Thursday, October 22, 2009

Chicago v Chivas Will Be Low Scoring Game

By El Luchador
A disciplined betting system generally sticks to wagers only on wins and only for the home team. But, if El Luchador stands for any general principle in this meaningless post-modern world of ours, it’s this immutable principle: Rules were made to be broken. One such rule is that the over/under is a sucker’s bet. True, usually. But right now, there is a strong case to be made for checking out the MLS fixtures this week and selecting some choice opportunities to bet the under. Do it.

The reason that this makes sense is because teams are adopting a conservative approach heading into the last round of games, and the evidence shows that this approach is resulting in significantly fewer goals scored.

How many fewer? In the 17 games so far in October the average goals per game has been 1.94. This is nearly ½ a goal less per game than just last month. In 33 games in September, the average was 2.85 goals per game. The total average over time is right around 2.6, which is why the over/under is always set at 2.5.

What’s more, of the 17 games this month, there has been more than 2 goals in only 3 games, and just last week we saw two scoreless draws, the first time this has happened in MLS since July.

So what are the specific opportunities to bet the under this week? One good bet emerges from the ether as El Luchador consults his oracle:

Chivas USA at Chicago tonight. Both these teams will be playing cautious soccer as they both still have a chance at the playoffs and don’t want to blow it,especially the Fire in their home finale. Chivas has the stingiest defense in MLS allowing just .96 GA/GM, well below the league average of 1.26. And CHI also are allow below the average in goals allowed per game at 1.17.

Shop around for the best buy on this one. El Luchador saw 1.7 quoted and found a deal at 1.9 money line odds. Do it.

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