Thursday, November 5, 2009

EPL Handicapping: Stoke at Hull City

By El Chupacabra

We've chosen Stoke at Hull as our pick of the week. And we like Stoke here. We REALLY like Stoke. The odds for this match make it the best bet of this weekend's fixtures. Hull City FC is in absolute turmoil. Given Jozy Altidor's presence on the squad, we'd love to root for the Tigers, but Altidor has behaved like an absolute moron, and Hull is clearly the weakest team in the league. Hull is beat up and their key creator Geovanni is out with two yellows.

OUR PREDICTION: Stoke to Win. Do it.

LINE: Hull +170 Stoke +150

LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Stoke
- Hull is one place from the bottom of the EPL Table and at the very bottom of the Luchametric Power Rankings. Stoke has an advantage of 1.3 Standard Devs over Hull. Stoke has had trouble scoring on the road but Hull has had trouble scoring, period, and they give up more goals. Finally, in a close match, even on the road, we expect Stoke to create better chances than Hull. They have a considerable advantage in our measure of quality scoring chances of nearly two full StandDevs.

RECENT TRAVEL: Hull City - Stoke will travel about 140 miles to Hull for the match. Both teams have not played since last weekend.

MOTIVATION: Draw - Hull City is in turmoil and looking to somehow get out of the relegation zone. Stoke City is looking to establish itself as a solid, upper level club and garner an invitation to the Europa League. If the Hull locker room hasn't succumbed already to defeatism, they'll come out swinging.

RECENT FORM: Advantage: Stoke - Nine points in its last six matches as compared to Hull's four. Most importantly, Stoke has two wins and a draw in its last three matches.

INJURIES: Advantage: Stoke - Hull is beat up. Stoke is at full strength.

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