UEFA Champions League Preview: Play the H1N1 Card

By El Chupacabra

You've heard of H1N1. Maybe your household has fallen pray to its ravages. But if there's any week that would be a good week to play the H1N1 card at work (um, call in "sick" because you're sure you've got the flu de pork) it's this week. There are great UEFA Champions league fixtures both Tuesday and Wednesday, and the very best are on FSC. If you don't have the cojones to call in sick, then set your DVR and tell the wife to clear your schedule Tuesday and Wednesday night after work (take advantage of the extra hour today to earn some bonus brownie points from the little lady if need be).

Here's our picks to watch this week. Taken together, they make this one of the best weeks of the Fall thus far for fans of the beautiful game.

Chelsea at Atletico Madrid - Tuesday, Nov 3 at 2:30 FSC. Chelsea is at the top of the EPL table, Atletico is near the bottom of the La Liga standings. Atletico is at the bottom of the group standings in Group D in the Champions League with a mere one point, and Chelsea is on top with nine. On the face of it, this is an abject mismatch. But Atletico has their backs to the wall, and Chelsea is flying to Madrid for a midweek match after playing on Saturday. Atletico needs a win to have any chance of surviving the group stage, and they need a win to turn their season around and avoid the embarrassment of relegation. This should be a tough match for Chelsea, and some very enjoyable football.

Real Madrid at AC Milan - Tuesday, Nov 3 at 2:45 (Live on FSE and Delayed until 7:00 on FSC). If this is the only match you catch this week, catch it. Ronaldo's still out and AC beat Madrid in Madrid in their first meeting. Both teams have six points in the group and both could use a positive result. This a tough group, with Marseille and Zurich lurking closely to the leaders and looking to find their way through. As Dr. Bumba is found of saying, this is "cracker jack" football at its best. Both teams need a win. Watch it. Do it.

Barca at Rubin Kazan - Wednesday, Nov 4 at 12:30 (Live on FSC). Rubin Kazan currently sits atop of the table in the Russian Premier League. Barca is Barca. Rubin Kazan shocked Barca two weeks ago at Camp Nou, embarassing the reigning UEFA Champions League Champions, Spanish La Liga Champions, and Spanish King's Cup holders. We consider Group F to be the toughest Group in the competition, with Barca, Inter, Rubin Kazan and the Dangerous Dynamo all vying to get through to the next stage. We look for Barca to come prepared but they are facing a long trip, midweek, to play a foe at home who has proven they can play with the best in the world. This should be a great match. We expect Barca to be motivated and prepared to play their very best. If they do, you will see the beautiful game at its absolute finest.

Liverpool at Lyon - Wednesday, Nov 4 at 2:30 (Live on FSC). Liverpool is on their back, having lost last week to Arsenal in the Carling Cup and on Saturday to Fulham. Who knows? Benitez could be sacked before this match even starts. Needless to say, the Scousers need a win to salvage their chances in the Champions League and to turn their season around. There's too much money on the pitch when the Reds hit the turf for upper management to continue to tolerate mediocre play. Liverpool is not Fulham, nor are they Villa. In other words, playing only asbwell as the latter two clubs is unacceptable for one of richest clubs in the world. Expectations among fans and haters alike are higher than Benitez' squad has yet achieved this year. But enough about the Reds.

Lyon is in second place in Ligue 1, and on top of the Group with nine points. This is a tough group as well, as Fiorentina is a solid squad, with a dynamic international striker in Gilardino. If you know nothing about Lyon but hate (or love) Liverpool, this should be a good match to watch. Liverpool will push hard to earn three points away as a loss will put them face to face with being eliminated in the group stage.

There are other fine matches, such as Stuttgart at Sevilla. But if you're picking your spots and have a busy week, you could do much worse than to catch one or two of the above fixtures as you wait for Friday's Crew match against RSL. C-Bus 'till I die.

UEFA Champions League Handicaping: Wednesday's Tips and Previews

By El Chupa

Wednesday's matches offer a bit more for both the fan and the wagerer than today's matches. Here's our skinny:

Zurich at AC Milan - This should prove to be an entertaining match, although the odds don't really make it a promising match to throw some money on. The nod here goes to Milan playing at home, but Zurich will play them tough. Gamblers looking to get lucky might go for the draw here, as a Zurich win is unlikely, and the odds for Milan not worth the risk.

Juventus at Bayern Munchen - This should prove to be another great match for the fan. And for the wagerer this may be the best match of the day. Juventus has the edge in our view in terms of being the better side and are being given +230, which is seductive to say the least. But Bayern is 3 and 2 in its last 5 matches and they're playing at home. After last year's debacle in the knock-out stage, which resulted in Klinsman's exit as coach, you can be sure Bayern is looking to do better, which means they need to get out of the group stage. They are currently in 7th in the Bundesliga behind Wolfsburg. We think the draw here is the best bet. Juventus will be happy to come away with one point.

ATL Madrid at Porto - This should be yet another entertaining match. But punters should stay away. It could go either way very easily, in our view.

Marseille at Real Madrid - Real is the team to beat this year in the Champions League, along with Barca and Chelsea. We already have the Barca v. Real Madrid match on our calendar as a good day to call in sick and quaff some home brew. Take Real as one half of a parlay. It's as good as in the bank.

Wolfsburg at Man U - This could be an entertaining match, but as we said yesterday, we look for Man U to break through and dominate in the second half, especially at home against a Wolfsburg side struggling to match last year's form. Take Man U as part of a two game parlay with Real Madrid and enjoy a truly outstanding day of European football. We hope you have your DVR ready.

UEFA Champions League Tips II: Liverpool and VFB Stuttgart

By El Chupa
El Chupa's parlay yesterday of Man U, Real Madrid and Chelsea came through and ended up paying +150. Nothing to shout about, but nothing to sneeze at either. He now is flush with misplaced confidence and offers the following advice.

The best match of the day from a fan's perspective is without a doubt Barca at Inter. And of course, FSC isn't showing it live because they have their heads up their asses and are slaves to the EPL. But I digress. In any case, I wouldn't touch this one. Either team could win, and it could also very likely end up being a draw. Eto will be inspired to score on his old club, and Inter looks very good this year so far. They destroyed AC Milan a week or so ago. Barca is Barca. They have Messi and Henry up front. They have Pujols. They have Alvez and Iniesta. Take the under at even odds if you want. We think this will be low scoring, perhaps a 1-0 or 1-1 affair. But now that I've just read what I wrote about Barca's roster, I may just take Barca. The brain says no; the heart says "F#$% it!"

The best wager is without a doubt a two-team parlay of Liverpool and Stuttgart. Both are at home, and although Stuttgart has the tougher match, we think they will prevail. This parlay is currently at -170 or $7 on a $10 wager: a 70% return on a high percentage wager.

Champions League Tips: Chelsea, Real Madrid, Man U,

By El Chupa

All three of these clubs (Man U, Chelsea, and Real Madrid) could win the Champions League and all three are in very good form. Real Madrid will prove simply too much for Zurich. Ronaldo, punk that he is, wants very badly to bring glory to the club he's idolized since childhood. And Madrid spent millions of Euros in the summer to send Madrid back to the finals of possibly the most respected of all the European championships. Chelsea is at home against a respectable Porto club, but as we've pointed out, no team in England, and very few in Europe, are in Chelsea's league at the moment. Being without the suspended Drogba hurts but this is a deep, world class club. Finally, as much as we loathe Man U, we think this is a mismatch as well, even at Beskitas. We've gone with a three game parley.

EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea Maintains Dominance

By El Chupa
The metric for the EPL has been tweaked and updated. As with the MLS we've added a metric for "Quality SOGs." Chelsea sits atop the EPL by nearly one full standard deviation above their nearest rival: Man U. Man U, Spurs, and Man City are virtually deadlocked and round out the top four. Liverpool has maintained a very competitive rate of production, as has Arsenal, despite the latter's two losses in a row.

Chelsea has allowed only nine shots on goal against (SOGA) over five games, easily leading the rest of the league which has averaged 31 SOGA. They have also given up only 14 corners as compared to the league average of 28. Only Blackburn with 12 has given up fewer (the Blues are tied with Man U who also have only 14). If this keeps up, teams will find it very hard to create chances let alone score on the Blues. Did I mention that Chelsea has five wins in five games? I would not want to be Spurs who head to Stamford Bridge this weekend. Neither would I want to be FC Porto, who face Chelsea in UEFA Champions League Group play later today. Given the controversy over last year's loss to Barca in the semi-final of the Champions League, I'm sure the Blues will be motivated.

EPL Luchametric Ratings Updated

By El Chupacabra

The EPL Luchametric Ratings have been updated in time for this weekend's game. Remember, they are based on scant data and it is very early in the marathon EPL season. El Chupa can tell you this, however: of the big four, Chelsea is playing extremely well, mind-blowingly so. They are swarming all over their opponents on the pitch and in the stats, out shooting them and gaining corners and other chances at a shocking rate. Of the top teams from last season, they are the only one who look like they haven't missed a beat. Remember, this is a team who were bounced out of the UEFA Champions League by Barca by a mere whisker, and most Chelsea fans think game two was stolen from them. El Chupa thinks Barca was and is the better team, but we feel Chelsea's pain.