Wednesday, March 31, 2010

EPL Handicapping: Wayne Rooney is Out, So Chelsea Will Win

Wayne Rooney's injury Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League has not yet moved the odds on Man U to win the EPL or this Saturday's Battle Royale at home with Chelsea, and this presents an opportunity for savvy punters.

At 2.70, Chelsea to win away at Manchester Saturday is a solid bet. Here's why the Luchametric says do it:

1.) Without Rooney, Man U Feeble. With 26 goals, Rooney has scored more than any player in the EPL, and he is Man U's main offensive threat. It's difficult to see how they have much juice without him.
2) Travel.  Man U flew 1,000 miles midweek for their disappointing 2-1 loss v Bayern Munchen Tuesday, whilst Chelsea have been training comfortably at home all week and have just a short jaunt down the road for Saturday's lunchtime match.
3) Momentum. While Man U lost on a heartbreaking last minute goal in that UEFA Champions League match in Munich, Chelsea are coming off their impressive 7-1 bitch slap of the previously respectable Aston Villa on Saturday.
4) Luchametric. There is little that separates these two on the Luchametric, but Chelsea have the edge. The Blues have a total Luchametric score of 8.2 versus Man U's 7.7. What's more, Chelsea have more offensive potential statistically than Ferguson's boys with 7.4 shots on goal per game versus Man U's 6.8, and Chelsea have a 20 to 18 advantage on total shots per game. Chelsea only allows 2.88 SOG Against per Game while Man allows 3.97.  What's more, last November at Stamford Bridge, Man U managed only 2 SOG the entire game, although they did put much pressure on the Blues, amassing 20 Shots and 7 corners.  Look for Chelsea again to bend but not break, especially with Rooney out.
5) God. He hates Manchester United for their conceit.

El Luchador's pick: Bet on Chelsea to win. Do it.

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