Friday, October 2, 2009

EPL Handicapping: Wigan at Hull

By El Chupacabra

A lot of games this weekend in the EPL, including matches Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Here's our best pick for Saturday's fixtures.

Take Wigan to Win at Hull
The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that Wigan are the better side, with a higher production score that amounts to a difference in standard deviation of .75. This puts the two teams rather close, especially with Hull's home advantage. However, Wigan have an advantage in Shots, Shots on Goal, Goals Against, Shots on Goals Against, and Goal Differential, suggesting they'll get more opportunities to score. Hull is giving up 2.71 Goals per Game, which is close to the league average for TOTAL goals scored by each team per game. Of course, 6 of those goals were scored by Liverpool in a single match. Regardless, we don't expect Hull to threaten much, and Wigan scored 3 goals last week on Chelsea. Both teams will contest this one fiercely, as both could use three points -- Wigan to regain the form they showed last year and to prove that last week's defeat of Chelsea was no fluke, and Hull to keep from losing four in a row, which would have them staring relegation in the face after only 8 games. Oh, and Phil "The Douche" Brown's job is on the line. This could mean the players play hard to save his job. . . or it COULD meand that they phone it in so he gets fired and upper management can get someone to replace him that the players actually like, respect and for whom they will perform better.

Wigan +150
TIE +210 Hull +150

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage Wigan: Wigan .16; Hull -3.06 or .75 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Draw: Both teams have had a week off, and Wigan are only traveling about 125 miles.

INSPIRATION Advantage Wigan: Both teams have something to play for, but Hull are downright dysfunctional. Wigan want to regain the form that last year had them threatening to place in the top 7. They also need to prove they can win away from home and that the wins against Villa and Chelsea were legit. Hull is staring relegation in the face and needs to turn things around toot sweet. But here's the difference: Hull's dressing room has never recovered from last year's mid year antics by Manager Phil Brown. And the Scotsman this week admitted that he does not have the complete confidence of his men, calling on some to exhibit more "bravery."

INJURIES Advantage Wigan: Wigan are fully fit; Hull have some minor injury problems.

HISTORY Advantage Wigan: All time results in all competitions: Wigan 7 Draw 6 Hull 4

RECENT FORM Advantage Wigan: Wigan LLLWLW (6 points out of 6) Hull LWDLLL (4 points out of 6)

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