Luchametric EPL Power Rankings: Blues, Red Devils, Gunners

By El Chupa
No real movement this week in our EPL Power Rankings. Chelsea remains on top, but there's really very little difference among the top three.  Arsenal has won six matches in the EPL in a row and are scorching hot.  Plus, they have Fabregas back.  If anyone can beat Barca right now over in the Champions League it's the Gunners in absolute peak form.  It should be an exciting last couple of months in the EPL, with three teams competing for the title and four teams (five if you include Everton) competing for the fourth automatic spot in next year's UEFA Champions League: Spurs, Villa, Liverpool and Man City are neck-and-neck for the fourth spot.

Of the four teams competing for number four, Villa is our dark horse, and the team closest to our hearts.  They have given up the fewest GA of all four teams (25) and have the second-best GD at 17 (Man City is first at 16).  Villa are four points behind Spurs with tough away games at Chelsea and Man City left to play; so it certainly won't be easy. Their last two outings have been disappointing home draws to down table Wolves and Sunderland. On this basis, some are counting them out, which would be premature.

At the bottom end, Hull City is by far the poorest performer statistically, with a Luchametric score well over a one full standard deviation off the average and behind Fulham.

Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings: Houston and Crew to Vie for Supporters Shield

By El Chupa

These past few weeks, while El Luchador has been in the streets waging guerrilla war on the establishment, and the Major League Soccer season has hung in the balance, El Chupacabra has been scouting the league, reviewing his notes from last season, and analyzing the off-season moves by each MLS club. Now that El Luchador and his brothers-in-arms in the Players Union have emerged victorious, and the 2010 MLS season is set to kick-off this week, we present the patented Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings.

If you happen to live in a jurisdiction where sports wagering is legal, these rankings are offered as a tool for handicapping the early MLS season, a period during which we will have little fresh data available to inform our predictions--and punts ("wagers" for our fellow American gaming enthusiasts). Pre-season rankings aren’t predictions--they’re observations. There are always “ifs” on each club, the season is long, and much can happen. We aren’t predicting the season will end in the following order, but this is how we think the league stacks up out of the gate. The Luchametric Institute for Advanced Sports Prediction Science is indemnified from liability for misuse of these powerful tools.  

Luchametric MLS Pre-Season Power Rankings
1. Houston
2. Columbus
3. LA
4. Seattle
5.Chivas
6. Chicago
7. Colorado
8. D.C.
9. Real Salt Lake
10. Philly
11. Dallas
12. K.C.
13. New England
14. NYC
15. Toronto
16. San Jose

1. Houston – Houston finished second in the Luchametric Power Rankings last season, tying LA in the West with 48 points. Houston and LA were tied for second in the league overall behind the Crew. Houston are stingy on defense, giving up only .97 GA/GM (tied with Seattle for first in the league). Their 4.03 SOGA/GM puts them well below the league average of 4.8. Offseason they lost Holden and Clark but completed a trade for Kevin Harmse with LA. Harmse will add depth and toughness to the midfield. They also have just signed Jamaican International midfielder Lovel Palme. Even with the loss of two key players, we think with their defense and Ching and Landin leading the attack on a team with a Goal Differential last season of 10 (tied with the Crew for best in the league) and a unique home field advantage due to the scorching, humid Texas heat, Houston will make a run for both the MLS cup and the Supporters Shield.

2. Columbus – We’ve put the Crew second and feel strongly that last season’s slow start and weak finish were flukes. Their strong showing in their two CONCACAF Champions League games against Mexican side Tolouca was impressive. If Schelotto is healthy and can play all season; and if Lenhart and Rogers continue to mature, and if Sergio Herrera settles in and helps create up front, the Crew will again find themselves competing for both the MLS Cup and the Supporters Shield. We should know by the end of the first six games or so whether the real Crew is the team we saw in June and July—or September.

3. LA- The Galaxy finished third in the LM and tied for second in the league table with 48 points. Offseason they acquired Clint Mathis from MLS Cup champion Real Salt Lake and three players on loan from Brazilian club Sao Paolo FC. Donovan is back from a stellar performance for Everton in the EPL and although Beckham is out indefinitely, LA’s overall production last season was excellent in spite of a dearth of goals. As such, should the acquisitions improve the team’s goal production, LA will be very tough.  They will have to hang tough while Donovan is in South Africa for the World Cup, however.

4. Seattle – The Sounders finished last season at the top of the Luchametric Power Rankings and fourth in the league table with 47 points. They were very tough on defense, giving up the fewest SOGA per game in the league and the fewest GA/GM in the league (tied with Houston at .97 GA/GM). As such, they were very tough to beat, amassing 11 draws. Off-season they needed to improve their attack, and they did, signing Swiss International Blaise Nkufo. He has been with Dutch First Division Club FC Twente since 2003 and has been their leading scorer each year since he joined. He is 34 (another aging European/South American player comes to the MLS) but he has nine goals in the Eredivisie this season and has scored in all six of Switzerland’s World Cup Qualifiers suggesting he is in fine form. He will finish the Dutch season before heading to South Africa and then joining the Sounders. If the Sounders can hang tough until mid-July, he should make an immediate impact.  If they had Nkufo from the first game, they'd be our number one.

 5. Chivas – The City of Angel’s “other” team (let's face it, LA's Mexican team), Chivas was a bit of a puzzle last season. The club was tied with Dallas and New York for the fewest number of draws at 6, but the club still managed to produce 45 points. The club either won or lost virtually every time it went out, testing the theory that a team needs to settle for draws if it hopes to succeed over the long haul. The club scored only 34 Goals, below the league average of 38, but gave up only 31, much better than the league average of 38. Their ability to shut down opposing teams was their greatest strength last season and perhaps explains how they scratched out as many points as they did in spite of a less-than-impressive offense. Their two major offseason signings, Osael Romero (Vista Hermosa - El Salvador) and Michael Umana (Liberia Mia - Costa Rica) don’t suggest there will be more goals for Chivas this season.

6. Chicago – The Fire finished fourth in the LM Rankings and tied with Chivas for fifth in the league table with 45 points. They certainly will be a different team without Mexican legend Cuauhtemoc Blanco, however.  Chicago had a hard time scoring at home last season, totaling only 16 GF compared to 23 GF on the road. They’re attacking style resulted in above average SOG and CKs, but they had a hard time finding the net overall. Offseason they signed Krzysztof Król on loan from the Polish first division to fill the left back position; Collins John, a Liberian-born Dutch striker with experience in both the EPL and the Eredivisie, but a player who has failed to stick anywhere he has played and who has a reputation as a bit of a head-case; and Julio Martinez, a Salvadorian International winger on loan from Mexican club Leon. If Martinez and John can add to the Fire’s attack and the team finds a suitable replacement for Blanco, Chicago may be in a position to improve on last season’s showing.

7. Colorado – The Rapids had a respectable season, earning 40 PTS and basically establishing the median line in the MLS table. They scored 1.4 G/GM and gave up 1.27. They had a lot of draws (10) but only 2 wins on the road and 10 losses. Both Colorado and Real Salt Lake enjoy substantial home field advantages due to their respective altitudes. But the Rapids’ offseason moves are unimpressive and a bit of a puzzle.  Conor Casey and Omar Cummings can score, and Ballouchy has potential.  So look for Colorado still to be tough at home and playoff bound, but not a serious threat to unseat the top teams in the table.

8. D.C. – El Chupa has had it in for DC since he heckled John Harkes at the very first Crew game back in the ‘Shoe. DC’s success has only made a bad relationship worse, which is one way of saying that DC still evokes fear in El Chupa. However, DC stunk last season. And when you watched them, you saw a team that couldn’t play as a unit and which was constantly bickering on the field. The offseason moves don’t indicate they’ve solved the puzzle. They essentially jettisoned most of last year’s team and other than Cristian Castillo, the offseason signings are uninspiring.

9. RSL – RSL played very well in the postseason. They earned 40 PTS in the regular season which was average. Kudos to the team for making a very good run when it mattered most. But we think that was a fluke and the loss of Mathis will hurt them.  The team made few moves in the offseason and looks like they are building for the future. We expect them to be average once again.  If they don't start winning on the road and away from the high elevation of Rio Tinto, they won't get the chance this year to peak at just the right moment.  And they won't take anybody by surprise and every team will be gunning for them.  Finally, white guys with dreads are like mimes: you see the damnedest things when you ain't got your shotgun. . . .

10. Philly – That’s right. Expansion Philly at No. 10. Why? They did well in the expansion draft. They have a brand new stadium. They will have big crowds all season, and they have a good chance to score goals with Le Toux, Moreno and prospective phenom Mwanga looking to put it in the back of the net.  Given the mediocrity of the teams in the bottom half of the league, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Philly make a run into the post-season. (Look what Seattle did in their first year). Caution has us putting them below the top eight, however.

11. Dallas – Dallas earned 39 PTS last season, one PT below the league average of 40. There are no indications that FCD has made the changes they needed to in order to improve on last year’s mediocrity.  They made few offseason acquisitions and are banking on the core team coming together and improving on last season.  Again, 39 PTS is not that far off the top of the league, and Dallas' strategy could pay off.
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12. K.C. – KC signed some journeyman European players in the off-season but nothing to shout about. They amassed only 33 points last year, and we don’t see them doing much better this season.  Their temporary stadium is such an absolute abomination we refuse to watch any games broadcast from it.  Yeah, there's not much they can do about it.  But it's probably best just to avert thine eyes until things improve in KCK.

13. New England – The Revolution earned 42 PTS last season but were 11th in the LM rankings. Their off-season moves were principally spent signing young players in the Superdraft and we don’t see them doing much better this season than last.  42 PTS is, again, only 7 off the top of the league.  But still. . .

14. NYC – The Red Bulls are going to be better this season for two reasons: First: they can’t really be worse than they were last season; second: their new stadium will give them a bit of a bump at home. Juan Pablo Angel can score, but they need help in the midfield and at the back to stay in matches and produce chances.  There are a lot of ifs on this team.  They have a new and experienced coach in Hans Backe. Regardless, we see them remaining in the bottom half of the league table.

15. Toronto – 39 PTS last season and only 33 GF (league average: 38) and no significant offseason moves adds up to another postseason watching hockey.  Gerba and deRosario can score, but there are too many holes in the rest of the team.  They gave up 1.53 GA/GM last year and amassed 10 wins but suffered 11 losses.  Consistency will be the key, but we don't see them improving much.  Plus, their fans are drunken, loutish, mouth-breathers.

16. San Jose – Only one team was worse than San Jose last season (Red Bulls) and there are no signs that San Jose will be any better.  Sanchez brings experience and speed to the midfield and Alvarez could certainly mature.  Ryan Johnson is a great striker but the team as a whole needs to come together to give Ryan good service and to get any better than last season.  Unfortunately, they have a lot of tough teams ahead of them in the standings and on the schedule.

Arsenal and Chelsea Outpace the Pack in Updated Power Rankings

By El Chupacabra
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Monday's match at Anfield. Arsenal is back on top followed, again extremely closely, by Chelsea. Man U and Man City round out the top four but are significantly back of the top two.

Notice that a mere .16th of a StandDev separates the Gunners from the Blues. Chelsea has more points and more wins, but Arsenal has more goals (as always, you can look at the comprehensive data here). The Goal Differential of both teams is nearly identical: 22 for Arsenal; 21 for Chelsea. Arsenal has played one game less than Chelsea, and this accounts for the difference in wins to some extent.

Before you Blues fans blow a gasket, consider that the difference between the two teams is really negligible, at least statistically, but it comes down to this: Arsenal is a better offensive club, Chelsea the better defensive club. And Chelsea is probably more balanced overall.
The Luchametric weighs a number of different variables, and it could be that we need to look at the defensive side of the model. We have a measure for Quality Scoring Chances, for example, and in this measure Arsenal is clearly superior. But we're still looking at comprenhesive statistical measures of a team's defense.

We can say this, however: A full 42 % of the Gunners' Shots on Goal become goals, compared to 30% for Chelsea. That's a 25% difference. Also, 32% of Arsenal's SOG Against become Goals Against, compared to 25% for Chelsea (the league average is 25%; the league leaders are Villa with an impressively low 18%). Arsenal allows 1.27 GA per game, while Chelsea allows a mere .67 GA per game. And Chelsea allows only 2.67 SOGA per game, while Arsenal allows 4.0 SOGA. That's fairly significant. Chelsea is unbelievably stingy. You may have noticed on Sunday if you caught the game against Man U that Chelsea had the usual four man back line, but then frequently had another two men behind that. They were in essence playing a sort of 2-4-3-1 or you could just call it a 5-4-1. This shows both their respect for Man U and the genius of Ancelotti.

At this point, given the history of the league and of the big four, its understandable why so much attention still gets paid to Liverpool, who really are in trouble at this point, and that so many people continue to doubt Wenger's confidence that his club is playing for the title. But the evidence is clear: this year, barring injuries (Bendtner), Chelsea and Arsenal are the cream of the league. We look forward to the November 29 match at Emirates against Chelsea. This will be the true test of the two teams and should be some outstanding football. The league's best attacking club against the league's most balanced and most stingy club. At Stamford bridge, we'd take Chelsea, but at Emirates, Arsenal will give the Blues all they can handle.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Gunners Still on Top

By El Chupacabra
The EPL Power Rankings have been updated in time for this weekend's fixtures. As always, you can access the data here. Arsenal is still on top followed by Chelsea, Man U and Man City. The top two teams are within .5 Standard Deviations of each other, indicating relative competitive equality. The Gunners have created some significant daylight between themselves and Man City, Liverpool and Spurs, indicating they are considerably better than the latter three teams.

Yeah, yeah, our rankings are different than the actual standings--that's the point. Our metric takes far more variables into consideration than do the standings, which only consider and weight wins and draws. Our rankings are thus more accurate, in our humble opinion.

Notice too that our bottom three are different from the official standings as well. Don't count West Ham out just yet people. Even the talking heads on Super Sunday think they are a better club than they've shown thus far, as the draw against Arsenal at home indicates. One final observation worth noting, we've got Stoke rather far down our table. Will look at it more closely and report back in the next few days. Full disclosure: El Chupa roots for the Gunners. Boo YAH!

EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U

By El Chupacabra
Our EPL Power Rankings are fully updated and ready for this weekend's renewal of EPL play following International Week. Chelsea is on top followed closely by Arsenal and Man U. Arsenal's ability to score boo coo goals has put them ahead of Man U. Man U is also giving up goals and dropping points to lesser opponents. We have Liverpool and Man City ahead of Spurs. Spurs is erratic, give up goals, and the tie with Bolton has hurt them in the rankings. Burnley has moved out of the relegation zone in our rankings but they need to start earning points away from home and soon. And remember, the comprehensive EPL team statistics are now available here.

MLS Power Rankings Updated

By El Chupacabra
The MLS Power Rankings have been updated since Wednesday's game between Dallas and San Jose. No major changes to report. Dallas and DC are within two PTS of making the playoffs and are ranked higher than New England. Here's hoping the Crew win on Saturday to keep DC and Dallas in the hunt. It's going to be a sad day for the reputation of the International House of Soccer (MLS) if a team as crappy as New England gets rewarded with a shot at the MLS Cup.
I guess we could also point out that even though Houston is second in the league with 44 PTS, the Luchametric is unimpressed, as we have even SEA and COL ahead of them in the rankings. Tough noogies Dynamo fans. You can suck it.
Of course, to be REALLY fair, the differences among CHI, LA, SEA, COL, HOU and CVS are negligible. Only our Crew have some daylight between themselves and the rest of the pack. 'till I die. . .

MLS Power Rankings: Playoff Picture Clearly a Joke

By El Chupacabra
The playoff picture has gotten a bit clearer but also a bit more dramatic as both Chivas USA (dirty hacks--only RSL and SEA have more Reds and Yellows) and New England are making a serious run for the final two spots.

Our rankings, however, are not as impressed with New England as the suits at MLS who came up with this ridiculous playoff system. As we've said before, mediocre teams get into the playoffs in order to generate revenue not because of the logic of sport, certainly not the logic of football. Chivas can at least make a case for belonging in the top tier, as they have a Z score in the LM nearly .5 above the league average. New England? How about -.16 Standard Deviations BELOW the league average. Yeah, a team whose total production for the season and per game is LESS THAN AVERAGE has a shot at the post-season. Nice job MLS. You've created a sport product that has taken the sport out of the product. Freaking corporate scum.

MLS Power Rankings: Crew Sees Daylight

By El Chupa
El Luchador's MLS Power Rankings have been fully updated, and the Crew now enjoys over one-half of a StandDev over it's nearest rival, Chicago. LA has dropped to third followed by Seattle and Houston who are neck and neck for fourth.

The Crew's important victory over the Galaxy is significant, especially in light of the rest of the games this weekend, in that the boys in Black and Gold are clearly the premier team in the league. COL is beat up and can't win at home or on the road against a lesser opponent. DC is simply toothless. CHI can't protect it's home turf and is as inconsistent as is the rest of the league--that is, except the Crew. Only the Crew win when they are supposed to win and draw when they play a tough team on the road (CHI). The Crew have only one loss in their last 10 games. No on else in the league can say as much. The loss to NY now looks like a little bump on the road. In short, only the Crew has been consistent, and only the Crew consistently shows up and gets it done.

The win against LA is also significant in that the boys beat the Galaxy without even running out its best 11. This speaks to their depth and the genius of Sigi Schmid. He is keeping the team rested but getting as much out of them as is needed. We look forward to the playoffs.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Luchametric 3.0

By El Chupa
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's match between Sunderland and Wolves. We've simplified the chart to make it easier for our loyal readers. The chart now provides the Luchametric score, the number of Standard Deviations above or below the mean (Z Score) of the club's Luchametric score, and finally, the actual number of points the club has earned thus far to allow for comparisons.

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are now making the Luchametric data available to our readers as an Excel spreadsheet. Look at the top of column two to the right to find the link. The MLS data will be available later today.

No real changes this week, except that Man U is gaining on Chelsea, and there is now little daylight separating the two clubs. Also, Spurs are lower than both Man City and Arsenal, in spite of being ahead in the actual standings. We stand by our rankings.

Finally, we have some bad news for Burnley fans, something we've observed for the last few weeks but have held back commenting on. In spite of their nine points, Burnely lag far behind the rest of the league in the Luchametric's overall measure of production. In our view, Burnley actually are in grave danger of being relegated. We don't see them earning many points the rest of the year given the overall numbers unless things start to pick up for them and toot sweet. They are far below the league averages for Shots, Shots on Goal, and Goals Scored. You heard it here first.

MLS Handicapping: Preview and Betting Tips for This Weekend's Fixtures

By El Chupa
Overall, we're not too excited about this weekend's matches from a wagering standpoint. But we offer these humble suggestions.

LA at Crew - We think this is a likely draw. A VERY likely draw. And at +215, a very good wager. But we love the Crew too much not to hope for a win. Betting our mind and not our heart is not in our makeup, however. Look for El Luchador to put it all on the line in this one.

Seattle at New England - We like NE here, at home, fighting for a playoff spot. At +105 it's a decent wager. As far as we're concerned, both teams have been inconsistent and are part of the parity problem in MLS. This is also one worth avoiding as it could be low scoring and all it will take is an odd bounce or call to decide the match. But if we had to choose, we'd choose NE.

COL at KC - At +210 and a full STDEV above KC in the Luchametric, we very much like COL here. They need three points and have already beaten KC this year. We don't expect a lot of goals out of either team, however. Check COL's roster to see who's in and who's out. COL was all over SJO on Wednesday and were screwed by yet another bad call. Imagine that! Crappy officiating in the MLS. What a surprise. Update: COL is beat up pretty badly. This one is now too close to call.

RSL at DAL - We like DAL at even odds here. They are tough at home and teams wilt in the heat. For those of you in the North or Northwest of the country, take it from someone who lives on the GA/FL border. It's still hot as F down here.

Pick of the Week - COL to win at KC

EPL Handicapping: Betting Advice on this Week's Fixtures

By El Chupa
It's probably worth pointing out at this point that El Chupa and El Luchador have slightly different betting strategies.

El Luchador likes to go for the big fish. He trolls the deep water for the big catches, i.e., low percentage wagers with high payouts. His balls are large.

El Chupa lacks the intestinal fortitude of his mentor and instead looks for high percentage wagers that pay less-than-even odds. This can still be a substantial percentage of the original wager (50-90%) but certainly not double the money or better. Slow and steady is his motto.

This tends to result in El Luchador going for parlays that will pay big when they come in, while El Chupa looks for parlays that are virtually sure things (if there is such a thing) but offer less of a reward. It also means El Chupa is VERY judicious about the straight bets he makes. El Luchador? Not so much. . .

This also means that El Chupa often uses his statistical acumen, such as it is, to identify matches one should AVOID, as well as matches that look like high percentage wagers. When he can find a match he think is both a solid wager AND +100 or better odds, he is VERY happy.

So, on to this week's picks.

Everton at Portsmouth - This one is intriguing as Everton is being given only -115, practically begging you to put $15 on what looks like a mismatch. We don't like Everton's defense at all, they're giving up too many goals. And they haven't earned a single point away from home. But Portsmouth looks so freaking helpless that it's hard to predict when they will break out of their funk. It certainly will be at home, right? But against Everton? We think not. This match could also make one game of a parlay, as the -115 will help boost your payout if you pick a DEFINITE mismatch like Burnley at Spurs, which we think will result in Spurs demolishing the visiting side. Currently, our book is paying +140 on a two-game parlay of Everton and Spurs.

Aston Villa at Blackburn - This match is intriguing as we have Villa rated very high in the power rankings, and the +120 odds are attractive. However, our data also tells us that Blackburn doesn't give up shots, doesn't give up shots on goal, and doesn't give up corners. They are right at the league average for GA with 8. So Villa has their work cut out for them. El Chupa will be very tempted to look at this one closely and take a straight bet on one of these two teams.

Arsenal at Fulham - It's tempting to think Fulham will play Arsenal tough at Craven Cottage (coolest freaking name ever), but we think Arsenal will overpower the homeside and quite possibly when by a two-goal margin. We've been unimpressed with Fulham so far, and think that they look like goals will be hard to come by. They only have 16 SOG all season and only Burnley is worse with 13 (the league average is 27). The over is not paying well, and we can't see Fulham winning a goal-fest. This would be a good match for a parlay.

Upset of the week: Man U at Stoke - Do we think Stoke will beat Man U? No. But at +675, wtf? Put up $5. Man U is going to give up goals this year, and they will lose one or two more matches to the likes of Burnley. So, trust your gut, or not, whatever. Fuck Man U.

LA at Columbus Preview: Offensive Statistical Insights

By El Chupa
First off, I know you can't see the data given the technical limitations of free blogging, but if you click on the image at the left you'll be able to see a much larger version of it. Here's the skinny.

The chart gives us a break down of each team's leading offensive players. And as we've explained elsewhere, Pro and Pro/GM are Luchametric numbers that allow us to compare the overall offensive contributions or production of individual players. As you can see, Garey leads both teams with 4.05/GM, followed by Beckham, Schelotto, Buddle, Donovan and Lenhart. In Overall Production for the season, Schelotto is on top followed by Donovan, and both are light-years ahead of the rest of the players on both teams. This is not only a reflection of their individual ability, but also their role on their respective teams (the fact that their job is to score and create scoring chances for others so they will naturally have higher numbers than, say, the goalkeeper). Notice also that Schelotto leads both teams when it comes to how many minutes it takes him before he produces either a Goal or an Assist with 105. Garey is second at 110.5 followed by Donovan (115.31) and then Beckham (124.6).

And as we've discussed elsewhere, we think one of the leading indicators of the quality of a scorer is the percentage of Shots on Goal that player turns into actual goals, as a scorer's merit is determined not simply by how many opportunities he either creates on his own or are given to him by his teammates, but the rate at which he actually converts those opportunities into goals. And in this category, Schelotto is the winner, as over one-half of his SOGs turn in to actual goals. Give him an inch, he'll take a freaking mile. Donovan is second at .40.

The numbers tell us what most of us already know: these teams match up extremely closely offensively. Both Beckham and Garey lead their respective teams in Pro/GM but both have played only just over 600 minutes. This suggests that given more playing time, their numbers would drop back down a bit closer to the standard set by Schelotto and Donovan, if not lower. But clearly each team can get goals out of a number of different players and from a number of positions on the field.

One thing we like about the Crew, however, is that they have more players with over two goals each. This confirms what we've already known for a while: that the Crew is very balanced and deep when it comes to putting players on the pitch who can pressure the other team and get the ball in the back of the net (case in point: Lenhart coming off the bench). In a tight game, especially late in the game, this gives the Crew a definite advantage over the rest of the league and over LA, especially at home. It also speaks well for the team's prospects in the playoffs.

MLS Handicapping: San Jose at Colorado (Updated)

By El Chupa

Well, we blew it again. And lost money to boot. SJO obviously has COL's number and has gotten so deep in their heads that COL can't even manage a win at home. Beyond the obvious bad voodoo however, it's clear that COL has problems scoring, and that all it takes is a bad call here, a fluke hand-ball there, and you end up with a mere four goals from four PKs across two games and a mere two points earned per team. Even if COL makes the playoffs, we don't expect them to figure much in the road to the championship. And that's not sour grapes, we bear no ill-will to the Rapids. We just don't see how they'll get very far in the MLS's second season when they have to grind out wins even when they're home. Defense keeps you in games, but eventually you have to start scoring more goals then your opponents.

This is coming a bit late in the day and will be short and sweet. Take Colorado at -118 if you don't mind risking a bit for what we think is a high percentage wager (El Chupa hopes to make 50% tonight). Colorado is tough as hell at home. They don't allow goals, they don't even allow shots on goal, a category in which they lead the league with a shockingly low 81, WELL below the league average. The difference in the Luchametric is high and Colorado needs 3 pts to stay in the playoff picture. We thus think it's high time for COL to break through against San Jose and that they will. Pickens and Clark are probably still out, but Mastroeni will be back. The loss of Pickens is most troubling, but again, Burpo shouldn't face many shots, especially at home. San Jose is going from sea-level to a mile high, and their "resurgence" has been at home, not on the road. They absolutely stink on the road. Their recent form is not as good as you might think either. If you're worried about Pickens being out, take the draw.

Our prediction: SJO 1 Col 2.

LA vs Crew Preview: To Parity and Beyond!

By El Chupa
As the numbers to the left reveal (click to see a larger image), the Crew and LA are tied in virtually every category. The Crew have a narrow lead in total points, and points earned per game. And they have more home wins (HW), but they have only one more win overall than the Galaxy. The Crew have 38 Total Goals to the Galaxy's 35, and they both have virtually the same number of Shots and Shots on Goal. They also are basically tied when it comes to Shots on Goal per Game, Corners Taken, Shots on Goal Allowed, and Corners Against. QSHT is a raw measure of the number of SOGs above the league average that each team has created that were indeed high quality scoring chances, and again the difference is negligible. Most importantly, the Luchametric has them separated by a mere .3 of a STDEV. That amounts to a deadlock. Finally, it must be noted that LA's numbers don't reflect a full season with Beckham in the lineup.

This game will come down to tactics, individual match-ups, home field advantage, and whether each team performs to its full potential. We fear the Crew are staring another draw in the face, with which they should probably be satisfied. The pressure to send a message to LA and the league by earning a full three points is high, however, and the Crew are running out of home games. The pressure not to give up three points, however, is even higher. We'll be doing a comparison of each team's scorers later today or tomorrow.

EPL Statistics: Chelsea's Dominance by the Numbers

By El Chupa
We're going to try and dedicate the rest of the week to providing as much insight into the Crew's epic match with LA as possible, including suggested cheers for the Nordecke Hoards to unleash on Beckham and his fellow swine from the Galaxy. But today, were offering a few insights on Chelsea's dominance of the EPL.

First, they lead the league in PTS obviously, but also in Wins, and Fewest Goals Allowed (tie with Man City at a mere 3). They also have allowed the fewest Goals Against per Game (.5), and lead the league in Goal Differential at 12. They have put 8.33 Shots on Goal per game, which is well over the league average of 5.17 and behind only Man U and Liverpool (8.5 and 9.5 respectively).

Finally, they've allowed only 17 Corners Against (the league average is 32.8) and perhaps most telling of all, they've allowed only 9 Shots on Goal Against all year. The league average is 29.10. That's right, people, over six full games, or 540+ minutes of play, six teams have managed to create a mere nine SOGs. That means each team really only managed to produce one serious chance at a goal in each game. How the F do you beat a team when you can't manage more than one or two decent chances while they are literally ASSAULTING your goal? Overall Chelsea has allowed only 33 Shots Against all season. Compare this to the league average of 78.65 and you realize just how dominant are their midfield and back four. Another useful point of comparison is second-place Man U, who have allowed twice as many Shots overall at 66.

My friends, it's not simply that Chelsea can score, the numbers suggest that their midfield and defense are the best in the league, hands down. If you give up a goal to Chelsea, you are behind the eight-ball. Yes, it's early, and yes, Chelsea has not faced all the top teams yet. But over one month of play and six games, they've been incredibly consistent and incredibly difficult to beat. Even if Man U is still a contender, they're no longer the team to beat in the EPL. The rest of Europe better look out when it comes to Champions League play.

Finally, Chelsea leads the rest of the league in the vaunted Luchametric by 2.24 STDEVs in overall production, and 2.13 STDEVs in Pro/GM. Man U is second with 1.67 and 1.57 respectively. This puts Chelsea one-half or .5 STDEVs ahead of Man U, which is rather close but still a significant difference, and a minimum of one full STDEV over their next-closest rivals: Man City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal. This means they have played a serious cut above not just the rest of the league, but the very best teams in the league. Word.

EPL Power Rankings: Duh

By El Chupa
Seriously. Chelsea. Duh. Look for some statistical insights tomorrow. Hopefully I'll have time. Blog life. Columbus 'till I die. Go Crew. Huge game Saturday. Get you ass there if you can. Tell Beckham to suck it.

MLS Power Rankings: Crew on Top with Game in Hand

By El Chupa
El Luchador's MLS Power Rankings have been fully updated through yesterday's Crew draw at CHI. No time for analysis right now. Just bask in the beauty of the numbers. Columbus has a game in hand and maintains at least .79 of a STDEV above everyone in the league except for LA and CHI. We think the top three will certainly figure in the final four teams competing for the championship. Word.

Man City at Man U: The Thrill! The Abject Despair! The Orgasmatic Rush of Confliction!

By El Chupa

El Chupa and El Luchador LOATHE Man U. But El Chupa found himself in emotional turmoil as his wager on Man U went from won to lost to won to lost to won in the freaking final minute of extra time. Holy shit. The only thing better is sex...but just barely. With Man U's win and a win on a last-minute wager on LA over TOR El Chupa had a good weekend. But I still hate 'em.

EPL Results: The Thrill and the Agony

By El Chupa

Well, Burnley crushed Sunderland. We aren't afraid to admit that we got that one wrong. But El Chupa won his Parlay of Arsenal and Aston Villa, Liverpool won, and he has put his money on hated Man U in tomorrow's Manchester Derby as well. Two things: it's early in the season and the numbers will shift as the data comes in. We're about 1/8 th of the way through the season and Dr. Bumba and El Chupa have concluded we probably need to get to somewhere between 10 and 15 games before the Luchametric becomes a bit more stable. Second, we've decide that any game where the two teams are separated by .5 of a standard deviation or less is to close to call. If one STDEV or higher separates the two teams, we're fairly confident that it marks a significant separation. Accordingly, El Chupa looks for Parlays involving games between teams separated by 1.0 STDEVs or higher, especially when the favored team is at home. He also looks for games where the higher ranked team is going into a venue where the bookmakers are giving too much credit to the home team. Of course, Sunderland was one such instance. But we maintain that once we get enough data in, upsets like the one today at Turf Moor will be fewer in number.

EPL Predictions and Handicapping: It's Parlay Time!

By El Chupa

We've already told you about Sunderland at Burnley. Here's the rest of our offerings for this weekend's matches.

Aston Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal, Man U, - Parlay some combination of these four teams. Right now, a three team parlay of Aston, Liverpool and Arsenal pays +150. We think that's a great return on a very high percentage wager.

Stoke at Bolton - El Chupa thinks this one is too close. Dr. Bumba says take Bolton as they've got a great coach and they're at home. El Chupa thinks a draw is likely and must admit that it pays well at +250, but he hates to wager on draws.

Spurs at Chelsea - Chelsea has to draw or lose eventually, and eventually they will draw or lose at home. Is this the weekend? We thought Spurs looked very good vs Man U and that with a bounce here or there it could have been a draw or even a Spurs win. Can they go into Stamford Bridge and come away with one to three points? If you're a gambler, you might throw the dice on this one. But we still have not seen very many signs that Chelsea is vulnerable, especially at home. It might be low scoring, but El Chupa predicts a Chelsea win.

Blackburn at Everton -Everton is favored but we think this might be closer than the books think. Whether it's worth a toss at +360 is the question.

The rest are too tight for El Chupa's pocketbook.