Thursday, October 1, 2009

MLS Handicapping: Colorado Rapids to Win Over New England Revolution at -125. Do It.

By El Luchador
The Masked One’s featured MLS Wager of the Week is Colorado Rapids to win at home over New England Revolution. The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that COL are the better team with higher production over the season and per game. The patented 6-Point Qualitative Luchametric gives COL the advantage in 5 categories (Travel, History, Environment, Injuries and Recent Form) with the 6th (Inspiration) a draw. On top of it all, COL are seriously due for a win having drawn their last three games, two of them on BS late penalty kicks and one last week’s 0-0 stinker. Take COL to win this one hands down. Do it.

-125 TIE +250 NE + 265

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage COL 1.89 NE .15 or .75 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage COL - COL traveled 1,200 miles round trip to KC Saturday but have been back home since Monday and were on a 2-game home stand before the KC trip. NE have traveled more than 2,100 miles in two legs flying to DAL last week before heading to COL for this match.

INSPIRATION Draw - Both teams have something to play for. This is COL’s final game of the season at Dick's Sporting Goods Park and they hope to maintain their 2-point margin in the wild card. NE are playing the second game in a two-game road swing, falling 1-0 to FC Dallas on Wednesday, though they still hold eighth place in the MLS overall table and the last spot in the MLS Cup Playoffs.

HISTORY Advantage COL - At COL (16 meetings): Rapids 11 wins (1 shootout), 30 goals ... Revolution 3 wins (0 shootout), 13 goals, Ties 2

ENVIRONMENT Advantage COL - Dick’s Sporting Goods Park is at roughly 5,100 ft above sea level. New England are flying in from spending the week at about 400 feet in Dallas and are acclimated to Gillette Stadium’s 84 feet.

INJURIES Advantage COL - COL - OUT: MF Colin Clark; MF Jacob Peterson; MF Jamie Smith; DOUBTFUL: GK Matt Pickens (R knee sprain); QUESTIONABLE: DF Cory Gibbs (R thigh strain) ... NE - OUT: DF Chris Albright; FW Edgarus Jankauskas; MF Steve Ralston; FW Taylor Twellman; QUESTIONABLE: DF Gabriel Badilla; MF Sainey Nyassi; PROBABLE: GK Brad Knighton


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