Sporting KC and Home Field Advantage in Soccer: A Luchametric Quickie

By MJD

Last night Sporting KC got its first home goal and its first home win, beating a surging San Jose club at Livestrong Sporting Park 1-0. We had predicted a SJO win, what with their lead-leading 1.54 Goals For per Game average going into the match, and their excellent recent form: 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 matches.  But KC looked better than we've seen them all year and prevailed in what we thought was a tight match.  In thinking about what we had missed in our analysis of the match, we realized that we had forgotten the most fundamental truth about professional soccer and about wagering on professional soccer: the 50/25/25 rule.

What's that you say? The facts are that in top leagues across the globe, including the EPL and the MLS, all things being equal, the home team will win 50% of the time, the away team 25% of the time, and the teams will draw 25% of the time.  That this is so is just part of the deep fabric of the game, decreed by the soccer gods long ago.  There have been various reasons put forth for this phenomenon, to travel demands on players, familiarity with the pitch, to the energy of the home crowd supporting the home team.  But we'll save any in-depth discussion of home field advantage for another post.

Here's the quickie.  Going into last night's match, KC had played 12 games, 11 of them on the road. In a normal season, half of those 12 games would have been at home, where (again, all things being equal) they would have won a full 50% of those matches (let's call it 6 home games just to make our back-of-a-napkin analysis easy).

Applying the 50/25/25 rule, KC's point total from 6 home games and 6 road games would be 10.5 pts from the home matches (3 wins and 1.5 draws) plus 6 pts from the road matches (1.5 road wins, 1.5 road draws) for a total of 16.5 pts total, not the 10 they were sitting on going into last night's match.

The point is that playing on the road for 11 games to open the season has distorted KC's record considerably, by about 34% or more.  This means they are a considerably better club than they've been given credit for.

Playing on the road in any league is tough, resulting in fewer chances created, more chances allowed, more mental mistakes, etc. KC has more home games left in their schedule than any other club.  Their PTS/GM will inevitably go up.  They will beat clubs at home that are substantially higher than them in the standings.  The only caveat to the 50/25/25 rule is that if two teams are not equal in strength, then the percentages get adjusted to the point that with two very uneven teams, the numbers change to 65/17/17 or even higher.

Our claim is that KC probably belongs in the middle of the pack, not down at the bottom with the likes of New England, who have no excuses.

Luchametric MLS Weekend Fixtures Handicapping: Crew, Houston, RSL, and San Jose

By MJD

Nordecke Luchador has evolved over the last year into its own unique brand.  From the heady daze of Gonzo Crew fanaticism, we now offer EPL and MLS statistical analysis, EPL, MLS and World Cup handicapping as well as tactical insight into the beautiful game.


In the spirit of Kaizen, the Japanese virtue of "continuous improvement," we offer our latest data chart for our loyal readers.

To the left are this weekend's fixtures in the MLS.  For each match we provide the moneyline and the decimal odds.  Next, we provide our readers with how these odds translate into probabilities.  For example, in the first fixture, D.C. is being given +175 or a 36% chance at a home win;  Chivas is being given +192 or a 34% chance of an away win.   IMPORTANT! Punters should always remember that these percentages should be compared to the historical probabilities that 50% of all professional matches end in a home win; 25% in an away win; and 25% in a draw--unless there is a substantial difference in team strengths.

So, for this fixture, the books have lowered the chance of a D.C. home win by 14 percentage points and raised the chance of a Chivas road win by 9 percentage points.  The chance for a draw is thus around 30%.

But we go even further.  The fourth column tells the prospective punter the percentage payout of their wager.  Thus, a successful bet on D.C. will earn you 175% of your initial bet; a successful bet on Chivas will earn you 192%.  So a $10 bet on D.C. gets you 17.50. Nice.

But wait! We then provide you with our own analysis of the value of the wager.  As a general rule of thumb, smart punters should compare the probability offered by the books to their own estimation of the probability of bet being successful.  Continuing with our example, we need to ask ourselves the following: "Ok, all things being equal, the home team should win 50% of the time. However, D.C. is a weaker team than Chivas.  That means that the chance of D.C. winning is less than 50%. The books say that it's as bad as 36%.  Do I think its worse or better than 36%?"

Answer?  If you think there is a 5% or higher difference between the probability offered by the books and your own independent estimation of the probability of a team winning, then that bet is most likely what the professional punters call "a value bet."  Here's why.

If the books say D.C. has only a 36% chance of winning, but you think their chance is actually 41% or higher, then the amount of money the books are offering you is actually higher than it "should" be.  Remember, the higher the probability of a win, the lower the books pay out.

Further, a value bet is one where the amount of risk is "worth" the potential payout.  Bookies want to offer you less money for your risk than is "fair" or "real."  So, if you can find a match where you believe the books have it wrong and the actual probability of your team winning is higher than they've determined, then you've found a bet that will pay out more for your risk than the books would pay out if they had gotten the odds right in the first place.  In D.C.'s case, the books have set the odds at 36% and are offering you a payout of 175%.  If the books thought the probability was 41% or greater, they would pay winners less than 175%  As such, if you've decided that D.C. actually has a 41% chance or higher (let's face it, Chivas isn't very good) then taking D.C. to win at home would be a value bet. 

But what does Nordecke Luchador think about this match?

Our final column provides you with our advice for every match this weekend.  Our recommendations are based on A) our determination of the value of the odds being offered; and B) our usual statistical comparison of the two clubs including the Luchametric power rankings.  If we recommend a team, we think its a value bet with a high probability relative to the risk.  This week, we think C-Bus, Houston, RSL and San Jose all fit the bill.  And we think the D.C. v Chivas match should be avoided like the plague.

And remember, we don't recommend parlays ever.  Do your homework and pick your spots.  For example, Donovan is up with the USMNT.  We think that makes the Crew an even more valuable bet against LA than the numbers alone might suggest.  However, Houston is being given a 68% chance of a win, and we think it's definitely even higher. Indeed, this match probably represents the bet with the highest probability and the lowest risk of the weekend.  But the probability of both Houston and the Crew winning in a parlay is a rather low 30%.  If you bump the Crew's probability up to 51%, the parlay would still only be at 35%.  The probability of Houston, the Crew AND San Jose all winning? 17%.  RSL actually represents the wager with the highest value (in our view) as the payout is 69% on your wager (compared to 46% for Houston) and we think the probability of a RSL win could be as much as 10 percentage points higher than what the books have it at.  That's some sweet action.

Finally, it's important to note that we've excluded draws in our chart because draws never, ever offer high percentage probabilities nor value bets.  That's a maxim of betting on soccer we've learned from our secondary research (seriously).  And you can take that to the bank. C-Bus 'till I die!

Toronto to Win at Home over San Jose

By El Luchador
San Jose Earthquakes at Toronto FC 4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10
As a Crew fan, it is hard for El Luchador to lay his money down on the Red soccer team from the Great White North. These are the hosers who bring busloads of mouth-breathing drunken Rush fans across the border each year to Crew Stadium to cheer a draw like it’s an FA Cup win and try to have their way with our women. But alas, the Masked One’s MLS pick of the week is Toronto at home to win over San Jose.
OUR PREDICTION: TOR to Win
MONEY LINE Toronto -153 TIE +250 San Jose +350
LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage TOR: TOR -0.15, SJ -0.85. Very little separates these two teams statistically, but the patented Luchametric system measuring total production over the season gives a slight edge to TOR.
RECENT TRAVEL Advantage TOR: SJ will travel 2,250 miles after dropping their home closer 2-1 to Dallas Wednesday night, and this will be their 3^rd game in 7 days. TOR have been resting comfortably at home since returning Sunday from a 2-2 tie to Chicago last Saturday, which kept their playoff hopes alive.
HOME –v- AWAY FORM – Advantage TOR. BMO Field has been a virtual fortress for TOR in MLS play. They have not lost at home since a 2-0 June 6 loss to LA. And they have only 3 home losses in league play all year. TOR have never lost their home closer.
INSPIRATION Advantage TOR: With their disappointing loss to DAL Wednesday, SJ have nothing to play for but their pride, such as it is. TOR are still very much alive in the playoff hunt, and this game is a must win.
HISTORY Advantage TOR: TOR beat SJ this year in the away leg July 11. In 2008 TOR lost one and tied one. (2007 was TOR’s first year in the league, and SJ had not yet returned from their hiatus).
RECENT FORM Advantage SJ: TOR– TLWLTL (5), SJ – LWWTTL (8)
INDIVIDUAL PLAY Advantage TOR: SJ Goalkeeper Joe Cannon has given up more goals (44) than anyone in the league. Neither team has an offensive superstar with league-leading stats in any category.
INJURIES Advantage TOR: While the Reds list DF Marvell Wynne as questionable, El Luchador’s sources say, he likely will play. SJ sorely miss the services of English attacking MF Darren Huckerby. SJ OUT: MF Darren Huckerby (R hip surgery); MF Andre Luiz (L knee sprain); QUESTIONABLE: FW Cornell Glen (R knee sprain); DF Jason Hernandez (L hamstring strain). TOR OUT: MF Carl Robinson (facial bone fracture); QUESTIONABLE: DF Marvell Wynne (quad); PROBABLE: DF Adrian Serioux (neck); FW Pablo Vitti (quad)

It does pain us to make this pick, my brothers and sister in Black and Gold, but the facts speak for themselves: At -153 at home, to stay in the hunt for their first ever playoff bid, Toronto FC are a good bet to win this one.

MLS Handicapping: Dallas at San Jose

By El Luchador and El Chupacabra
Here's the Masked One’s look at the MLS midweek fixture featuring Dallas at San Jose. These two teams are extremely closely matched, and this one is probably only for our most compulsive brothers and sisters. SJ is in second-to-last place in the league table. But with some recent decent form they have crawled their way up to 28 PTS overall, a mere 5 pts behind DAL. The patented LUCHAMETRIC system places these two bottom feeders only .62 of a Standard Deviation apart, which is largely due to Dallas' considerable advantage in Total Goals Scored, 45 to SJ's 32. The numbers tell us that DAL create more shots but only slightly more Shots on Goal. However, in our measure of Quality Scoring Chances, Dallas have an advantage. Still, this one is very close. Both have a good recent form at +2 (Wins minus Losses last four games). El Luchador and El Chupa both recommend sitting this one out, but if you have to bet to earn back some of the kids' milk money that you lost last week betting on Colorado yet again, try taking the Earthquakes or better yet the tie.

MONEY LINE
DAL -120 Draw +210 SJO +120

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage DAL: -.08 to -.70

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage SJO - DAL have not played since last Wednesday at home, but will travel nearly 1,500 miles for this match.

INSPIRATION Advantage DAL - SJO are playing for pride, DAL have three games with which to produce as many PTS as possible and thus overtake New England for the last playoff spot. With COL and SEA looming, this is a must win, and 3 points on the road at SJO coupled with a New England loss to the Crew (yeah baby!) would put DAL within three PTS of NE. Plus, SJ will be playing on three days rest after their 1-0 home victory over the Red Bulls.

HISTORY Draw - Since San Jose returned to the league last year, they have met Dallas three times, and every time the result was the same: Draw.

ENVIRONMENT Draw - Both teams play virtually at sea level in similar climes. Game time temp is expected to be a perfect 60 degrees. If there is a slight advantage it is for SJ, who have enjoyed decent, supportive home crowds and a 4 percent boost in attendance this year.

RECENT FORM Draw - Both teams are +2 (wins minus losses last four games)

MLS Handicapping: San Jose at Colorado (Updated)

By El Chupa

Well, we blew it again. And lost money to boot. SJO obviously has COL's number and has gotten so deep in their heads that COL can't even manage a win at home. Beyond the obvious bad voodoo however, it's clear that COL has problems scoring, and that all it takes is a bad call here, a fluke hand-ball there, and you end up with a mere four goals from four PKs across two games and a mere two points earned per team. Even if COL makes the playoffs, we don't expect them to figure much in the road to the championship. And that's not sour grapes, we bear no ill-will to the Rapids. We just don't see how they'll get very far in the MLS's second season when they have to grind out wins even when they're home. Defense keeps you in games, but eventually you have to start scoring more goals then your opponents.

This is coming a bit late in the day and will be short and sweet. Take Colorado at -118 if you don't mind risking a bit for what we think is a high percentage wager (El Chupa hopes to make 50% tonight). Colorado is tough as hell at home. They don't allow goals, they don't even allow shots on goal, a category in which they lead the league with a shockingly low 81, WELL below the league average. The difference in the Luchametric is high and Colorado needs 3 pts to stay in the playoff picture. We thus think it's high time for COL to break through against San Jose and that they will. Pickens and Clark are probably still out, but Mastroeni will be back. The loss of Pickens is most troubling, but again, Burpo shouldn't face many shots, especially at home. San Jose is going from sea-level to a mile high, and their "resurgence" has been at home, not on the road. They absolutely stink on the road. Their recent form is not as good as you might think either. If you're worried about Pickens being out, take the draw.

Our prediction: SJO 1 Col 2.

San Jose Over Colorado. Yeah, You Heard That Right.

By El Luchador

Statistics are fine, but they lie. This Friday’s San Jose v Colorado matchup is an example. With the Luchametric showing COL with season production at +55 and SJ at -52, one would think the safe money would be on COL. Wrong.

El Luchador will be betting $100 on San Jose using one of his many favored off-shore gambling sites. The line is currently set at +145. The masked one isn’t saying you should make this bet too. He’s just saying.

Why, you ask? Why should you forgo the cold comfort of El Chupa's precious numbers?

Colorado will be without play-making midfielders Pablo Mastroeni (Disciplinary Committee decision) and Colin Clark (L ACL tear) as well as goalkeeper Matt Pickens (R knee sprain).

San Jose is almost 100 percent, with the important exception of forward Darren Huckerby (R hip surgery). But their recent form has been decent even without the tattooed white trash British scorer. San Jose have not lost at home since a hard-fought defeat to Toronto FC on July 11, with the lone exception of a 3-0 drubbing Aug. 8 at the hands of our beloved Crew. Who doesn’t lose to the Crew?

Since the All-Star break, the Earthquakes have destroyed the previously impressive Seattle 4-0, beat KC 1-0, barely lost to New England on the road 2-1, and last week made visiting amateur Bay-area MLS-wannabe Copa Alianza All-Stars look like school girls with a 6-0 bitch slapping.

San Jose are coming in fresh at home having not played an MLS match in two weeks. And they sit dead last in the West with no realistic possibility of making the playoffs. They have nothing to lose and will fight like the Taliban.

Meanwhile, COL have been on the road for almost two weeks and have lost 3 of their last 6 matches, including a 3-2 loss Saturday to sucky Toronto. Look for the Earthquakes to beat the Rockies. Do it.