Chelsea Blows It; Man U Back in Contention; Spurs Surge; Man City Must Run the Table

By MJD

We're still in shock over both Man U's victory at Eastlands and Spurs' win at home over the Blues.  Certainly both teams were capable of winning, and Spurs' win certainly was well-deserved.  The shock comes from having to stare another Man U league title in the face when we had been hoping all season that Chelsea would finally unseat Ferguson at the top of the table.  The facts are that Chelsea blew it, and few prognosticators thought it would happen.  And now Man U has to face Spurs at home while Chelsea must go to Anfield and earn three points against Liverpool.  Both teams' other games should earn them 6 points each, so today's events really have shaken things up.  The drama in the weeks ahead connecting Chelsea's fate to Man U's to Spurs' to City's gives fans of the EPL much to savor in the last four weeks of the season.

Spurs' destiny is now in their own hands, and should they earn points at Man U and Man City, they will surge right on into a European tour--and deservedly so.  Four points out of these two matches combined with wins against Bolton and Burnley would get them to 74.  Man City has games left with Arsenal, Spurs, and Villa before finishing at home against West Ham.  We earlier argued that City would drop points to Man U and Arsenal but beat Birmingham and then run the table to finish out the season.  They're still in a position to do as we predicted.  The problem is that Spurs have been much better than predicted, picking up six points when they weren't expected by anyone to do so.   This means that the game at home against Spurs is now an absolute must win for City, as they need 12 PTS out of their remaining four matches including a win at Arsenal.  12 Pts would get them to 74 leaving Spurs at 73 even if the latter win their other three matches.  Any slip whatsoever by City in the coming weeks and 4th place will elude them--unless Spurs' luck runs out and they come crashing back to earth.  Spurs too must win at City to keep the dream of the Champions League alive, and losing at Man U would certainly put them in a difficult position.  Here's hoping fans in the states get to see as much of the epic battle for fourth place as possible in the coming weeks.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal, Spurs

By El Chupa

El Chupa is back after a long hiatus with the updated EPL Power Rankings.  There are no real surprises.  Chelsea is on top followed by Man U and then Arsenal.  Given Chelsea's game in hand over Man U, our readers should not be surprised at the difference between our rankings and the actual point standings. Plus, the difference between the two teams is negligible.


The differences among the top three are also minor.  Chelsea is about .25 of a StandDev above Arsenal, which is not much.  Spurs are a solid fourth but our rankings reveal a small but significant gap between the top three and Spurs.  This is largely due, we think, to the difference between the top three and Spurs in goals scored.  The top three all are at or above 2.3 Goals per Game while Spurs has managed only 1.79.  The bottom line for Spurs fans, however, is that the teams lurking below them are all extremely close in the rankings suggesting strongly that they all have a legitimate shot at the fourth spot and a European tour next year--especially if they have any home games against Spurs left in the schedule (we don't have time to check that out at the moment).

Finally, TOFFEES!  Everton is really too far behind in PTS to crack the top four, but our rankings show what anyone watching Everton at least since Donovan has joined them if not earlier know: the Toffees are tough and virtually a different team than they were when we went on hiatus.  At that time, their LM ranking was in the negative and they were well down in the standings.  Now they are a rock solid fifth and ranked ahead of teams ahead of them in the actual PTS standings including Liverpool.  We stand by our rankings.  Everton beat Chelsea and Man U in February before their no-doubt-disappointing loss to Spurs at White Hart Lane later in the month.  Teams going to Everton the rest of the season will face a tough opponent in excellent form. We dig it.