Man City, Spurs, Reds: Who's Going on a European Tour?

By El Chupa

Last week we looked at Liverpool's chances at overtaking Spurs and sneaking in to the fourth spot in the league.  Our conclusion was that Liverpool actually had a chance given how much easier was their remaining schedule.  In our analysis, we ignored Man City, not because we thought they had a worse chance than the Reds, but because regardless of what City accomplished, Liverpool had to overtake Spurs to make it to fourth.  We were also focused on refuting Rafa's claim that the Scousers still had a chance to earn the automatic bid to the Champions League.

Well, this weekend's fixtures have changed things, and we thought we'd update our prognostication.  So today we'll look at Spurs, Man City, AND Liverpool and make our prediction as to who, in fact, will attain the coveted fourth invitation to Europe's premier club competition.

We pointed out last time that Spurs had a very tough schedule compared to Liverpool, including games against Chelsea, Man U, Man City and Arsenal.  And, well, they still do.  To top it off, Spurs were soundly beaten by Sunderland last weekend, squandering an opportunity to pick up points that would have helped them immensely.  Lucky for them, Liverpool continued to torment their fans, managing a draw with a solid but surely weaker Birmingham.  Meanwhile, City absolutely THUMPED Burnley.  But Man City fans have to look forward to games against Man U (derby), Arsenal, Spurs and Villa.  The only tough game the Reds have left is against Chelsea. 

So, last weekend's fixtures put City at 59, followed by Spurs at 58 and Liverpool at a a distant 55 (notice how large the draw with Birmingham looms for the Reds).  Both City and Spurs have a game in hand over LFC. However, as we've indicated, Liverpool has by far the much easier schedule.  Liverpool's remaining opponents have earned on average 1.19 PTS/GM. Spurs' have averaged 1.69 followed by Man City's at 1.44.  This season, a team in the EPL has picked up, on average, 1.36 PTS/GM..  The table below summarizes the situation (if you can't make it out, click on it).

The final column reduces or increases each team's projected points based on the relative strength of that team's remaining opponents.  Notice that if each team earns the same number of points over its remaining games that it has all year, Man City squeaks in ahead of Spurs.  If we take into consideration the strength of each club's respective schedules, however, (at least from a numerical standpoint) City and Spurs finish in a dead heat.  Neither scenario looks good for the Reds.  Now that we've crunched the numbers, here's what we really think is going to happen.

Man City will pick up wins at home against Birmingham, Spurs, Villa, and West Ham.  They'll drop games to both Man U and the Gunners.   This will give them 12 PTS.  Spurs will manage only 1 PT over three games against Man U, Chelsea, and Arsenal.  They'll lose to City but thump both Bolton and Burnley.  This will give them a very disappointing 7 PTS.  Meanwhile, if we give the Reds a generous 12 points, with wins in four of their last five games, they still come up short.  Final standings in the race for fourth: Man City 71; Scousers 67; Spurs 65.  We actually expect the Reds to draw one of those wins, but feel magnanimous today.  And of course if Spurs go up to Manchester and manage to beat a surging City squad with its eyes on the prize, that swing in three points will pull them even with City.  It should be an interesting match.

Why Liverpool Just Might Make It Back to the Champions League

By El Chupa
Rafa Benitez is claiming that Liverpool Football Club still have their eyes on the fourth spot in the EPL and an automatic bid to the UEFA Champions League.  After Aston Villa's utter annihilation at Stamford Bridge this weekend, it would appear that Man City and Tottenham are the only teams standing in Liverpool's way. Here's why Tottenham will not foil Benitez's plan. 

Currently, Spurs are in the fourth spot with 58 points and Liverpool are two places behind with 54 (Man City are fifth at 56).  Spurs have a game in hand with seven left to play.  The Reds have only six games to play.  At first glance, it might look like Rafa is again blowing smoke, trying to keep the Kop's drunken fans at bay, keep his job, and keep his players from phoning it in the rest of the season.

A quick look at the numbers suggests that Rafa is, in fact, ALL smoke and no fire, but looks can be deceiving. Spurs have averaged 1.87 PTS/Game while the Reds have averaged 1.69.  This projects out to Spurs earning 13 PTS by the end of the season, and LFC earning 10.  This would get Spurs to 71 PTS and Liverpool to 64.  On the face of it, the game-in-hand Spurs have over Liverpool looms rather large, as the mere 4 PTS that separate the two clubs now are really a distortion, and Rafa's impression that he won't be on the job market in a few weeks illusory.

However, before Scouser-haters rejoice, take a look at each team's remaining schedule.  Spurs face 7 teams who together represent 355 PTS earned this year in the EPL.  Liverpool face six teams representing a mere 232 PTS.  Spurs will face, on average, a team "worth" about 51 PTS.  Currently, Aston Villa are at 51 PTS in the league table.  Liverpool, on the other hand, will face, on average, a team "worth" about 38 PTS, such as Fulham or Stoke.  To make matters worse for Spurs, Tottenham will play Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal, AND Man City (who are right behind them in the standings).  Liverpool have only Chelsea left to play from the top of the table.  In short, would you rather play Villa seven times in a row, or Fulham six times?

As much as the experts at the Luchametric Institute hate to admit it, Reds fans still have hope of some small shred of redemption at the end of the season.  Spurs fans, on the other hand, have much to hope for, and even more to worry about.

UEFA Champions League Preview: Play the H1N1 Card

By El Chupacabra

You've heard of H1N1. Maybe your household has fallen pray to its ravages. But if there's any week that would be a good week to play the H1N1 card at work (um, call in "sick" because you're sure you've got the flu de pork) it's this week. There are great UEFA Champions league fixtures both Tuesday and Wednesday, and the very best are on FSC. If you don't have the cojones to call in sick, then set your DVR and tell the wife to clear your schedule Tuesday and Wednesday night after work (take advantage of the extra hour today to earn some bonus brownie points from the little lady if need be).

Here's our picks to watch this week. Taken together, they make this one of the best weeks of the Fall thus far for fans of the beautiful game.

Chelsea at Atletico Madrid - Tuesday, Nov 3 at 2:30 FSC. Chelsea is at the top of the EPL table, Atletico is near the bottom of the La Liga standings. Atletico is at the bottom of the group standings in Group D in the Champions League with a mere one point, and Chelsea is on top with nine. On the face of it, this is an abject mismatch. But Atletico has their backs to the wall, and Chelsea is flying to Madrid for a midweek match after playing on Saturday. Atletico needs a win to have any chance of surviving the group stage, and they need a win to turn their season around and avoid the embarrassment of relegation. This should be a tough match for Chelsea, and some very enjoyable football.

Real Madrid at AC Milan - Tuesday, Nov 3 at 2:45 (Live on FSE and Delayed until 7:00 on FSC). If this is the only match you catch this week, catch it. Ronaldo's still out and AC beat Madrid in Madrid in their first meeting. Both teams have six points in the group and both could use a positive result. This a tough group, with Marseille and Zurich lurking closely to the leaders and looking to find their way through. As Dr. Bumba is found of saying, this is "cracker jack" football at its best. Both teams need a win. Watch it. Do it.

Barca at Rubin Kazan - Wednesday, Nov 4 at 12:30 (Live on FSC). Rubin Kazan currently sits atop of the table in the Russian Premier League. Barca is Barca. Rubin Kazan shocked Barca two weeks ago at Camp Nou, embarassing the reigning UEFA Champions League Champions, Spanish La Liga Champions, and Spanish King's Cup holders. We consider Group F to be the toughest Group in the competition, with Barca, Inter, Rubin Kazan and the Dangerous Dynamo all vying to get through to the next stage. We look for Barca to come prepared but they are facing a long trip, midweek, to play a foe at home who has proven they can play with the best in the world. This should be a great match. We expect Barca to be motivated and prepared to play their very best. If they do, you will see the beautiful game at its absolute finest.

Liverpool at Lyon - Wednesday, Nov 4 at 2:30 (Live on FSC). Liverpool is on their back, having lost last week to Arsenal in the Carling Cup and on Saturday to Fulham. Who knows? Benitez could be sacked before this match even starts. Needless to say, the Scousers need a win to salvage their chances in the Champions League and to turn their season around. There's too much money on the pitch when the Reds hit the turf for upper management to continue to tolerate mediocre play. Liverpool is not Fulham, nor are they Villa. In other words, playing only asbwell as the latter two clubs is unacceptable for one of richest clubs in the world. Expectations among fans and haters alike are higher than Benitez' squad has yet achieved this year. But enough about the Reds.

Lyon is in second place in Ligue 1, and on top of the Group with nine points. This is a tough group as well, as Fiorentina is a solid squad, with a dynamic international striker in Gilardino. If you know nothing about Lyon but hate (or love) Liverpool, this should be a good match to watch. Liverpool will push hard to earn three points away as a loss will put them face to face with being eliminated in the group stage.

There are other fine matches, such as Stuttgart at Sevilla. But if you're picking your spots and have a busy week, you could do much worse than to catch one or two of the above fixtures as you wait for Friday's Crew match against RSL. C-Bus 'till I die.

EPL Handicapping: Liverpool at Chelsea - Thunder of the Gods

By El Chupacabra
Here's our take on the the premier fixture in the Premier League this weekend.

Liverpool at Chelsea
The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that these two teams are virtually the same. A mere .04 of a Standard Deviation separates them, which is like saying that the difference is within the margin of error--well within it. The other numbers tell us that Benitez is a dickhead. It's hard to be objective on this one after what the Scouser fans did to our beloved World Soccer Daily.

The hard numbers tell us that Liverpool scores more goals but also gives up more. Chelsea scores fewer goals but gives up fewer goals, fewer shots, basically fewer everything when it comes to opportunities created against. These teams don't like each other, and when they meet it has all the markings of a classic "derby," and Benitez is a dickhead. Wait, I mean to say that both teams are highly motivated. They have a long history of beating each other in key games and key competitions, and both will be up for the match. Chelsea was beaten last year at home by the Scousers, and they lost last week at Wigan. Liverpool lost on Tuesday at Fiorentina and looked like hell on defense. Plus, every game between top teams is huge as dropping three points to your closest competitors means you have to make them up at some point, and you've just dropped points to a team whose rate of earning PTS/GM is the same as yours making it difficult to overtake them, especially as the season progresses because you have fewer games left by which to acquire points.

Finally, Chelsea's schedule has not been very tough, and they haven't been winning by large margins. This will be the first time they've played a world class offensive side that is clearly hitting it on all cylinders. It comes down to whether Chelsea can stifle Liverpool's attack AND take advantage of the opportunities Liverpool will give up. We think Liverpool's committment to attack explains why they've given up more goals than the Blues, but we also think that their defense is suspect. But that doesn't mean that Chelsea will have many scoring chances, as they certainly haven't lit it up against much lesser teams.

Our prediction: Draw 1-1

MONEY LINE Liverpool +215 TIE +210 Chelsea Even

LUCHAMETRIC Draw. Diff is .04 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Chelsea: Both teams traveled to Europe midweek for UEFA matches. But Liverpool are traveling down to London. Slight nod to Chelsea here.

INSPIRATION Draw. Chelsea are looking to avenge last year's loss at home to the Scousers. Plus, they lost last week to Wigan and need to reassert their early season form in the EPL. Benitez is a dickhead. Both teams dislike each other, and the Scousers would like nothing better than to stick it to one of their biggest rivals on their home turf. Finally, the Scousers were humiliated on Tuesday, Benitez ripped them a new one, and they'll be looking to convince him and their fans that they're better than they looked on Tuesday.

INJURIES Advantage Liverpool: Chelsea is without Cech, and Ballack is doubtful. But, the Chelsea website is reporting he will be back. Liverpool will be without only Dosenna and Aquilani.

HISTORY Advantage Liverpool: All time results in all competitions: Liverpool 69 Draw 33 Chelsea 54.

RECENT FORM Advantage Liverpool: Scousers WLWWWW Chelsea WWWWWL

UEFA Champions League Tips II: Liverpool and VFB Stuttgart

By El Chupa
El Chupa's parlay yesterday of Man U, Real Madrid and Chelsea came through and ended up paying +150. Nothing to shout about, but nothing to sneeze at either. He now is flush with misplaced confidence and offers the following advice.

The best match of the day from a fan's perspective is without a doubt Barca at Inter. And of course, FSC isn't showing it live because they have their heads up their asses and are slaves to the EPL. But I digress. In any case, I wouldn't touch this one. Either team could win, and it could also very likely end up being a draw. Eto will be inspired to score on his old club, and Inter looks very good this year so far. They destroyed AC Milan a week or so ago. Barca is Barca. They have Messi and Henry up front. They have Pujols. They have Alvez and Iniesta. Take the under at even odds if you want. We think this will be low scoring, perhaps a 1-0 or 1-1 affair. But now that I've just read what I wrote about Barca's roster, I may just take Barca. The brain says no; the heart says "F#$% it!"

The best wager is without a doubt a two-team parlay of Liverpool and Stuttgart. Both are at home, and although Stuttgart has the tougher match, we think they will prevail. This parlay is currently at -170 or $7 on a $10 wager: a 70% return on a high percentage wager.

EPL Picks: Spurs over Man U

By El Chupa
Ok, El Chupa and El Luchador have done the Vulcan mind-meld with Dr Bumba, and have the following picks for our loyal reader(s).

Man U at Spurs: Take Spurs to win at +200. Man U is NOT the team they were with Ronaldo. Sir Alex Le Douche has not figured out how to bring this team together. They look unorganized when attacking. Spurs are off to a hot start and they are especially tough at White Hart Lane. Their defense is loosey goosey. But we still like Spurs here, at these odds, at home.

Parley: Liverpool and Chelsea to win: The return on this is rather dismal: around $13 for a $20 bet. But it's as close to a sure thing as you're going to get this weekend. El Chupa took LA in the MLS plus Liverpool and the Blues in a three game parley. Yee haw.

El Luchador's Sleeper of the Week: Wolves at +320 over Blackburn at Blackburn. Do it. Do it.

The rest of the games are all rather too close for comfort. If you can, catch Arsenal at Man City. Holy shit. That's some serious football people. El Luchador likes the draw on this one. El Chupa and Dr Bumba say stay the hell away but watch and catch some beautiful football. Arshavin is out for this game but Fabregas is back. Man City is out to prove they belong in the top four. Aresnal wants three points after having one to three STOLEN at Old Trafford.

See also: www.goonersguide.com

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Things Not What They Seem

By El Chupa
The metric for the EPL has been fully tweaked and updated. As you can see, our numbers offer some interesting insights. First, Liverpool is far from dead in the water. They don't have the results, but their production puts them above the league average by .33 of a standard deviation. Granted, the next five teams in the rankings are doing much better, but Liverpool is ahead of the rest of the league--they're just not doing as well as would be expected. However, we expect them to start getting results and to gain on the rest of the big four.

Note also how far down Stoke is relative to their actual position in the League table. It's early in the long season, and they have the pts, but the Luchametric suggests that they really belong in the middle of the pack.

Finally, in spite of their loss to Man U (which clearly was largely a result of piss-poor officiating [and a moronic own goal]) the Luchametric puts Arsenal ahead of Man U. We stand by this ranking. Arsenal was all over Man U and generated far more chances. Rooney the Cave Man's PK was a freaking JOKE. And the goal Arsenal scored in extra time was stolen from them by--hold your breath--piss-poor officiating.

EPL Luchametric Update: My Arse

By El Chupa
We've updated the EPL rankings through Liverpool's dismal performance at home against Aston Villa yesterday. Since we've now made it clear that our loathing for Liverpool FC and it's knuckle-dragging fans is close behind that of only Toronto and the Italian and Mexican Men's National Teams, we take heart in knowing that the soccer gods are on our side. Is it only coincidence that Liverpool lost their first match since destroying our beloved World Soccer Daily broadcast? Of course not. Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster and our brother and sister pirates in the World Football Nation for that one. Villa owes us big time.

Oh, Aresenal is still on top. Duh. And for all the doomsayers in the British press who are already counting Liverpool out, give me a break. It's August for Christ's sake you limey monkeys. Go to the dentist already.

Liverpool Scum Succeed

El Luchador has always tried to remain neutral in maters of English football. But, now come the Liverpool horde to dismantle the best soccer radio show in North America, and we must now take sides.

Steven Cohen is not the most thoughtful or compassionate or self-aware football warrior in our ranks. But he is among the brightest, most knowledgeable and articulate English commentators on the game in this hemisphere. And his partner, Kenny Hassan, is the most sober and substantive Scotsman in the world football commentating community next to Bobby McMahon.

Their show, World Soccer Daily, for 7 years has been the epicenter of American soccer culture. Hundreds of thousands of U.S. soccer fans listen in through pod casts and satellite radio every day.

About 5 months ago, Steven made some off-colour and ill-advised statements about the 96 Liverpool fans who perished under the feet of their own brethren on Sept. 15, 1989, in what has come to be known as the Hillsboro Disaster.

Most fans of the world’s game know that there is a segment of the Liverpool fandom who are drunken, knuckle-dragging, violent, ignorant, specimens who swim in the shallow end of the homo sapien gene pool.

Ever since Steven’s comments this spring, these Liverpool fans have put on a campaign to destroy the show. They started by getting advertisers to pull out. This went on for several months, and took a financial toll on the show. The Liverpool troglodytes ultimately succeeded by resorting to physical, personal threats to Hassan and Cohen and their families. And they announced today that this was their last show.

“I believe that if this goes on, people are going to get hurt, people are going to get killed, and it’s just not worth it, it’s simply not worth it,” Cohen said.

“It’s just a stupid crusade,” said Hassan. “Tell people don’t listen to the show, but to harass us off the air, families and the threats and stuff, it just went too far.”

So, here comes the irony. There are decent Liverpool fans, but they have been made irrelevant by fuck heads who have now destroyed the best English-language football show this side of the Atlantic.

If you are a living, breathing, thinking, aware, human soccer fan in the United States, then there is only one conclusion. Down with Liverpool. Down with the Kop. Remember the 96, but never support the Reds. ‘Till I Die. Till We Die.

Crew Now 5-2 in Pre-Season With 2-0 Win Over Scouser Reserves

The Crew advanced to 5-2 in pre-season play and continued a 4-game winning streak by beating the rotten stinking Liverpool scouser reserves 2-0 today at the Liverpool academy site in Knowsley, UK.

In the final match of their England preseason trip, Alejandro Moreno and Guillermo Barros Schelotto each scored and Will Hesmer was solid with another clean sheet in goal.

CREW LINEUP: William Hesmer, Frankie Hejduk, Danny O’Rourke, Chad Marshall, Gino Padula, Eddie Gaven, Brian Carroll, Emmanuel Ekpo (Duncan Oughton 77), Robbie Rogers, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, Alejandro Moreno

LIVERPOOL RESERVES LINEUP: Dean Bouzanis, Martin Kelly (Ronald Huth 46), Mikel San Jose, Steven Irwin, Emmanuel Mendy (Andre Wisdom 75), Gerardo Bruna (Vincent Weijl 12), Damien Plessis (David Amoo 56), Jay Spearing, Victor Palsson, Dani Pacheco, Andras Simon (Vitor Flora 46)

The Crew return to Columbus Friday, take the weekend off before resuming training on Monday. They leave on Tuesday, March 10, for Austin, Texas, where they will train for several days in preparation for their final pre-season match v Austin Aztex FC, 8:30 p.m. ET., Saturday, March 14.

A Look At the Limey Opposition

The Crew have four more away pre-season exhibition matches starting this Sunday, March 1, when they take on the reserve squad of new Coach Robert Warzycha’s old club, Everton Blues at Halton Stadium in suburban Liverpool, England.

El Luchador takes a look at these final games in the home stretch of the preseason campaign. Today, we look at the English leg. Later, we will look at Austin Aztex FC.

Everton March 1. Everton’s senior squad currently sits 6th in the highly competitive English Premier League, just 10 points below the coveted 4th spot and the UEFA Champions League. One of the most storied clubs in English football, Everton have played more seasons in the top flight than any other English club. Of course, the Crew’s skipper, Warzycha figures prominently in that history, and his return to Merseyside will be an interesting opportunity for the Polish Rifle to showcase his new charges at his old stomping ground.

After a good start to the season, the Everton reserves squad has had a poor run of form lately in the FA Premier Reserve League, having not won a game since Nov. 18, when they beat the Newcastle Reserves 1-0 at Newcastle. They are 4-5-5 overall and sit in 5th place. They have scored just 14 goals in 14 games, conceding 17. Look for the Crew to win this one, but it will be hard fought, as the boys will still be fighting jet lag.

Guiseley AFC March 3. (EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS GAME WAS RAINED OUT.) Guiseley is a small town outside Leeds in the county of West Yorkshire, England. At 2:45 p.m. ET, March 3, the Crew take on Guiseley AFC at their home ground of Nethermoor Park, a tiny grandstand with a capacity of just 3,000. Guiseley are currently in 7th place in the Unibond Premier League, a semi-pro division of English football. They have earned 45 points in 28 games with 12 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. They lead the league in offense with 61 goals, but also have given up 46 goals placing them in the bottom half of the league in defense. Look for this to be a high-scoring affair with the Crew eking out the win.

Unibond is part of the system of teams that play one level below the Football Conference, itself the fifth level of English football. In other words, Guiseley are six divisions below the English Premier League. In Case you were wondering, yes the league is named after tile grout.

Since 1990, Guiseley have reached the 4th Qualifying round of the FA Cup six times, reaching the 1st round of the knockout tournament just once in 2002-03, when they lost 0-4 at Luton Town. Every man on their roster is English, except goalkeeper Peter Skiba of Poland.

Crewture has a good recent video of the Lions in action.

Liverpool March 5. Liverpool Reserves play in the Barclays Premiership Reserve League, where they won the division championship in 2000. The Crew take them on at their Halliwell Jones Stadium, the home ground of Warrington Wolves RFC.

Coincidentally, the most recent match for both Everton and Liverpool reserves was against each other where they tied 1-1 on a freak goal.

Legendary Liverpool manager Bill Shankly, famously once trash-talked local rivals Everton by declaring, “There's only two teams in Liverpool: Liverpool and Liverpool Reserves.”

Liverpool reserves currently sit 9th in their 13-team division. They have only 13 points in 13 games played with 3 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. They have scored only 11 goals on the season while giving up 13. The Crew win this one handily.

What do you think? Am I too optimistic calling this Limey series 3-0 for the Black & Gold? Columbus Till I Die Brothers and Sisters.