Luchametric English Premier League 2010-2011 Preview...of Sorts [updated]

Final 2009-10 EPL Luchametric Power Rankings

By MJD

 The EPL Resumes play in earnest on Saturday, and we at the Luchametric Institute rejoice in the return of early-Saturday-morning football.

To the left are the final Power Rankings from last season.  As a measure of where the teams are at the start of this year, however--they are fairly unhelpful.  As a general rule in sports ranking systems and prediction, the previous season's standings and performances are poor predictors of the subsequent season's performance.  But they at least provide us with a sense of how things stacked up at the end of last year, and so offer a baseline for evaluating to what extent, if any, the clubs have improved or slid back.  Here are just a few observations as we look forward to Saturday's fixtures.

Our Power Rankings did not penalize Pompey for going belly-up financially.  And in our rankings, they were not the worst team in the league--that honor went to Hull.  But as has been pointed out by other observers, there were other teams that might just have easily gone down if not for some good fortune here and there.  Wigan, Wolves, West Ham and even Bolton were all in danger of dropping at some point, and this suggests that at least one of these four teams will be facing a relegation battle in the Spring.

In our view, Blackpool will be this year's Burnley--Hello! Goodbye!.  And although we expect some entertaining football out of the Tangerines, who just signed four young players, their chances of staying up are slim.  The signings suggest Blackpool see this year as an opportunity to develop the club in the long term.  Note that the Tangerines finished sixth last season in the Championship, and only made it to promotion as a result of a playoff.  We think they're very much out of their league.

West Brom's chances of staying up are only slightly better, but look for the baggies to be tough at home, as all indications are there will be some defensive if not completely negative football (depending on your perspective) played at The Hawthorns under the guidance of Roberto di Matteo.

Newcastle, however, will be shooting for mid-table this season, and they have a strong enough club to do it. The year spent down in the Championship gave them an opportunity to reorganize financially and in the clubhouse.  We see them being similar to Stoke and Sunderland--solid, mid-table, average.

This leaves our final relegation team to come from among West Ham, Wigan, Wolves and Bolton.  West Ham has serious questions in the clubhouse and in the front office.  They need to get their finances straightened out and soon.  We like Wolves' chances to stick given Mick McCarthy's proven ability to find line-ups and tactics that earn points, including resting players in games when the odds are longest against them (against Man U last year) to insure points are earned when chances to earn them are more reasonable (against Bolton about a week later).  Wigan, however, is in trouble. They finished just above relegation last year, and they've lost far too many players.  In all honesty, they belong in the Championship. Which is where we think they will be next season.  Our bottom feeders this season: 20. Blackpool, 19. West Brom 18. Wigan.

At the top of the table, it's the usual suspects.  If Arsenal matures and stays healthy, they are capable of challenging for the league title.  There is much talk about Chelsea being a bit long in the tooth, but we think rumors of their demise are smack.  Unfortunately, both Chelsea and the Gunners will have to keep pace with Man U, who looked deep and deadly in the Community Shield.  When Sir Alex sent in three subs at the start of the second half, and the three were Berbatov, Chicharito and Nani, one could not help but marvel at just how deep are the Red Devils. As such, we regret to predict that both the Gunners and the Blues will be chasing Man U this season.  We'll see.

The rest of the field really comes down to Man City, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton.  We see Spurs dropping a bit from last year's form.  Redknapp recently complained that the club needed to act during the current transfer window if they hoped to make a run further up the table, and on top of the pressures of the EPL, the team is in the Champions League.  We don't think that Spurs are deep enough to survive a prolonged competition in Europe AND improve on last year's record in the league; nor do we think their back line will be able to shut down the other top clubs enough to earn many points from Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea, and Man City, which they'll need to do to make any headway.

There is trepidation and hope at Anfield, but we don't see Liverpool challenging seriously for anything more than fourth place.  Torrez is simply not the player the world thinks he is, and Hodgson could be out of his league as manager--despite his stints at Inter (over 10 years ago).

The real beast this year is Man City, who added to an already-loaded club, signing David Silva off an outstanding World Cup for World Champions Spain.  We think Adebayor represents everything that is wrong with contemporary sport---arrogant, talented, lazy, obnoxious--and there are even some signs he might not start alongside Tevez in Mancini's XI.  Regardless, we think City will be better than last year.

As such our top four are: 1. Man U 2. Gunners 3. Man City 4. Chelsea.  We, of course, could be dead wrong.  The one thing we feel very confident about is that Arsenal, City and Chelsea will be scrapping for second place this season, with Spurs dropping in to fifth.

One last point, you need to watch the transfer news every day, as a single big signing could change things.  Chelsea is now (Friday the 13th) reportedly close to signing Neymar, the Wunderkind for Santos in Brazil who looked incredible against the USMNT on Tuesday. Should they sign the young and highly-promising star we'd think it would be worth at least three points in the standings by season's end. Last year, Chelsea beat out Man U by only one point.  And this just in, (seriously, it came up on my browser as I was updating this) Man City have just signed Balotelli from Inter.  Wow.  So it goes...

Below are some links worth checking out if you haven't already. They are in no particular order, other than that we think World Football Daily is the best source out there for US fans of the beautiful game. But we also like the others very, very much.  Hagalo Villa! Te Amo Gunners!

1. World Football Daily
2. EPL Talk
3. UK Guardian EPL Preview Series
4. Football Weekly with James Richardson

Luchametric EPL Power Rankings: Blues, Red Devils, Gunners

By El Chupa
No real movement this week in our EPL Power Rankings. Chelsea remains on top, but there's really very little difference among the top three.  Arsenal has won six matches in the EPL in a row and are scorching hot.  Plus, they have Fabregas back.  If anyone can beat Barca right now over in the Champions League it's the Gunners in absolute peak form.  It should be an exciting last couple of months in the EPL, with three teams competing for the title and four teams (five if you include Everton) competing for the fourth automatic spot in next year's UEFA Champions League: Spurs, Villa, Liverpool and Man City are neck-and-neck for the fourth spot.

Of the four teams competing for number four, Villa is our dark horse, and the team closest to our hearts.  They have given up the fewest GA of all four teams (25) and have the second-best GD at 17 (Man City is first at 16).  Villa are four points behind Spurs with tough away games at Chelsea and Man City left to play; so it certainly won't be easy. Their last two outings have been disappointing home draws to down table Wolves and Sunderland. On this basis, some are counting them out, which would be premature.

At the bottom end, Hull City is by far the poorest performer statistically, with a Luchametric score well over a one full standard deviation off the average and behind Fulham.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal, Spurs

By El Chupa

El Chupa is back after a long hiatus with the updated EPL Power Rankings.  There are no real surprises.  Chelsea is on top followed by Man U and then Arsenal.  Given Chelsea's game in hand over Man U, our readers should not be surprised at the difference between our rankings and the actual point standings. Plus, the difference between the two teams is negligible.


The differences among the top three are also minor.  Chelsea is about .25 of a StandDev above Arsenal, which is not much.  Spurs are a solid fourth but our rankings reveal a small but significant gap between the top three and Spurs.  This is largely due, we think, to the difference between the top three and Spurs in goals scored.  The top three all are at or above 2.3 Goals per Game while Spurs has managed only 1.79.  The bottom line for Spurs fans, however, is that the teams lurking below them are all extremely close in the rankings suggesting strongly that they all have a legitimate shot at the fourth spot and a European tour next year--especially if they have any home games against Spurs left in the schedule (we don't have time to check that out at the moment).

Finally, TOFFEES!  Everton is really too far behind in PTS to crack the top four, but our rankings show what anyone watching Everton at least since Donovan has joined them if not earlier know: the Toffees are tough and virtually a different team than they were when we went on hiatus.  At that time, their LM ranking was in the negative and they were well down in the standings.  Now they are a rock solid fifth and ranked ahead of teams ahead of them in the actual PTS standings including Liverpool.  We stand by our rankings.  Everton beat Chelsea and Man U in February before their no-doubt-disappointing loss to Spurs at White Hart Lane later in the month.  Teams going to Everton the rest of the season will face a tough opponent in excellent form. We dig it.

EPL Handicapping: Aston Villa over Hull City

By El Chupacabra
Villa over Hull at Villa Park (no U.S. TV). Do it. Here's why.

This is not a terribly interesting weekend in EPL betting-wise or even just in terms of good matches. Regarding the latter, Chelsea at Man City could be a good one to watch (its the only one that looks remotely interesting), but we think Chelsea will choke off City's attack and then dutifully put in a goal or two (or three). But other than this contest, there are no marquee match ups.

Hull at Villa is the best bet of the weekend. Villa at home at -220 earns you just under 50% and its the surest thing you'll find this weekend at decent odds. Remember, look for home teams you think have the best chance of winning and try to stay around a 50% return or better. Villa leads Hull in the Luchametric by over 1.0 StandDevs. Hull's recent form is definitely better than Villa, but Villa is at home looking for a sure three points from a league bottom-feeder. What's more, Villa are one of four finalists in the Carling Cup and have not lost at home since the opening day of the season, winning four of their last six matches in front of their own fans.

OUR PREDICTION: Villa to win.

MONEY LINE: Villa-220 Hull +755 Draw +358

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Villa - The Villans have an advantage of nearly 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicative of a significant competitive difference between any two teams.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Villa played at Portsmouth Tuesday in the Carling Cup. Hull has rested since last weekend's match away. Still, Hull has to travel to 137 miles or 2.5 hours by bus to get to Villa Park.

MOTIVATION: Draw - Villa's recent form and position in the table give them all the incentive in the world to grab three points and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Hull look to continue their recent form and continue to climb out of relegation and erase the nightmare of the first few weeks of the season.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Hull. Hull has earned nine points in their last six matches, Villa seven. Hull has two wins and two draws in their last four.

INJURIES: Draw - Both teams have have a few injuries but no major absences to report.

EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea

By El Chupacabra

The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's fixtures. As always you may download an Excel file with the data here. Chelsea is on top (duh) followed by Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. Chelsea has opened quite a bit of space in the official table and in the rankings. They are now nearly a full StandDev (.92) over second place Man U. We have Arsenal ahead of Spurs by .37 of a Stand Dev. We think the nine goals Spurs scored against Wigan were a fluke and that they'll move further down the rankings in the weeks ahead.

Chelsea's dominance is most obvious on defense. They allow the fewest Goals Against per game in the league (.57), the fewest Shots on Goal Against per game in the league (2.5) and the lowest percentage of SOGA to SHTs Against (.26). This latter stat tells us that only 26% of the oppositions' shots are actually on goal, giving us a sense of how few quality chances Chelsea actually allows its opponents (the league average is 37%)

They also lead the league in Recent Form, and have now beaten Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. The season is far from over, and Man U lurks five points behind with a home game against Chelsea still to come. But seriously people, the Blues have a shot at the EPL crown, the Champions league and the FA cup. I'd still take Barca over Chelsea at this point, but what a match it would be.

Arsenal and Chelsea Outpace the Pack in Updated Power Rankings

By El Chupacabra
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Monday's match at Anfield. Arsenal is back on top followed, again extremely closely, by Chelsea. Man U and Man City round out the top four but are significantly back of the top two.

Notice that a mere .16th of a StandDev separates the Gunners from the Blues. Chelsea has more points and more wins, but Arsenal has more goals (as always, you can look at the comprehensive data here). The Goal Differential of both teams is nearly identical: 22 for Arsenal; 21 for Chelsea. Arsenal has played one game less than Chelsea, and this accounts for the difference in wins to some extent.

Before you Blues fans blow a gasket, consider that the difference between the two teams is really negligible, at least statistically, but it comes down to this: Arsenal is a better offensive club, Chelsea the better defensive club. And Chelsea is probably more balanced overall.
The Luchametric weighs a number of different variables, and it could be that we need to look at the defensive side of the model. We have a measure for Quality Scoring Chances, for example, and in this measure Arsenal is clearly superior. But we're still looking at comprenhesive statistical measures of a team's defense.

We can say this, however: A full 42 % of the Gunners' Shots on Goal become goals, compared to 30% for Chelsea. That's a 25% difference. Also, 32% of Arsenal's SOG Against become Goals Against, compared to 25% for Chelsea (the league average is 25%; the league leaders are Villa with an impressively low 18%). Arsenal allows 1.27 GA per game, while Chelsea allows a mere .67 GA per game. And Chelsea allows only 2.67 SOGA per game, while Arsenal allows 4.0 SOGA. That's fairly significant. Chelsea is unbelievably stingy. You may have noticed on Sunday if you caught the game against Man U that Chelsea had the usual four man back line, but then frequently had another two men behind that. They were in essence playing a sort of 2-4-3-1 or you could just call it a 5-4-1. This shows both their respect for Man U and the genius of Ancelotti.

At this point, given the history of the league and of the big four, its understandable why so much attention still gets paid to Liverpool, who really are in trouble at this point, and that so many people continue to doubt Wenger's confidence that his club is playing for the title. But the evidence is clear: this year, barring injuries (Bendtner), Chelsea and Arsenal are the cream of the league. We look forward to the November 29 match at Emirates against Chelsea. This will be the true test of the two teams and should be some outstanding football. The league's best attacking club against the league's most balanced and most stingy club. At Stamford bridge, we'd take Chelsea, but at Emirates, Arsenal will give the Blues all they can handle.

EPL Power Rankings: Blues on Top

By El Chupacabra

The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Wednesday's West Ham v Villa fixture. Chelsea is on top followed EXTREMELY closely by Arsenal. Man U and Man City round out the top four.

Chelsea's nine wins has put them on top of the official league table and at the top of our power rankings. They also allow very few Goals, Shots, and Shots on Goal compared to the rest of the league. Arsenal has scored a league-leading 32 total goals which has contributed much to it's place in the standings. The Gunners have a game in hand and with Chelsea and Man U playing next weekend, Arsenal will have a chance to pass Man U in the official table when they visit Wolves.

Other movement worth noting. Villa have dropped below Spurs as a result of their loss to the Hammers. West Ham itself is much higher in our table than in the official table. We stand by our rankings. The Hammers are better than the results they've achieved thus far.

Also, Portsmouth has climbed out of the cellar and perhaps have turned things around. We shall see.

We'll have more to report once we crunch the numbers.

EPL Handicapping: Gunners over Spurs

By El Chupacabra
Gunners over Spurs (8:30 EDT on ESPN2). Do it. Here's why.

The odds aren't great, but we think talk of Spurs going into Emirates and earning the draw, let alone the win, is mistaken. Here's the key: Spurs' defense is far weaker. They allow far more Shots, Shots on Goal, and Corners Against than do the Gunners. Yes, the Spurs score goals, but they've scored far fewer than Wenger's XI. And in our measure of Quality Chances Created, the Gunners are far superior. For example, Arsenal scores a goal 40% of the time when they create a SOG compared to the Spurs' 31% (the league average is 28%). And the Gunners lead Spurs in Goals per game, 3.22 to 2.10. They've both allowed the same number of Goals Against per Game, which may speak to the Gunners' goalkeeping woes. Regardless, the rest of the numbers reveal how loose Spurs is at the back. Overall, we consider Arsenal to be a better side by far and the cream of the EPL at this moment (along with Chelsea). We're thinking Gunners 3 Spurs 1.

OUR PREDICTION: Arsenal to Win.

MONEY LINE: Arsenal -180 Spurs +500 Draw +275

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Arsenal - The Gunners have an advantage of 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicating a significant competitive difference between any two teams. Further, in the raw metric measuring production per game Arsenal are nearly twice as good as Spurs. And our measure of Quality Scoring Chances has them nearly three StandDevs over Tottenham. Look for Arsenal to light Spurs up at home on Saturday.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Both teams played at home midweek in the Carling Cup. And this is a North London Derby, so both teams will be rested and won't have to travel. But Arsenal is at home and will still have a slight-to-significant advantage.

MOTIVATION Draw: This is a Derby and both teams will be up for the game. Spurs want to prove they are a top four team. But Keane has run his mouth off, and I suspect the home fans at Emirates will let him know it, the twit.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Arsenal. The Gunners have earned thirteen points in their last six matches, Spurs a mere 7. And Arsenal just beat Liverpool. Keane is going to eat his words.

INJURIES: Advantage: Spurs - Arsenal just got their starting keeper back--and just lost him for three more weeks. Almunia has been in Wenger's dog house but might get the chance to regain his manager's confidence on Saturday, given that Mannone made a rather egregious error against West Ham last Sunday, leading to a goal that started the Hammers' comeback, which resulted in Arsenal blowing a two-goal lead and letting a sure three points slip away.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Gunners Still on Top

By El Chupacabra
The EPL Power Rankings have been updated in time for this weekend's fixtures. As always, you can access the data here. Arsenal is still on top followed by Chelsea, Man U and Man City. The top two teams are within .5 Standard Deviations of each other, indicating relative competitive equality. The Gunners have created some significant daylight between themselves and Man City, Liverpool and Spurs, indicating they are considerably better than the latter three teams.

Yeah, yeah, our rankings are different than the actual standings--that's the point. Our metric takes far more variables into consideration than do the standings, which only consider and weight wins and draws. Our rankings are thus more accurate, in our humble opinion.

Notice too that our bottom three are different from the official standings as well. Don't count West Ham out just yet people. Even the talking heads on Super Sunday think they are a better club than they've shown thus far, as the draw against Arsenal at home indicates. One final observation worth noting, we've got Stoke rather far down our table. Will look at it more closely and report back in the next few days. Full disclosure: El Chupa roots for the Gunners. Boo YAH!

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Luchametric 3.0

By El Chupa
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's match between Sunderland and Wolves. We've simplified the chart to make it easier for our loyal readers. The chart now provides the Luchametric score, the number of Standard Deviations above or below the mean (Z Score) of the club's Luchametric score, and finally, the actual number of points the club has earned thus far to allow for comparisons.

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are now making the Luchametric data available to our readers as an Excel spreadsheet. Look at the top of column two to the right to find the link. The MLS data will be available later today.

No real changes this week, except that Man U is gaining on Chelsea, and there is now little daylight separating the two clubs. Also, Spurs are lower than both Man City and Arsenal, in spite of being ahead in the actual standings. We stand by our rankings.

Finally, we have some bad news for Burnley fans, something we've observed for the last few weeks but have held back commenting on. In spite of their nine points, Burnely lag far behind the rest of the league in the Luchametric's overall measure of production. In our view, Burnley actually are in grave danger of being relegated. We don't see them earning many points the rest of the year given the overall numbers unless things start to pick up for them and toot sweet. They are far below the league averages for Shots, Shots on Goal, and Goals Scored. You heard it here first.

EPL Handicapping: Betting Advice on this Week's Fixtures

By El Chupa
It's probably worth pointing out at this point that El Chupa and El Luchador have slightly different betting strategies.

El Luchador likes to go for the big fish. He trolls the deep water for the big catches, i.e., low percentage wagers with high payouts. His balls are large.

El Chupa lacks the intestinal fortitude of his mentor and instead looks for high percentage wagers that pay less-than-even odds. This can still be a substantial percentage of the original wager (50-90%) but certainly not double the money or better. Slow and steady is his motto.

This tends to result in El Luchador going for parlays that will pay big when they come in, while El Chupa looks for parlays that are virtually sure things (if there is such a thing) but offer less of a reward. It also means El Chupa is VERY judicious about the straight bets he makes. El Luchador? Not so much. . .

This also means that El Chupa often uses his statistical acumen, such as it is, to identify matches one should AVOID, as well as matches that look like high percentage wagers. When he can find a match he think is both a solid wager AND +100 or better odds, he is VERY happy.

So, on to this week's picks.

Everton at Portsmouth - This one is intriguing as Everton is being given only -115, practically begging you to put $15 on what looks like a mismatch. We don't like Everton's defense at all, they're giving up too many goals. And they haven't earned a single point away from home. But Portsmouth looks so freaking helpless that it's hard to predict when they will break out of their funk. It certainly will be at home, right? But against Everton? We think not. This match could also make one game of a parlay, as the -115 will help boost your payout if you pick a DEFINITE mismatch like Burnley at Spurs, which we think will result in Spurs demolishing the visiting side. Currently, our book is paying +140 on a two-game parlay of Everton and Spurs.

Aston Villa at Blackburn - This match is intriguing as we have Villa rated very high in the power rankings, and the +120 odds are attractive. However, our data also tells us that Blackburn doesn't give up shots, doesn't give up shots on goal, and doesn't give up corners. They are right at the league average for GA with 8. So Villa has their work cut out for them. El Chupa will be very tempted to look at this one closely and take a straight bet on one of these two teams.

Arsenal at Fulham - It's tempting to think Fulham will play Arsenal tough at Craven Cottage (coolest freaking name ever), but we think Arsenal will overpower the homeside and quite possibly when by a two-goal margin. We've been unimpressed with Fulham so far, and think that they look like goals will be hard to come by. They only have 16 SOG all season and only Burnley is worse with 13 (the league average is 27). The over is not paying well, and we can't see Fulham winning a goal-fest. This would be a good match for a parlay.

Upset of the week: Man U at Stoke - Do we think Stoke will beat Man U? No. But at +675, wtf? Put up $5. Man U is going to give up goals this year, and they will lose one or two more matches to the likes of Burnley. So, trust your gut, or not, whatever. Fuck Man U.