Arsenal vs Man City: The Mother of All Matches -- Take the Over

By M.J.D.

Man City takes its UEFA Champions League aspirations into Emirates on Saturday (12:30 FSC) in a match that it absolutely has to win. Unfortunately for City, Arsenal is reeling from losses to Spurs and lowly Wigan, and although its EPL title chances are virtually nil, the Gunners will no doubt be hungry for a home win and an outside chance at overtaking Man U in the two spot in the league by season's end.  We've updated the Power Rankings and looked at the stats and the odds, and here's what we know.

Man City will have to attack, and they are capable of scoring goals on the road. They've scored 31 AGs this season.  Statistically the two teams are virtually even.  But Arsenal does have more total Shots and SOGs, and the Gunners allow fewer SHTA and SOGA.  But in our measure of Quality Shots on Goal, which gives a team credit for the ratio of goals it scores given the number of SHTs and SOGs it takes as compared to the rest of the league, Man City has a substantial advantage.  For example, the average team in the EPL earns .26 goals for every SOG it produces, or 26%.  But Man City scores 37% of the time it manages to create a SOG opportunity--a rather draw-dropping difference.  This means that the scoring opportunities it creates are of a considerably better quality than most of the league.  Arsenal's is up there as well at 34%, but the bottom line is that the Gunners will have to treat City's attack with respect or they will find themselves in a knife fight.

This has the potential to be an extremely tense and entertaining match, with lots of goals.  Which brings us to the odds.  The odds for Arsenal winning range from -141 to +104.  The odds for Man City winning range from +240 to +330.  If you can find a book that will give you positive odds on Arsenal, take it.  If you like to gamble rather than simply  make sound wagers, take City.  We can't imagine this will be a draw.  Finally, there are a range of over bets available from the European and British sportsbooks.  In the States, where the over is generally always at  +2.5, the odds are -140.  We think the over is without a doubt the best bet on this one.  And if you can manage to place a wager some place on the over at +3.0, which some books have in the +100 range or higher, do it.

Chelsea Blows It; Man U Back in Contention; Spurs Surge; Man City Must Run the Table

By MJD

We're still in shock over both Man U's victory at Eastlands and Spurs' win at home over the Blues.  Certainly both teams were capable of winning, and Spurs' win certainly was well-deserved.  The shock comes from having to stare another Man U league title in the face when we had been hoping all season that Chelsea would finally unseat Ferguson at the top of the table.  The facts are that Chelsea blew it, and few prognosticators thought it would happen.  And now Man U has to face Spurs at home while Chelsea must go to Anfield and earn three points against Liverpool.  Both teams' other games should earn them 6 points each, so today's events really have shaken things up.  The drama in the weeks ahead connecting Chelsea's fate to Man U's to Spurs' to City's gives fans of the EPL much to savor in the last four weeks of the season.

Spurs' destiny is now in their own hands, and should they earn points at Man U and Man City, they will surge right on into a European tour--and deservedly so.  Four points out of these two matches combined with wins against Bolton and Burnley would get them to 74.  Man City has games left with Arsenal, Spurs, and Villa before finishing at home against West Ham.  We earlier argued that City would drop points to Man U and Arsenal but beat Birmingham and then run the table to finish out the season.  They're still in a position to do as we predicted.  The problem is that Spurs have been much better than predicted, picking up six points when they weren't expected by anyone to do so.   This means that the game at home against Spurs is now an absolute must win for City, as they need 12 PTS out of their remaining four matches including a win at Arsenal.  12 Pts would get them to 74 leaving Spurs at 73 even if the latter win their other three matches.  Any slip whatsoever by City in the coming weeks and 4th place will elude them--unless Spurs' luck runs out and they come crashing back to earth.  Spurs too must win at City to keep the dream of the Champions League alive, and losing at Man U would certainly put them in a difficult position.  Here's hoping fans in the states get to see as much of the epic battle for fourth place as possible in the coming weeks.

Man City, Spurs, Reds: Who's Going on a European Tour?

By El Chupa

Last week we looked at Liverpool's chances at overtaking Spurs and sneaking in to the fourth spot in the league.  Our conclusion was that Liverpool actually had a chance given how much easier was their remaining schedule.  In our analysis, we ignored Man City, not because we thought they had a worse chance than the Reds, but because regardless of what City accomplished, Liverpool had to overtake Spurs to make it to fourth.  We were also focused on refuting Rafa's claim that the Scousers still had a chance to earn the automatic bid to the Champions League.

Well, this weekend's fixtures have changed things, and we thought we'd update our prognostication.  So today we'll look at Spurs, Man City, AND Liverpool and make our prediction as to who, in fact, will attain the coveted fourth invitation to Europe's premier club competition.

We pointed out last time that Spurs had a very tough schedule compared to Liverpool, including games against Chelsea, Man U, Man City and Arsenal.  And, well, they still do.  To top it off, Spurs were soundly beaten by Sunderland last weekend, squandering an opportunity to pick up points that would have helped them immensely.  Lucky for them, Liverpool continued to torment their fans, managing a draw with a solid but surely weaker Birmingham.  Meanwhile, City absolutely THUMPED Burnley.  But Man City fans have to look forward to games against Man U (derby), Arsenal, Spurs and Villa.  The only tough game the Reds have left is against Chelsea. 

So, last weekend's fixtures put City at 59, followed by Spurs at 58 and Liverpool at a a distant 55 (notice how large the draw with Birmingham looms for the Reds).  Both City and Spurs have a game in hand over LFC. However, as we've indicated, Liverpool has by far the much easier schedule.  Liverpool's remaining opponents have earned on average 1.19 PTS/GM. Spurs' have averaged 1.69 followed by Man City's at 1.44.  This season, a team in the EPL has picked up, on average, 1.36 PTS/GM..  The table below summarizes the situation (if you can't make it out, click on it).

The final column reduces or increases each team's projected points based on the relative strength of that team's remaining opponents.  Notice that if each team earns the same number of points over its remaining games that it has all year, Man City squeaks in ahead of Spurs.  If we take into consideration the strength of each club's respective schedules, however, (at least from a numerical standpoint) City and Spurs finish in a dead heat.  Neither scenario looks good for the Reds.  Now that we've crunched the numbers, here's what we really think is going to happen.

Man City will pick up wins at home against Birmingham, Spurs, Villa, and West Ham.  They'll drop games to both Man U and the Gunners.   This will give them 12 PTS.  Spurs will manage only 1 PT over three games against Man U, Chelsea, and Arsenal.  They'll lose to City but thump both Bolton and Burnley.  This will give them a very disappointing 7 PTS.  Meanwhile, if we give the Reds a generous 12 points, with wins in four of their last five games, they still come up short.  Final standings in the race for fourth: Man City 71; Scousers 67; Spurs 65.  We actually expect the Reds to draw one of those wins, but feel magnanimous today.  And of course if Spurs go up to Manchester and manage to beat a surging City squad with its eyes on the prize, that swing in three points will pull them even with City.  It should be an interesting match.

EPL Handicapping: Wayne Rooney is Out, So Chelsea Will Win

Wayne Rooney's injury Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League has not yet moved the odds on Man U to win the EPL or this Saturday's Battle Royale at home with Chelsea, and this presents an opportunity for savvy punters.

At 2.70, Chelsea to win away at Manchester Saturday is a solid bet. Here's why the Luchametric says do it:

1.) Without Rooney, Man U Feeble. With 26 goals, Rooney has scored more than any player in the EPL, and he is Man U's main offensive threat. It's difficult to see how they have much juice without him.
2) Travel.  Man U flew 1,000 miles midweek for their disappointing 2-1 loss v Bayern Munchen Tuesday, whilst Chelsea have been training comfortably at home all week and have just a short jaunt down the road for Saturday's lunchtime match.
3) Momentum. While Man U lost on a heartbreaking last minute goal in that UEFA Champions League match in Munich, Chelsea are coming off their impressive 7-1 bitch slap of the previously respectable Aston Villa on Saturday.
4) Luchametric. There is little that separates these two on the Luchametric, but Chelsea have the edge. The Blues have a total Luchametric score of 8.2 versus Man U's 7.7. What's more, Chelsea have more offensive potential statistically than Ferguson's boys with 7.4 shots on goal per game versus Man U's 6.8, and Chelsea have a 20 to 18 advantage on total shots per game. Chelsea only allows 2.88 SOG Against per Game while Man allows 3.97.  What's more, last November at Stamford Bridge, Man U managed only 2 SOG the entire game, although they did put much pressure on the Blues, amassing 20 Shots and 7 corners.  Look for Chelsea again to bend but not break, especially with Rooney out.
5) God. He hates Manchester United for their conceit.

El Luchador's pick: Bet on Chelsea to win. Do it.

Why Liverpool Just Might Make It Back to the Champions League

By El Chupa
Rafa Benitez is claiming that Liverpool Football Club still have their eyes on the fourth spot in the EPL and an automatic bid to the UEFA Champions League.  After Aston Villa's utter annihilation at Stamford Bridge this weekend, it would appear that Man City and Tottenham are the only teams standing in Liverpool's way. Here's why Tottenham will not foil Benitez's plan. 

Currently, Spurs are in the fourth spot with 58 points and Liverpool are two places behind with 54 (Man City are fifth at 56).  Spurs have a game in hand with seven left to play.  The Reds have only six games to play.  At first glance, it might look like Rafa is again blowing smoke, trying to keep the Kop's drunken fans at bay, keep his job, and keep his players from phoning it in the rest of the season.

A quick look at the numbers suggests that Rafa is, in fact, ALL smoke and no fire, but looks can be deceiving. Spurs have averaged 1.87 PTS/Game while the Reds have averaged 1.69.  This projects out to Spurs earning 13 PTS by the end of the season, and LFC earning 10.  This would get Spurs to 71 PTS and Liverpool to 64.  On the face of it, the game-in-hand Spurs have over Liverpool looms rather large, as the mere 4 PTS that separate the two clubs now are really a distortion, and Rafa's impression that he won't be on the job market in a few weeks illusory.

However, before Scouser-haters rejoice, take a look at each team's remaining schedule.  Spurs face 7 teams who together represent 355 PTS earned this year in the EPL.  Liverpool face six teams representing a mere 232 PTS.  Spurs will face, on average, a team "worth" about 51 PTS.  Currently, Aston Villa are at 51 PTS in the league table.  Liverpool, on the other hand, will face, on average, a team "worth" about 38 PTS, such as Fulham or Stoke.  To make matters worse for Spurs, Tottenham will play Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal, AND Man City (who are right behind them in the standings).  Liverpool have only Chelsea left to play from the top of the table.  In short, would you rather play Villa seven times in a row, or Fulham six times?

As much as the experts at the Luchametric Institute hate to admit it, Reds fans still have hope of some small shred of redemption at the end of the season.  Spurs fans, on the other hand, have much to hope for, and even more to worry about.

EPL Handicapping: The Beauty of Relegation

By El Chupa

There will be some great football this weekend in the EPL.  Here are some matches to watch and why:

Villa at Chelsea (10:45 A.M. EDT ESPN Classic) - Chelsea absolutely need three points to stay in the running with Arsenal and Man U for the league title. They also will want revenge for the loss at Villa Park early in the season. Villa are looking to secure a spot next season in Europe in either the Champions or Europa leagues and need three points if they hope to steal the fourth spot in the league from Spurs. Villa have given up fewer goals on the road than at home this season, and they are tied with Man U for the fewest GA in the league (25). If anyone in the league can keep Chelsea and Drogba at bay for 90 minutes at Stamford Bridge, its the Villains.  Punters should avoid this one, however, or throw the dice for the draw or maybe the under.  The odds on Chelsea aren't worth it.

Fulham at Hull City (6 P.M. Fox Soccer Channel; delayed )- Given how superior a team they are to the Tigers, Fulham is being given odds that look generous at first glance (+220) .  But Fulham is out of contention for the top seven in the league and are playing on the road against a team fighting to avoid relegation.  If Fulham shows up, this should be a fierce contest.  But if you think the Tigers are going to fight like hell against a team already thinking about the beaches of Spain, Hull at +140 is not a bad punt.

Everton at Wolves (5:00 P.M. EDT Fox Soccer Plus; delayed) - Everton have an outside chance at the fourth spot in the league, and certainly are looking to make it to the Europa league at worst.  But they need points every time out from now until the end of the season to do so.  Wolves, on the other hand, are in danger of relegation, and they need points just to survive--especially at home.  Everton are the superior side by far.  But they will be without Donovan, and it will be interesting to see if the Toffees continue to surge without the American star whose arrival coincided with the revival of the team's fortunes.  We like Everton at +105, but it's not a sure thing against a Wolves team whose last three games have gone quite well and who have their backs to the wall.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal, Spurs

By El Chupa

El Chupa is back after a long hiatus with the updated EPL Power Rankings.  There are no real surprises.  Chelsea is on top followed by Man U and then Arsenal.  Given Chelsea's game in hand over Man U, our readers should not be surprised at the difference between our rankings and the actual point standings. Plus, the difference between the two teams is negligible.


The differences among the top three are also minor.  Chelsea is about .25 of a StandDev above Arsenal, which is not much.  Spurs are a solid fourth but our rankings reveal a small but significant gap between the top three and Spurs.  This is largely due, we think, to the difference between the top three and Spurs in goals scored.  The top three all are at or above 2.3 Goals per Game while Spurs has managed only 1.79.  The bottom line for Spurs fans, however, is that the teams lurking below them are all extremely close in the rankings suggesting strongly that they all have a legitimate shot at the fourth spot and a European tour next year--especially if they have any home games against Spurs left in the schedule (we don't have time to check that out at the moment).

Finally, TOFFEES!  Everton is really too far behind in PTS to crack the top four, but our rankings show what anyone watching Everton at least since Donovan has joined them if not earlier know: the Toffees are tough and virtually a different team than they were when we went on hiatus.  At that time, their LM ranking was in the negative and they were well down in the standings.  Now they are a rock solid fifth and ranked ahead of teams ahead of them in the actual PTS standings including Liverpool.  We stand by our rankings.  Everton beat Chelsea and Man U in February before their no-doubt-disappointing loss to Spurs at White Hart Lane later in the month.  Teams going to Everton the rest of the season will face a tough opponent in excellent form. We dig it.

EPL Handicapping: Aston Villa over Hull City

By El Chupacabra
Villa over Hull at Villa Park (no U.S. TV). Do it. Here's why.

This is not a terribly interesting weekend in EPL betting-wise or even just in terms of good matches. Regarding the latter, Chelsea at Man City could be a good one to watch (its the only one that looks remotely interesting), but we think Chelsea will choke off City's attack and then dutifully put in a goal or two (or three). But other than this contest, there are no marquee match ups.

Hull at Villa is the best bet of the weekend. Villa at home at -220 earns you just under 50% and its the surest thing you'll find this weekend at decent odds. Remember, look for home teams you think have the best chance of winning and try to stay around a 50% return or better. Villa leads Hull in the Luchametric by over 1.0 StandDevs. Hull's recent form is definitely better than Villa, but Villa is at home looking for a sure three points from a league bottom-feeder. What's more, Villa are one of four finalists in the Carling Cup and have not lost at home since the opening day of the season, winning four of their last six matches in front of their own fans.

OUR PREDICTION: Villa to win.

MONEY LINE: Villa-220 Hull +755 Draw +358

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Villa - The Villans have an advantage of nearly 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicative of a significant competitive difference between any two teams.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Villa played at Portsmouth Tuesday in the Carling Cup. Hull has rested since last weekend's match away. Still, Hull has to travel to 137 miles or 2.5 hours by bus to get to Villa Park.

MOTIVATION: Draw - Villa's recent form and position in the table give them all the incentive in the world to grab three points and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Hull look to continue their recent form and continue to climb out of relegation and erase the nightmare of the first few weeks of the season.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Hull. Hull has earned nine points in their last six matches, Villa seven. Hull has two wins and two draws in their last four.

INJURIES: Draw - Both teams have have a few injuries but no major absences to report.

EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea

By El Chupacabra

The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's fixtures. As always you may download an Excel file with the data here. Chelsea is on top (duh) followed by Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. Chelsea has opened quite a bit of space in the official table and in the rankings. They are now nearly a full StandDev (.92) over second place Man U. We have Arsenal ahead of Spurs by .37 of a Stand Dev. We think the nine goals Spurs scored against Wigan were a fluke and that they'll move further down the rankings in the weeks ahead.

Chelsea's dominance is most obvious on defense. They allow the fewest Goals Against per game in the league (.57), the fewest Shots on Goal Against per game in the league (2.5) and the lowest percentage of SOGA to SHTs Against (.26). This latter stat tells us that only 26% of the oppositions' shots are actually on goal, giving us a sense of how few quality chances Chelsea actually allows its opponents (the league average is 37%)

They also lead the league in Recent Form, and have now beaten Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. The season is far from over, and Man U lurks five points behind with a home game against Chelsea still to come. But seriously people, the Blues have a shot at the EPL crown, the Champions league and the FA cup. I'd still take Barca over Chelsea at this point, but what a match it would be.

Arsenal and Chelsea Outpace the Pack in Updated Power Rankings

By El Chupacabra
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Monday's match at Anfield. Arsenal is back on top followed, again extremely closely, by Chelsea. Man U and Man City round out the top four but are significantly back of the top two.

Notice that a mere .16th of a StandDev separates the Gunners from the Blues. Chelsea has more points and more wins, but Arsenal has more goals (as always, you can look at the comprehensive data here). The Goal Differential of both teams is nearly identical: 22 for Arsenal; 21 for Chelsea. Arsenal has played one game less than Chelsea, and this accounts for the difference in wins to some extent.

Before you Blues fans blow a gasket, consider that the difference between the two teams is really negligible, at least statistically, but it comes down to this: Arsenal is a better offensive club, Chelsea the better defensive club. And Chelsea is probably more balanced overall.
The Luchametric weighs a number of different variables, and it could be that we need to look at the defensive side of the model. We have a measure for Quality Scoring Chances, for example, and in this measure Arsenal is clearly superior. But we're still looking at comprenhesive statistical measures of a team's defense.

We can say this, however: A full 42 % of the Gunners' Shots on Goal become goals, compared to 30% for Chelsea. That's a 25% difference. Also, 32% of Arsenal's SOG Against become Goals Against, compared to 25% for Chelsea (the league average is 25%; the league leaders are Villa with an impressively low 18%). Arsenal allows 1.27 GA per game, while Chelsea allows a mere .67 GA per game. And Chelsea allows only 2.67 SOGA per game, while Arsenal allows 4.0 SOGA. That's fairly significant. Chelsea is unbelievably stingy. You may have noticed on Sunday if you caught the game against Man U that Chelsea had the usual four man back line, but then frequently had another two men behind that. They were in essence playing a sort of 2-4-3-1 or you could just call it a 5-4-1. This shows both their respect for Man U and the genius of Ancelotti.

At this point, given the history of the league and of the big four, its understandable why so much attention still gets paid to Liverpool, who really are in trouble at this point, and that so many people continue to doubt Wenger's confidence that his club is playing for the title. But the evidence is clear: this year, barring injuries (Bendtner), Chelsea and Arsenal are the cream of the league. We look forward to the November 29 match at Emirates against Chelsea. This will be the true test of the two teams and should be some outstanding football. The league's best attacking club against the league's most balanced and most stingy club. At Stamford bridge, we'd take Chelsea, but at Emirates, Arsenal will give the Blues all they can handle.

EPL Power Rankings: Blues on Top

By El Chupacabra

The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Wednesday's West Ham v Villa fixture. Chelsea is on top followed EXTREMELY closely by Arsenal. Man U and Man City round out the top four.

Chelsea's nine wins has put them on top of the official league table and at the top of our power rankings. They also allow very few Goals, Shots, and Shots on Goal compared to the rest of the league. Arsenal has scored a league-leading 32 total goals which has contributed much to it's place in the standings. The Gunners have a game in hand and with Chelsea and Man U playing next weekend, Arsenal will have a chance to pass Man U in the official table when they visit Wolves.

Other movement worth noting. Villa have dropped below Spurs as a result of their loss to the Hammers. West Ham itself is much higher in our table than in the official table. We stand by our rankings. The Hammers are better than the results they've achieved thus far.

Also, Portsmouth has climbed out of the cellar and perhaps have turned things around. We shall see.

We'll have more to report once we crunch the numbers.

EPL Handicapping: Gunners over Spurs

By El Chupacabra
Gunners over Spurs (8:30 EDT on ESPN2). Do it. Here's why.

The odds aren't great, but we think talk of Spurs going into Emirates and earning the draw, let alone the win, is mistaken. Here's the key: Spurs' defense is far weaker. They allow far more Shots, Shots on Goal, and Corners Against than do the Gunners. Yes, the Spurs score goals, but they've scored far fewer than Wenger's XI. And in our measure of Quality Chances Created, the Gunners are far superior. For example, Arsenal scores a goal 40% of the time when they create a SOG compared to the Spurs' 31% (the league average is 28%). And the Gunners lead Spurs in Goals per game, 3.22 to 2.10. They've both allowed the same number of Goals Against per Game, which may speak to the Gunners' goalkeeping woes. Regardless, the rest of the numbers reveal how loose Spurs is at the back. Overall, we consider Arsenal to be a better side by far and the cream of the EPL at this moment (along with Chelsea). We're thinking Gunners 3 Spurs 1.

OUR PREDICTION: Arsenal to Win.

MONEY LINE: Arsenal -180 Spurs +500 Draw +275

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Arsenal - The Gunners have an advantage of 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicating a significant competitive difference between any two teams. Further, in the raw metric measuring production per game Arsenal are nearly twice as good as Spurs. And our measure of Quality Scoring Chances has them nearly three StandDevs over Tottenham. Look for Arsenal to light Spurs up at home on Saturday.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Both teams played at home midweek in the Carling Cup. And this is a North London Derby, so both teams will be rested and won't have to travel. But Arsenal is at home and will still have a slight-to-significant advantage.

MOTIVATION Draw: This is a Derby and both teams will be up for the game. Spurs want to prove they are a top four team. But Keane has run his mouth off, and I suspect the home fans at Emirates will let him know it, the twit.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Arsenal. The Gunners have earned thirteen points in their last six matches, Spurs a mere 7. And Arsenal just beat Liverpool. Keane is going to eat his words.

INJURIES: Advantage: Spurs - Arsenal just got their starting keeper back--and just lost him for three more weeks. Almunia has been in Wenger's dog house but might get the chance to regain his manager's confidence on Saturday, given that Mannone made a rather egregious error against West Ham last Sunday, leading to a goal that started the Hammers' comeback, which resulted in Arsenal blowing a two-goal lead and letting a sure three points slip away.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Gunners Still on Top

By El Chupacabra
The EPL Power Rankings have been updated in time for this weekend's fixtures. As always, you can access the data here. Arsenal is still on top followed by Chelsea, Man U and Man City. The top two teams are within .5 Standard Deviations of each other, indicating relative competitive equality. The Gunners have created some significant daylight between themselves and Man City, Liverpool and Spurs, indicating they are considerably better than the latter three teams.

Yeah, yeah, our rankings are different than the actual standings--that's the point. Our metric takes far more variables into consideration than do the standings, which only consider and weight wins and draws. Our rankings are thus more accurate, in our humble opinion.

Notice too that our bottom three are different from the official standings as well. Don't count West Ham out just yet people. Even the talking heads on Super Sunday think they are a better club than they've shown thus far, as the draw against Arsenal at home indicates. One final observation worth noting, we've got Stoke rather far down our table. Will look at it more closely and report back in the next few days. Full disclosure: El Chupa roots for the Gunners. Boo YAH!

EPL Handicapping: Manchester City to Win Over Fulham at Home

By El Luchador
Manchester City are at home against Fulham this weekend at a critical time, and the Luchametric combined with our learned analysis points toward a victory. Despite the likely absence of Adebayor, Bellamy and Toure, City will close this deal. Do it.
OUR PREDICTION: Manchester City to Win.
MONEY LINE: Man City -222 TIE +300 Fulham +625
LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage City. Almost 1 standard deviation separates these two teams as measured by the patented Luchametric power ranking system. On offense, City are averaging 2 goals per game, and Fulham are fourth from the bottom of the league in goals scored per game at less than 1. Also, Fulham are sound and fury signifying nothing: American Clint Dempsey is hitting 3.25 shots per game this season, the fourth highest rate. But he hasn’t scored a single goal.

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage City: City have been home for two weeks having faced neighboring Wigan just 30 miles down the road in a 1-1 tie on Oct. 18. Fulham will have played 3 games in 7 days having faced Hull City at home Monday (2-0 win) and AC Roma (2-1 loss) at home on Thursday in Europa Cup action before traveling 200 miles for this match at Man City.
HOME –v- AWAY FORM – Advantage City. City have not lost or tied a single home match all season in all competition (3-0 at home in EPL play). Fulham meanwhile have won only one game on the road, a lame, 1-0 victory over the even lamer Portsmouth on Sept. 15.
MOTIVATION Draw: It's early in the season yet, so both these teams have plenty to play for and have had good recent form. Fulham are coming off a convincing 2-0 home win against Hull on Monday. As Liverpool falter, City are in a position to vault into the top 4 with a win.
HISTORY Advantage City: City lead in all competitions, 23-13-17. City and Fulham have already met once this season with City winning 2-1 Sept. 23 at home in the Carling Cup.
RECENT FORM Advantage City: City – TTWWLW (11), Fulham – WTWLLL (7). Man City’s only loss this season has come against top flight opposition on the road: A 4-3 away loss to rival Manchester United on Sept. 20. City have won their last 6 EPL matches, and 12 of their last 13 games. City go for the win at home. They have gone 26 home games without a draw, the 10th-longest streak in EPL history.
INJURIES Draw:This is where City will prove that they have depth. CITY OUT E Adebayor (Ankle/Foot) Injury; C Bellamy Groin Strain; K Toure Ankle/Foot; N Onuoha Thigh Muscle Strain; Robinho Ankle/Foot; B Mwaruwari Hip/Thigh. FULHAM OUT: D Stockdale Knee Injury; S Davies Ankle/Foot; T Kallio Achilles Heal.

If your children need new shoes, take the money you have saved and invest it in this match. Use the proceeds to buy the little rug rats two pair. This is a lock: Man City to win Sunday over Fulham.

EPL Handicapping: Wigan at Hull

By El Chupacabra

A lot of games this weekend in the EPL, including matches Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Here's our best pick for Saturday's fixtures.

Take Wigan to Win at Hull
The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that Wigan are the better side, with a higher production score that amounts to a difference in standard deviation of .75. This puts the two teams rather close, especially with Hull's home advantage. However, Wigan have an advantage in Shots, Shots on Goal, Goals Against, Shots on Goals Against, and Goal Differential, suggesting they'll get more opportunities to score. Hull is giving up 2.71 Goals per Game, which is close to the league average for TOTAL goals scored by each team per game. Of course, 6 of those goals were scored by Liverpool in a single match. Regardless, we don't expect Hull to threaten much, and Wigan scored 3 goals last week on Chelsea. Both teams will contest this one fiercely, as both could use three points -- Wigan to regain the form they showed last year and to prove that last week's defeat of Chelsea was no fluke, and Hull to keep from losing four in a row, which would have them staring relegation in the face after only 8 games. Oh, and Phil "The Douche" Brown's job is on the line. This could mean the players play hard to save his job. . . or it COULD meand that they phone it in so he gets fired and upper management can get someone to replace him that the players actually like, respect and for whom they will perform better.

MONEY LINE
Wigan +150 TIE +210 Hull +150

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage Wigan: Wigan .16; Hull -3.06 or .75 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Draw: Both teams have had a week off, and Wigan are only traveling about 125 miles.

INSPIRATION Advantage Wigan: Both teams have something to play for, but Hull are downright dysfunctional. Wigan want to regain the form that last year had them threatening to place in the top 7. They also need to prove they can win away from home and that the wins against Villa and Chelsea were legit. Hull is staring relegation in the face and needs to turn things around toot sweet. But here's the difference: Hull's dressing room has never recovered from last year's mid year antics by Manager Phil Brown. And the Scotsman this week admitted that he does not have the complete confidence of his men, calling on some to exhibit more "bravery."

INJURIES Advantage Wigan: Wigan are fully fit; Hull have some minor injury problems.

HISTORY Advantage Wigan: All time results in all competitions: Wigan 7 Draw 6 Hull 4

RECENT FORM Advantage Wigan: Wigan LLLWLW (6 points out of 6) Hull LWDLLL (4 points out of 6)

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Luchametric 3.0

By El Chupa
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's match between Sunderland and Wolves. We've simplified the chart to make it easier for our loyal readers. The chart now provides the Luchametric score, the number of Standard Deviations above or below the mean (Z Score) of the club's Luchametric score, and finally, the actual number of points the club has earned thus far to allow for comparisons.

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are now making the Luchametric data available to our readers as an Excel spreadsheet. Look at the top of column two to the right to find the link. The MLS data will be available later today.

No real changes this week, except that Man U is gaining on Chelsea, and there is now little daylight separating the two clubs. Also, Spurs are lower than both Man City and Arsenal, in spite of being ahead in the actual standings. We stand by our rankings.

Finally, we have some bad news for Burnley fans, something we've observed for the last few weeks but have held back commenting on. In spite of their nine points, Burnely lag far behind the rest of the league in the Luchametric's overall measure of production. In our view, Burnley actually are in grave danger of being relegated. We don't see them earning many points the rest of the year given the overall numbers unless things start to pick up for them and toot sweet. They are far below the league averages for Shots, Shots on Goal, and Goals Scored. You heard it here first.

EPL Handicapping: Betting Advice on this Week's Fixtures

By El Chupa
It's probably worth pointing out at this point that El Chupa and El Luchador have slightly different betting strategies.

El Luchador likes to go for the big fish. He trolls the deep water for the big catches, i.e., low percentage wagers with high payouts. His balls are large.

El Chupa lacks the intestinal fortitude of his mentor and instead looks for high percentage wagers that pay less-than-even odds. This can still be a substantial percentage of the original wager (50-90%) but certainly not double the money or better. Slow and steady is his motto.

This tends to result in El Luchador going for parlays that will pay big when they come in, while El Chupa looks for parlays that are virtually sure things (if there is such a thing) but offer less of a reward. It also means El Chupa is VERY judicious about the straight bets he makes. El Luchador? Not so much. . .

This also means that El Chupa often uses his statistical acumen, such as it is, to identify matches one should AVOID, as well as matches that look like high percentage wagers. When he can find a match he think is both a solid wager AND +100 or better odds, he is VERY happy.

So, on to this week's picks.

Everton at Portsmouth - This one is intriguing as Everton is being given only -115, practically begging you to put $15 on what looks like a mismatch. We don't like Everton's defense at all, they're giving up too many goals. And they haven't earned a single point away from home. But Portsmouth looks so freaking helpless that it's hard to predict when they will break out of their funk. It certainly will be at home, right? But against Everton? We think not. This match could also make one game of a parlay, as the -115 will help boost your payout if you pick a DEFINITE mismatch like Burnley at Spurs, which we think will result in Spurs demolishing the visiting side. Currently, our book is paying +140 on a two-game parlay of Everton and Spurs.

Aston Villa at Blackburn - This match is intriguing as we have Villa rated very high in the power rankings, and the +120 odds are attractive. However, our data also tells us that Blackburn doesn't give up shots, doesn't give up shots on goal, and doesn't give up corners. They are right at the league average for GA with 8. So Villa has their work cut out for them. El Chupa will be very tempted to look at this one closely and take a straight bet on one of these two teams.

Arsenal at Fulham - It's tempting to think Fulham will play Arsenal tough at Craven Cottage (coolest freaking name ever), but we think Arsenal will overpower the homeside and quite possibly when by a two-goal margin. We've been unimpressed with Fulham so far, and think that they look like goals will be hard to come by. They only have 16 SOG all season and only Burnley is worse with 13 (the league average is 27). The over is not paying well, and we can't see Fulham winning a goal-fest. This would be a good match for a parlay.

Upset of the week: Man U at Stoke - Do we think Stoke will beat Man U? No. But at +675, wtf? Put up $5. Man U is going to give up goals this year, and they will lose one or two more matches to the likes of Burnley. So, trust your gut, or not, whatever. Fuck Man U.