By El Chupacabra
The EPL Luchametric Ratings have been updated in time for this weekend's game. Remember, they are based on scant data and it is very early in the marathon EPL season. El Chupa can tell you this, however: of the big four, Chelsea is playing extremely well, mind-blowingly so. They are swarming all over their opponents on the pitch and in the stats, out shooting them and gaining corners and other chances at a shocking rate. Of the top teams from last season, they are the only one who look like they haven't missed a beat. Remember, this is a team who were bounced out of the UEFA Champions League by Barca by a mere whisker, and most Chelsea fans think game two was stolen from them. El Chupa thinks Barca was and is the better team, but we feel Chelsea's pain.
Showing posts with label Sabermetrics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sabermetrics. Show all posts
Friday, August 21, 2009
Monday, July 20, 2009
El Luchador's Power Rankings
By El Chupa
Starting today, El Luchador is pleased to bring you his personal MLS 2009 Power Rankings. They will be on the right above the standings and will be updated weekly.
The rankings are based on a metric developed by El Luchador's oppressed worker El Chupacabra, in conjunction with the close empirical observation of El Lucha himself. The metric includes a proprietary combination of weighted statistical variables including: goals, wins, losses, draws, shots, shots on goal, shots on goal against, goals against and even corner kicks taken. As well, the metric takes into account goals, wins and draws at home versus goals, wins, and draws away. The raw number gives one a sense of the overall point production of the team across an entire season. The "per game" number gives one a sense of the average power or potential for point production a team brings to each match.
The metric is a work in progress and will be updated as El Chupa and El Lucha continue to wrestle with the murky and alchemical world of soccer statistics. Tune in regularly for updates and analysis, including game predictions and the handicapping of games as a service to those who enjoy responsible wagering on US and world soccer, wherever such wagering is legal.
The metric is designed to provide the fan and wager with a more in-depth understanding of the relative merits of each team. The standings tell us how well each team has fared relative to the others, but the metric, in conjunction with the statistics El Chupa maintains as part of his work at the Luchametric Institute, tell us more about WHY each team has fared as it has. The basic standings only allow us a broad, general grok of the true merits of each team. As we all know, the best team doesn't always win, or even draw. The metric, however, gives us more information, allowing us to draw concrete and quantifiable conclusions about what the points standings DON'T tell us about how good each teams is relative to the other. Look for handicapped previews of this weekend's games later in the week.
Starting today, El Luchador is pleased to bring you his personal MLS 2009 Power Rankings. They will be on the right above the standings and will be updated weekly.
The rankings are based on a metric developed by El Luchador's oppressed worker El Chupacabra, in conjunction with the close empirical observation of El Lucha himself. The metric includes a proprietary combination of weighted statistical variables including: goals, wins, losses, draws, shots, shots on goal, shots on goal against, goals against and even corner kicks taken. As well, the metric takes into account goals, wins and draws at home versus goals, wins, and draws away. The raw number gives one a sense of the overall point production of the team across an entire season. The "per game" number gives one a sense of the average power or potential for point production a team brings to each match.
The metric is a work in progress and will be updated as El Chupa and El Lucha continue to wrestle with the murky and alchemical world of soccer statistics. Tune in regularly for updates and analysis, including game predictions and the handicapping of games as a service to those who enjoy responsible wagering on US and world soccer, wherever such wagering is legal.
The metric is designed to provide the fan and wager with a more in-depth understanding of the relative merits of each team. The standings tell us how well each team has fared relative to the others, but the metric, in conjunction with the statistics El Chupa maintains as part of his work at the Luchametric Institute, tell us more about WHY each team has fared as it has. The basic standings only allow us a broad, general grok of the true merits of each team. As we all know, the best team doesn't always win, or even draw. The metric, however, gives us more information, allowing us to draw concrete and quantifiable conclusions about what the points standings DON'T tell us about how good each teams is relative to the other. Look for handicapped previews of this weekend's games later in the week.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Coming Soon: Luchametrics
By El Chupacabra
All the numbers said the United States should have lost to Spain in South Africa on Wednesday. But Bob Bradley’s boys beat the statisticians, which raises an interesting question.
What role, if any, should statistics, and especially the sort of sophisticated statistical tools used for years in some American sports (see Baseball) play in our enjoyment and understanding of the beautiful game?
A recent post at The Offside suggests that more stats would make the beautiful game more appealing to American sports fans. And as this article from the Wall Street Journal shows, the big clubs are now using sophisticated statistical categories and sophisticated metrics to analyze player and team performance.
My esteemed comrade El Luchador and I obviously couldn’t care less whether football is made more appealing to the average American sports fan, a cretin whose intake of Bud Light and other “premium” beers has left him overweight, underliterate, provincial, with a sexual prowess lying somewhere between a Galapagos Tortoise and an 80-year-old Shriner in a diaper.
However, we are interested in what the numbers teach us about what we think we know from watching the beautiful game every spare moment of our lives. And most of all, we are interested in assisting our brothers and sisters who reside in less oppressive countries where betting is legal. We hope to increase profits for those who bet on the beautiful game. (A $10 bet on the U.S. to win v Spain paid more than $100).
El Chupacabra is currently working on a project which he hopes will do for football what Bill James and Sabermetrics did for Baseball, and he has been asked by his eminence El Luchador to crunch the numbers and report back regularly to his many readers on what he learns. As Chupa uncovers objective knowledge about the beautiful game, he will report it here first. Check back often to learn the results of this Sisyphean effort.
All the numbers said the United States should have lost to Spain in South Africa on Wednesday. But Bob Bradley’s boys beat the statisticians, which raises an interesting question.What role, if any, should statistics, and especially the sort of sophisticated statistical tools used for years in some American sports (see Baseball) play in our enjoyment and understanding of the beautiful game?
A recent post at The Offside suggests that more stats would make the beautiful game more appealing to American sports fans. And as this article from the Wall Street Journal shows, the big clubs are now using sophisticated statistical categories and sophisticated metrics to analyze player and team performance.
My esteemed comrade El Luchador and I obviously couldn’t care less whether football is made more appealing to the average American sports fan, a cretin whose intake of Bud Light and other “premium” beers has left him overweight, underliterate, provincial, with a sexual prowess lying somewhere between a Galapagos Tortoise and an 80-year-old Shriner in a diaper.
However, we are interested in what the numbers teach us about what we think we know from watching the beautiful game every spare moment of our lives. And most of all, we are interested in assisting our brothers and sisters who reside in less oppressive countries where betting is legal. We hope to increase profits for those who bet on the beautiful game. (A $10 bet on the U.S. to win v Spain paid more than $100).
El Chupacabra is currently working on a project which he hopes will do for football what Bill James and Sabermetrics did for Baseball, and he has been asked by his eminence El Luchador to crunch the numbers and report back regularly to his many readers on what he learns. As Chupa uncovers objective knowledge about the beautiful game, he will report it here first. Check back often to learn the results of this Sisyphean effort.
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