Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Luchametric Dot Com: Soccer Statistics

What Bill James did for Baseball, the Luchametric aims to do for soccer.

The Luchametric is a weighted statistical score that represents the net number of Goals plus Chances Created (events that could have led to goals) each team produces per game, minus Goals plus Chances Created Against. The Z-Score gives the relative differences among the teams in Standard Deviations. The metric considers and weights the following variables: Home Goals, Away Goals, Home Wins, Away Wins, Draws, Losses, Shots, Shots on Goals, Quality Shots on Goal, Corners For, Corners Against, Goals Against, Shots on Goal Against, and Recent Form.

The weights for each category were derived by looking at a range of variables (statistical categories) and subjecting them to simple regression analysis to identify those stats which are the strongest measure of a team's strength relative to other teams.  We are currently doing a multiple regression analysis of the entire metric for both EPL and MLS in order to develop both a predictive model for individual teams across an entire season and for predicting individual matches.  

Currently, across most professional leagues, the home team wins 50% of the time, the away team 25%, and the remaining 25% of games are draws.  When there is a substantial difference in relative team strength, the home team win % approaches 65% or more.  The Luchametric Power Rankings are designed to measure team strength in order to give fans and punters an edge on these basic percentages.  For serious punters, a gain in predictability of just 5% is  substantial.   Currently, a team with an advantage of 1 full Standard Deviation in the LM indicates a sizable advantage over the other team.  We are tracking games week by week  in our effort to test the predictability of the metric on a game-by-game basis.  We do this for fun and madness only and have absolutely no connection to any commercial venture whatsoever.

To download Excel files containing the comprehensive team stats, click on the appropriate link below. To be put on our mailing list and receive the Luchametric Power Rankings as soon as they are up, including an Excel file with that week's data, click  here.

The Nordecke Luchador and his associates are indemnified from liability from the misuse of these powerful tools. 

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