Wednesday, July 22, 2009

El Luchador's Line: CHI at SEA

The latest line on this match is as follows:

eattleSounders +105 ChicagoFire +220 Tie +220 Under 2.5 (even) Over 2.5 (-142)

We have to admit, this one makes us nervous. The Luchametric has Chicago at 132, Seattle at 115. The difference is largely due to how many away goals CHI scores, which in the metric are weighted heavier than home goals. Call ups are negligible in this match, although CHI will be without its starting goalkeeper, which could make a big difference. The law of averages says that CHI's record on the road is completely insane, and perhaps will start to look more human in the second half. Expect CHI to have more chances than SEA but also to give up a goal at least. CHI is averaging 12 SHT/GM to SEA's 10, while SEA gives up 5 SOGA per game to CHI's 4.4. Interestingly, SEA gives up only .9 GA/GM while CHI gives up 1.3--and that's with their starting keeper.

SEA and CHI tied 1-1 in Chicago their last game. SEA is coming off playing Chelsea and then beating HOU in a tough match. CHI is coming off two wins on league bottom-feeders N.E. and SJO.

El Luchador says: If CHI continues to score on the road like they've been doing all season, it could be a big +220 win for the wager with EL Cojones Grande. Our hunch, however, is a SEA win or tie. Be careful on this one my brothers and sisters.

As always, check your sources for the most up-to-date lines available.

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