Luchametric MLS Power Rankings: May 20, 2011

We've updated the Power Rankings for the first time this season.  We love a single table, but because there are so many differences among the teams in terms of how many actual games they've played, even a single table distorts their relative strengths, making things rather confusing.  Points per game gives you a bit of a better sense of who is playing well, but our statistical measure, which takes in a number of weighted variables, provides an even better measure of the differences (in our opinion). 

RSL is on top, which is as it should be.  At 2.29 Points per game they are playing extremely well by any of the traditional measures used to rank teams (Points and PPG). Notice that the Z-score for the LM indicates that a Big Four has emerged this season, at least to this point, with RSL, New York, Dallas and Los Angeles all at 1.0 standard deviations or higher  above the mean. Notice also that four clubs (Toronto, San Jose, Vancouver and K.C.) are as bad compared to the rest of the league as the top four are better. 
Hmmmmmm, perhaps the parity that used to characterize the league is finally gone. We'll see.  In any case, Crew fans can take comfort in the fact that our measure puts them above where they are in the single table, reflecting how disciplined and organized they've been thus far (except at San Jose).  Now if we could only start scoring some goals...

Five Plus Things We Learned about the Crew Last Night Against FC Dallas

By MJD

The Crew definitely looked different last night when  they lined up against Dallas.  Football-Lineups.com has the Crew in a 4-2-3-1 while FSC called it a 4-4-1-1 (they actually called it a 4-4-2 but showed Ekpo lying deep in a 4-4-1-1.  I think on attack the shape was more of a 4-2-3-1 but when Dallas had the ball and maintained possession, which was seldom, there were two lines of 4 defending. So, on attack 4-2-3-1 and without possession 4-4-1-1.

Gone also were both Crew fullbacks pushing up the wings on the attack.  There was occasional overlap to be sure, which is always expected from the outside backs in the modern game, but the sort of sustained attacks Crew fans saw from Hejduk and Padullo in previous seasons were simply not there. Which is fine.  I thought the Crew looked organized in the defensive phase and I would much rather see us playing back than getting caught too far up the pitch and giving up goals.

 What We Learned

Ekpo is no Schellotto - It's perhaps not fair to compare the two, but if Warzycha is going to put Ekpo in the hole as the Regista, the Italian term for playmaker, then he needs to create and make plays.  He didn't do that last night. Perhaps he'll grow into the position, but goals will be few and far in between until he does so.  Gaven did more for CLB in the middle of the park than Ekpo, who frequently drifted to the left, made mistakes resulting in loss of possession, and was generally ineffective.

Gaven Will Come Inside - Eddie was our best player on attack, frequently darting in to the middle to create for others as well as make himself available for passes.  His goal in injury time was excellent.  Without his presence in the lineup we would have been woeful on offense.  We would probably not be too far off to label him a sort of Interiores, a winger who moves into a central position in the attack phase.


Mendoza is Columbus' Adebayor: Without the Quality - Mendoza was lucky to stay on the pitch as long as he did. His work rate was awful and contributed virtually nothing to the Crew's effort.  Cunningham replaced him  in the 61st minute and was much better at finding space and initiating attacks.  It's unfortunate that the latter is a bit long in the tooth to be starting every match, as Mendoza did not impress in the least. Even his penalty strike was awful.


Trade Rogers - If the rumors are correct, the Crew are shopping Rogers and Rogers would like out.  Well, given the fact he is yet to break out, his value is probably as high as it's going to go and now is the time to get something for him.  He has loads of skills but he, like Ekpo, was ineffective.  He strikes us as a true winger who doesn't look to cut inside in a more inside forward role. Which is fine, but his service was terrible, his passing terrible, his first touch horrible.  Watching the Crew in attack in the first half made us wonder whether a 4-3-3 was warranted.  We weren't really getting anything from our wide play, so why not go to a shape that sacrifices the flanks for a tighter more focused attack?  If West Ham can field a 4-3-3 against Man U, which they are doing as I write this, then certainly the Crew could do so on occasion, especially if our back four continue to play well (see below).

Rusmir Will See Red - We like Rusmir alot. He pushed forward in attack and was dangerous when he did so. He was also tough when the Crew didn't have the ball.  He and Burns bossed Dallas' midfield in the first 45 minutes.  It looks like he will play the sort of role Michael Bradley plays for the USMNT: a true box-to-box midfielder who is dynamic on offense and tough on defense.  Nice.  He's obviously very emotional, and the only reason he was subbed was that his yellow at the end of the first half meant RW couldn't risk the Crew going down to 10 men tied 0-0 at home when Dallas' Jackson's second boneheaded tackle within 5 minutes gave them an excellent chance to pick up all three points. 

Our Back Four are Better than Last Year - Hejduk and Padula will always be loved by Crew Fans, but our back four looked better than I've seen in recent years.  James and Marshall were tough in the middle and our fullbacks, although perhaps lacking the wide runs Crew fans are used to seeing from our fullbacks, made virtually no mistakes.  Our defense kept its shape and made good decisions and weren't ever really broken down by Dallas.  They also showed great pace when Dallas threatened on the break.

Bottom line: the demise of the Crew has been widely exaggerated.  I don't see us scoring a lot of goals, but I do see a lot of tight games, a lot of draws, a lot of 1-0, 1-1 results.  I certainly have hopes we can make the playoffs.  If the suits upstairs can make a move and get more quality up top, a true #10 Regista for example, allowing Ekpo to go back out to the wing, we could make a run come fall. We'll see.

November EPL Power Rankings: The Big Three

By MJD
We've at long last found time to gather the data and crunch the numbers, and although the rankings might raise a few eyebrows, some of the more interesting tidbits can only be found by drilling down a bit deeper into the actual numbers themselves.  First things first, however.

The Rankings

The Big Four is no more. This year, according to our metric, it's the big three and then the rest of the crowd.  Chelsea, Man U and Arsenal  are top of the table, and are all 1.5 or higher in the Z-score for the LM.  Below them are Man City, Everton, Newcastle (yes, Newcastle) and Bolton (yes, Bolton). one could throw Spurs in with this group group, but at .12 STDEVs they don't quite fit in with this second tier of teams.  We root for Spurs in Europe, and think they are clearly a quality squad, but we also think playing in two major competitions (EPL and Champions League) is taking its toll. Whatever the case, the drop off from the top three suggests that the EPL is really comprised of about five sets of clubs, the elite (Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal), the good (Everton, Newcastle, maybe Bolton [we'll see]), the above average (Spurs, Sunderland, Liverpool), the below average (West Brom, Fulham, Villa, Blackburn, Blackpool, Birmingham, Wigan, Stoke), and the dregs (Wolves and West Ham).

Now, although we obviously love numbers, we're not slaves to them.  It's hard to accept Bolton as being better than Spurs. But they're tied in the table, at least on points without considering any tie breakers, and we have them slightly better in our rankings. Bolton is a bit of an odd bird, however, as although they're scoring goals at a respectable clip (above average in virtually every offensive stat we track), they are also a bit leaky (below average in virtually every defensive stat we track).  But on the road they've have been doing exceptionally well, drawing or winning a whopping 84% of their away matches.  You can't argue with those results. But they've only won 33% of their home matches, below the league average at the moment of 43% and well below the historical average number of home wins which is generally around 50%.  Whatever the explanation, Bolton is certainly a solid side, at least through 12 fixtures.

A Bit Deeper

Here are a number of observations from a bit deeper in the data:

Chelsea has only given up a total of 5 Goals Against, which is best in the league. However, they're giving up Shots Against and Shots on Goal Against at a fairly normal rate: 10.92 SHTA/GM and 4.08 SOGA/GM; the league averages right now are 12.2 and 4.26.  This means that the percentage of goals scored against them relative to the number SOGs they give up is a very low 10%.  The league average right now is 31%, which is around the historical average for the league and world football generally. In other words, the average team in the EPL gives up one goal for every three shots on goal it allows.  Chelsea gives up one goal for every TEN shots on goal it allows.  The next time someone you know disses either Petr Cech or Chelsea's back four, punch them in the mouth.

You think Arsenal has a goalkeeping problem? Duh. But here's some numbers worth throwing around: Arsenal gives up only 2.58 SOGA/GM.  That's the fewest Shots on Goal Against per Game in the league.  And they are only giving up .92 GA/GM, which is well below the league average of 1.31.  But they're ratio of GA to SOGA is .35 (the league average is .32). In other words, when teams manage to put a shot on goal, it goes in 35% of the time.  So even though they give up fewer shots on goal than the rest of the league, which accounts for their low GA/GM, if you do manage to create a chance, your odds of it going in are actually better than average--because their goalies blow.

Incidentally, Arsenal also leads the league in the ratio of G/SOG at 53%.  This suggests that they are very efficient and are also good at creating quality chances rather than mere dribblers that roll to the feet of the keeper.  Put a true, world-class keeper in the net and they'd be top of the table.

Finally, what ails Spurs?  Given the number of Shots and Shots on Goal they've managed to create, their Expected Goals For is 19.  The number of goals they've actually scored is a mere 14.  In other words, if they scored goals at the league average rate for every chance they managed to create, they would have 5 more goals than they've actually scored--and goals, boys and girls, equal points in the table.  This suggests that the number of true quality chances they create is actually quite low compared to other clubs. One culprit? How about Crouch? Yeah, he's nine feet tall, so it's much easier to put the ball on top of his head, but perhaps all those headers aren't nearly as dangerous as Harry Redknapp wants to believe. I'd build a franchise around van der Vaart, who wouldn't? But clearly, Spurs is much less dangerous on the attack--at least in the EPL--than you'd expect.  The numbers, and the dearth of points, don't lie.

Luchametric EPL Power Rankings Updated: Chelsea is a Beast

By MJD
After a long hiatus, we're finally back with our EPL Power Rankings.  The top of the rankings look much like the actual standings--the real insights are a bit further down table. We'll get to those in a second.

First, we'd be remiss not to point out just how dominant Chelsea, in fact, is.  They obviously won't end up with 106 points when all is said and done, but our rankings indicate there is some real separation between Chelsea and even the top clubs.  Currently, they enjoy a 1.45 advantage over the next closest club (Man U) in the Z-score.  Over the last three seasons in the EPL, a difference of 1.0 has indicated a strong difference in relative strength between any two clubs.  Chelsea are averaging over 3 Goals For per game (the league average is 1.34; Man U and Arsenal are both at 2.29 ), and they have given up only 2 Goals Against in seven matches.  They also are scoring 44% of the time when they put a shot on goal.  The league average is currently 29% (historically in the EPL, a SOG results in a goal about 20% of the time). That's a huge advantage over other clubs and a measure of both the quality of chances Chelsea are creating and how efficient they are--that is, they don't need nearly as many chances as other clubs in order to put the ball in the net (how many strikers would have converted the chance Drogba did against Arsenal last Sunday?).  You can look at all the numbers here.  The bottom line is that we think the gap between Chelsea and the rest of the league, including that between Chelsea and the top clubs, is much greater than it was last year. If they can maintain this level of play  for another 7 or so fixtures, we honestly don't think anyone will be able to come close to them this year in the Premiership.

Down table we'd point out just a few things.  First, we've got Blackpool just south of mid-table, and we think that's where they belong.  But their LM tells us that their 10 points, although certainly a big surprise, are not a fluke--as their win at Anfield proved.  On Saturday the Seasiders looked great and played organized and attack-minded football.  And they're overall production thus far has them out of the relegation zone--where most pundits, including us, put them at the start of the season.  Given the fact they've played five out of their first seven games on the road suggests that barring injury they have a good chance of sticking.

We've also got Everton well out of the relegation zone, suggesting that results finally might start coming for the Toffees and soon.  Last year they started slowly and then steadily climbed the table.  Their rate of overall production suggests this year could be similar.  The results haven't been there, but they've been playing decent football.

Newcastle is slightly better than they look in the official standings.  And we think they, too, will start to move up closer to where they belong--mid-table and out of danger of dropping.  West Brom we'll continue to monitor.  They're 6th in the standings and 7th in our rankings, suggesting that their points are no fluke.  However, everyone in the preseason had them dropping, and it will be interesting to see how they do over the next five or so fixtures.  Perhaps one of the stories in the league this year is going to be the resilience of the newly promoted.  We'll see.

Finally, Wolves are going down. Go put money on it.  But what about Liverpool?  We're not about to predict that the Reds will be in a relegation fight come March and April, nor do we think they won't move up table.  However, make no mistake about it, they have played horribly over the first 7 games, suggesting that they're lucky to have the points they do and not that they've been unlucky.  In other words, the numbers make it clear that the dearth of points for the Scousers are no fluke--the production, the effort, just hasn't been there, and the Reds are exactly where they should be in the table--on the bottom.

Luchametric English Premier League 2010-2011 Preview...of Sorts [updated]

Final 2009-10 EPL Luchametric Power Rankings

By MJD

 The EPL Resumes play in earnest on Saturday, and we at the Luchametric Institute rejoice in the return of early-Saturday-morning football.

To the left are the final Power Rankings from last season.  As a measure of where the teams are at the start of this year, however--they are fairly unhelpful.  As a general rule in sports ranking systems and prediction, the previous season's standings and performances are poor predictors of the subsequent season's performance.  But they at least provide us with a sense of how things stacked up at the end of last year, and so offer a baseline for evaluating to what extent, if any, the clubs have improved or slid back.  Here are just a few observations as we look forward to Saturday's fixtures.

Our Power Rankings did not penalize Pompey for going belly-up financially.  And in our rankings, they were not the worst team in the league--that honor went to Hull.  But as has been pointed out by other observers, there were other teams that might just have easily gone down if not for some good fortune here and there.  Wigan, Wolves, West Ham and even Bolton were all in danger of dropping at some point, and this suggests that at least one of these four teams will be facing a relegation battle in the Spring.

In our view, Blackpool will be this year's Burnley--Hello! Goodbye!.  And although we expect some entertaining football out of the Tangerines, who just signed four young players, their chances of staying up are slim.  The signings suggest Blackpool see this year as an opportunity to develop the club in the long term.  Note that the Tangerines finished sixth last season in the Championship, and only made it to promotion as a result of a playoff.  We think they're very much out of their league.

West Brom's chances of staying up are only slightly better, but look for the baggies to be tough at home, as all indications are there will be some defensive if not completely negative football (depending on your perspective) played at The Hawthorns under the guidance of Roberto di Matteo.

Newcastle, however, will be shooting for mid-table this season, and they have a strong enough club to do it. The year spent down in the Championship gave them an opportunity to reorganize financially and in the clubhouse.  We see them being similar to Stoke and Sunderland--solid, mid-table, average.

This leaves our final relegation team to come from among West Ham, Wigan, Wolves and Bolton.  West Ham has serious questions in the clubhouse and in the front office.  They need to get their finances straightened out and soon.  We like Wolves' chances to stick given Mick McCarthy's proven ability to find line-ups and tactics that earn points, including resting players in games when the odds are longest against them (against Man U last year) to insure points are earned when chances to earn them are more reasonable (against Bolton about a week later).  Wigan, however, is in trouble. They finished just above relegation last year, and they've lost far too many players.  In all honesty, they belong in the Championship. Which is where we think they will be next season.  Our bottom feeders this season: 20. Blackpool, 19. West Brom 18. Wigan.

At the top of the table, it's the usual suspects.  If Arsenal matures and stays healthy, they are capable of challenging for the league title.  There is much talk about Chelsea being a bit long in the tooth, but we think rumors of their demise are smack.  Unfortunately, both Chelsea and the Gunners will have to keep pace with Man U, who looked deep and deadly in the Community Shield.  When Sir Alex sent in three subs at the start of the second half, and the three were Berbatov, Chicharito and Nani, one could not help but marvel at just how deep are the Red Devils. As such, we regret to predict that both the Gunners and the Blues will be chasing Man U this season.  We'll see.

The rest of the field really comes down to Man City, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton.  We see Spurs dropping a bit from last year's form.  Redknapp recently complained that the club needed to act during the current transfer window if they hoped to make a run further up the table, and on top of the pressures of the EPL, the team is in the Champions League.  We don't think that Spurs are deep enough to survive a prolonged competition in Europe AND improve on last year's record in the league; nor do we think their back line will be able to shut down the other top clubs enough to earn many points from Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea, and Man City, which they'll need to do to make any headway.

There is trepidation and hope at Anfield, but we don't see Liverpool challenging seriously for anything more than fourth place.  Torrez is simply not the player the world thinks he is, and Hodgson could be out of his league as manager--despite his stints at Inter (over 10 years ago).

The real beast this year is Man City, who added to an already-loaded club, signing David Silva off an outstanding World Cup for World Champions Spain.  We think Adebayor represents everything that is wrong with contemporary sport---arrogant, talented, lazy, obnoxious--and there are even some signs he might not start alongside Tevez in Mancini's XI.  Regardless, we think City will be better than last year.

As such our top four are: 1. Man U 2. Gunners 3. Man City 4. Chelsea.  We, of course, could be dead wrong.  The one thing we feel very confident about is that Arsenal, City and Chelsea will be scrapping for second place this season, with Spurs dropping in to fifth.

One last point, you need to watch the transfer news every day, as a single big signing could change things.  Chelsea is now (Friday the 13th) reportedly close to signing Neymar, the Wunderkind for Santos in Brazil who looked incredible against the USMNT on Tuesday. Should they sign the young and highly-promising star we'd think it would be worth at least three points in the standings by season's end. Last year, Chelsea beat out Man U by only one point.  And this just in, (seriously, it came up on my browser as I was updating this) Man City have just signed Balotelli from Inter.  Wow.  So it goes...

Below are some links worth checking out if you haven't already. They are in no particular order, other than that we think World Football Daily is the best source out there for US fans of the beautiful game. But we also like the others very, very much.  Hagalo Villa! Te Amo Gunners!

1. World Football Daily
2. EPL Talk
3. UK Guardian EPL Preview Series
4. Football Weekly with James Richardson

Klinsman for Bradley: Change We Can Believe In

By MJD

Last night's dismantling of a veteran US squad by a young Brazilian team bursting with talent proved just how deep Brazil is and just how badly the US needs a new coach and a new direction.

Brazil advanced further than did the US in this summer's World Cup, and their coach, Dunga, was fired.  The USSF has held on to Bradley at least through last night's friendly, but the performance of the US teams begs the following question: why?  Alexi Lalas is not our favorite commentator. It's one thing to spout your mouth off and be opinionated. We like that in Maradona because the man is flat-out hilarious...and a genius.  But it's another to run your mouth and repeatedly make stupid and uninformed comments that are mere opinions--and get paid for it.  And yet Lalas got it right last night when he pointed out that the USSF should have fired Bradley after the World Cup.  Doing so would have allowed his replacement to begin the next phase of US soccer development at the national level against Brazil.

That the USSF did not at least served the following purposes: it showed just how unimaginative Bradley is as a tactician and just how desperately the US needs a new vision--perhaps a decidedly Germanic vision.

Running out a 4-4-1-1 for the first time this summer looked brilliant in the first ten minutes or so, as the US dominated the young Brazilians and Donovan especially looked outstanding.  Putting the best player the US has produced in the center of the field was reaping great dividends, as John Harkas excitedly pointed out.

But once the youngsters for La Samba settled down they proceeded to dismantle the US, sending ball after ball down the US's left side, and the 2-0 score at half time could easily have been 3-0 or worse.  And, once again, there were the usual problems for the US: our midfield was unorganized and outgunned, and our back four looked completely out of their league.  The Brazilians sent wave after wave at our back line and yours truly completely lost track of how many give-and-gos and through-balls the US was giving up.  It was a nightmare.

At what point does a coach alter not only his team's tactical organization to achieve better results but its makeup and vision?  Harkas pointed out that while the Brazilians had been able to play a bunch of new players to see who might possibly make it into the XI for the next South American Championship and eventually the next World Cup, Bradley ran out essentially the same team that had played so unevenly in South Africa.  More importantly, other than putting Donovan up top and in the middle, Bradley showed no new ideas whatsoever, as if South Africa had been a tremendous leap forward for US football.

Let's be clear. Bradley is the man who led the US to the final of the Confederations Cup last year, to the top of the CONCACAF during World Cup qualifying, and to the final 16 in South Africa.  But we think he's taken the USA as far as he's capable of taking it.

In our view, we have the players to do better.  As such, it's not that we lack talent, it's that whatever talent we do have is not being utilized to its fullest.  Donovan and Bradley (the player, not the coach) are outstanding midfielders who can start in the top divisions in Europe.  We have depth  at keeper and, finally, even at striker (Buddle, Altidore, Gomez, Findlay).  Gomez in particular is just the first of what will prove to be a whole slew of Mexican-American strikers in the years to come, as the sons of immigrants (legal and extra-legal) grow up in the US and choose to play for their homeland and not return to Mexico. In fact, we think once Gomez and his brethren come of age en masse, the US will finally have arrived internationally, with truly International-class keepers, midfielders and FINALLY fast, skilled strikers.

We have seen no indication over the last 12 months that Bradley (the coach) understands any of this, or that he understands how successful tactics are a direct function of the skills of the players on the field and the game at hand, i.e., the challenge posed by the opposition.

For example,  a 5-3-2 with Edu playing just in front of the back four in a central position, with a midfield of Bradley, Donovan (middle) and Feilhaber with Atlidore and Buddle up top would have given us a five-man back line with a flexible midfield allowing either/both Donovan and Bradley to push up.  We certainly missed Dempsey last night.  A midfield of Dempsey, Donovan and Bradley with Jozey and Edson up top would have packed a punch, and the five-man back line, with Edu pushing up into a holding-midfield position could perhaps have done better than the 4-4-1-1 did last night.  Finally, the 5-man back line can quickly  morph into a 5-4-1 or a 5-4-1 with a diamond in the middle if need be.  The point is, ANYTHING was better than what passed for tactics last night.

There was talk at half time by Lalas about Jurgen Klinsman coming in to take over for Bradley.  And this morning on Sky Sports News, Bradley was described as the "leading candidate" for the vacancy at Aston Villa.

Klinsman coming in to reshape the Yanks and Bradley graduating to greener pastures, the first US manager to ever manage in the EPl, would be a win-win for US football.  Let's hope it happens.

Luchametric MLS Handicapping: Dallas and Seattle at Home

By MJD

A lot of MLS matches between Thursday and Sunday.  Some should be very entertaining.  The Crew at Philly should be quite good given the atmosphere at PPL Park, as should be New York and Henry at Chicago.

For punters, however, there are really no good values.  The two best bets are Dallas at home over Philly, and Seattle at home over Houston.

Philly will have played the Crew on Thursday before flying to Dallas.  Look for them to get trounced in the Texas heat playing with only two days rest against a Dallas team that is currently third in our Power Rankings and which has won or drawn 88% of its home games this season.

At slightly-less-than-even odds, Seattle at home against down-table Houston is, dare we say it, a very SOUND bet. LOL! Get it? "Sounders" and "sound" bet! That's freaking gold Jerry! Gold!

Anyway, that's all we got this week.  Look for our inaugural 2010-2011 EPL recommendations sometime next week.  Meanwhile, dig on this.

Crew Houston Post-Game Quickie

Our Number 9

By MJD

• We're going to call RW's lineup a 4-4-2.  It didn't look like a diamond in the midfield to us, as the boys played rather flat in the middle.  Also, GBS dropped back pretty early on, so although the shape was sort-of a 4-4-2, the team didn't play like it for most of the game once Schelotto's instincts took over.
• Speaking of which, why does RW insist on pushing GBS up top? He didn't contribute much tonight and looked frustrated.  He needs to play back and be given free reign to roam the middle of the field. Playing Renteria as the lone striker seems like a no-brainer to us.
• Renteria is big and tough so why try to draw fouls? We love him up top though.  Neither NY nor HOU could really handle him and he draws a lot of attention creating space for other players. Let's hope he keeps his starting job when Lenhart gets back.
• We like Ekpo on the left. He really held that side of the field down and was unselfish and creative during the attack phase. He plays smart and has skills.  We think both he and Renteria have shown they belong in the XI.
• We think this might have been the best Crew lineup of the year; granted, we were playing an inferior opponent.  But if GBS could have been dropped back in the center from the start, we think we would have been tough and organized and dangerous.
• Rogers looks out of position on the right.  Not to keep hammering him, but sometimes he looks like he doesn't have a clue what he's doing or supposed to be doing.  In fact, both he and GBS seemed out of position. Against teams like LA and RSL, the team can't afford not to be getting full production out of each and every player.
• Houston is a mess.  They've got some dangerous players who can attack but they simply aren't as organized as the Crew nor are they as big physically, which we thought was causing them problems (three yellow cards, for example). It will take a miracle for them to make the playoffs, nor should they unless they show marked improvement.
• I'm not sure we were running up the score, but the third goal certainly will be remembered by HOU and their fans.
• Te Amo Columbus! Columbus Te Amo! 'Till I die!

Crew vs Houston Statistical Comparison: Dynamo Dangerous on Attack; Porous on Defense

By MJD
As we indicated yesterday, the percentages favor the Crew heavily in today's match against the Dynamo.  A closer look at the numbers reveals some nuances worth mentioning.

First, the Dynamo are dangerous on attack.  Both they and the Crew score about 1.3 GF/GM.  But our measure of Quality Shots on Goal, which essentially measures how much better than the league average is a team's ratio of goals to SOGs shows that Houston is substantially ahead of the Crew.  Houston scores a goal 38% of the time when they manage to create a SOG.  The Crew's percentage is 30%; the league average is 27%.

Houston currently has five players who have scored 3 goals or more this year; and 4 players with double-digit shot totals.  And Brian Ching is tied with Brad Davis as the team's top scorer with 3 goals each.  Over the last four games, Ching has played with 3 different players up top--a mark of depth and/or of a team looking for answers given the absence of Davis (he injured his hip flexor but as far as we can determine, should start tonight).  If Davis resumes his duties as the attacking center-mid, the Crew will have to defend sharply to avoid falling behind, especially given the fact the Hejduk is out with a red card suspension and Carroll is out with an injury.  It will be interesting to see if Warzycha goes with Renteria and Ekpo rather than with his more traditional and conservative XI which includes Gaven, Rogers and Garey.  We'd love to at least see Renteria start if Rogers gets yet still another chance to show he can play consistently enough to start every match on the left wing. Regardless, with Davis back, the Dynamo's attack will be balanced and formidable.  They are, however, winless in their last six games.

The real problem for Houston is their defending.  They give up nearly 1.4 GA/GM.  What's interesting is that they don't give up more SHTA or SOGA than the Crew--they actually give up fewer.  But they've allowed far more goals.  One explanation is that teams are able to create more QUALITY chances against them than is typical in the league.  Another explanation is that their keeper, Pat Onstad, stinks.  His save percentage is around 62%.  Our man Hesmer is at 76%.  Hagado C-Bus! Te amo Crew! 'Til I die!

Luchametric MLS Handicapping: Crew and RSL to both Win at Home

By MJD
We've modified our handicapping table to now include the actual win, loss and draw percentages of each team.  This allows you to compare the teams not only in terms of the LM power score, but also compare the probability of a home win, away win, or draw offered by the books, to the actual performance of each team thus far.

So, this weekend, the books have the Crew at -120 and Houston at +400.  This means that the books are giving the black and gold a 55% chance of a win, Houston a 20% chance of a win, and the draw a 27% chance probability.

As the chart indicates, however, the Crew this season have won 78% of their home games, Houston have lost 57% of their road games, and the Crew have NEVER drawn at home.

This means we think the draw is the least likely bet in this match.  More importantly, we think the Crew to win is a great value bet.  The books have lowered the chance of Crew win by over 20%.. We think they're on crack.  Take the Crew to win and head to the Nordecke. Hagalo Columbus! 'Til I Die!

We also very much like RSL at home.  We think the numbers again speak for themselves.

Luchametric MLS Power Rankings Updated: Dallas you say?

Current Luchametric MLS Power Rankings

By MJD
Dallas sits atop our Power Rankings.  We've spent the last hour or so trying to figure out if there is a mistake somewhere.  There isn't.  Before you blow a gasket in disbelief, note that the LM is based on production per game.  And if you compare Dallas' PTS/GM to the Crew, RSL and LA, the four teams are much closer than might appear just from looking at the single table.  Plus you have to factor in that Dallas has the best recent form, which we're perhaps weighing too heavily.  We need more time to look at that possibility.

The R-Squared when we regress the LM to point production in the league currently stands at .76.  This means that our metric explains 76% of the differences among the teams in terms of point production.  That's pretty good, but not as good as the R-squared for 08 and 09 combined, which is .83.  And our R-squared for point production in the EPL is around .90.  So, we're still examining why the MLS metric is not as sharp as the one we developed for the EPL (both are virtually the same).

Further, we'd point out that Dallas has only lost 13% of its games this year.  This puts them second in the league behind LA at 11%, and makes them over twice as good as RSL (26%) and well below the league average of 38%.n  They currently lead the league in draws.  In short, they are very, very, very tough to beat. They have drawn or won 87% of the games they have played thus far.  Our metric treats draws and performance in draws as significant evidence of a team's power--what we call "production."  The American proclivity to ignore draws as nothing more than "kissing your sister," we think ignores what draws tell us about a team. As such, Dallas gets more credit for how well it plays in wins, losses AND draws, which probably accounts for their place in the standings.  If they can maintain their rate of production, they should start getting some clean wins.  But it could also be that they've peaked at mid-season, and by the end of the year will drop back down in our rankings.  We'll see.

Wanted: Nordecke Chant Recordings--Hagado Columbus! Do it!

By MJD 

We were excited to find the following site:

http://www.fanchants.com/football-team/columbus-crew/

which is one of the best, if not THE best collections of football chants on the web.  But, alas, although the lyrics for Crew chants are well represented, there is only one recording of the Nordecke in full warble.  Consider this a request to any and all of the Crew faithful to record and submit Crew chants pronto.  Show the rest of MLS who rules.

In that spirit: here's a new one.  You know the Seattle Sounders chant? See-aaaaaaaaaaaaaa-tle, Sounnnnnnnnnnnn-ders?   Well here's one straight from the lab at the Luchametric institute: 

Te Amo, Columbus, Te amo!

Tay-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe
Co-luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmm-bus
Tey-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe!

Over and over and over and over again.  It's mesmerizing.  Roughly translated: "I love you, Columbus, Columbus, I love you"  Word!  Or, alternatively:

Tay-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe
Co-luuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmmm-bus
Crewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

It's basically a variant of the chant sung by fans of Cruzeiro FC, which I listened to tonight while watching a replay of a Copa Libertadores match--a tourney, by the way, whose semi-finals are upcoming and should help ease the pain until the EPL starts up in mid-August.  The chant sung by the Cruzeiro hoard was beautiful and made me an instant fan of La Bestia Negra! Azuis Celeste!

Hagado Columbus!

Crew Win with Luchametric Formation; Thierry Henry Gets What's Coming to Him

Jack Ruby style, like a thief in the night, El Luchador tonight confronted the cheating Thierry Henry at Crew Stadium after the Red Bulls' humiliating defeat at the hands of the Black and Gold.

Robert Warzycha took the advice of the Luchametric Institute and played the 4-2-3-1 formation in the attacking phase with Renteria up top, and the Crew won handily 2-0 on goals from Renteria and Brian Carroll. Although they "lined up" in the 4-4-1-1 to start both halves, GBS played back deeper than in previous matches and Renteria was the lone marauding striker up front.  And the starts by Expo and Renteria, as we had suggested, clearly gave the crew the attacking prowess they had been lacking.

But the highlight of the evening was when El Luchador spoke truth to power, made Mark McCullers' Security Forces and Columbus Police nervous, and scouted out The Cheater's location to charge in and achieve justice for the people of the Republic of Ireland.  El Luchador did what any sensible football fan would do and called  Henry out on his despicable handball that cost the Irish a place in the World Cup this year.

After France's disgraceful but predictable collapse in South Africa, Henry announced his signing with New York, and he flew to Columbus to witness his team lose to the Crew from a luxury box on the northwest corner of the stadium.

Thierry Henry: As a Frenchman, you know how to surrender. Go ahead and do so  now. Based on what we saw from the Red Bulls tonight, even your cheating ways will not save you or your newly chosen comrades.

Hagalo Columbus! DO IT!

Columbus Crew Tactics: It's Time for a Change

By MJD

A quick glance at the Crew lineups for the current MLS campaign reveals that Warzycha is in a rut.  Let us tread carefully.  RW is a solid manager; more importantly, he's our manager.  And it's not that the Crew aren't doing well. It's just that they don't look like a championship club at this point.  And if the record at football-lineups.com is to be believed, part of the problem, and certainly part of the blame for last night's loss to down-table Kansas City, must lie in the fact that the Crew have become woefully predictable.

The Crew have played a 4-4-1-1 each and every game this season, with relatively minor changes to the starters.  And the 4-4-1-1 has its merits, which we've outlined in an earlier post.  But we're starting to think that at this point in the season, fully half-way through the Crew's campaign, teams in the league have thoroughly scouted the Black and Gold and know too well how to defend against us.  And it's also clear that although the typical starting lineup gives us strength in the midfield and keeps teams at bay (before last night's match our GA/GM was at .86), it sacrifices attack for caution.  Fine. Warzycha is the coach and he gets paid to make the important decisions.  We sincerely respect that.

But we could not help but notice last night that once the attacking subs got in the game, the Crew's energy level went up (understandably), and all of sudden we were swarming all over the KC goal.  On some of the Crew discussion sites, notably Big Soccer, complaints about Schelotto's role in Warzycha's scheme have been around since the start of the season.  Our view is that he's much better used held back, more like a traditional #10.  And in Warzycha's 4-4-1-1, we think Schelotto is pushed up too far and is thus unable to function either as an effective forward/striker, OR as an effective attacking-mid ala World Champion Spain's Xavi.  Last night, late in the match, Ekpo and Renteria were able to create havoc on the Wizards' left, and both showed great flashes of skill both shooting and setting up others.  Plus, we love Renteria's size and his ability to serve as a target for the mids: a striker ala Drogba who can hold the ball, shoot, create. Forza Crew!

As such, here's our dream line-up, at least at home against inferior teams:

In our 4-2-3-1, Renteria moves up top and has license to roam laterally across the top of the Crew's shape.  Rogers starts on the left and is a traditional winger.  Ekpo starts on the right and can fly down the right side or move toward the center to create. Most importantly, Schelotto hangs back as a true center attacking-mid whose job is to create and destribute (ala Xavi), collecting and distributing the ball from his cruising ground in the middle of the field.  Hejduk and Padula will push up as usual depending upon which flank the Crew's attack is building.

This is not a complicated schema.  And it would do much to get the boys out of the rut they've fallen into, making them less predictable and more dangerous from the first minutes of the match rather than just the last 20 or so.  Hagalo C-Bus! 'till I die...

Crew vs Wizards Postgame Quickie

By MJD

• Lenhart's one tough mofo.
• The officiating blew.
• The Crew needs to quit trying to draw calls, it's stupid and puts too much of the outcome of the game in the hands of a bunch of tools posing as professional referees. 
• When we put in our attacking subs late we lose our midfield.
• There's no way we should lose to the likes of KC at home at this point in the season, Warzycha needs to get the boys' heads straight for bottom feeders like KC playing on the road after three straight losses.  
• We looked tired in the second half. Do we need a new fitness coach? Too much partying during the World Cup break? US Open Cup games taking their toll?
• Decent crowd for a mid-week game against the likes of KC. Buck a brat; dollar draft. 
• Renteria and Ekpo deserve more playing time, they have more technical prowess up front than Gaven or Rogers. It would require a different tactical approach, but RW's current starting formation, although not negative football, is too conservative. Put Renteria up top and give Ekpo a start in attacking mid.  We'd lose Rogers' speed, but tonight he didn't do dookie. We might lose something in the midfield, but if you're not going to open things up and attack at home when are you? How about Ekpo for Gaven and Renteria for Garey to start? You'd then have Rogers' speed on the left wing and Expo and Renteria and GBS' technical and creative abilities up front.
  
• Columbus 'till I die.

Manu Chao on Diego Maradona

Manu discusses the first time he met Maradona, why he is the greatest player ever, and the meaning behind the song "La Vida Tómbola" which was featured in the documentary film Maradona by Serbian filmmaker Emir Kusturica" 


"It is not easy being Diego Maradona."

World Cup Semifinals Handicapping: Party Like its 1974

By MJD

We don't see Germany trouncing yet another strong world football power, as Spain will match up against Der Mannschaft much better than did the tactic-less, unorganized Argentinians, but we still think the Germans will overpower the Spanish over 90 minutes.  The Germans' ability to patiently and effectively defend and then burst forward en masse with precision makes them a very tough opponent for the Red Fury.  Spain will dominate possession but will find few cracks in the German Wall--of course, if they defend well, they only need one crack, as David Villa continues to demonstrate with aplomb.  But physically the Spanish will have a hard time.  Look for Spain to earn many set-piece goal-scoring opportunities as Iniesta and Villa get pushed and shoved to the ground--oh, and the Spanish will certainly flop too if not dive outright.  Regardless, Spain will need a clean sheet or close to it if they hope to get through to the final.

The disgraceful way Uruguay made it past Ghana has been much-written about, and so we won't add our two pesos.  But the soccer-gods are very angry; and the Orange are now an instrument of divine retribution (in addition to being a very, very good side).  Netherlands 3 Uruguay 1.

World Cup Quarterfinals Handicapping: Favorites...or Germany

At this point in the world's greatest sporting event, there are no bargains to be had.  We look into the Luchametric crystal ball and see only favorites...except Germany...except the odds at this point are lame. If you can get odds at +350 or above on Deutschland, go for it.  Otherwise, even though we absolutely can see the organized, workaholic young Germans following Ozil all the way to the final and the world championship, the early odds don't make it a tantalizing punt.  In fact, the books have everything in their favor going into the tournament's final seven matches.

Can the Dutch beat Brazil in a one-off? Of course. Portugal showed that if you fall back and defend your half, Dunga and Co. run out of ideas and have to resort to the defenders making mistakes and/or their skill and athleticism coming through over 90 minutes.  Regardless, the rewards aren't worth the risk. Plus, Brazil at slightly better than one-to-one odds is always a good bet.

Neither Uruguay nor Ghana will be in the final.  But they could easily tie over 90 minutes.  If punt you must, then punt the draw on this one, or the under.  Ghana is young but athletic and fairly well organized; and Uruguay is organized and has some talent--but it's either Uruguay or the draw on this one.  Given how cautiously Uruguay has been willing to play, we like the draw.

Argentina is our favorite to win it all at this point, but the Germans are fully capable of a disciplined and systematic 2-0 win.  Their defense, combined with a deadly counter attack, are formidable.  Their absolute destruction of England showed that not only are they in the running this year, but that the German Youth are in line for the both the European championship in  2012 and the WC in 2014. Damn.  But La Albiceleste are in fine form and could give the German's fits.  Both teams will respect each other, and if you think either squad has fate on its side, go for it.  Team Nordecke Luchador feels this is Maradona's year to secure his place in football history in a way The Chosen One could only dream (Mourinho couldn't play for shite.)

Finally, the very early odds on Spain are irrelevant.  The Red Fury will dismantle Paraguay.  Spain versus Argentina will be epic.  The winner will face La Samba.  Wow.  An all-Latin final; possibly an all-South American final.  Imponente! Que barato! Hagalo mis hermanos! Hagalo!

El Clandestino, El Vision and El Escheleto Combine on the Attack to Help Make it 2-0 Columbus over DC United

Three New Characters made their way onto the Luchametric scene on this epic day that also saw the Crew predictably trounce DC United.

Clandestino represents the North Side. El Escheleto bares his bones. And El Vision is elusive and  effusive as always.

The Red White and Blue fell short this day, but the Black and Gold were never in doubt.

Hagalo Columbus! Do It!

MLS Power Rankings Updated: World Cup and MLS Handicapping

Certainly, all eyes are on tomorrow's match between the Yanks and Ghana, with the clash between England and Germany a close second.  But the MLS picks up again starting tonight, so we've updated the entire blog (while watching the highly disappointing match between Brazil and Portugal).

The MLS Power Rankings have LA and RSL at the top with the Crew, Colorado, Dallas and Toronto rounding out the top of our table.  The drop-off below Toronto is enough to suggest that the top six right now are the cream of the league.  It will be very interesting to see how the long lay off for the league affects play.  Teams will surely be rusty, and so matches could be sloppy and the results unpredictable.  To the right are some recommendations for punters.

This weekend's World Cup Matches will surely be outstanding football.  Our predictions are limited.  We certainly like Uruguay over South Korea, but the odds could be better.

Emotions are too high for the US match for El Chupa to be even remotely objective.  The odds and probabilities seem spot on, and with extra time and penalty kicks now in play, teams that are relatively equal could play cautiously late in the second half.  This perhaps makes fulltime draws more likely, including the US match.  But again, our hopes are too high and our hearts are full--so we demur.

The English psyche is fraught with memories of losing to Germany in PKs in big tournaments.  We think both teams are beatable, and given England's performance in group play give a slight nod to Germany, especially with Mesut Ozil up front, whom we quite like.  However, we can see both teams playing cautiously, especially in the second half.  If punt you must on this one, punt the draw.

Finally, perhaps the most anticipated match from a pure love of the beautiful game standpoint, we have Argentina v Mexico.  Argentina is heavily favored, and we give them the nod as our pick of the weekend's matches.  But we think the odds on Mexico are highly skewed, and if you're looking to slap down 10 bucks for the hell of it, you can't do any better this weekend than dropping the price of a few pints on Mexico, who have been playing well since the pre-WC friendlies.  We don't think a Mexican hat dance over Messi and Maradona Inc is probable, but it's certainly possible.  Arriba Mexico! Our brothers in the CONCACAF!