Luchametric MLS Power Rankings Updated: Dallas you say?

Current Luchametric MLS Power Rankings

By MJD
Dallas sits atop our Power Rankings.  We've spent the last hour or so trying to figure out if there is a mistake somewhere.  There isn't.  Before you blow a gasket in disbelief, note that the LM is based on production per game.  And if you compare Dallas' PTS/GM to the Crew, RSL and LA, the four teams are much closer than might appear just from looking at the single table.  Plus you have to factor in that Dallas has the best recent form, which we're perhaps weighing too heavily.  We need more time to look at that possibility.

The R-Squared when we regress the LM to point production in the league currently stands at .76.  This means that our metric explains 76% of the differences among the teams in terms of point production.  That's pretty good, but not as good as the R-squared for 08 and 09 combined, which is .83.  And our R-squared for point production in the EPL is around .90.  So, we're still examining why the MLS metric is not as sharp as the one we developed for the EPL (both are virtually the same).

Further, we'd point out that Dallas has only lost 13% of its games this year.  This puts them second in the league behind LA at 11%, and makes them over twice as good as RSL (26%) and well below the league average of 38%.n  They currently lead the league in draws.  In short, they are very, very, very tough to beat. They have drawn or won 87% of the games they have played thus far.  Our metric treats draws and performance in draws as significant evidence of a team's power--what we call "production."  The American proclivity to ignore draws as nothing more than "kissing your sister," we think ignores what draws tell us about a team. As such, Dallas gets more credit for how well it plays in wins, losses AND draws, which probably accounts for their place in the standings.  If they can maintain their rate of production, they should start getting some clean wins.  But it could also be that they've peaked at mid-season, and by the end of the year will drop back down in our rankings.  We'll see.

MLS Handicapping: Dallas at San Jose

By El Luchador and El Chupacabra
Here's the Masked One’s look at the MLS midweek fixture featuring Dallas at San Jose. These two teams are extremely closely matched, and this one is probably only for our most compulsive brothers and sisters. SJ is in second-to-last place in the league table. But with some recent decent form they have crawled their way up to 28 PTS overall, a mere 5 pts behind DAL. The patented LUCHAMETRIC system places these two bottom feeders only .62 of a Standard Deviation apart, which is largely due to Dallas' considerable advantage in Total Goals Scored, 45 to SJ's 32. The numbers tell us that DAL create more shots but only slightly more Shots on Goal. However, in our measure of Quality Scoring Chances, Dallas have an advantage. Still, this one is very close. Both have a good recent form at +2 (Wins minus Losses last four games). El Luchador and El Chupa both recommend sitting this one out, but if you have to bet to earn back some of the kids' milk money that you lost last week betting on Colorado yet again, try taking the Earthquakes or better yet the tie.

MONEY LINE
DAL -120 Draw +210 SJO +120

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage DAL: -.08 to -.70

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage SJO - DAL have not played since last Wednesday at home, but will travel nearly 1,500 miles for this match.

INSPIRATION Advantage DAL - SJO are playing for pride, DAL have three games with which to produce as many PTS as possible and thus overtake New England for the last playoff spot. With COL and SEA looming, this is a must win, and 3 points on the road at SJO coupled with a New England loss to the Crew (yeah baby!) would put DAL within three PTS of NE. Plus, SJ will be playing on three days rest after their 1-0 home victory over the Red Bulls.

HISTORY Draw - Since San Jose returned to the league last year, they have met Dallas three times, and every time the result was the same: Draw.

ENVIRONMENT Draw - Both teams play virtually at sea level in similar climes. Game time temp is expected to be a perfect 60 degrees. If there is a slight advantage it is for SJ, who have enjoyed decent, supportive home crowds and a 4 percent boost in attendance this year.

RECENT FORM Draw - Both teams are +2 (wins minus losses last four games)

And Where You Go We'll Follow ...

The MLS home unbeaten streak continued Saturday with Columbus' impressive 2-0 victory over Red State swine Dallas.

Here the Queen of Nordecke leads the celebration. Columbus 'till I die O my brothers and sisters. 'till I freaking die.