Saturday, March 13, 2010

MLS Solidarity Sets Clock, Issues Edict

The fan group MLS Solidarity today added a countdown timer to its Web site to remind the U.S. soccer community and the capitalist money-grubbers in MLS management that time is running out to make a deal and save the season.

"Don Garber, Mark Abbott and the other bosses at MLS need to wake up and realize that we are dangerously close to the brink here," said MLS Solidarity Presidente Nordecke Luchador. "The clock is ticking for them to come to the table honestly."

The group has a Facebook page and an underground network of players and operatives within MLS. In addition to the countdown clock, MLS Solidarity issued the following edict:

We the fans of Major League Soccer call on the management of the league to finally abandon their dishonest, selfish position and come to the negotiating table in good faith. We stand in solidarity with the players, and we stand ready to support them by any means necessary. 


Multiple sources report that the players on Friday voted 383-2 to go on strike if a deal is not reached by 12:01 Eastern Time on March 23.
The union's collective bargaining agreement has expired, and league management have indicated they would be willing to start the season March 23 under the terms of the expired agreement. By voting to strike, the players have called the managers' bluff.
"They have not been negotiating in good faith, and we needed to show that we are united and serious," one player told MLS Solidarity. "We will not blink. If there's no agreement, we strike. Period."
Negotiators met twice this week with a federal mediator in Washington but the players moved no nearer their goals of more guaranteed contracts and greater free agency opportunities.
"The meetings this week were productive and we scheduled a number of additional meetings," MLS president Abbott lied to the Associated Press.
Remaining business for the group includes outing the 2 scabs who voted not to strike.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

CBA Must Change if MLS is Ever Going to be Truly Major League

By El Chupa

As El Chupa has returned the focus of his massive intellect to the MLS and EPL, he's run across more than a few references to MLS fans who actually think that teams in the MLS can compete in the EPL or the other European Leagues.  Such would-be rocket scientists often cite the dominance of the few teams at the top of the various tables, believing MLS clubs could take on, say, Portsmouth and win.  There are also apparently MLS "haters" who take every opportunity to bash the MLS given its obvious inferiority.  Allow El Chupa to set the record straight.  Number one: the MLS is not even close to the real major leagues; number two: who cares? Number three: only renegotiating the current draconian CBA will make the league better.

First off, what do we and the players want? The following: free agency; guaranteed contracts; quality of life concessions; a higher minimum salary.  Note that El Chupa also thinks the players should trade all four of the above for a salary cap or some measure that could keep salaries in line with the economics of the league so the league doesn't implode. However, we also think that the league has to open its books and move toward some sort of revenue sharing or luxury tax on the salaries of big stars so that teams in larger markets don't dominate the league and (most importantly) so that salaries aren't held down artificially by the league in order to maximize profits for the league at the expense of the players who are, in fact, the product.  But then again, we support health care reform, so we're probably socialist radicals.

But what about the overall quality of the league?  Prior to the Crew’s surprising draw on Tuesday, Brian Strauss over at Soccer Fanhouse painted a rather bleak picture of the Crew's and the entire MLS' prospects in the CONCACAF Champions League:

"Since 2001, not a single MLS team has reached the Champions Cup/League finals. The performance since the competition was expanded two years ago has been awful. In the 2008-09 Champions League, MLS compiled a shocking 2-10-6 record. This year it is a less humiliating 7-9-8, but just one of its five entrants (Toronto FC claimed Canada's spot) advanced to the quarterfinals. The fact that the league gets so many spots in the competition is, frankly, indefensible."

Strauss' larger point was about the relative competitiveness of the MLS compared to other leagues.  "Could an MLS team compete in England or Spain? People ask these questions as if they matter. It's a fantasy. Clubs in those leagues are barely playing the same sport."

That the MLS is inferior to the major European leagues is obvious.  Yes, the European tables are dominated by a few clubs with huge bank accounts, and there is no revenue sharing or salary cap in the European leagues as there is in the NBA, NFL and NHL.  This leads to only a few teams having a legitimate shot at a league title.  The various national cups (FA cup, King’s Cup in Spain) and the UEFA leagues offer much compensation for these deficiencies, however. 

Regardless, MLS fans have to remember that not only are there first divisions in Europe, there are dozens of lower divisions brimming with talent.  The MLS’ competitive deficiencies are a result of the fact that it lacks a firmly established, highly sophisticated, highly efficient and productive soccer structure as in Europe which could train and produce talent from grade-school on up.  Arsenal’s Samir Nasri, whose stunning goal in Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League match against Porto is worth watching over and over, was signed by Pennes Mirabeau at the age of six.  There are millions of young men playing soccer in the streets of Europe; and there are sophisticated and established systems for funneling those players into developmental leagues and beyond.  The US system is absolutely Paleolithic by comparison.  This is one reason why Nordecke Luchador would love to see the MLS and the USL combined allowing for relegation and promotion.  But I digress. 

US soccer has gotten to the point where our starting XI are legitimate contenders on the international stage—not to win the World Cup but to qualify and compete. We own the CONCACAF and that should not change, much to the chagrin of our South American compadres (do they play soccer in Canada?)  But we are not deep. Our B teams have performed miserably since the Confederations Cup, and Bradley hopefully now knows what serious fans of the Yanks have sadly come to realize in the last year: one injury (Davies, Onyewu) and we don’t have the developmental structure to replace them.

Pay attention the next time you watch La Liga, Serie A, the EPL or the Bundesliga.  Notice how often a starting player you would kill to have play for your MLS team or the USMNT is mentioned as not making his home country’s squad in South Africa this summer.  My reaction is often: you’ve got to be kidding me? How many freaking world class strikers does France freaking need?!  The US simply doesn’t have the same "problem."  If Torres goes down for Liverpool in the next few weeks with a torn ACL, Spain can replace him.  Without Davies, the US is in serious trouble.  There are starters on the USMNT who play in Europe in the lower divisions rather than the MLS.  Meanwhile, there are MLS "stars" who when they play as part of the USMNT "B" team reveal just how shallow is our talent pool.  Conor Casey is one example.  He scores boo-coo goals in the MLS but doesn't look even fast enough let alone satisfactorily skilled to play at the international level.

So the MLS has a ways to go.  But El Chupa’s other point is this: who cares?

Look, if you watch the MLS because you want to delude yourself that it is a legitimate, world-class professional soccer league, you’re either under the age of twelve or you’re a moron.  You should watch the MLS because it’s all we've got, because you desperately want the league to get better and it needs your support to get there, and because you want your grandkids to live in a world where the MLS has developed to the point where a country of 300 million (the US) can produce not just 25, but 50 or 75 or 100 players who can compete with the players in countries like Spain (45 million); Holland (17 million); or the Czech Republic (10 million). 

The key, really, is whether the MLS business model is moving us toward that day or if the league is a mere fast-sport franchise (the International House of Soccer)--one that is slightly profitable as a business but will never garner the market-share necessary to further US soccer development as a whole.  We think the latter.  And we think changing the CBA is a vital step towards insuring that within a generation or two we will have produced not one Nasir but dozens and that they will be playing in cities across the country in a truly major soccer league.

One more thing: Alexi Lalas is a douche.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Group Formed to Support MLS Players Union

In  less than 24 hours nearly 100 people have signed on to a Facebook group formed to support the MLS Players Union in their struggle to achieve economic justice against the exploitive labor practices of the International House of Soccer (AKA Major League Soccer).

The Nordecke Luchador formed the group MLS Solidarity to show which side the fans are on.

"League bosses Don Garber and Mark Abbott (pictured at left) need to see that the fans will not tolerate the continued exploitation of the players," El Luchador said in a written statement. "We in Crew Soccer Nation call on our brothers and sisters in other Fandoms to step up, join our group and demonstrate where they stand. The old union cry is as true today as it was 50 years ago: 'Which Side Are You On?'"

For a detailed analysis of the many insustices built into the present system by the MLS , read this article by the Houston Chronicle's Jose De Jesus Ortiz.     

Sunday, March 7, 2010

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal, Spurs

By El Chupa
El Chupa is back after a long hiatus with the updated EPL Power Rankings.  There are no real surprises.  Chelsea is on top followed by Man U and then Arsenal.  Given Chelsea's game in hand over Man U, our readers should not be surprised at the difference between our rankings and the actual point standings. Plus, the difference between the two teams is negligible.


The differences among the top three are also minor.  Chelsea is about .25 of a StandDev above Arsenal, which is not much.  Spurs are a solid fourth but our rankings reveal a small but significant gap between the top three and Spurs.  This is largely due, we think, to the difference between the top three and Spurs in goals scored.  The top three all are at or above 2.3 Goals per Game while Spurs has managed only 1.79.  The bottom line for Spurs fans, however, is that the teams lurking below them are all extremely close in the rankings suggesting strongly that they all have a legitimate shot at the fourth spot and a European tour next year--especially if they have any home games against Spurs left in the schedule (we don't have time to check that out at the moment).

Finally, TOFFEES!  Everton is really too far behind in PTS to crack the top four, but our rankings show what anyone watching Everton at least since Donovan has joined them if not earlier know: the Toffees are tough and virtually a different team than they were when we went on hiatus.  At that time, their LM ranking was in the negative and they were well down in the standings.  Now they are a rock solid fifth and ranked ahead of teams ahead of them in the actual PTS standings including Liverpool.  We stand by our rankings.  Everton beat Chelsea and Man U in February before their no-doubt-disappointing loss to Spurs at White Hart Lane later in the month.  Teams going to Everton the rest of the season will face a tough opponent in excellent form. We dig it.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Don Garber's Own Words Deceive Him

What the MLS Commissioner never explains here is this: Why does the continued growth of the league depend on not honoring players' contracts? Why can't we honor players' contracts and still have economic success for the MLS?

Friday, March 5, 2010

Fellow Leftist in the Struggle Will Mediate MLS Labor Dispute

Things are looking up for the MLS Players Union, as the man assigned to arbitrate the ongoing labor dispute over the expired and oppressive Collective Bargaining Agreement is a long-time pro-labor activist appointed by Barack Obama to the federal agency responsible for resolving conflicts between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie.


Union President Bob Foose continues to refuse to comment on the situation, but the Associated Press reports that the capitalists who control the means of production at the International House of Soccer and the MLS Players Union “have accepted an offer from George H. Cohen, director of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, to serve as mediator.”

According to this article from the Peggy Browning Fund, Cohen has a 40-year career supporting workers in their struggle against capitalists like Crew General Manager Mark McCullers and their multiple schemes for enriching themselves at the expense of the people who actually produce value in our economy.

According to the article, Cohen is known for his support of the “progressive, union and worker-friendly agenda.”

El Luchador stands side-by-side with all working people in the Crew Soccer Nation as we support our Brothers in Black and Gold in their struggle against the dark side of the Force.

And we salute George H. Cohen for agreeing to help us in our fight to bring economic justice to the MLS.

Columbus and Union Until I Die!

Which side are you on?

Monday, March 1, 2010

Luchador's Return

Christmas vacation is finally over for the Nordecke Luchador as he returns from his extended annual sabbatical in Cuba, the motherland.

For those who requested cigars, send a note on Facebook.

Much has transpired this winter while the Masked One was away.
  • The capitalist overlords who run the International House of Soccer have stubbornly pushed MLS to the brink of ruin in their blind and brutal beat down of the workers. Talks continue to get a new collective bargaining agreement. El Luchador predicts the season will start as scheduled, but the dispute will drag on well into the year with a real potential for work stoppage before the play-offs.
  • Schelotto stood his ground against party boss Mark McCullers and will stay another season.
  • The Crew signed strength up front to replace Alejandra Moreno with the signing of Columbian Sergio Herrera. 
  • And Jed Zayner launched, then apparently killed a blog that was at times entertaining, vulgar, informative and even occasionally grammatically correct.  
Now we stand with just days until the season starts with what my comrade Eric Paxton calls "Crewsgiving," the CONCACAF Champions League match versus Toluca March 9.

This is an extra bonus game that is a vestige of the 2008 Miracle on Grass season.

Dear faithful readers, El Luchador is back. Does my Massiveness offend you?


    Saturday, December 19, 2009

    Nordecke Luchador's Holiday Favorites

    In 1996, the Nordecke Luchador first burst on to the underground Christmas DJ Scene with his breakthrough cult classic LP “What Is Going to Happen?” which climbed to No. 1 on the Bohemian Top 200. After a sabbatical that included stops in Tahoe and Mumbai, El Luchador returns with this instant timeless classic, a compilation of contemporary pieces, remixes and mash-ups, carefully selected to bring a Luchametric groove to any holiday occasion, from Hanukah to Kwanza and everywhere in between. Voted on Twitter as the 2009 recipient of the “Convergence Award,” this study in Americanism brings both comfort and a sense of disquieting rectitude on the long nights of winter. Below is a complete list from the album, which is available only by special order for people who have been nice. Niceness is determined by El Luchador in consultation with Santa. At right is a partial list available for play now. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from The Nordecke Luchador. Go Crew! Columbus Till I Die.


     




















    Los Lonely Boys - Feliz Navidad
    Ella Fitzgerald - White Christmas
    Stephen Colbert - Another Christmas Song
    Mary Blige & Sheryl Crow – Rockin Around the Christmas Tree
    Blind Boys of Alabama & Tom Waits – Go Tell it on the Mountain
    Brian Setzer Orchestra – Sleigh Ride
    Staple Sisters - The Last Month of the Year
    Bob Crosby & His Orchestra – Skaters Waltz
    Brian Setzer Orchestra My Favorite Things
    Stephen Colbert Can I Interest You in Hannukah?
    Neil Diamond – Hark the Herald Angels Sing
    Stevie Wonder – The Christmas Song
    Frank Sinatra – Ave Maria
    Old and In the Way – Angel Band
    Judy Garland – Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas
    Liza Minnelli – Bye, Bye Blackbird
    Grateful Dead – We Bid You Goodnight

    Monday, December 7, 2009

    US vs England South Africa 2010: English Soccer Tyranny, Like Hell, is not Easily Conquered

    By El Chupacabra

    This is a rant. If you don't like them, tune out now.

    US v England, Rustenberg, South Africa, June 12, 2010 at 20:30.

    It's on people. Don't try to talk El Chupa off of the ledge. This ain't no friendly. El Chupa is not an Anglophile--oh, no, far from it. Pack your toothbrush, forswear fish and chips, English ale and Elizabeth Hurley and prepare to get it on. Seriously, El Chupa will never forgive Italy for Brian McBride's broken nose and the two red cards in 2006 when we held the cowardly Azzurri to a tie. Never. Few teams other than Italy and Mexico raise El Chupa's blood pressure. But this June he will add another vaunted foe to his list of nasties: Rooney and company--the limey bastards.

    We may watch, follow and admire the EPL. But we do so for its international flavor and quality of play. The fact that it has Drogbas, and Van Persies and Torres. We don't watch, follow and admire it because toothless chavs populate the stands high on meth and cheap, high-alcohol English lager.

    We were thinking of writing a funny piece using the usual stereotypes of the English in an ironic, gently humorous fashion. But we gave up. And we're dead serious. If you think any football fan in Europe has respect for American soccer, the American team, or American soccer fans, you're on crack. They don't. They may like Donovan, and Dempsey and Howard, but they know we're not deep, and they know and love the fact that our team embarrassed itself and the country in Germany in 2006.

    Have you ever noticed how violent are the matches between our boys and the big powers in world soccer? Have you ever noticed that we never get the calls in said matches? And that we frequently acquire red cards on the most ridiculous of pretenses? It's not a conspiracy. It's a deep-seeded psychological resentment of American political, cultural and economic hegemony.

    In the view of most of the soccer world, the beautiful game is theirs not ours, and we're like the handsome and successful outsider who comes to the wedding and all the girls want to do him and the local boys get pissed and wait outside to beat the leaving crap out of him when he tries to leave in his fancy new car none of them can afford. You've seen that movie? Right.

    As such, I urge my readers to step up and stifle any friendly talk around the water cooler or in your local pub about this mother of all matches. This ain't no weeny roast. Get your Gadsden flag ready, stock the fridge with the American craft and micro brews that now put European and British ales to shame and get ready to freaking rumble. Yeah, we respect the other team, but we don't like them, not at all. It's time to earn the respect US soccer fans so desperately crave by sticking a big thumb in the eye of the Lion.

    There's a malaise of mind in American soccer given its status as a sport of the white, upper-middle class, that sees it as a gentlemanly game much like tennis and golf. Bullshit. Have you tuned in on a sleepless night to the 1:00 am game on FSC or Gol to watch an obscure match from South America or Europe only to be astonished at how physical is the play? This ain't tiddly winks, as Elizabeth Lambert has so ably and admiringly demonstrated. And it's time American soccer fans acquire the ruthless madness of fanaticism required to urge our boys to victory. In the words of Thomas Paine:

    "The summer soldier [think: polite American soccer fan] and the sunshine patriot [think: bandwagon fan] will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman."

    In short, it's time to get just wee bit angry people, it's not time to get scared. This is Lexington and freaking Concord not an exhibition game of Old Maid. El Chupa is not at all scared. He can't wait for the bodies to hit the floor. Any US fan who says otherwise better step back.

    "Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph."

    Friday, December 4, 2009

    EPL Handicapping: Aston Villa over Hull City


    By El Chupacabra
    Villa over Hull at Villa Park (no U.S. TV). Do it. Here's why.

    This is not a terribly interesting weekend in EPL betting-wise or even just in terms of good matches. Regarding the latter, Chelsea at Man City could be a good one to watch (its the only one that looks remotely interesting), but we think Chelsea will choke off City's attack and then dutifully put in a goal or two (or three). But other than this contest, there are no marquee match ups.

    Hull at Villa is the best bet of the weekend. Villa at home at -220 earns you just under 50% and its the surest thing you'll find this weekend at decent odds. Remember, look for home teams you think have the best chance of winning and try to stay around a 50% return or better. Villa leads Hull in the Luchametric by over 1.0 StandDevs. Hull's recent form is definitely better than Villa, but Villa is at home looking for a sure three points from a league bottom-feeder. What's more, Villa are one of four finalists in the Carling Cup and have not lost at home since the opening day of the season, winning four of their last six matches in front of their own fans.

    OUR PREDICTION: Villa to win.


    MONEY
    LINE: Villa-220 Hull +755 Draw +358

    LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Villa -
    The Villans have an advantage of nearly 1.2 Stand Devs in the LM measure of production per game. We consider 1.0 StdDevs as indicative of a significant competitive difference between any two teams.

    RECENT TRAVEL: Draw - Villa played at Portsmouth Tuesday in the Carling Cup. Hull has rested since last weekend's match away. Still, Hull has to travel to 137 miles or 2.5 hours by bus to get to Villa Park.

    MOTIVATION: Draw - Villa's recent form and position in the table give them all the incentive in the world to grab three points and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Hull look to continue their recent form and continue to climb out of relegation and erase the nightmare of the first few weeks of the season.

    RECENT FORM: Advantage: Hull. Hull has earned nine points in their last six matches, Villa seven. Hull has two wins and two draws in their last four.

    INJURIES: Draw - Both teams have have a few injuries but no major absences to report.

    Tuesday, December 1, 2009

    EPL Power Rankings: Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea

    By El Chupacabra

    The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's fixtures. As always you may download an Excel file with the data here. Chelsea is on top (duh) followed by Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. Chelsea has opened quite a bit of space in the official table and in the rankings. They are now nearly a full StandDev (.92) over second place Man U. We have Arsenal ahead of Spurs by .37 of a Stand Dev. We think the nine goals Spurs scored against Wigan were a fluke and that they'll move further down the rankings in the weeks ahead.

    Chelsea's dominance is most obvious on defense. They allow the fewest Goals Against per game in the league (.57), the fewest Shots on Goal Against per game in the league (2.5) and the lowest percentage of SOGA to SHTs Against (.26). This latter stat tells us that only 26% of the oppositions' shots are actually on goal, giving us a sense of how few quality chances Chelsea actually allows its opponents (the league average is 37%)

    They also lead the league in Recent Form, and have now beaten Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal and Spurs. The season is far from over, and Man U lurks five points behind with a home game against Chelsea still to come. But seriously people, the Blues have a shot at the EPL crown, the Champions league and the FA cup. I'd still take Barca over Chelsea at this point, but what a match it would be.

    Friday, November 13, 2009

    Union Till I Die: Which Side Are You On?

    By El Luchador
    The capitalists who run the International House of Soccer (MLS) have long treated the workers like 19th Century French coal miners. For some time now, El Luchador’s sources within the soccer labor movement have warned that negotiations have not gone well for the collective bargaining agreement that expires at the end of this year.

    The Columbus Dispatch this morning sensationalizes the situation on its front page. (Read article here.)

    Brother Shawn Mitchell writes:

    Major League Soccer players will strike or be locked out next season unless collective-bargaining negotiations between their union and the league make a drastic improvement, sources with knowledge of negotiations said.

    A collective-bargaining proposal made by the league last week was "very disappointing," said Crew goalkeeper William Hesmer.

    Set aside for a moment that Ohio's Greatest Home Newspaper will only put soccer on the front page when it is a negative story about a labor dispute. (Just think if the Crew were building a casino).

    The Major League Soccer Players Union was formed in April 2003 to promote the best interests of all MLS Players. The founding members of the Players Union’s Executive Board included Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, Chris Klein, Alexi Lalas and Ben Olsen. The Players Union serves as the exclusive collective bargaining representative for all current players in Major League Soccer.

    League Pit Boss Don Garber strikes an optimistic tone in the Mitchell article, saying there is “plenty of time to finalize a new agreement … There will be many more meetings, many more discussions about a wide variety of issues.

    El Luchador encourages his faithful followers to read the current collective bargaining agreement, which is available here.

    You will see that it is structured to give the capitalists who control the means of production at the International House of Soccer the maximum ability to exploit the labor of the brave men who actually go out on the field and do the work.

    Essentially, the American economic model for professional soccer is a form of 21st Century indentured servitude.

    Union President Bob Foose and the players are working to alter the structure of MLS player contracts. The current agreement does not offer guaranteed contracts, or any form of free agency and entangles the players in one-way options that maximize the power of the teams over individual players. In most cases, players are forced to sign semi-guaranteed contracts, which allow the team bosses to cut players before July 1 without having to pay out their contracts.

    This is highly exploitive of the lower level players, who are left with sweatshop wages and no measure of control over their careers. (Keep in mind, for example, that Steven Lenhart’s base salary this year was less than $34,000. That was a huge increase over his 2008 of $12,900.) For more on MLS salaries, read this article from the Luchametric archive.

    After players are released, their teams retain their rights, which forces other teams to trade for those rights if they want to sign that player, thus making it very difficult for the players to negotiate and find a new home.

    All the union wants is a collective bargaining agreement that abides by the same rules as the rest of the planet under FIFA.

    As Crew Midfielder Brian Carroll told the Dispatch: “It's about rights more than money. But we want things to be fair. That's all anybody can ask for."

    El Luchador stands behind his brothers in Black & Gold and across the MLS as they fight for economic justice.

    Tuesday, November 10, 2009

    Arsenal and Chelsea Outpace the Pack in Updated Power Rankings

    By El Chupacabra
    The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Monday's match at Anfield. Arsenal is back on top followed, again extremely closely, by Chelsea. Man U and Man City round out the top four but are significantly back of the top two.

    Notice that a mere .16th of a StandDev separates the Gunners from the Blues. Chelsea has more points and more wins, but Arsenal has more goals (as always, you can look at the comprehensive data here). The Goal Differential of both teams is nearly identical: 22 for Arsenal; 21 for Chelsea. Arsenal has played one game less than Chelsea, and this accounts for the difference in wins to some extent.

    Before you Blues fans blow a gasket, consider that the difference between the two teams is really negligible, at least statistically, but it comes down to this: Arsenal is a better offensive club, Chelsea the better defensive club. And Chelsea is probably more balanced overall.
    The Luchametric weighs a number of different variables, and it could be that we need to look at the defensive side of the model. We have a measure for Quality Scoring Chances, for example, and in this measure Arsenal is clearly superior. But we're still looking at comprenhesive statistical measures of a team's defense.

    We can say this, however: A full 42 % of the Gunners' Shots on Goal become goals, compared to 30% for Chelsea. That's a 25% difference. Also, 32% of Arsenal's SOG Against become Goals Against, compared to 25% for Chelsea (the league average is 25%; the league leaders are Villa with an impressively low 18%). Arsenal allows 1.27 GA per game, while Chelsea allows a mere .67 GA per game. And Chelsea allows only 2.67 SOGA per game, while Arsenal allows 4.0 SOGA. That's fairly significant. Chelsea is unbelievably stingy. You may have noticed on Sunday if you caught the game against Man U that Chelsea had the usual four man back line, but then frequently had another two men behind that. They were in essence playing a sort of 2-4-3-1 or you could just call it a 5-4-1. This shows both their respect for Man U and the genius of Ancelotti.

    At this point, given the history of the league and of the big four, its understandable why so much attention still gets paid to Liverpool, who really are in trouble at this point, and that so many people continue to doubt Wenger's confidence that his club is playing for the title. But the evidence is clear: this year, barring injuries (Bendtner), Chelsea and Arsenal are the cream of the league. We look forward to the November 29 match at Emirates against Chelsea. This will be the true test of the two teams and should be some outstanding football. The league's best attacking club against the league's most balanced and most stingy club. At Stamford bridge, we'd take Chelsea, but at Emirates, Arsenal will give the Blues all they can handle.

    Friday, November 6, 2009

    Crew 2, Real Salt Lake 3. The Nordecke Address

    One score minus seven years ago, Clark Hunt's father brought forth on this continent, the Crew Soccer Nation, conceived in revelry, and dedicated to the proposition that all men and women are equal in the Nordecke.

    Now, we stand in defeat, having lost a great battle against a violent and undeserving foe, and this loss tests whether Crew Soccer Nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. The battle-field of Crew Stadium stands cold and empty after a promising season ended in misery. And we ask ourselves how we might honor that space and the august Men who dedicated their talent and energy and all their hearts to the battle.

    Hesmer, Hejduk, Brunner, Marshall, Padula, Ekpo, Gaven, Carroll, O'Rourke, Schelotto, Moreno, we honor you. Lenhart, Rogers, Garry, Warzycha. We salute you.

    It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

    But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate, we can not consecrate, we can not hallow, the ground where these men fell in defeat. Our words here are inadequate.

    These brave men who struggled there, have consecrated Crew Stadium, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did there.

    It is for us the fans, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought for us have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us: that from this humbling defeat at the hands of an incompetent referee and dishonest team, we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion, that we here highly resolve that this defeat shall not have been endured in vain, that Crew Soccer Nation shall have a new birth of glory. And that Soccer of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

    Nordecke Luchador joins hands with his brothers and sisters across the land, in solidarity for the Black and Gold, from the Scioto to the Olentangy, from South Bloomfield to Delaware. From Reynoldburg to West Jeff. Columbus Till I Die.

    Thursday, November 5, 2009

    EPL Handicapping: Stoke at Hull City


    By El Chupacabra

    We've chosen Stoke at Hull as our pick of the week. And we like Stoke here. We REALLY like Stoke. The odds for this match make it the best bet of this weekend's fixtures. Hull City FC is in absolute turmoil. Given Jozy Altidor's presence on the squad, we'd love to root for the Tigers, but Altidor has behaved like an absolute moron, and Hull is clearly the weakest team in the league. Hull is beat up and their key creator Geovanni is out with two yellows.

    OUR PREDICTION: Stoke to Win. Do it.

    MONEY
    LINE: Hull +170 Stoke +150

    LUCHAMETRIC: Advantage: Stoke
    - Hull is one place from the bottom of the EPL Table and at the very bottom of the Luchametric Power Rankings. Stoke has an advantage of 1.3 Standard Devs over Hull. Stoke has had trouble scoring on the road but Hull has had trouble scoring, period, and they give up more goals. Finally, in a close match, even on the road, we expect Stoke to create better chances than Hull. They have a considerable advantage in our measure of quality scoring chances of nearly two full StandDevs.

    RECENT TRAVEL: Hull City - Stoke will travel about 140 miles to Hull for the match. Both teams have not played since last weekend.

    MOTIVATION: Draw - Hull City is in turmoil and looking to somehow get out of the relegation zone. Stoke City is looking to establish itself as a solid, upper level club and garner an invitation to the Europa League. If the Hull locker room hasn't succumbed already to defeatism, they'll come out swinging.

    RECENT FORM: Advantage: Stoke - Nine points in its last six matches as compared to Hull's four. Most importantly, Stoke has two wins and a draw in its last three matches.

    INJURIES: Advantage: Stoke - Hull is beat up. Stoke is at full strength.

    The Logic of a Single Table for MLS: Garber Doesn't Get It

    By El Chupacabra

    If you saw the interview with MLS Commissioner Don Garber on Fox Soccer Fone-In on Monday, you saw him respond to a question about implementing a Single Table for the MLS (listen to it here). His response was, and I paraphrase, that he doesn't "get it." His argument is that a single table would make games at the end of the season meaningless.

    Said Garber (and I quote): "The Columbus Crew would have won 10 days before the end of the season. They would have been celebrating the championship at a game where they lost.

    “I understand the heritage and tradition that people enjoy with a single table. But somebody would have to explain to me how that would be better than what we have now, because I’m not getting it."

    Garber's logic is flawed in a few key ways. First and foremost, a single table does not preclude a playoff system. The FIFA tournaments and the UEFA Champions League use a group system and then a knock-out round. One could argue that the current MLS arrangement with two conferences and then a play-off is similar. However, the MLS playoff system as it currently stands takes the top two teams from each group (conference) and then the next four best teams regardless of group (conference). This arrangment essentially amounts to letting the top eight teams in a single table into a knock-out round, which the International House of Soccer calls the MLS Cup. What's worse, the MLS system lets in half of the teams in the league. This year, Real Salt Lake had more losses than wins and amassed a mere 40 pts over the course of the season. The average number of points earned in the league this year was 40.4.

    El Chupa agrees that the games at the end of the season should have meaning. But this desire needs to be balanced with the logic of sport--and the logic of logic.

    If the purpose of any competition is to determine who is the best team, then clearly the team that does the best over time is the best team. Period. The MLS system allows teams which are clearly inferior a shot at knocking off a better team in a short series. Anything can and will happen in a short home and away series. Rubin Kazan just "won" a home and away series over Barcelona. Yesterday in the frigid cold of Kazan's Central Stadium, Rubin kept six defenders back and essentially played for the draw, stifling Barca's vaunted offensive machine who all looked like they were literally freezing their asses off. Is Rubin a better team than Barca? Hardly. Barca will still most likely make it out of their group along with Inter, and the Russian Premier League champions will end up in the UEFA Europa competition. This is as it should be, as the group stage gives teams the chance to recover from upsets, thus insuring that only the very best teams make it through to the knock-out round

    Now, don't El Chupa wrong, he loves it when an underdog sticks it to a better team. It makes for great sport. But such drama doesn't belong in a knock-out round where the true underdogs have no place. In a sound system, the inferior teams will have been eliminated. But in the MLS playoff system, teams that are not even AVERAGE get a shot at being a spoiler, as they aren't eliminated in the "group stage" (regular season).

    Garber also spoke of American "sporting traditions and heritage." Um, by this does he mean he wants the International House of Soccer to follow in the footsteps of the NBA and the NHL, where bad teams get rewarded with a playoff spot for monetary reasons only? The NBA system is a joke. But even in the NBA, the first round is seven games, which make it a legitimate test. If the MLS had a three-game knockout round, it would be one thing. But the current system, which doesn't weight away goals like the UEFA competitions, doesn't do justice to the logic of a sport which demands its own distinct and reasonable means of determining not just the winner of individual competitions, but the best team over the course of several competitions.

    Yes, some times the best team doesn't win. And that's what makes sport exciting. But the International House of Soccer is clearly going for entertainment value over competitive legitimacy.

    We love the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, where Cinderella teams routinely make runs into the Sweet Sixteen--but generally no further and RARELY into the final four. And we certainly think it's the case that truly great teams need to step it up in high pressure situations. But there have to be limits. And we think the current MLS system is unbalanced in favor of sports-O-tainment and of the business of sport. We like salary caps and revenue sharing. We think the European leagues are unbalanced and less interesting than American leagues like the MLS and the NFL where smaller-market teams actually have a chance of being champion. But the fact is: Garber just doesn't get it.

    The solution? A single table with a revamped playoff system that reduces the number of teams which make it to the knock-out stage with the compensation of participation in international competitions based on ranking in the single table. Major League Soccer Rumors offers a very interesting possibility here, and it's one El Chupa endorses. Researching this article has resulted in a dismaying number of douche-bags in the blogo-sphere, including Brian Strauss and Paul Pabst, who also don't get it, and who clearly are coming from a rather provincial perspective that bristles rather xenophobically at the infatuation American soccer fans have with the European leagues. To Pabst's credit, he misses only the obvious point that a single table doesn't preclude a playoff system nor is Pabst anti-European. Strauss is just, well, a douche.

    If you can track down Garber's email (I failed), send him a note reminding him that as long as MLS continues to cater to American sports fans rather than American soccer fans, the MLS will remain the joke it is in the world of International Pancakes--er, I mean football.

    Wednesday, November 4, 2009

    Fight the Power: Come Out Thursday. Do It.

    By El Luchador
    Thursday's home playoff match against the violent, undeserving thugs of Real Salt Lake is more than just an epic battle of good versus evil. It is an opportunity for thinking soccer fans who bleed Black and Gold to step up and show the mainstream establishment of Columbus that we do not subscribe to their way of life.

    Among Columbus sports fans, there is a long-standing tradition, promoted by the Columbus Dispatch and perfected to an art from by Buckeyes: when the going gets rough, shit all over the coach.

    The Dispatch's Mike Arace is trying this week to bring this tradition to the Columbus Crew. Don't let him do it.

    In a screed published on Tuesday, Arace asks: "What was coach Robert Warzycha thinking?" He goes on, predictably, to answer that whatever Our Coach was thinking, it was wrong, and it's going to prove fatal, yada, yada, yada.

    As is typically the case with the hamburger heads at "Ohio's Greatest Hometown Newspaper," Arace went for the low-hanging fruit, questioning Warzycha's decision to bench Guillermo Barros Schelotto in Game One at RSL.

    Employing the Donald Rumsfeld Socratic method of asking sarcastic rhetorical questions, Arace writes: "Isn't that going too far? Was he giving his team its best chance to win? How so?"

    This is the same type of Monday-morning whining that goes on every week across Ohio, as Buckeye Fans hammer the coach for every perceived misstep. Fueled by the pundits at the Dispatch and on stations like 610 WTVN, Buckeye fans funnel every disappointment and failure of their own personal lives into thoughtless criticism of their coach.

    In Crew Soccer Nation, we stand by our coach. We do not subscribe to the fair weather approach of our Buckeye Brethren. We know that football is a fickle lover, that strategies and tactics are not a science but an art, and that history favors the winners.

    Come out Thursday and show the world that we support the Crew through good times and bad. Show Warzycha that we understand and support his decision to start Luchadores Lenhart and Renteria up top in Game One. Show the Man that we shall not be moved by sedition. Show your Buckeye friends how real men and women stand up for their team and their coach in times of difficulty.

    El Luchador's prediction: Crew 2-0 RSL. Robert Warzycha 1-0 Michael Arace.

    Do it. Columbus 'Till I Die!

    Monday, November 2, 2009

    EPL Power Rankings: Blues on Top

    By El Chupacabra

    The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Wednesday's West Ham v Villa fixture. Chelsea is on top followed EXTREMELY closely by Arsenal. Man U and Man City round out the top four.

    Chelsea's nine wins has put them on top of the official league table and at the top of our power rankings. They also allow very few Goals, Shots, and Shots on Goal compared to the rest of the league. Arsenal has scored a league-leading 32 total goals which has contributed much to it's place in the standings. The Gunners have a game in hand and with Chelsea and Man U playing next weekend, Arsenal will have a chance to pass Man U in the official table when they visit Wolves.

    Other movement worth noting. Villa have dropped below Spurs as a result of their loss to the Hammers. West Ham itself is much higher in our table than in the official table. We stand by our rankings. The Hammers are better than the results they've achieved thus far.

    Also, Portsmouth has climbed out of the cellar and perhaps have turned things around. We shall see.

    We'll have more to report once we crunch the numbers.

    Sunday, November 1, 2009

    UEFA Champions League Preview: Play the H1N1 Card

    By El Chupacabra

    You've heard of H1N1. Maybe your household has fallen pray to its ravages. But if there's any week that would be a good week to play the H1N1 card at work (um, call in "sick" because you're sure you've got the flu de pork) it's this week. There are great UEFA Champions league fixtures both Tuesday and Wednesday, and the very best are on FSC. If you don't have the cojones to call in sick, then set your DVR and tell the wife to clear your schedule Tuesday and Wednesday night after work (take advantage of the extra hour today to earn some bonus brownie points from the little lady if need be).

    Here's our picks to watch this week. Taken together, they make this one of the best weeks of the Fall thus far for fans of the beautiful game.

    Chelsea at Atletico Madrid - Tuesday, Nov 3 at 2:30 FSC. Chelsea is at the top of the EPL table, Atletico is near the bottom of the La Liga standings. Atletico is at the bottom of the group standings in Group D in the Champions League with a mere one point, and Chelsea is on top with nine. On the face of it, this is an abject mismatch. But Atletico has their backs to the wall, and Chelsea is flying to Madrid for a midweek match after playing on Saturday. Atletico needs a win to have any chance of surviving the group stage, and they need a win to turn their season around and avoid the embarrassment of relegation. This should be a tough match for Chelsea, and some very enjoyable football.

    Real Madrid at AC Milan - Tuesday, Nov 3 at 2:45 (Live on FSE and Delayed until 7:00 on FSC). If this is the only match you catch this week, catch it. Ronaldo's still out and AC beat Madrid in Madrid in their first meeting. Both teams have six points in the group and both could use a positive result. This a tough group, with Marseille and Zurich lurking closely to the leaders and looking to find their way through. As Dr. Bumba is found of saying, this is "cracker jack" football at its best. Both teams need a win. Watch it. Do it.

    Barca at Rubin Kazan - Wednesday, Nov 4 at 12:30 (Live on FSC). Rubin Kazan currently sits atop of the table in the Russian Premier League. Barca is Barca. Rubin Kazan shocked Barca two weeks ago at Camp Nou, embarassing the reigning UEFA Champions League Champions, Spanish La Liga Champions, and Spanish King's Cup holders. We consider Group F to be the toughest Group in the competition, with Barca, Inter, Rubin Kazan and the Dangerous Dynamo all vying to get through to the next stage. We look for Barca to come prepared but they are facing a long trip, midweek, to play a foe at home who has proven they can play with the best in the world. This should be a great match. We expect Barca to be motivated and prepared to play their very best. If they do, you will see the beautiful game at its absolute finest.

    Liverpool at Lyon - Wednesday, Nov 4 at 2:30 (Live on FSC). Liverpool is on their back, having lost last week to Arsenal in the Carling Cup and on Saturday to Fulham. Who knows? Benitez could be sacked before this match even starts. Needless to say, the Scousers need a win to salvage their chances in the Champions League and to turn their season around. There's too much money on the pitch when the Reds hit the turf for upper management to continue to tolerate mediocre play. Liverpool is not Fulham, nor are they Villa. In other words, playing only asbwell as the latter two clubs is unacceptable for one of richest clubs in the world. Expectations among fans and haters alike are higher than Benitez' squad has yet achieved this year. But enough about the Reds.

    Lyon is in second place in Ligue 1, and on top of the Group with nine points. This is a tough group as well, as Fiorentina is a solid squad, with a dynamic international striker in Gilardino. If you know nothing about Lyon but hate (or love) Liverpool, this should be a good match to watch. Liverpool will push hard to earn three points away as a loss will put them face to face with being eliminated in the group stage.

    There are other fine matches, such as Stuttgart at Sevilla. But if you're picking your spots and have a busy week, you could do much worse than to catch one or two of the above fixtures as you wait for Friday's Crew match against RSL. C-Bus 'till I die.

    Crew Recap: No Fear

    By El Chupacabra

    Yes, we're disappointed at yesterday's playoff result. But not for the reasons the casual Crew fan might expect.

    El Chupa was dismayed not to see Schelloto in the starting XI, but given the result and the comments by Warzycha, he agrees with the strategy.

    We wrote that we'd be happy with the draw, and appprently Warzycha decided that he'd prefer shutting down RSL at midfield and at the back in exchange for looking to score only on the counter-attack. And for 88 minutes the strategy worked.

    A quick review of the Crew blogs (click here and here) reveals how frustrated Crew Nation is at the moment, from the Scioto to the Olentangy, from South Bloomfield to Delaware. From Reynoldburg to West Jeff. And it's understandable. The Luchametric clearly shows how the Crew are an entirely different team with Big Willie running things, creating opportunities for others as well as threatening the opposition's goal by his lonesome.

    But Luchametric tells us something positive about the Crew's chances in the home leg this Thursday: RSL stinks away from Rio Tinto. Barring a draw, a 1-0 loss was really the next-best result for the Crew. RSL scored only nine goals over 15 away games all season or .6 G/GM. And as we wrote in our preview, the two teams were virtually the same in every other category. The Crew return to their own beds and to the friendly confines of Crew Stadium where the Nordecke hordes have inspired them to score 25 goals or 1.67 G/GM. Keeping RSL from scoring was really the number one goal at Rio Tinto, as the Crew needs to advance on aggregate goals scored, and their best chance for scoring, even running up the score, is at home in C-Bus

    In life, as in the beautiful game, there is randomness built into the very fibre of football. Statisticians who study football argue over things like the Bernoulli principle and the Poisson distribution. But for the serious fan who thinks numbers are very useful tools but doesn't feel like getting an advanced degree in higher math, you simply need to know that randomness, or uncontrollable variables, are part and parcel of the game. In short, luck plays a part in when, how, where, and how often goals get scored.

    Yesterday RSL got lucky. That's the way it goes. It is unfortunate for the Crew, but they are hardly on the ropes. They score at home, and they defend well at home. So we relish the chance to see them crush the dirty thugs from RSL and send them packing.

    Yes, they better come to play, and we better see Schelotto in the starting XI on Thursday. El Chupa knows that at every level of sport, a team has to come inspired. Cool and calm is, in short, bullshit. So the Crew needs to step it up. The games are played on the pitch, not on paper, or on your Playstation, Xbox, or Atari. You can bet RSL will be motivated. The Crew needs to play like it's the last game of the year and leave absolutely nothing on the pitch at the end of 90+. We expect they will play like the champions they are. C-bus 'till I die.