LA at Columbus Preview: Offensive Statistical Insights

By El Chupa
First off, I know you can't see the data given the technical limitations of free blogging, but if you click on the image at the left you'll be able to see a much larger version of it. Here's the skinny.

The chart gives us a break down of each team's leading offensive players. And as we've explained elsewhere, Pro and Pro/GM are Luchametric numbers that allow us to compare the overall offensive contributions or production of individual players. As you can see, Garey leads both teams with 4.05/GM, followed by Beckham, Schelotto, Buddle, Donovan and Lenhart. In Overall Production for the season, Schelotto is on top followed by Donovan, and both are light-years ahead of the rest of the players on both teams. This is not only a reflection of their individual ability, but also their role on their respective teams (the fact that their job is to score and create scoring chances for others so they will naturally have higher numbers than, say, the goalkeeper). Notice also that Schelotto leads both teams when it comes to how many minutes it takes him before he produces either a Goal or an Assist with 105. Garey is second at 110.5 followed by Donovan (115.31) and then Beckham (124.6).

And as we've discussed elsewhere, we think one of the leading indicators of the quality of a scorer is the percentage of Shots on Goal that player turns into actual goals, as a scorer's merit is determined not simply by how many opportunities he either creates on his own or are given to him by his teammates, but the rate at which he actually converts those opportunities into goals. And in this category, Schelotto is the winner, as over one-half of his SOGs turn in to actual goals. Give him an inch, he'll take a freaking mile. Donovan is second at .40.

The numbers tell us what most of us already know: these teams match up extremely closely offensively. Both Beckham and Garey lead their respective teams in Pro/GM but both have played only just over 600 minutes. This suggests that given more playing time, their numbers would drop back down a bit closer to the standard set by Schelotto and Donovan, if not lower. But clearly each team can get goals out of a number of different players and from a number of positions on the field.

One thing we like about the Crew, however, is that they have more players with over two goals each. This confirms what we've already known for a while: that the Crew is very balanced and deep when it comes to putting players on the pitch who can pressure the other team and get the ball in the back of the net (case in point: Lenhart coming off the bench). In a tight game, especially late in the game, this gives the Crew a definite advantage over the rest of the league and over LA, especially at home. It also speaks well for the team's prospects in the playoffs.

LA vs Crew Preview: To Parity and Beyond!

By El Chupa
As the numbers to the left reveal (click to see a larger image), the Crew and LA are tied in virtually every category. The Crew have a narrow lead in total points, and points earned per game. And they have more home wins (HW), but they have only one more win overall than the Galaxy. The Crew have 38 Total Goals to the Galaxy's 35, and they both have virtually the same number of Shots and Shots on Goal. They also are basically tied when it comes to Shots on Goal per Game, Corners Taken, Shots on Goal Allowed, and Corners Against. QSHT is a raw measure of the number of SOGs above the league average that each team has created that were indeed high quality scoring chances, and again the difference is negligible. Most importantly, the Luchametric has them separated by a mere .3 of a STDEV. That amounts to a deadlock. Finally, it must be noted that LA's numbers don't reflect a full season with Beckham in the lineup.

This game will come down to tactics, individual match-ups, home field advantage, and whether each team performs to its full potential. We fear the Crew are staring another draw in the face, with which they should probably be satisfied. The pressure to send a message to LA and the league by earning a full three points is high, however, and the Crew are running out of home games. The pressure not to give up three points, however, is even higher. We'll be doing a comparison of each team's scorers later today or tomorrow.

Man City at Man U: The Thrill! The Abject Despair! The Orgasmatic Rush of Confliction!

By El Chupa

El Chupa and El Luchador LOATHE Man U. But El Chupa found himself in emotional turmoil as his wager on Man U went from won to lost to won to lost to won in the freaking final minute of extra time. Holy shit. The only thing better is sex...but just barely. With Man U's win and a win on a last-minute wager on LA over TOR El Chupa had a good weekend. But I still hate 'em.

MLS Power Rankings: Crew and LA Still Headed for Showdown

By El Chupa
We've tweaked the metric and updated the rankings through last weekend's games. The Crew are still on top. Regardless of LA's embarrassing loss at home to bottom feeders DAL, they maintain their hold on second place. CHI and DC round out the top four.

One obvious oddity: DC is ranked higher than SEA. Look, DC has lost to SEA twice in the last two weeks and yet DC is ranked higher. Get over it. SEA has DC's number and obviously match up better against DC than DC matches up against them. But in terms of overall production week in and week out (wins, losses, goals, etc) DC is slightly better. We stand by the rankings in spite of the head-to-head results. Right now DC's recent form is +2 while SEA's is -2. That's a big part of the difference in the rankings.

In terms of the tweaks to the metric, we think we were weighting away wins too high and losses too low. We also took out Assists and Shots entirely, and we added a measure we call "Quality Chances" or essentially "Quality SOGs." This is a measure of the percentage of SHTS and SOGS a team creates which were actually good chances to score rather than crappy shots that had no chance at all. We've noticed that overall, the sheer number of SHTS a team generates is not a useful way of distinguishing one team from another in terms of actual goals scored. The ratio of SHTs to Gs varies hardly at all across the league. But we HAVE noticed that the best teams have a slightly higher percentage of Goals to SOGS. In other words, the best teams get more goals out of the sheer number of SOGs they create. Another way to think of it is that not all SHTs or SOGs are created equally, so the metric needs to address this. A lame-ass SOG that has absolutely no chance of going in the net ends up in the box score as a SOG and so gets weighted in the metric just as heavily as an SOG that was in fact a true quality scoring chance. The new category attempts to address this by distinguishing teams in terms of how many actual quality scoring chances they create relative to the rest of the league. We'll break the numbers down in more detail later in the week. Right now. El Chupa has to get back to work.

Updated Power Rankings: Crew Still on Top Despite Loss

By El Chupa
The Luchametric has been fully tweaked and updated through last weekend's games. El Chupa has a job and a life and does not have time to discuss the tweaks right now. But I wanted to get the new rankings up for our loyal readers in time for any wagers you might be considering. A full explanation of the changes is forthcoming. The short version is that we've added a measure of Recent Form to the metric, as well as calculated the Z-Score for each measure of Production (both the season total and the Production per Game). I'll explain the Z-Score tomorrow. The only interpretive comments I have time for are to note that the Crew still rule and to note how far LA has climbed in the rankings.

MLS Cup Win Also Brings CONCACAF Champions League Berth

Overlooked in the Crew’s double championship season has been the fact that in addition to winning the MLS Cup and the Supporters Shield, the Crew has gained its second ever berth in the CONCACAF Champions League (formerly the CONCACAF Champions' Cup).

Beginning in July of next year, Columbus will compete in the premier club competition for the 40 countries that make up the Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football.

The winner of the 24-team tournament, which runs through April 2010, will gain CONCACAF's spot in the 2010 FIFA Club World Cup

Under the current rules, the United States’ top four club teams are admitted. The other three U.S. teams who have qualified are Houston Dynamo, New York Red Bulls and DC United. In the 46 years of the tournament, only two U.S. clubs have ever won it: DC United (1998) and Los Angeles Galaxy (1997 & 2000). The only other team to qualify so far for the 2009-10 tournament is Panama’s Arabe Unido.

Columbus’ only other CANCACAF bid came in 2003 by virtue of their 2002 Lamar Hunt US Open Cup victory. That year, the Crew was knocked out 6-2 on aggregate by Monarcas Morelia of Mexico.

In the 2009-10 competition, 16 clubs will compete in a two-leg preliminary round, with the eight winners advancing to the group stage. The other eight teams in the group stage are seeded directly by virtue of their finish in their domestic leagues the prior year, meaning Columbus will be seeded directly into the group stage. The group stage involves four groups of four with each team playing the others in its group in both home and away matches. The top two teams from each group move on to the knockout rounds, which consist of two-legged home and away series. The final also will be a two-legged home and away series.

This is going to be a great opportunity for Crew fans to see some premier clubs from Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. El Luchador predicts a strong showing from the Crew. Columbus till I die!