Arsenal vs Man City: The Mother of All Matches -- Take the Over

By M.J.D.

Man City takes its UEFA Champions League aspirations into Emirates on Saturday (12:30 FSC) in a match that it absolutely has to win. Unfortunately for City, Arsenal is reeling from losses to Spurs and lowly Wigan, and although its EPL title chances are virtually nil, the Gunners will no doubt be hungry for a home win and an outside chance at overtaking Man U in the two spot in the league by season's end.  We've updated the Power Rankings and looked at the stats and the odds, and here's what we know.

Man City will have to attack, and they are capable of scoring goals on the road. They've scored 31 AGs this season.  Statistically the two teams are virtually even.  But Arsenal does have more total Shots and SOGs, and the Gunners allow fewer SHTA and SOGA.  But in our measure of Quality Shots on Goal, which gives a team credit for the ratio of goals it scores given the number of SHTs and SOGs it takes as compared to the rest of the league, Man City has a substantial advantage.  For example, the average team in the EPL earns .26 goals for every SOG it produces, or 26%.  But Man City scores 37% of the time it manages to create a SOG opportunity--a rather draw-dropping difference.  This means that the scoring opportunities it creates are of a considerably better quality than most of the league.  Arsenal's is up there as well at 34%, but the bottom line is that the Gunners will have to treat City's attack with respect or they will find themselves in a knife fight.

This has the potential to be an extremely tense and entertaining match, with lots of goals.  Which brings us to the odds.  The odds for Arsenal winning range from -141 to +104.  The odds for Man City winning range from +240 to +330.  If you can find a book that will give you positive odds on Arsenal, take it.  If you like to gamble rather than simply  make sound wagers, take City.  We can't imagine this will be a draw.  Finally, there are a range of over bets available from the European and British sportsbooks.  In the States, where the over is generally always at  +2.5, the odds are -140.  We think the over is without a doubt the best bet on this one.  And if you can manage to place a wager some place on the over at +3.0, which some books have in the +100 range or higher, do it.

Chelsea Blows It; Man U Back in Contention; Spurs Surge; Man City Must Run the Table

By MJD

We're still in shock over both Man U's victory at Eastlands and Spurs' win at home over the Blues.  Certainly both teams were capable of winning, and Spurs' win certainly was well-deserved.  The shock comes from having to stare another Man U league title in the face when we had been hoping all season that Chelsea would finally unseat Ferguson at the top of the table.  The facts are that Chelsea blew it, and few prognosticators thought it would happen.  And now Man U has to face Spurs at home while Chelsea must go to Anfield and earn three points against Liverpool.  Both teams' other games should earn them 6 points each, so today's events really have shaken things up.  The drama in the weeks ahead connecting Chelsea's fate to Man U's to Spurs' to City's gives fans of the EPL much to savor in the last four weeks of the season.

Spurs' destiny is now in their own hands, and should they earn points at Man U and Man City, they will surge right on into a European tour--and deservedly so.  Four points out of these two matches combined with wins against Bolton and Burnley would get them to 74.  Man City has games left with Arsenal, Spurs, and Villa before finishing at home against West Ham.  We earlier argued that City would drop points to Man U and Arsenal but beat Birmingham and then run the table to finish out the season.  They're still in a position to do as we predicted.  The problem is that Spurs have been much better than predicted, picking up six points when they weren't expected by anyone to do so.   This means that the game at home against Spurs is now an absolute must win for City, as they need 12 PTS out of their remaining four matches including a win at Arsenal.  12 Pts would get them to 74 leaving Spurs at 73 even if the latter win their other three matches.  Any slip whatsoever by City in the coming weeks and 4th place will elude them--unless Spurs' luck runs out and they come crashing back to earth.  Spurs too must win at City to keep the dream of the Champions League alive, and losing at Man U would certainly put them in a difficult position.  Here's hoping fans in the states get to see as much of the epic battle for fourth place as possible in the coming weeks.

Man City, Spurs, Reds: Who's Going on a European Tour?

By El Chupa

Last week we looked at Liverpool's chances at overtaking Spurs and sneaking in to the fourth spot in the league.  Our conclusion was that Liverpool actually had a chance given how much easier was their remaining schedule.  In our analysis, we ignored Man City, not because we thought they had a worse chance than the Reds, but because regardless of what City accomplished, Liverpool had to overtake Spurs to make it to fourth.  We were also focused on refuting Rafa's claim that the Scousers still had a chance to earn the automatic bid to the Champions League.

Well, this weekend's fixtures have changed things, and we thought we'd update our prognostication.  So today we'll look at Spurs, Man City, AND Liverpool and make our prediction as to who, in fact, will attain the coveted fourth invitation to Europe's premier club competition.

We pointed out last time that Spurs had a very tough schedule compared to Liverpool, including games against Chelsea, Man U, Man City and Arsenal.  And, well, they still do.  To top it off, Spurs were soundly beaten by Sunderland last weekend, squandering an opportunity to pick up points that would have helped them immensely.  Lucky for them, Liverpool continued to torment their fans, managing a draw with a solid but surely weaker Birmingham.  Meanwhile, City absolutely THUMPED Burnley.  But Man City fans have to look forward to games against Man U (derby), Arsenal, Spurs and Villa.  The only tough game the Reds have left is against Chelsea. 

So, last weekend's fixtures put City at 59, followed by Spurs at 58 and Liverpool at a a distant 55 (notice how large the draw with Birmingham looms for the Reds).  Both City and Spurs have a game in hand over LFC. However, as we've indicated, Liverpool has by far the much easier schedule.  Liverpool's remaining opponents have earned on average 1.19 PTS/GM. Spurs' have averaged 1.69 followed by Man City's at 1.44.  This season, a team in the EPL has picked up, on average, 1.36 PTS/GM..  The table below summarizes the situation (if you can't make it out, click on it).

The final column reduces or increases each team's projected points based on the relative strength of that team's remaining opponents.  Notice that if each team earns the same number of points over its remaining games that it has all year, Man City squeaks in ahead of Spurs.  If we take into consideration the strength of each club's respective schedules, however, (at least from a numerical standpoint) City and Spurs finish in a dead heat.  Neither scenario looks good for the Reds.  Now that we've crunched the numbers, here's what we really think is going to happen.

Man City will pick up wins at home against Birmingham, Spurs, Villa, and West Ham.  They'll drop games to both Man U and the Gunners.   This will give them 12 PTS.  Spurs will manage only 1 PT over three games against Man U, Chelsea, and Arsenal.  They'll lose to City but thump both Bolton and Burnley.  This will give them a very disappointing 7 PTS.  Meanwhile, if we give the Reds a generous 12 points, with wins in four of their last five games, they still come up short.  Final standings in the race for fourth: Man City 71; Scousers 67; Spurs 65.  We actually expect the Reds to draw one of those wins, but feel magnanimous today.  And of course if Spurs go up to Manchester and manage to beat a surging City squad with its eyes on the prize, that swing in three points will pull them even with City.  It should be an interesting match.

EPL Handicapping: Manchester City to Win Over Fulham at Home

By El Luchador
Manchester City are at home against Fulham this weekend at a critical time, and the Luchametric combined with our learned analysis points toward a victory. Despite the likely absence of Adebayor, Bellamy and Toure, City will close this deal. Do it.
OUR PREDICTION: Manchester City to Win.
MONEY LINE: Man City -222 TIE +300 Fulham +625
LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage City. Almost 1 standard deviation separates these two teams as measured by the patented Luchametric power ranking system. On offense, City are averaging 2 goals per game, and Fulham are fourth from the bottom of the league in goals scored per game at less than 1. Also, Fulham are sound and fury signifying nothing: American Clint Dempsey is hitting 3.25 shots per game this season, the fourth highest rate. But he hasn’t scored a single goal.

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage City: City have been home for two weeks having faced neighboring Wigan just 30 miles down the road in a 1-1 tie on Oct. 18. Fulham will have played 3 games in 7 days having faced Hull City at home Monday (2-0 win) and AC Roma (2-1 loss) at home on Thursday in Europa Cup action before traveling 200 miles for this match at Man City.
HOME –v- AWAY FORM – Advantage City. City have not lost or tied a single home match all season in all competition (3-0 at home in EPL play). Fulham meanwhile have won only one game on the road, a lame, 1-0 victory over the even lamer Portsmouth on Sept. 15.
MOTIVATION Draw: It's early in the season yet, so both these teams have plenty to play for and have had good recent form. Fulham are coming off a convincing 2-0 home win against Hull on Monday. As Liverpool falter, City are in a position to vault into the top 4 with a win.
HISTORY Advantage City: City lead in all competitions, 23-13-17. City and Fulham have already met once this season with City winning 2-1 Sept. 23 at home in the Carling Cup.
RECENT FORM Advantage City: City – TTWWLW (11), Fulham – WTWLLL (7). Man City’s only loss this season has come against top flight opposition on the road: A 4-3 away loss to rival Manchester United on Sept. 20. City have won their last 6 EPL matches, and 12 of their last 13 games. City go for the win at home. They have gone 26 home games without a draw, the 10th-longest streak in EPL history.
INJURIES Draw:This is where City will prove that they have depth. CITY OUT E Adebayor (Ankle/Foot) Injury; C Bellamy Groin Strain; K Toure Ankle/Foot; N Onuoha Thigh Muscle Strain; Robinho Ankle/Foot; B Mwaruwari Hip/Thigh. FULHAM OUT: D Stockdale Knee Injury; S Davies Ankle/Foot; T Kallio Achilles Heal.

If your children need new shoes, take the money you have saved and invest it in this match. Use the proceeds to buy the little rug rats two pair. This is a lock: Man City to win Sunday over Fulham.