Of Dirty Boots and Hooligans

El Luchador and his comrade, El Chupacabra, continue to pore over MLS statistics at our Advanced Institute for Luchametric Studies. The goal is to develop statistical tools that are soccer-specific which will aid in our understanding and enjoyment of the beautiful game. We also hope to assist those who chose to wager on world futball--in jurisdictions where such activity is legal – to make better-informed bets.

We offer our latest finding because it confirms something many of us have suspected, and because when taken in total with other knowledge and statistics, could form the basis of more productive wagers.

Which team in MLS can fairly be given the title of Major League Soccer’s Biggest Bunch of Hacks?

The dirty thugs of Real Salt Lake!

As the table below details, Salt Lake has consistently racked up the greatest number of Infraction Points (a measure of both yellow cards and red cards [IP=YC +(2*RC)]) over the last two and half seasons. Chivas is a close second, and as we shall see, a team whose play is perhaps the most troubling.

The table below represents complete data from 2007 and 2008 along with the projected total number of IPs each team will generate by the end of 2009 based on a 30 game season.

Club	2007	2008	2009 Projected	Three Year Total
Salt Lake	169	65	76	310
Chivas USA	131	84	79	294
Kansas City	144	57	77	278
Dallas	146	70	58	274
New York	98	76	68	242
Chicago	110	69	62	241
D.C.	103	78	60	241
Toronto	130	62	47	239
Colorado	112	54	58	224
Columbus	79	67	66	212
Los Angeles	72	59	68	199
New England	76	64	58	198
Houston	83	63	52	198
San Jose	0	64	73	137

Note the big drop off in the total number of cards issued in the league in 2008 as compared to 2007. One wonders what happened. Better officiating? Better players? More ladies on the team buses before and after games? Who knows? An in-depth analysis is forthcoming.

Do Reds and Yellows lead to more goals against or to fewer points in the standings? In other words, do the teams who commit the greatest number of heinous fouls suffer as a result? A preliminary analysis suggests that on average, hacks are a weak indicator of a team's overall place in the standings, and that dirty play doesn''t necessarily add up to losses.

In 2008, the average number of IPs was 67, and the average number of PTS per team was 41. As the chart below indicates, the teams with the most points in 2008 were right around the league average or below in terms of IPs, although one team (the hooligans of Chivas) LEAD the league in IPs AND managed to produce 43 PTS, or one PT above the league average. Notice also that four teams with a greater than average number of IPs generated more PTS than three teams with less-than-average number of IPs. This means that hacking (or bad officiating, depending on the game and the ref) doesn't necessarily result in more losses.

The chart above shows that as hacks went up, teams were on both sides of the league average in terms of number of PTS generated. In short, there is no direct correlation indicating that if you foul more than the other team, your chances of winning go down. In some cases yes, in some no.

The data from 2007 is a bit stranger. Again the average number of PTS was 41 but the average number of IPs was 112. Notice that three of the four teams with the greatest number of PTS had fewer IPs than the league average, but one of those teams (again, the hooligans of Chivas) had 131 IPs, or a substantially higher number of IPs than the league average. This again suggests that dirty play doesn't necessarily result in enough cards and free kicks to hurt a team in the long run. Should you foul in the Penalty Area? Of course not. We're talking about general trends across an entire season.

The bottom line: they may make the beautiful game ugly, but as long as teams like Chivas can play dirty and still earn PTS, they have little incentive to alter their style of play. So hack away you dirty thugs! But remember the wisdom of Kahn: revenge is a dish best served cold.