Chelsea Blows It; Man U Back in Contention; Spurs Surge; Man City Must Run the Table

By MJD

We're still in shock over both Man U's victory at Eastlands and Spurs' win at home over the Blues.  Certainly both teams were capable of winning, and Spurs' win certainly was well-deserved.  The shock comes from having to stare another Man U league title in the face when we had been hoping all season that Chelsea would finally unseat Ferguson at the top of the table.  The facts are that Chelsea blew it, and few prognosticators thought it would happen.  And now Man U has to face Spurs at home while Chelsea must go to Anfield and earn three points against Liverpool.  Both teams' other games should earn them 6 points each, so today's events really have shaken things up.  The drama in the weeks ahead connecting Chelsea's fate to Man U's to Spurs' to City's gives fans of the EPL much to savor in the last four weeks of the season.

Spurs' destiny is now in their own hands, and should they earn points at Man U and Man City, they will surge right on into a European tour--and deservedly so.  Four points out of these two matches combined with wins against Bolton and Burnley would get them to 74.  Man City has games left with Arsenal, Spurs, and Villa before finishing at home against West Ham.  We earlier argued that City would drop points to Man U and Arsenal but beat Birmingham and then run the table to finish out the season.  They're still in a position to do as we predicted.  The problem is that Spurs have been much better than predicted, picking up six points when they weren't expected by anyone to do so.   This means that the game at home against Spurs is now an absolute must win for City, as they need 12 PTS out of their remaining four matches including a win at Arsenal.  12 Pts would get them to 74 leaving Spurs at 73 even if the latter win their other three matches.  Any slip whatsoever by City in the coming weeks and 4th place will elude them--unless Spurs' luck runs out and they come crashing back to earth.  Spurs too must win at City to keep the dream of the Champions League alive, and losing at Man U would certainly put them in a difficult position.  Here's hoping fans in the states get to see as much of the epic battle for fourth place as possible in the coming weeks.

EPL Handicapping: Liverpool at Chelsea - Thunder of the Gods

By El Chupacabra
Here's our take on the the premier fixture in the Premier League this weekend.

Liverpool at Chelsea
The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that these two teams are virtually the same. A mere .04 of a Standard Deviation separates them, which is like saying that the difference is within the margin of error--well within it. The other numbers tell us that Benitez is a dickhead. It's hard to be objective on this one after what the Scouser fans did to our beloved World Soccer Daily.

The hard numbers tell us that Liverpool scores more goals but also gives up more. Chelsea scores fewer goals but gives up fewer goals, fewer shots, basically fewer everything when it comes to opportunities created against. These teams don't like each other, and when they meet it has all the markings of a classic "derby," and Benitez is a dickhead. Wait, I mean to say that both teams are highly motivated. They have a long history of beating each other in key games and key competitions, and both will be up for the match. Chelsea was beaten last year at home by the Scousers, and they lost last week at Wigan. Liverpool lost on Tuesday at Fiorentina and looked like hell on defense. Plus, every game between top teams is huge as dropping three points to your closest competitors means you have to make them up at some point, and you've just dropped points to a team whose rate of earning PTS/GM is the same as yours making it difficult to overtake them, especially as the season progresses because you have fewer games left by which to acquire points.

Finally, Chelsea's schedule has not been very tough, and they haven't been winning by large margins. This will be the first time they've played a world class offensive side that is clearly hitting it on all cylinders. It comes down to whether Chelsea can stifle Liverpool's attack AND take advantage of the opportunities Liverpool will give up. We think Liverpool's committment to attack explains why they've given up more goals than the Blues, but we also think that their defense is suspect. But that doesn't mean that Chelsea will have many scoring chances, as they certainly haven't lit it up against much lesser teams.

Our prediction: Draw 1-1

MONEY LINE Liverpool +215 TIE +210 Chelsea Even

LUCHAMETRIC Draw. Diff is .04 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Chelsea: Both teams traveled to Europe midweek for UEFA matches. But Liverpool are traveling down to London. Slight nod to Chelsea here.

INSPIRATION Draw. Chelsea are looking to avenge last year's loss at home to the Scousers. Plus, they lost last week to Wigan and need to reassert their early season form in the EPL. Benitez is a dickhead. Both teams dislike each other, and the Scousers would like nothing better than to stick it to one of their biggest rivals on their home turf. Finally, the Scousers were humiliated on Tuesday, Benitez ripped them a new one, and they'll be looking to convince him and their fans that they're better than they looked on Tuesday.

INJURIES Advantage Liverpool: Chelsea is without Cech, and Ballack is doubtful. But, the Chelsea website is reporting he will be back. Liverpool will be without only Dosenna and Aquilani.

HISTORY Advantage Liverpool: All time results in all competitions: Liverpool 69 Draw 33 Chelsea 54.

RECENT FORM Advantage Liverpool: Scousers WLWWWW Chelsea WWWWWL

EPL Statistics: Chelsea's Dominance by the Numbers

By El Chupa
We're going to try and dedicate the rest of the week to providing as much insight into the Crew's epic match with LA as possible, including suggested cheers for the Nordecke Hoards to unleash on Beckham and his fellow swine from the Galaxy. But today, were offering a few insights on Chelsea's dominance of the EPL.

First, they lead the league in PTS obviously, but also in Wins, and Fewest Goals Allowed (tie with Man City at a mere 3). They also have allowed the fewest Goals Against per Game (.5), and lead the league in Goal Differential at 12. They have put 8.33 Shots on Goal per game, which is well over the league average of 5.17 and behind only Man U and Liverpool (8.5 and 9.5 respectively).

Finally, they've allowed only 17 Corners Against (the league average is 32.8) and perhaps most telling of all, they've allowed only 9 Shots on Goal Against all year. The league average is 29.10. That's right, people, over six full games, or 540+ minutes of play, six teams have managed to create a mere nine SOGs. That means each team really only managed to produce one serious chance at a goal in each game. How the F do you beat a team when you can't manage more than one or two decent chances while they are literally ASSAULTING your goal? Overall Chelsea has allowed only 33 Shots Against all season. Compare this to the league average of 78.65 and you realize just how dominant are their midfield and back four. Another useful point of comparison is second-place Man U, who have allowed twice as many Shots overall at 66.

My friends, it's not simply that Chelsea can score, the numbers suggest that their midfield and defense are the best in the league, hands down. If you give up a goal to Chelsea, you are behind the eight-ball. Yes, it's early, and yes, Chelsea has not faced all the top teams yet. But over one month of play and six games, they've been incredibly consistent and incredibly difficult to beat. Even if Man U is still a contender, they're no longer the team to beat in the EPL. The rest of Europe better look out when it comes to Champions League play.

Finally, Chelsea leads the rest of the league in the vaunted Luchametric by 2.24 STDEVs in overall production, and 2.13 STDEVs in Pro/GM. Man U is second with 1.67 and 1.57 respectively. This puts Chelsea one-half or .5 STDEVs ahead of Man U, which is rather close but still a significant difference, and a minimum of one full STDEV over their next-closest rivals: Man City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal. This means they have played a serious cut above not just the rest of the league, but the very best teams in the league. Word.

Champions League Tips: Chelsea, Real Madrid, Man U,

By El Chupa

All three of these clubs (Man U, Chelsea, and Real Madrid) could win the Champions League and all three are in very good form. Real Madrid will prove simply too much for Zurich. Ronaldo, punk that he is, wants very badly to bring glory to the club he's idolized since childhood. And Madrid spent millions of Euros in the summer to send Madrid back to the finals of possibly the most respected of all the European championships. Chelsea is at home against a respectable Porto club, but as we've pointed out, no team in England, and very few in Europe, are in Chelsea's league at the moment. Being without the suspended Drogba hurts but this is a deep, world class club. Finally, as much as we loathe Man U, we think this is a mismatch as well, even at Beskitas. We've gone with a three game parley.

EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea Maintains Dominance

By El Chupa
The metric for the EPL has been tweaked and updated. As with the MLS we've added a metric for "Quality SOGs." Chelsea sits atop the EPL by nearly one full standard deviation above their nearest rival: Man U. Man U, Spurs, and Man City are virtually deadlocked and round out the top four. Liverpool has maintained a very competitive rate of production, as has Arsenal, despite the latter's two losses in a row.

Chelsea has allowed only nine shots on goal against (SOGA) over five games, easily leading the rest of the league which has averaged 31 SOGA. They have also given up only 14 corners as compared to the league average of 28. Only Blackburn with 12 has given up fewer (the Blues are tied with Man U who also have only 14). If this keeps up, teams will find it very hard to create chances let alone score on the Blues. Did I mention that Chelsea has five wins in five games? I would not want to be Spurs who head to Stamford Bridge this weekend. Neither would I want to be FC Porto, who face Chelsea in UEFA Champions League Group play later today. Given the controversy over last year's loss to Barca in the semi-final of the Champions League, I'm sure the Blues will be motivated.

EPL Picks: Spurs over Man U

By El Chupa
Ok, El Chupa and El Luchador have done the Vulcan mind-meld with Dr Bumba, and have the following picks for our loyal reader(s).

Man U at Spurs: Take Spurs to win at +200. Man U is NOT the team they were with Ronaldo. Sir Alex Le Douche has not figured out how to bring this team together. They look unorganized when attacking. Spurs are off to a hot start and they are especially tough at White Hart Lane. Their defense is loosey goosey. But we still like Spurs here, at these odds, at home.

Parley: Liverpool and Chelsea to win: The return on this is rather dismal: around $13 for a $20 bet. But it's as close to a sure thing as you're going to get this weekend. El Chupa took LA in the MLS plus Liverpool and the Blues in a three game parley. Yee haw.

El Luchador's Sleeper of the Week: Wolves at +320 over Blackburn at Blackburn. Do it. Do it.

The rest of the games are all rather too close for comfort. If you can, catch Arsenal at Man City. Holy shit. That's some serious football people. El Luchador likes the draw on this one. El Chupa and Dr Bumba say stay the hell away but watch and catch some beautiful football. Arshavin is out for this game but Fabregas is back. Man City is out to prove they belong in the top four. Aresnal wants three points after having one to three STOLEN at Old Trafford.

See also: www.goonersguide.com

EPL Luchametric Ratings Updated

By El Chupacabra

The EPL Luchametric Ratings have been updated in time for this weekend's game. Remember, they are based on scant data and it is very early in the marathon EPL season. El Chupa can tell you this, however: of the big four, Chelsea is playing extremely well, mind-blowingly so. They are swarming all over their opponents on the pitch and in the stats, out shooting them and gaining corners and other chances at a shocking rate. Of the top teams from last season, they are the only one who look like they haven't missed a beat. Remember, this is a team who were bounced out of the UEFA Champions League by Barca by a mere whisker, and most Chelsea fans think game two was stolen from them. El Chupa thinks Barca was and is the better team, but we feel Chelsea's pain.