one-half standard deviations BELOW Sunderland. We think this is significant. We predict either a Sunderland win or an under draw.

Burnley is 2-0 at home giving up only 2 GA total. Sunderland averages 1.6 G/GM, which is above the league average of 1.37. But Burnley averages only .4 G/GM. As such, with Sunderland on the road where they've only scored 1 goal in two games, we think the under is virtually a sure thing. Both home wins for Burnley were 1-0. $15 currently earns you $10 on the under while $10 on Sunderland to win earns you $14.50. Roll the dice and bet Sunderland to win or take the under and earn 67% on what we consider a very safe, high-percentage wager. This match could also make one-half of a promising two-match parlay as well. Do it.

No comments: