By El Chupacabra
If you saw the interview with MLS Commissioner Don Garber on Fox Soccer Fone-In on Monday, you saw him respond to a question about implementing a Single Table for the MLS (listen to it here). His response was, and I paraphrase, that he doesn't "get it." His argument is that a single table would make games at the end of the season meaningless.
Said Garber (and I quote): "The Columbus Crew would have won 10 days before the end of the season. They would have been celebrating the championship at a game where they lost.
“I understand the heritage and tradition that people enjoy with a single table. But somebody would have to explain to me how that would be better than what we have now, because I’m not getting it."
Garber's logic is flawed in a few key ways. First and foremost, a single table does not preclude a playoff system. The FIFA tournaments and the UEFA Champions League use a group system and then a knock-out round. One could argue that the current MLS arrangement with two conferences and then a play-off is similar. However, the MLS playoff system as it currently stands takes the top two teams from each group (conference) and then the next four best teams regardless of group (conference). This arrangment essentially amounts to letting the top eight teams in a single table into a knock-out round, which the International House of Soccer calls the MLS Cup. What's worse, the MLS system lets in half of the teams in the league. This year, Real Salt Lake had more losses than wins and amassed a mere 40 pts over the course of the season. The average number of points earned in the league this year was 40.4.
El Chupa agrees that the games at the end of the season should have meaning. But this desire needs to be balanced with the logic of sport--and the logic of logic.
If the purpose of any competition is to determine who is the best team, then clearly the team that does the best over time is the best team. Period. The MLS system allows teams which are clearly inferior a shot at knocking off a better team in a short series. Anything can and will happen in a short home and away series. Rubin Kazan just "won" a home and away series over Barcelona. Yesterday in the frigid cold of Kazan's Central Stadium, Rubin kept six defenders back and essentially played for the draw, stifling Barca's vaunted offensive machine who all looked like they were literally freezing their asses off. Is Rubin a better team than Barca? Hardly. Barca will still most likely make it out of their group along with Inter, and the Russian Premier League champions will end up in the UEFA Europa competition. This is as it should be, as the group stage gives teams the chance to recover from upsets, thus insuring that only the very best teams make it through to the knock-out round
Now, don't El Chupa wrong, he loves it when an underdog sticks it to a better team. It makes for great sport. But such drama doesn't belong in a knock-out round where the true underdogs have no place. In a sound system, the inferior teams will have been eliminated. But in the MLS playoff system, teams that are not even AVERAGE get a shot at being a spoiler, as they aren't eliminated in the "group stage" (regular season).
Garber also spoke of American "sporting traditions and heritage." Um, by this does he mean he wants the International House of Soccer to follow in the footsteps of the NBA and the NHL, where bad teams get rewarded with a playoff spot for monetary reasons only? The NBA system is a joke. But even in the NBA, the first round is seven games, which make it a legitimate test. If the MLS had a three-game knockout round, it would be one thing. But the current system, which doesn't weight away goals like the UEFA competitions, doesn't do justice to the logic of a sport which demands its own distinct and reasonable means of determining not just the winner of individual competitions, but the best team over the course of several competitions.
Yes, some times the best team doesn't win. And that's what makes sport exciting. But the International House of Soccer is clearly going for entertainment value over competitive legitimacy.
We love the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, where Cinderella teams routinely make runs into the Sweet Sixteen--but generally no further and RARELY into the final four. And we certainly think it's the case that truly great teams need to step it up in high pressure situations. But there have to be limits. And we think the current MLS system is unbalanced in favor of sports-O-tainment and of the business of sport. We like salary caps and revenue sharing. We think the European leagues are unbalanced and less interesting than American leagues like the MLS and the NFL where smaller-market teams actually have a chance of being champion. But the fact is: Garber just doesn't get it.
The solution? A single table with a revamped playoff system that reduces the number of teams which make it to the knock-out stage with the compensation of participation in international competitions based on ranking in the single table. Major League Soccer Rumors offers a very interesting possibility here, and it's one El Chupa endorses. Researching this article has resulted in a dismaying number of douche-bags in the blogo-sphere, including Brian Strauss and Paul Pabst, who also don't get it, and who clearly are coming from a rather provincial perspective that bristles rather xenophobically at the infatuation American soccer fans have with the European leagues. To Pabst's credit, he misses only the obvious point that a single table doesn't preclude a playoff system nor is Pabst anti-European. Strauss is just, well, a douche.
If you can track down Garber's email (I failed), send him a note reminding him that as long as MLS continues to cater to American sports fans rather than American soccer fans, the MLS will remain the joke it is in the world of International Pancakes--er, I mean football.
Showing posts with label MLS Talk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLS Talk. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
For the Punters: KC at DC
By El Chupa
DC is favored here, no surprise. They're better and they're at home. Odds are -153 for DC; +330 for KC to win. KC may have exploded against NE, but we don't think they'll sustain it for two road games in a row and not against DC. DC has not lost at home yet this year. They also need three points. $15.30 on DC to win earns you $10. We think that's a very good return, on a pretty safe bet.
DC is favored here, no surprise. They're better and they're at home. Odds are -153 for DC; +330 for KC to win. KC may have exploded against NE, but we don't think they'll sustain it for two road games in a row and not against DC. DC has not lost at home yet this year. They also need three points. $15.30 on DC to win earns you $10. We think that's a very good return, on a pretty safe bet.
Catering to the Masses: Not!
By El Chupa
Just a quick note before I try to get the MLS stats updated for release later today. As we noted last week, and as Eric Wynalda pointed out last night on Fox Football Fone-In, the MLS has got to quit trying to lure American Sports fans away from NASCAR and SEC football and start catering to American Soccer fans. Period. Wynalda goes even further, asking pointedly: why cater to soccer moms who don't know anything about the game when you can cater to the millions of knowledgeable football fans and thus build both the game and the league's marketshare? El Chupa is 42. He went to an NASL playoff game between New England and Rochester in the late 1970s. He played nothing but soccer from the time he was 8 until he graduated high school, MVP of his high school team. He grew up not in California or the Northeast corridor but deep in the midwest. In short, soccer is not "new." Everytime he hears an undereducated and overpaid sportscaster describe American soccer and the MLS as emergent he reaches for a gun but usually pops a Xanax instead. Seattle sells 24,000+ tickets a game not because soccer in the Pacific NW is a new fad, but because it's deeply ingrained in the psyche of its people. The MLS doesn't understand this and needs to rethink its business model.
Just a quick note before I try to get the MLS stats updated for release later today. As we noted last week, and as Eric Wynalda pointed out last night on Fox Football Fone-In, the MLS has got to quit trying to lure American Sports fans away from NASCAR and SEC football and start catering to American Soccer fans. Period. Wynalda goes even further, asking pointedly: why cater to soccer moms who don't know anything about the game when you can cater to the millions of knowledgeable football fans and thus build both the game and the league's marketshare? El Chupa is 42. He went to an NASL playoff game between New England and Rochester in the late 1970s. He played nothing but soccer from the time he was 8 until he graduated high school, MVP of his high school team. He grew up not in California or the Northeast corridor but deep in the midwest. In short, soccer is not "new." Everytime he hears an undereducated and overpaid sportscaster describe American soccer and the MLS as emergent he reaches for a gun but usually pops a Xanax instead. Seattle sells 24,000+ tickets a game not because soccer in the Pacific NW is a new fad, but because it's deeply ingrained in the psyche of its people. The MLS doesn't understand this and needs to rethink its business model.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
El Chupa Rants: MLS Parity, Marketshare, and Strippers
By El Chupa
As promised, here is an account of parity in the MLS this season, and my thoughts about why the MLS can go suck it.
To begin, allow El Chupa to rant. Great job MLS! You've raised the least common denominator in the league to the point where only one or two teams truly suck, but most teams are all pretty much the same. Plus, they all pretty much have the same chance of getting into the Playoffs and most of them WILL get into the playoffs. What incentive is there, then, for a team to acquire first rate talent and coaching? NONE! Parity, when it is a result of each team struggling mightily to be better than the others is one thing; parity when it is a result of an entire league rigged to reward mediocrity is something else: it's called Major League Soccer.
As the chart above indicates, through last weekend's games, 11 teams have earned 31 pts or more. The top two teams in each conference plus the next best six teams regardless of conference make the playoffs. The word on the street is that the current minimum number to qualify for the playoffs is 33. As the numbers suggest, 11 of the 15 teams in the league currently still have a shot at the playoffs. Let's think about this for a minute, shall we?
First, the playoff system is a joke. It's driven solely by the interest in generating revenue not the logic of sport and certainly not the logic of the beautiful game. Explain to me why over HALF of the teams in the league should qualify for the playoffs? Such a system insures that average and even mediocre teams get "rewarded" by additional games. Further, the EPL has no playoff system, La Liga has no playoff system, the Bundesliga has no playoff system. Why? Because it makes no freaking sense, that's why. In the MLS, after 30 games, including home and away against every other team in the league, it's clear who's the best team in the league in any given year: the team with the most points! Duh!
But it gets worse, the third column of the chart (PAA) indicates how many points above the league average (Points Above Average) each team has earned thus far. Notice that the top four have each achieved a respectable number of PAA. But notice also that seven teams are only within one or two points of the league average. No bell curve for MLS, we want everyone to be the same: average! Yay! We have the most mediocre league in the world! A bad call here (and there a lot of them in the MLS), an unlucky bounce there, and practically the entire league would be the same.
But it gets still worse. Look at the last column in the chart or points earned per game. Notice anything? How about the fact that a full 13 teams are within one point, or one draw, of each other. Read it two ways. One, the chart clearly shows that regardless of how many games each team has played (the more games, the more potential PTS, remember, so this column makes up for the fact that not every team has played the same number of games) virtually every team earns about the same number of PTS/GM as every other; indeed, the difference among 11 of the teams is negligible. Two, this means that when these teams play each other, each team has pretty much the same chance of coming away with 1 to 3 PTS as every other team. Look at the win-loss ratio. The average number of wins is 8, the average number of losses is 8. Most teams are within 1 or at most 2 W/L of the average. If the team was comprised of 15 Man Us, or 15 Barcas, it would be one thing. But we've got a league of 13 teams who would get carved apart by Portsmouth, currently at the bottom of the standings in the EPL, and two who are so awful they might get carved apart by the teams in USL 1.
The bottom line of course is, does parity equal good football? We think not. Unlike our friends at MLS.Talk, we think parity is bullshit and a symptom of just how far the MLS has its head up its ass. Allow El Chupa to rant a bit further.
The MLS has got to quit marketing to American Sports Fans and start marketing more to American SOCCER Fans. We don't drink Bud Light, we don't want cheerleaders at the games, we don't want two conferences which completely distort how the teams really compare to one another. We don't want a bullshit playoff where lame-ass teams who are incapable of playing exciting, creative, beautiful football get rewarded with more TV time and more TV revenue. Hey, MLS! You're losing TV marketshare to the European leagues. Hey, MLS! You're losing TV marketshare to the South American leagues. Why? Because we know better you twits! Why should I watch some dismal game between two mediocre MLS teams when I can watch a much better match from Europe or S.A. on FSC, GOL, Setanta, or their Spanish-language sister stations?
We want a single freaking table! We want relegation to the USL! We want at most four teams in the playoffs if we have to have a playoff just to keep the league afloat. And for the love of God, microbrews, and country, get rid of the Crewzers! High School and certainly College cheerleaders are actual athletes; professional cheerleaders are strippers without poles and far too many clothes on. Give me a break.
As promised, here is an account of parity in the MLS this season, and my thoughts about why the MLS can go suck it.
To begin, allow El Chupa to rant. Great job MLS! You've raised the least common denominator in the league to the point where only one or two teams truly suck, but most teams are all pretty much the same. Plus, they all pretty much have the same chance of getting into the Playoffs and most of them WILL get into the playoffs. What incentive is there, then, for a team to acquire first rate talent and coaching? NONE! Parity, when it is a result of each team struggling mightily to be better than the others is one thing; parity when it is a result of an entire league rigged to reward mediocrity is something else: it's called Major League Soccer.
As the chart above indicates, through last weekend's games, 11 teams have earned 31 pts or more. The top two teams in each conference plus the next best six teams regardless of conference make the playoffs. The word on the street is that the current minimum number to qualify for the playoffs is 33. As the numbers suggest, 11 of the 15 teams in the league currently still have a shot at the playoffs. Let's think about this for a minute, shall we?
First, the playoff system is a joke. It's driven solely by the interest in generating revenue not the logic of sport and certainly not the logic of the beautiful game. Explain to me why over HALF of the teams in the league should qualify for the playoffs? Such a system insures that average and even mediocre teams get "rewarded" by additional games. Further, the EPL has no playoff system, La Liga has no playoff system, the Bundesliga has no playoff system. Why? Because it makes no freaking sense, that's why. In the MLS, after 30 games, including home and away against every other team in the league, it's clear who's the best team in the league in any given year: the team with the most points! Duh!But it gets worse, the third column of the chart (PAA) indicates how many points above the league average (Points Above Average) each team has earned thus far. Notice that the top four have each achieved a respectable number of PAA. But notice also that seven teams are only within one or two points of the league average. No bell curve for MLS, we want everyone to be the same: average! Yay! We have the most mediocre league in the world! A bad call here (and there a lot of them in the MLS), an unlucky bounce there, and practically the entire league would be the same.
But it gets still worse. Look at the last column in the chart or points earned per game. Notice anything? How about the fact that a full 13 teams are within one point, or one draw, of each other. Read it two ways. One, the chart clearly shows that regardless of how many games each team has played (the more games, the more potential PTS, remember, so this column makes up for the fact that not every team has played the same number of games) virtually every team earns about the same number of PTS/GM as every other; indeed, the difference among 11 of the teams is negligible. Two, this means that when these teams play each other, each team has pretty much the same chance of coming away with 1 to 3 PTS as every other team. Look at the win-loss ratio. The average number of wins is 8, the average number of losses is 8. Most teams are within 1 or at most 2 W/L of the average. If the team was comprised of 15 Man Us, or 15 Barcas, it would be one thing. But we've got a league of 13 teams who would get carved apart by Portsmouth, currently at the bottom of the standings in the EPL, and two who are so awful they might get carved apart by the teams in USL 1.
The bottom line of course is, does parity equal good football? We think not. Unlike our friends at MLS.Talk, we think parity is bullshit and a symptom of just how far the MLS has its head up its ass. Allow El Chupa to rant a bit further.
The MLS has got to quit marketing to American Sports Fans and start marketing more to American SOCCER Fans. We don't drink Bud Light, we don't want cheerleaders at the games, we don't want two conferences which completely distort how the teams really compare to one another. We don't want a bullshit playoff where lame-ass teams who are incapable of playing exciting, creative, beautiful football get rewarded with more TV time and more TV revenue. Hey, MLS! You're losing TV marketshare to the European leagues. Hey, MLS! You're losing TV marketshare to the South American leagues. Why? Because we know better you twits! Why should I watch some dismal game between two mediocre MLS teams when I can watch a much better match from Europe or S.A. on FSC, GOL, Setanta, or their Spanish-language sister stations?
We want a single freaking table! We want relegation to the USL! We want at most four teams in the playoffs if we have to have a playoff just to keep the league afloat. And for the love of God, microbrews, and country, get rid of the Crewzers! High School and certainly College cheerleaders are actual athletes; professional cheerleaders are strippers without poles and far too many clothes on. Give me a break.
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