Tuesday, October 6, 2009

MLS Handicapping: Dallas at San Jose

By El Luchador and El Chupacabra
Here's the Masked One’s look at the MLS midweek fixture featuring Dallas at San Jose. These two teams are extremely closely matched, and this one is probably only for our most compulsive brothers and sisters. SJ is in second-to-last place in the league table. But with some recent decent form they have crawled their way up to 28 PTS overall, a mere 5 pts behind DAL. The patented LUCHAMETRIC system places these two bottom feeders only .62 of a Standard Deviation apart, which is largely due to Dallas' considerable advantage in Total Goals Scored, 45 to SJ's 32. The numbers tell us that DAL create more shots but only slightly more Shots on Goal. However, in our measure of Quality Scoring Chances, Dallas have an advantage. Still, this one is very close. Both have a good recent form at +2 (Wins minus Losses last four games). El Luchador and El Chupa both recommend sitting this one out, but if you have to bet to earn back some of the kids' milk money that you lost last week betting on Colorado yet again, try taking the Earthquakes or better yet the tie.

-120 Draw +210 SJO +120

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage DAL: -.08 to -.70

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage SJO - DAL have not played since last Wednesday at home, but will travel nearly 1,500 miles for this match.

INSPIRATION Advantage DAL - SJO are playing for pride, DAL have three games with which to produce as many PTS as possible and thus overtake New England for the last playoff spot. With COL and SEA looming, this is a must win, and 3 points on the road at SJO coupled with a New England loss to the Crew (yeah baby!) would put DAL within three PTS of NE. Plus, SJ will be playing on three days rest after their 1-0 home victory over the Red Bulls.

HISTORY Draw - Since San Jose returned to the league last year, they have met Dallas three times, and every time the result was the same: Draw.

ENVIRONMENT Draw - Both teams play virtually at sea level in similar climes. Game time temp is expected to be a perfect 60 degrees. If there is a slight advantage it is for SJ, who have enjoyed decent, supportive home crowds and a 4 percent boost in attendance this year.

RECENT FORM Draw - Both teams are +2 (wins minus losses last four games)

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