EPL Handicapping: Wayne Rooney is Out, So Chelsea Will Win

Wayne Rooney's injury Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League has not yet moved the odds on Man U to win the EPL or this Saturday's Battle Royale at home with Chelsea, and this presents an opportunity for savvy punters.

At 2.70, Chelsea to win away at Manchester Saturday is a solid bet. Here's why the Luchametric says do it:

1.) Without Rooney, Man U Feeble. With 26 goals, Rooney has scored more than any player in the EPL, and he is Man U's main offensive threat. It's difficult to see how they have much juice without him.
2) Travel.  Man U flew 1,000 miles midweek for their disappointing 2-1 loss v Bayern Munchen Tuesday, whilst Chelsea have been training comfortably at home all week and have just a short jaunt down the road for Saturday's lunchtime match.
3) Momentum. While Man U lost on a heartbreaking last minute goal in that UEFA Champions League match in Munich, Chelsea are coming off their impressive 7-1 bitch slap of the previously respectable Aston Villa on Saturday.
4) Luchametric. There is little that separates these two on the Luchametric, but Chelsea have the edge. The Blues have a total Luchametric score of 8.2 versus Man U's 7.7. What's more, Chelsea have more offensive potential statistically than Ferguson's boys with 7.4 shots on goal per game versus Man U's 6.8, and Chelsea have a 20 to 18 advantage on total shots per game. Chelsea only allows 2.88 SOG Against per Game while Man allows 3.97.  What's more, last November at Stamford Bridge, Man U managed only 2 SOG the entire game, although they did put much pressure on the Blues, amassing 20 Shots and 7 corners.  Look for Chelsea again to bend but not break, especially with Rooney out.
5) God. He hates Manchester United for their conceit.

El Luchador's pick: Bet on Chelsea to win. Do it.

Luchametric EPL Power Rankings: Blues, Red Devils, Gunners

By El Chupa
No real movement this week in our EPL Power Rankings. Chelsea remains on top, but there's really very little difference among the top three.  Arsenal has won six matches in the EPL in a row and are scorching hot.  Plus, they have Fabregas back.  If anyone can beat Barca right now over in the Champions League it's the Gunners in absolute peak form.  It should be an exciting last couple of months in the EPL, with three teams competing for the title and four teams (five if you include Everton) competing for the fourth automatic spot in next year's UEFA Champions League: Spurs, Villa, Liverpool and Man City are neck-and-neck for the fourth spot.

Of the four teams competing for number four, Villa is our dark horse, and the team closest to our hearts.  They have given up the fewest GA of all four teams (25) and have the second-best GD at 17 (Man City is first at 16).  Villa are four points behind Spurs with tough away games at Chelsea and Man City left to play; so it certainly won't be easy. Their last two outings have been disappointing home draws to down table Wolves and Sunderland. On this basis, some are counting them out, which would be premature.

At the bottom end, Hull City is by far the poorest performer statistically, with a Luchametric score well over a one full standard deviation off the average and behind Fulham.

MLS Owners Gambling with League's Future: The Luchametric Mission Statement

The Nordecke Luchador and his associates do not condone illegal activity, but we believe that Major League Soccer will never enjoy the respect and attention of other world football leagues until there is more widespread betting interest in MLS. This will never happen until the monopolistic robber barons who control MLS abandon their childlike obsession with the anti-competitive, indeed, anti-American, single-entity system.

Ironically, it is the anti-competitive single-entity model that results in a hyper-competitive MLS. And it is this very hyper-competitiveness that is in fact holding the league and American soccer back.

More than $70 billion per year is wagered in online sports betting alone (not including street bets and legal sports books in places like Las Vegas). The number is projected to reach $100 billion by 2015. By far the most popular sport for gamblers worldwide is soccer, representing by some estimates one-third of the total wagers placed online.

You can place a bet today on who will win the Spanish La Liga title (which will not be decided until May), who will win the World Cup (which doesn't even start until June 11), first-half results for any first division match anywhere this weekend, or even whether Rafa Benitez will be fired from Liverpool (if the Scousers drop out of the top four, he will).  

By contrast, there are no lines available today on who will win the 2010 MLS Supporters Shield or the marketing gimmick that is the MLS Cup. Most bookies won't even take bets on the over/under for this week's opening games.

"Well that's just because the MLS sucks," you say.  OK, yeah, it's not the EPL. But like most things in life, the answer is not so simple.  It is also because the league is too competitive. "Too competitive" you say?  How can a league be too competitive? Competitive is good, right?" Not if you are a sports gambler. 

As Leandro Faria writes in Simple Soccer, "the smaller the number of big teams within a league, the more predictable it is."

In other words, the more competitive a league is, the more parity; the more parity, the harder it is to make predictions about the outcome of matches. Obviously, betting is nothing other than predicting the outcome of matches. Ergo, betters are interested in leagues that are more predictable, which is the same thing as less competitive -- but not necessarily less interesting or with inferior quality play, as we shall see below. Faria developed a "predictability index" based on actual team parity within leagues as measured by diversity of championships. The top four most predictable (least competitive) first division leagues in the world are in: 1) Scotland, 2) Netherlands, 3) Portugal and 4) Turkey.

The least predictable(most competitive) first division soccer leagues in the world, according to Faria? Brazil and U.S. Major League Soccer.  

The numbers clearly back this up. Last year the Columbus Crew won the Supporters Shield with 49 points. Of the other 14 teams in MLS, 12 were within 9 points of the Crew. Contrast that with the rest of the world. In EPL right now 56 points separates Manchester United from last place Portsmouth (nine of those are a result of the penalty Pompey suffered as a result of going bankrupt, but still). In the Italian Serie A,there are 39 points between No. 1 Inter and last place Livorno. In Der Bundesliga it's 38. In La Liga it's 52.

Now, predictable is a relative thing. Any team in any first division soccer league anywhere in the world can beat any other team in that league, as they say, on "any given Sunday" (or Saturday). So it's not as though less-competitive leagues are boring.The leagues that are actually more fun to watch are those that (perhaps counter-intuitively) are a little less competitive and thus have less parity.

(Two other factors also are at play here and are tragically missing from MLS: relegation and a single table, but  we will deal with these in a subsequent article).

The MLS league bosses are applying a simplistic, American (in the pejorative sense) paradigm and business model to the league. Their thinking is that by maintaining strict parity, there is more likely to be more widespread interest in more teams, deeper into the season, and that this will maximize revenue (which is all they care about). In fact, if they would allow for clubs to develop true competitive advantages with perhaps only a few teams each season vying for the top, there would be less parity, more excitement, more betting interest (not just in the U.S. but worldwide) and ultimately more revenue.

Whether you happen to be among those who love or hate (it's one or the other) the Yankees, Manchester United, Dallas Cowboys (of the '70s and '80s) or the Chicago Bulls, dynasties are a critical part of generating excitement in any sports league. Fans love narratives about underdogs and champions and the inevitable falls from grace that occur each season.  There will be no dynasties and no such story lines in the MLS until there is less parity--less vanilla and more funk, anger, despair and agony.

The Players Union's success in negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement is a major step forward in breaking down the owners' monopolistic scheme. Most fundamentally, it is a victory for the working man and for economic justice. But it also moves the MLS toward less parity, which in the long run does more than anything to support the long-term viability of the league by making it more interesting and more viable for the $70 billion sports betting market.

So, this brings us the mission statement part of this post. As El Luchador and El Chupa travel the world, from Cuba to Caracas, from LA to C-Bus, we are often asked, "Why do you do it? Why do you work so tirelessly, risking the wrath of Don Garber and his minions on the Dark Side of the Force?" Here's the answer:

Luchametric.com has two purposes. 1) Speaking truth to power, fighting the populist soccer revolution in the United States by taking it to the streets. 2) Supporting American soccer by supporting worldwide interest in placing wagers on U.S. soccer.

Do it.

Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings: Houston and Crew to Vie for Supporters Shield

By El Chupa

These past few weeks, while El Luchador has been in the streets waging guerrilla war on the establishment, and the Major League Soccer season has hung in the balance, El Chupacabra has been scouting the league, reviewing his notes from last season, and analyzing the off-season moves by each MLS club. Now that El Luchador and his brothers-in-arms in the Players Union have emerged victorious, and the 2010 MLS season is set to kick-off this week, we present the patented Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings.

If you happen to live in a jurisdiction where sports wagering is legal, these rankings are offered as a tool for handicapping the early MLS season, a period during which we will have little fresh data available to inform our predictions--and punts ("wagers" for our fellow American gaming enthusiasts). Pre-season rankings aren’t predictions--they’re observations. There are always “ifs” on each club, the season is long, and much can happen. We aren’t predicting the season will end in the following order, but this is how we think the league stacks up out of the gate. The Luchametric Institute for Advanced Sports Prediction Science is indemnified from liability for misuse of these powerful tools.  

Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings
1. Houston
2. Columbus
3. LA
4. Seattle
5.Chivas
6. Chicago
7. Colorado
8. D.C.
9. Real Salt Lake
10. Philly
11. Dallas
12. K.C.
13. New England
14. NYC
15. Toronto
16. San Jose

1. Houston – Houston finished second in the Luchametric Power Rankings last season, tying LA in the West with 48 points. Houston and LA were tied for second in the league overall behind the Crew. Houston are stingy on defense, giving up only .97 GA/GM (tied with Seattle for first in the league). Their 4.03 SOGA/GM puts them well below the league average of 4.8. Offseason they lost Holden and Clark but completed a trade for Kevin Harmse with LA. Harmse will add depth and toughness to the midfield. They also have just signed Jamaican International midfielder Lovel Palme. Even with the loss of two key players, we think with their defense and Ching and Landin leading the attack on a team with a Goal Differential last season of 10 (tied with the Crew for best in the league) and a unique home field advantage due to the scorching, humid Texas heat, Houston will make a run for both the MLS cup and the Supporters Shield.

2. Columbus – We’ve put the Crew second and feel strongly that last season’s slow start and weak finish were flukes. Their strong showing in their two CONCACAF Champions League games against Mexican side Tolouca was impressive. If Schelotto is healthy and can play all season; and if Lenhart and Rogers continue to mature, and if Sergio Herrera settles in and helps create up front, the Crew will again find themselves competing for both the MLS Cup and the Supporters Shield. We should know by the end of the first six games or so whether the real Crew is the team we saw in June and July—or September.

3. LA- The Galaxy finished third in the LM and tied for second in the league table with 48 points. Offseason they acquired Clint Mathis from MLS Cup champion Real Salt Lake and three players on loan from Brazilian club Sao Paolo FC. Donovan is back from a stellar performance for Everton in the EPL and although Beckham is out indefinitely, LA’s overall production last season was excellent in spite of a dearth of goals. As such, should the acquisitions improve the team’s goal production, LA will be very tough.  They will have to hang tough while Donovan is in South Africa for the World Cup, however.

4. Seattle – The Sounders finished last season at the top of the Luchametric Power Rankings and fourth in the league table with 47 points. They were very tough on defense, giving up the fewest SOGA per game in the league and the fewest GA/GM in the league (tied with Houston at .97 GA/GM). As such, they were very tough to beat, amassing 11 draws. Off-season they needed to improve their attack, and they did, signing Swiss International Blaise Nkufo. He has been with Dutch First Division Club FC Twente since 2003 and has been their leading scorer each year since he joined. He is 34 (another aging European/South American player comes to the MLS) but he has nine goals in the Eredivisie this season and has scored in all six of Switzerland’s World Cup Qualifiers suggesting he is in fine form. He will finish the Dutch season before heading to South Africa and then joining the Sounders. If the Sounders can hang tough until mid-July, he should make an immediate impact.  If they had Nkufo from the first game, they'd be our number one.

 5. Chivas – The City of Angel’s “other” team (let's face it, LA's Mexican team), Chivas was a bit of a puzzle last season. The club was tied with Dallas and New York for the fewest number of draws at 6, but the club still managed to produce 45 points. The club either won or lost virtually every time it went out, testing the theory that a team needs to settle for draws if it hopes to succeed over the long haul. The club scored only 34 Goals, below the league average of 38, but gave up only 31, much better than the league average of 38. Their ability to shut down opposing teams was their greatest strength last season and perhaps explains how they scratched out as many points as they did in spite of a less-than-impressive offense. Their two major offseason signings, Osael Romero (Vista Hermosa - El Salvador) and Michael Umana (Liberia Mia - Costa Rica) don’t suggest there will be more goals for Chivas this season.

6. Chicago – The Fire finished fourth in the LM Rankings and tied with Chivas for fifth in the league table with 45 points. They certainly will be a different team without Mexican legend Cuauhtemoc Blanco, however.  Chicago had a hard time scoring at home last season, totaling only 16 GF compared to 23 GF on the road. They’re attacking style resulted in above average SOG and CKs, but they had a hard time finding the net overall. Offseason they signed Krzysztof Król on loan from the Polish first division to fill the left back position; Collins John, a Liberian-born Dutch striker with experience in both the EPL and the Eredivisie, but a player who has failed to stick anywhere he has played and who has a reputation as a bit of a head-case; and Julio Martinez, a Salvadorian International winger on loan from Mexican club Leon. If Martinez and John can add to the Fire’s attack and the team finds a suitable replacement for Blanco, Chicago may be in a position to improve on last season’s showing.

7. Colorado – The Rapids had a respectable season, earning 40 PTS and basically establishing the median line in the MLS table. They scored 1.4 G/GM and gave up 1.27. They had a lot of draws (10) but only 2 wins on the road and 10 losses. Both Colorado and Real Salt Lake enjoy substantial home field advantages due to their respective altitudes. But the Rapids’ offseason moves are unimpressive and a bit of a puzzle.  Conor Casey and Omar Cummings can score, and Ballouchy has potential.  So look for Colorado still to be tough at home and playoff bound, but not a serious threat to unseat the top teams in the table.

8. D.C. – El Chupa has had it in for DC since he heckled John Harkes at the very first Crew game back in the ‘Shoe. DC’s success has only made a bad relationship worse, which is one way of saying that DC still evokes fear in El Chupa. However, DC stunk last season. And when you watched them, you saw a team that couldn’t play as a unit and which was constantly bickering on the field. The offseason moves don’t indicate they’ve solved the puzzle. They essentially jettisoned most of last year’s team and other than Cristian Castillo, the offseason signings are uninspiring.

9. RSL – RSL played very well in the postseason. They earned 40 PTS in the regular season which was average. Kudos to the team for making a very good run when it mattered most. But we think that was a fluke and the loss of Mathis will hurt them.  The team made few moves in the offseason and looks like they are building for the future. We expect them to be average once again.  If they don't start winning on the road and away from the high elevation of Rio Tinto, they won't get the chance this year to peak at just the right moment.  And they won't take anybody by surprise and every team will be gunning for them.  Finally, white guys with dreads are like mimes: you see the damnedest things when you ain't got your shotgun. . . .

10. Philly – That’s right. Expansion Philly at No. 10. Why? They did well in the expansion draft. They have a brand new stadium. They will have big crowds all season, and they have a good chance to score goals with Le Toux, Moreno and prospective phenom Mwanga looking to put it in the back of the net.  Given the mediocrity of the teams in the bottom half of the league, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Philly make a run into the post-season. (Look what Seattle did in their first year). Caution has us putting them below the top eight, however.

11. Dallas – Dallas earned 39 PTS last season, one PT below the league average of 40. There are no indications that FCD has made the changes they needed to in order to improve on last year’s mediocrity.  They made few offseason acquisitions and are banking on the core team coming together and improving on last season.  Again, 39 PTS is not that far off the top of the league, and Dallas' strategy could pay off.
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12. K.C. – KC signed some journeyman European players in the off-season but nothing to shout about. They amassed only 33 points last year, and we don’t see them doing much better this season.  Their temporary stadium is such an absolute abomination we refuse to watch any games broadcast from it.  Yeah, there's not much they can do about it.  But it's probably best just to avert thine eyes until things improve in KCK.

13. New England – The Revolution earned 42 PTS last season but were 11th in the LM rankings. Their off-season moves were principally spent signing young players in the Superdraft and we don’t see them doing much better this season than last.  42 PTS is, again, only 7 off the top of the league.  But still. . .

14. NYC – The Red Bulls are going to be better this season for two reasons: First: they can’t really be worse than they were last season; second: their new stadium will give them a bit of a bump at home. Juan Pablo Angel can score, but they need help in the midfield and at the back to stay in matches and produce chances.  There are a lot of ifs on this team.  They have a new and experienced coach in Hans Backe. Regardless, we see them remaining in the bottom half of the league table.

15. Toronto – 39 PTS last season and only 33 GF (league average: 38) and no significant offseason moves adds up to another postseason watching hockey.  Gerba and deRosario can score, but there are too many holes in the rest of the team.  They gave up 1.53 GA/GM last year and amassed 10 wins but suffered 11 losses.  Consistency will be the key, but we don't see them improving much.  Plus, their fans are drunken, loutish, mouth-breathers.

16. San Jose – Only one team was worse than San Jose last season (Red Bulls) and there are no signs that San Jose will be any better.  Sanchez brings experience and speed to the midfield and Alvarez could certainly mature.  Ryan Johnson is a great striker but the team as a whole needs to come together to give Ryan good service and to get any better than last season.  Unfortunately, they have a lot of tough teams ahead of them in the standings and on the schedule.

Arsenal and Chelsea Outpace the Pack in Updated Power Rankings

By El Chupacabra
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Monday's match at Anfield. Arsenal is back on top followed, again extremely closely, by Chelsea. Man U and Man City round out the top four but are significantly back of the top two.

Notice that a mere .16th of a StandDev separates the Gunners from the Blues. Chelsea has more points and more wins, but Arsenal has more goals (as always, you can look at the comprehensive data here). The Goal Differential of both teams is nearly identical: 22 for Arsenal; 21 for Chelsea. Arsenal has played one game less than Chelsea, and this accounts for the difference in wins to some extent.

Before you Blues fans blow a gasket, consider that the difference between the two teams is really negligible, at least statistically, but it comes down to this: Arsenal is a better offensive club, Chelsea the better defensive club. And Chelsea is probably more balanced overall.
The Luchametric weighs a number of different variables, and it could be that we need to look at the defensive side of the model. We have a measure for Quality Scoring Chances, for example, and in this measure Arsenal is clearly superior. But we're still looking at comprenhesive statistical measures of a team's defense.

We can say this, however: A full 42 % of the Gunners' Shots on Goal become goals, compared to 30% for Chelsea. That's a 25% difference. Also, 32% of Arsenal's SOG Against become Goals Against, compared to 25% for Chelsea (the league average is 25%; the league leaders are Villa with an impressively low 18%). Arsenal allows 1.27 GA per game, while Chelsea allows a mere .67 GA per game. And Chelsea allows only 2.67 SOGA per game, while Arsenal allows 4.0 SOGA. That's fairly significant. Chelsea is unbelievably stingy. You may have noticed on Sunday if you caught the game against Man U that Chelsea had the usual four man back line, but then frequently had another two men behind that. They were in essence playing a sort of 2-4-3-1 or you could just call it a 5-4-1. This shows both their respect for Man U and the genius of Ancelotti.

At this point, given the history of the league and of the big four, its understandable why so much attention still gets paid to Liverpool, who really are in trouble at this point, and that so many people continue to doubt Wenger's confidence that his club is playing for the title. But the evidence is clear: this year, barring injuries (Bendtner), Chelsea and Arsenal are the cream of the league. We look forward to the November 29 match at Emirates against Chelsea. This will be the true test of the two teams and should be some outstanding football. The league's best attacking club against the league's most balanced and most stingy club. At Stamford bridge, we'd take Chelsea, but at Emirates, Arsenal will give the Blues all they can handle.

EPL Handicapping: Gunners over Spurs

By El Chupacabra
Gunners over Spurs (8:30 EDT on ESPN2). Do it. Here's why.

The odds aren't great, but we think talk of Spurs going into Emirates and earning the draw, let alone the win, is mistaken. Here's the key: Spurs' defense is far weaker. They allow far more Shots, Shots on Goal, and Corners Against than do the Gunners. Yes, the Spurs score goals, but they've scored far fewer than Wenger's XI. And in our measure of Quality Chances Created, the Gunners are far superior. For example, Arsenal scores a goal 40% of the time when they create a SOG compared to the Spurs' 31% (the league average is 28%). And the Gunners lead Spurs in Goals per game, 3.22 to 2.10. They've both allowed the same number of Goals Against per Game, which may speak to the Gunners' goalkeeping woes. Regardless, the rest of the numbers reveal how loose Spurs is at the back. Overall, we consider Arsenal to be a better side by far and the cream of the EPL at this moment (along with Chelsea). We're thinking Gunners 3 Spurs 1.

OUR PREDICTION: Arsenal to Win.

MONEY LINE: Arsenal -180 Spurs +500 Draw +275

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Arsenal - The Gunners have an advantage of 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicating a significant competitive difference between any two teams. Further, in the raw metric measuring production per game Arsenal are nearly twice as good as Spurs. And our measure of Quality Scoring Chances has them nearly three StandDevs over Tottenham. Look for Arsenal to light Spurs up at home on Saturday.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Both teams played at home midweek in the Carling Cup. And this is a North London Derby, so both teams will be rested and won't have to travel. But Arsenal is at home and will still have a slight-to-significant advantage.

MOTIVATION Draw: This is a Derby and both teams will be up for the game. Spurs want to prove they are a top four team. But Keane has run his mouth off, and I suspect the home fans at Emirates will let him know it, the twit.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Arsenal. The Gunners have earned thirteen points in their last six matches, Spurs a mere 7. And Arsenal just beat Liverpool. Keane is going to eat his words.

INJURIES: Advantage: Spurs - Arsenal just got their starting keeper back--and just lost him for three more weeks. Almunia has been in Wenger's dog house but might get the chance to regain his manager's confidence on Saturday, given that Mannone made a rather egregious error against West Ham last Sunday, leading to a goal that started the Hammers' comeback, which resulted in Arsenal blowing a two-goal lead and letting a sure three points slip away.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Gunners Still on Top

By El Chupacabra
The EPL Power Rankings have been updated in time for this weekend's fixtures. As always, you can access the data here. Arsenal is still on top followed by Chelsea, Man U and Man City. The top two teams are within .5 Standard Deviations of each other, indicating relative competitive equality. The Gunners have created some significant daylight between themselves and Man City, Liverpool and Spurs, indicating they are considerably better than the latter three teams.

Yeah, yeah, our rankings are different than the actual standings--that's the point. Our metric takes far more variables into consideration than do the standings, which only consider and weight wins and draws. Our rankings are thus more accurate, in our humble opinion.

Notice too that our bottom three are different from the official standings as well. Don't count West Ham out just yet people. Even the talking heads on Super Sunday think they are a better club than they've shown thus far, as the draw against Arsenal at home indicates. One final observation worth noting, we've got Stoke rather far down our table. Will look at it more closely and report back in the next few days. Full disclosure: El Chupa roots for the Gunners. Boo YAH!

MLS Power Rankings: Final Season Standings

By El Chupacabra
The mighty have fallen. The Crew limped home this season, losing three of their last four games. As a result, they've plummeted in the Luchametric ratings to fifth overall behind Seattle, Houston, LA and Chicago.

Their LM score puts them about .5 of a Standard Deviation behind League Leaders Seattle. As we've indicated throughout the year, .5 or less in the Z score indicates relative competitive equality.

Still, the Crew earned the most points this year in the league, and our season-ending tally has them below four other teams. How is this possible?

For starters, remember that the Luchametric is designed to be more precise than the league standings. As such, it is going to magnify certain differences that will get lost when you simply assign three points for a win, one for a draw, zero for a loss. In our view, the LM is more discriminating, hence the differences between it and the league standings.

Also, do not underestimate how much the last four games hurt the Crew's numbers. Their overall production fell off dramatically over the last month or so, allowing teams who surged at the end of the season and finished strong to overtake them. And again, the difference between the Crew and SEA is relatively small comparatively. And even in the official standings, only a few points separate the top teams in the league.

However, since we now have another full season of data, we'll be able to look very closely at the metric and see where we need to tweak it. We may be weighting some variables too much, some not enough. We'll look especially closely at the categories that are exclusive to the metric, like Quality Chances Created and Recent Form. But clearly, the Crew's recent form has killed them.

And so we fear for the Black and Gold. At their best they are the cream of the league. But this is a league with unparalleled parity in professional football. Regardless, they need to get their shite together and toot sweet. They may have won the Supporters' Shield, but they are fully capable of losing a two-game series on aggregate if they don't resume their mid-season form. Here's hoping Warzycha will have them ready on Saturday and that they won't sleep-walk their way to an early exit from the postseason.

Chicago v Chivas Will Be Low Scoring Game

By El Luchador
A disciplined betting system generally sticks to wagers only on wins and only for the home team. But, if El Luchador stands for any general principle in this meaningless post-modern world of ours, it’s this immutable principle: Rules were made to be broken. One such rule is that the over/under is a sucker’s bet. True, usually. But right now, there is a strong case to be made for checking out the MLS fixtures this week and selecting some choice opportunities to bet the under. Do it.

The reason that this makes sense is because teams are adopting a conservative approach heading into the last round of games, and the evidence shows that this approach is resulting in significantly fewer goals scored.

How many fewer? In the 17 games so far in October the average goals per game has been 1.94. This is nearly ½ a goal less per game than just last month. In 33 games in September, the average was 2.85 goals per game. The total average over time is right around 2.6, which is why the over/under is always set at 2.5.

What’s more, of the 17 games this month, there has been more than 2 goals in only 3 games, and just last week we saw two scoreless draws, the first time this has happened in MLS since July.

So what are the specific opportunities to bet the under this week? One good bet emerges from the ether as El Luchador consults his oracle:

Chivas USA at Chicago tonight. Both these teams will be playing cautious soccer as they both still have a chance at the playoffs and don’t want to blow it,especially the Fire in their home finale. Chivas has the stingiest defense in MLS allowing just .96 GA/GM, well below the league average of 1.26. And CHI also are allow below the average in goals allowed per game at 1.17.

Shop around for the best buy on this one. El Luchador saw 1.7 quoted and found a deal at 1.9 money line odds. Do it.

EPL Handicapping: Manchester City to Win Over Fulham at Home

By El Luchador
Manchester City are at home against Fulham this weekend at a critical time, and the Luchametric combined with our learned analysis points toward a victory. Despite the likely absence of Adebayor, Bellamy and Toure, City will close this deal. Do it.
OUR PREDICTION: Manchester City to Win.
MONEY LINE: Man City -222 TIE +300 Fulham +625
LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage City. Almost 1 standard deviation separates these two teams as measured by the patented Luchametric power ranking system. On offense, City are averaging 2 goals per game, and Fulham are fourth from the bottom of the league in goals scored per game at less than 1. Also, Fulham are sound and fury signifying nothing: American Clint Dempsey is hitting 3.25 shots per game this season, the fourth highest rate. But he hasn’t scored a single goal.

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage City: City have been home for two weeks having faced neighboring Wigan just 30 miles down the road in a 1-1 tie on Oct. 18. Fulham will have played 3 games in 7 days having faced Hull City at home Monday (2-0 win) and AC Roma (2-1 loss) at home on Thursday in Europa Cup action before traveling 200 miles for this match at Man City.
HOME –v- AWAY FORM – Advantage City. City have not lost or tied a single home match all season in all competition (3-0 at home in EPL play). Fulham meanwhile have won only one game on the road, a lame, 1-0 victory over the even lamer Portsmouth on Sept. 15.
MOTIVATION Draw: It's early in the season yet, so both these teams have plenty to play for and have had good recent form. Fulham are coming off a convincing 2-0 home win against Hull on Monday. As Liverpool falter, City are in a position to vault into the top 4 with a win.
HISTORY Advantage City: City lead in all competitions, 23-13-17. City and Fulham have already met once this season with City winning 2-1 Sept. 23 at home in the Carling Cup.
RECENT FORM Advantage City: City – TTWWLW (11), Fulham – WTWLLL (7). Man City’s only loss this season has come against top flight opposition on the road: A 4-3 away loss to rival Manchester United on Sept. 20. City have won their last 6 EPL matches, and 12 of their last 13 games. City go for the win at home. They have gone 26 home games without a draw, the 10th-longest streak in EPL history.
INJURIES Draw:This is where City will prove that they have depth. CITY OUT E Adebayor (Ankle/Foot) Injury; C Bellamy Groin Strain; K Toure Ankle/Foot; N Onuoha Thigh Muscle Strain; Robinho Ankle/Foot; B Mwaruwari Hip/Thigh. FULHAM OUT: D Stockdale Knee Injury; S Davies Ankle/Foot; T Kallio Achilles Heal.

If your children need new shoes, take the money you have saved and invest it in this match. Use the proceeds to buy the little rug rats two pair. This is a lock: Man City to win Sunday over Fulham.

Soccer Statistics: Corner Kicks, Goals and the Fear Factor

By El Chupacabra

It is already the stuff of legend: Last night's miraculous 95th-minute goal by Jonathan Bornstein on a beautiful corner kick by the Crew's Robbie Rogers to tie Costa Rica sent the Ticos into the last-chance playoff against Uraguay for the final World Cup spot in the Western Hemisphere and gave the U.S. yet another CONCACAF Champtionship.

It seemed highly unlikely. And in fact it was.

As a review of an intriguing statistical study from the UK as well as recent EPL and MLS stats show, the chances that a team will score directly off a corner kick are slim-to-none:

“It has been suggested that over 40% of goals in soccer are scored from set-pieces (Hughes, 1999) and that goals from this source are important at all levels of the game (Bate, 1988). Jinshan et al. (1993), for example, found that setpieces accounted for between 27 percent and 32 percent of goals in the 1986 and 1990 Soccer World Cups respectively, while Grant et al. (1999) reported a figure of 24.65 at the 1998 tournament. Among set pieces, free kicks and corner kicks have been shown to be the greatest source of goals, producing 46 percent and 132 percent of goals respectively at the 1994 World Cup (Sousa and Graganta, 2001) and 50 percent and 47.6 percent at the 1998 Competition (Grant et al.,1999).”

So, set-pieces are important. However, the same article reports that in one study, only 31 percent of corners resulted in a shot on goal. Of those SOGs, only 8 percent were then successfully converted into goals. This means that in one study at least, only 2.4 percent of corner kicks resulted directly in goals. Interestingly, however, a full 10 percent of all goals scored in the matches studied came from corners. This tells us just how important working on set pieces, especially corners, is to a team’s overall success. If you don’t take such opportunities seriously, your overall production of goals for the season is going to suffer. And in leagues where only a few pts separate teams, resulting in relegation, promotion, a shot at the playoffs (which are stupid) or a European tour in either the UEFA Champions league or Europa, 10 percent is significant.

What’s the tactical key to success? Ask Robbie Rogers and Jonathan Borenstein. The same study found that if you hit an in-swinger that accurately targets a specific zone in front of the goal, right about the PK spot running from edge to edge of the goal box, then your chance of turning a CK into a Shot on Goal goes up to 40 percent. And given that about 27 percent of all SOGs end up as actual Goals, you’ve now turned a CK into a rather dangerous weapon. Last night's dramatic goal was scored on an inswinging corner kick that landed smack dab in the middle of the zone described in the study. That the ultimate percentage of CKs to Gs is still only around 3 percent means that being able to hit that inswinger, and put it on the top of the goal box time after time is rather difficult for even the pros in the EPL and the MLS let alone your kid on Saturday morning. Plus, notice that on average, around 25 percent of SOGs become goals, but only around 8 percent of SOGs created by a corner kick become goals. This tells you how much harder it is to score a goal on an SOG created by a corner kick rather than all the other ways SOGs get created.

In short, individual corners are relatively innocent affairs. But the more corners you earn, the greater the chance that you’ll put the ball into the back of the net, right? Yes, but only if your team is good at set pieces. Read on.

A review of EPL and MLS data by El Chupa has revealed that the relationship between the sheer number of corners you earn and goals scored is not linear. The very best teams earn a lot of corners and score more goals than the very worst teams. But for average teams, the more corners you take doesn't necessarily result in more goals. That's because some teams are better at set pieces than others. When looking at corner kicks as a measure of an average team’s production, then, one also has to take into consideration the RATE at which a particular team turns CKs into SOGs and ultimately into Goals. Such data, alas, is virtually impossible to come by. The teams obviously keep track of it, but El Chupa is yet to find it on the intrawebs—probably because teams don’t want other teams to know their strengths and weaknesses. Interestingly, the correlation between Corners and Goals Scored is stronger in the EPL than in the MLS. We're still trying to figure that one out. We'll let you know if we learn anything.

Does this mean that CKs and CKAs aren’t a useful statistic? No, clearly, if your team is earning corners at a higher rate than the opposition, then you’re putting more pressure on their goal than they are on yours. Over time, this is an indication of how good you are at creating scoring chances, and how good you are at preventing the other team from creating scoring chances against you. The Luchametric doesn’t weight CKs and CKAs as much as goals obviously, but we do include them in the metric.

But when we’re on the couch, a powerful IPA or porter in hand, and our beloved Black and Gold are preparing to defend a CK by the beer foam from the Great-White-Trash-North, we breath easy. . . and crack another brew. Do it.