Luchametric English Premier League 2010-2011 Preview...of Sorts [updated]

Final 2009-10 EPL Luchametric Power Rankings

By MJD

 The EPL Resumes play in earnest on Saturday, and we at the Luchametric Institute rejoice in the return of early-Saturday-morning football.

To the left are the final Power Rankings from last season.  As a measure of where the teams are at the start of this year, however--they are fairly unhelpful.  As a general rule in sports ranking systems and prediction, the previous season's standings and performances are poor predictors of the subsequent season's performance.  But they at least provide us with a sense of how things stacked up at the end of last year, and so offer a baseline for evaluating to what extent, if any, the clubs have improved or slid back.  Here are just a few observations as we look forward to Saturday's fixtures.

Our Power Rankings did not penalize Pompey for going belly-up financially.  And in our rankings, they were not the worst team in the league--that honor went to Hull.  But as has been pointed out by other observers, there were other teams that might just have easily gone down if not for some good fortune here and there.  Wigan, Wolves, West Ham and even Bolton were all in danger of dropping at some point, and this suggests that at least one of these four teams will be facing a relegation battle in the Spring.

In our view, Blackpool will be this year's Burnley--Hello! Goodbye!.  And although we expect some entertaining football out of the Tangerines, who just signed four young players, their chances of staying up are slim.  The signings suggest Blackpool see this year as an opportunity to develop the club in the long term.  Note that the Tangerines finished sixth last season in the Championship, and only made it to promotion as a result of a playoff.  We think they're very much out of their league.

West Brom's chances of staying up are only slightly better, but look for the baggies to be tough at home, as all indications are there will be some defensive if not completely negative football (depending on your perspective) played at The Hawthorns under the guidance of Roberto di Matteo.

Newcastle, however, will be shooting for mid-table this season, and they have a strong enough club to do it. The year spent down in the Championship gave them an opportunity to reorganize financially and in the clubhouse.  We see them being similar to Stoke and Sunderland--solid, mid-table, average.

This leaves our final relegation team to come from among West Ham, Wigan, Wolves and Bolton.  West Ham has serious questions in the clubhouse and in the front office.  They need to get their finances straightened out and soon.  We like Wolves' chances to stick given Mick McCarthy's proven ability to find line-ups and tactics that earn points, including resting players in games when the odds are longest against them (against Man U last year) to insure points are earned when chances to earn them are more reasonable (against Bolton about a week later).  Wigan, however, is in trouble. They finished just above relegation last year, and they've lost far too many players.  In all honesty, they belong in the Championship. Which is where we think they will be next season.  Our bottom feeders this season: 20. Blackpool, 19. West Brom 18. Wigan.

At the top of the table, it's the usual suspects.  If Arsenal matures and stays healthy, they are capable of challenging for the league title.  There is much talk about Chelsea being a bit long in the tooth, but we think rumors of their demise are smack.  Unfortunately, both Chelsea and the Gunners will have to keep pace with Man U, who looked deep and deadly in the Community Shield.  When Sir Alex sent in three subs at the start of the second half, and the three were Berbatov, Chicharito and Nani, one could not help but marvel at just how deep are the Red Devils. As such, we regret to predict that both the Gunners and the Blues will be chasing Man U this season.  We'll see.

The rest of the field really comes down to Man City, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton.  We see Spurs dropping a bit from last year's form.  Redknapp recently complained that the club needed to act during the current transfer window if they hoped to make a run further up the table, and on top of the pressures of the EPL, the team is in the Champions League.  We don't think that Spurs are deep enough to survive a prolonged competition in Europe AND improve on last year's record in the league; nor do we think their back line will be able to shut down the other top clubs enough to earn many points from Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea, and Man City, which they'll need to do to make any headway.

There is trepidation and hope at Anfield, but we don't see Liverpool challenging seriously for anything more than fourth place.  Torrez is simply not the player the world thinks he is, and Hodgson could be out of his league as manager--despite his stints at Inter (over 10 years ago).

The real beast this year is Man City, who added to an already-loaded club, signing David Silva off an outstanding World Cup for World Champions Spain.  We think Adebayor represents everything that is wrong with contemporary sport---arrogant, talented, lazy, obnoxious--and there are even some signs he might not start alongside Tevez in Mancini's XI.  Regardless, we think City will be better than last year.

As such our top four are: 1. Man U 2. Gunners 3. Man City 4. Chelsea.  We, of course, could be dead wrong.  The one thing we feel very confident about is that Arsenal, City and Chelsea will be scrapping for second place this season, with Spurs dropping in to fifth.

One last point, you need to watch the transfer news every day, as a single big signing could change things.  Chelsea is now (Friday the 13th) reportedly close to signing Neymar, the Wunderkind for Santos in Brazil who looked incredible against the USMNT on Tuesday. Should they sign the young and highly-promising star we'd think it would be worth at least three points in the standings by season's end. Last year, Chelsea beat out Man U by only one point.  And this just in, (seriously, it came up on my browser as I was updating this) Man City have just signed Balotelli from Inter.  Wow.  So it goes...

Below are some links worth checking out if you haven't already. They are in no particular order, other than that we think World Football Daily is the best source out there for US fans of the beautiful game. But we also like the others very, very much.  Hagalo Villa! Te Amo Gunners!

1. World Football Daily
2. EPL Talk
3. UK Guardian EPL Preview Series
4. Football Weekly with James Richardson

EPL Handicapping: The Beauty of Relegation

By El Chupa

There will be some great football this weekend in the EPL.  Here are some matches to watch and why:

Villa at Chelsea (10:45 A.M. EDT ESPN Classic) - Chelsea absolutely need three points to stay in the running with Arsenal and Man U for the league title. They also will want revenge for the loss at Villa Park early in the season. Villa are looking to secure a spot next season in Europe in either the Champions or Europa leagues and need three points if they hope to steal the fourth spot in the league from Spurs. Villa have given up fewer goals on the road than at home this season, and they are tied with Man U for the fewest GA in the league (25). If anyone in the league can keep Chelsea and Drogba at bay for 90 minutes at Stamford Bridge, its the Villains.  Punters should avoid this one, however, or throw the dice for the draw or maybe the under.  The odds on Chelsea aren't worth it.

Fulham at Hull City (6 P.M. Fox Soccer Channel; delayed )- Given how superior a team they are to the Tigers, Fulham is being given odds that look generous at first glance (+220) .  But Fulham is out of contention for the top seven in the league and are playing on the road against a team fighting to avoid relegation.  If Fulham shows up, this should be a fierce contest.  But if you think the Tigers are going to fight like hell against a team already thinking about the beaches of Spain, Hull at +140 is not a bad punt.

Everton at Wolves (5:00 P.M. EDT Fox Soccer Plus; delayed) - Everton have an outside chance at the fourth spot in the league, and certainly are looking to make it to the Europa league at worst.  But they need points every time out from now until the end of the season to do so.  Wolves, on the other hand, are in danger of relegation, and they need points just to survive--especially at home.  Everton are the superior side by far.  But they will be without Donovan, and it will be interesting to see if the Toffees continue to surge without the American star whose arrival coincided with the revival of the team's fortunes.  We like Everton at +105, but it's not a sure thing against a Wolves team whose last three games have gone quite well and who have their backs to the wall.

EPL Handicapping: Aston Villa over Hull City

By El Chupacabra
Villa over Hull at Villa Park (no U.S. TV). Do it. Here's why.

This is not a terribly interesting weekend in EPL betting-wise or even just in terms of good matches. Regarding the latter, Chelsea at Man City could be a good one to watch (its the only one that looks remotely interesting), but we think Chelsea will choke off City's attack and then dutifully put in a goal or two (or three). But other than this contest, there are no marquee match ups.

Hull at Villa is the best bet of the weekend. Villa at home at -220 earns you just under 50% and its the surest thing you'll find this weekend at decent odds. Remember, look for home teams you think have the best chance of winning and try to stay around a 50% return or better. Villa leads Hull in the Luchametric by over 1.0 StandDevs. Hull's recent form is definitely better than Villa, but Villa is at home looking for a sure three points from a league bottom-feeder. What's more, Villa are one of four finalists in the Carling Cup and have not lost at home since the opening day of the season, winning four of their last six matches in front of their own fans.

OUR PREDICTION: Villa to win.

MONEY LINE: Villa-220 Hull +755 Draw +358

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Villa - The Villans have an advantage of nearly 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicative of a significant competitive difference between any two teams.

RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Villa played at Portsmouth Tuesday in the Carling Cup. Hull has rested since last weekend's match away. Still, Hull has to travel to 137 miles or 2.5 hours by bus to get to Villa Park.

MOTIVATION: Draw - Villa's recent form and position in the table give them all the incentive in the world to grab three points and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Hull look to continue their recent form and continue to climb out of relegation and erase the nightmare of the first few weeks of the season.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Hull. Hull has earned nine points in their last six matches, Villa seven. Hull has two wins and two draws in their last four.

INJURIES: Draw - Both teams have have a few injuries but no major absences to report.

EPL Handicapping: Manchester City to Win Over Fulham at Home

By El Luchador
Manchester City are at home against Fulham this weekend at a critical time, and the Luchametric combined with our learned analysis points toward a victory. Despite the likely absence of Adebayor, Bellamy and Toure, City will close this deal. Do it.
OUR PREDICTION: Manchester City to Win.
MONEY LINE: Man City -222 TIE +300 Fulham +625
LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage City. Almost 1 standard deviation separates these two teams as measured by the patented Luchametric power ranking system. On offense, City are averaging 2 goals per game, and Fulham are fourth from the bottom of the league in goals scored per game at less than 1. Also, Fulham are sound and fury signifying nothing: American Clint Dempsey is hitting 3.25 shots per game this season, the fourth highest rate. But he hasn’t scored a single goal.

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage City: City have been home for two weeks having faced neighboring Wigan just 30 miles down the road in a 1-1 tie on Oct. 18. Fulham will have played 3 games in 7 days having faced Hull City at home Monday (2-0 win) and AC Roma (2-1 loss) at home on Thursday in Europa Cup action before traveling 200 miles for this match at Man City.
HOME –v- AWAY FORM – Advantage City. City have not lost or tied a single home match all season in all competition (3-0 at home in EPL play). Fulham meanwhile have won only one game on the road, a lame, 1-0 victory over the even lamer Portsmouth on Sept. 15.
MOTIVATION Draw: It's early in the season yet, so both these teams have plenty to play for and have had good recent form. Fulham are coming off a convincing 2-0 home win against Hull on Monday. As Liverpool falter, City are in a position to vault into the top 4 with a win.
HISTORY Advantage City: City lead in all competitions, 23-13-17. City and Fulham have already met once this season with City winning 2-1 Sept. 23 at home in the Carling Cup.
RECENT FORM Advantage City: City – TTWWLW (11), Fulham – WTWLLL (7). Man City’s only loss this season has come against top flight opposition on the road: A 4-3 away loss to rival Manchester United on Sept. 20. City have won their last 6 EPL matches, and 12 of their last 13 games. City go for the win at home. They have gone 26 home games without a draw, the 10th-longest streak in EPL history.
INJURIES Draw:This is where City will prove that they have depth. CITY OUT E Adebayor (Ankle/Foot) Injury; C Bellamy Groin Strain; K Toure Ankle/Foot; N Onuoha Thigh Muscle Strain; Robinho Ankle/Foot; B Mwaruwari Hip/Thigh. FULHAM OUT: D Stockdale Knee Injury; S Davies Ankle/Foot; T Kallio Achilles Heal.

If your children need new shoes, take the money you have saved and invest it in this match. Use the proceeds to buy the little rug rats two pair. This is a lock: Man City to win Sunday over Fulham.

EPL Handicapping: Betting Advice on this Week's Fixtures

By El Chupa
It's probably worth pointing out at this point that El Chupa and El Luchador have slightly different betting strategies.

El Luchador likes to go for the big fish. He trolls the deep water for the big catches, i.e., low percentage wagers with high payouts. His balls are large.

El Chupa lacks the intestinal fortitude of his mentor and instead looks for high percentage wagers that pay less-than-even odds. This can still be a substantial percentage of the original wager (50-90%) but certainly not double the money or better. Slow and steady is his motto.

This tends to result in El Luchador going for parlays that will pay big when they come in, while El Chupa looks for parlays that are virtually sure things (if there is such a thing) but offer less of a reward. It also means El Chupa is VERY judicious about the straight bets he makes. El Luchador? Not so much. . .

This also means that El Chupa often uses his statistical acumen, such as it is, to identify matches one should AVOID, as well as matches that look like high percentage wagers. When he can find a match he think is both a solid wager AND +100 or better odds, he is VERY happy.

So, on to this week's picks.

Everton at Portsmouth - This one is intriguing as Everton is being given only -115, practically begging you to put $15 on what looks like a mismatch. We don't like Everton's defense at all, they're giving up too many goals. And they haven't earned a single point away from home. But Portsmouth looks so freaking helpless that it's hard to predict when they will break out of their funk. It certainly will be at home, right? But against Everton? We think not. This match could also make one game of a parlay, as the -115 will help boost your payout if you pick a DEFINITE mismatch like Burnley at Spurs, which we think will result in Spurs demolishing the visiting side. Currently, our book is paying +140 on a two-game parlay of Everton and Spurs.

Aston Villa at Blackburn - This match is intriguing as we have Villa rated very high in the power rankings, and the +120 odds are attractive. However, our data also tells us that Blackburn doesn't give up shots, doesn't give up shots on goal, and doesn't give up corners. They are right at the league average for GA with 8. So Villa has their work cut out for them. El Chupa will be very tempted to look at this one closely and take a straight bet on one of these two teams.

Arsenal at Fulham - It's tempting to think Fulham will play Arsenal tough at Craven Cottage (coolest freaking name ever), but we think Arsenal will overpower the homeside and quite possibly when by a two-goal margin. We've been unimpressed with Fulham so far, and think that they look like goals will be hard to come by. They only have 16 SOG all season and only Burnley is worse with 13 (the league average is 27). The over is not paying well, and we can't see Fulham winning a goal-fest. This would be a good match for a parlay.

Upset of the week: Man U at Stoke - Do we think Stoke will beat Man U? No. But at +675, wtf? Put up $5. Man U is going to give up goals this year, and they will lose one or two more matches to the likes of Burnley. So, trust your gut, or not, whatever. Fuck Man U.