Saturday, May 8, 2010

Luchametric Power Rankings Updated: The MLS Big Three and the End of Parity


It's early, it's early, um, AND it's still early. But the latest update of the Luchametric tells us that LA, the Crew, and the revived Red Bulls sit atop the league and have opened a substantial gap between the top three and the rest of the league.

The top three are all within .65 of a STD DEV of each other in the Z-Score and are all above 1500 in the actual LM score.  The rest of the league is below 1500, with Chicago closest at 1199, and only the top three are over 1.00 STD DEVs above the league average.

One thing we like about the LM is that it takes into account the different factors which distort the league point standings (most importantly, Games Played) and provides a single score that allows for a comparison of all the teams in the league that is more representative of a team's success than mere points or even Points per Game can provide.

We'd also point out that Chicago and San Jose have moved up in the rankings and should be treated with seriousness by team managers and punters alike.

Finally, the bottom three (Toronto, Philly, and DC) remain at the bottom and still are playing substantially poorer than the rest of the league.  There is much parity in the middle, but at this early stage, there is less parity across the entire league than we've seen in recent years.

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