Wanted: Nordecke Chant Recordings--Hagado Columbus! Do it!

By MJD 

We were excited to find the following site:

http://www.fanchants.com/football-team/columbus-crew/

which is one of the best, if not THE best collections of football chants on the web.  But, alas, although the lyrics for Crew chants are well represented, there is only one recording of the Nordecke in full warble.  Consider this a request to any and all of the Crew faithful to record and submit Crew chants pronto.  Show the rest of MLS who rules.

In that spirit: here's a new one.  You know the Seattle Sounders chant? See-aaaaaaaaaaaaaa-tle, Sounnnnnnnnnnnn-ders?   Well here's one straight from the lab at the Luchametric institute: 

Te Amo, Columbus, Te amo!

Tay-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe
Co-luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmm-bus
Tey-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe!

Over and over and over and over again.  It's mesmerizing.  Roughly translated: "I love you, Columbus, Columbus, I love you"  Word!  Or, alternatively:

Tay-Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-moe
Co-luuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmmm-bus
Crewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

It's basically a variant of the chant sung by fans of Cruzeiro FC, which I listened to tonight while watching a replay of a Copa Libertadores match--a tourney, by the way, whose semi-finals are upcoming and should help ease the pain until the EPL starts up in mid-August.  The chant sung by the Cruzeiro hoard was beautiful and made me an instant fan of La Bestia Negra! Azuis Celeste!

Hagado Columbus!

Crew Win with Luchametric Formation; Thierry Henry Gets What's Coming to Him

Jack Ruby style, like a thief in the night, El Luchador tonight confronted the cheating Thierry Henry at Crew Stadium after the Red Bulls' humiliating defeat at the hands of the Black and Gold.

Robert Warzycha took the advice of the Luchametric Institute and played the 4-2-3-1 formation in the attacking phase with Renteria up top, and the Crew won handily 2-0 on goals from Renteria and Brian Carroll. Although they "lined up" in the 4-4-1-1 to start both halves, GBS played back deeper than in previous matches and Renteria was the lone marauding striker up front.  And the starts by Expo and Renteria, as we had suggested, clearly gave the crew the attacking prowess they had been lacking.

But the highlight of the evening was when El Luchador spoke truth to power, made Mark McCullers' Security Forces and Columbus Police nervous, and scouted out The Cheater's location to charge in and achieve justice for the people of the Republic of Ireland.  El Luchador did what any sensible football fan would do and called  Henry out on his despicable handball that cost the Irish a place in the World Cup this year.

After France's disgraceful but predictable collapse in South Africa, Henry announced his signing with New York, and he flew to Columbus to witness his team lose to the Crew from a luxury box on the northwest corner of the stadium.

Thierry Henry: As a Frenchman, you know how to surrender. Go ahead and do so  now. Based on what we saw from the Red Bulls tonight, even your cheating ways will not save you or your newly chosen comrades.

Hagalo Columbus! DO IT!

Columbus Crew Tactics: It's Time for a Change

By MJD

A quick glance at the Crew lineups for the current MLS campaign reveals that Warzycha is in a rut.  Let us tread carefully.  RW is a solid manager; more importantly, he's our manager.  And it's not that the Crew aren't doing well. It's just that they don't look like a championship club at this point.  And if the record at football-lineups.com is to be believed, part of the problem, and certainly part of the blame for last night's loss to down-table Kansas City, must lie in the fact that the Crew have become woefully predictable.

The Crew have played a 4-4-1-1 each and every game this season, with relatively minor changes to the starters.  And the 4-4-1-1 has its merits, which we've outlined in an earlier post.  But we're starting to think that at this point in the season, fully half-way through the Crew's campaign, teams in the league have thoroughly scouted the Black and Gold and know too well how to defend against us.  And it's also clear that although the typical starting lineup gives us strength in the midfield and keeps teams at bay (before last night's match our GA/GM was at .86), it sacrifices attack for caution.  Fine. Warzycha is the coach and he gets paid to make the important decisions.  We sincerely respect that.

But we could not help but notice last night that once the attacking subs got in the game, the Crew's energy level went up (understandably), and all of sudden we were swarming all over the KC goal.  On some of the Crew discussion sites, notably Big Soccer, complaints about Schelotto's role in Warzycha's scheme have been around since the start of the season.  Our view is that he's much better used held back, more like a traditional #10.  And in Warzycha's 4-4-1-1, we think Schelotto is pushed up too far and is thus unable to function either as an effective forward/striker, OR as an effective attacking-mid ala World Champion Spain's Xavi.  Last night, late in the match, Ekpo and Renteria were able to create havoc on the Wizards' left, and both showed great flashes of skill both shooting and setting up others.  Plus, we love Renteria's size and his ability to serve as a target for the mids: a striker ala Drogba who can hold the ball, shoot, create. Forza Crew!

As such, here's our dream line-up, at least at home against inferior teams:

In our 4-2-3-1, Renteria moves up top and has license to roam laterally across the top of the Crew's shape.  Rogers starts on the left and is a traditional winger.  Ekpo starts on the right and can fly down the right side or move toward the center to create. Most importantly, Schelotto hangs back as a true center attacking-mid whose job is to create and destribute (ala Xavi), collecting and distributing the ball from his cruising ground in the middle of the field.  Hejduk and Padula will push up as usual depending upon which flank the Crew's attack is building.

This is not a complicated schema.  And it would do much to get the boys out of the rut they've fallen into, making them less predictable and more dangerous from the first minutes of the match rather than just the last 20 or so.  Hagalo C-Bus! 'till I die...

Crew vs Wizards Postgame Quickie

By MJD

• Lenhart's one tough mofo.
• The officiating blew.
• The Crew needs to quit trying to draw calls, it's stupid and puts too much of the outcome of the game in the hands of a bunch of tools posing as professional referees. 
• When we put in our attacking subs late we lose our midfield.
• There's no way we should lose to the likes of KC at home at this point in the season, Warzycha needs to get the boys' heads straight for bottom feeders like KC playing on the road after three straight losses.  
• We looked tired in the second half. Do we need a new fitness coach? Too much partying during the World Cup break? US Open Cup games taking their toll?
• Decent crowd for a mid-week game against the likes of KC. Buck a brat; dollar draft. 
• Renteria and Ekpo deserve more playing time, they have more technical prowess up front than Gaven or Rogers. It would require a different tactical approach, but RW's current starting formation, although not negative football, is too conservative. Put Renteria up top and give Ekpo a start in attacking mid.  We'd lose Rogers' speed, but tonight he didn't do dookie. We might lose something in the midfield, but if you're not going to open things up and attack at home when are you? How about Ekpo for Gaven and Renteria for Garey to start? You'd then have Rogers' speed on the left wing and Expo and Renteria and GBS' technical and creative abilities up front.
  
• Columbus 'till I die.

Manu Chao on Diego Maradona

Manu discusses the first time he met Maradona, why he is the greatest player ever, and the meaning behind the song "La Vida Tómbola" which was featured in the documentary film Maradona by Serbian filmmaker Emir Kusturica" 


"It is not easy being Diego Maradona."

World Cup Semifinals Handicapping: Party Like its 1974

By MJD

We don't see Germany trouncing yet another strong world football power, as Spain will match up against Der Mannschaft much better than did the tactic-less, unorganized Argentinians, but we still think the Germans will overpower the Spanish over 90 minutes.  The Germans' ability to patiently and effectively defend and then burst forward en masse with precision makes them a very tough opponent for the Red Fury.  Spain will dominate possession but will find few cracks in the German Wall--of course, if they defend well, they only need one crack, as David Villa continues to demonstrate with aplomb.  But physically the Spanish will have a hard time.  Look for Spain to earn many set-piece goal-scoring opportunities as Iniesta and Villa get pushed and shoved to the ground--oh, and the Spanish will certainly flop too if not dive outright.  Regardless, Spain will need a clean sheet or close to it if they hope to get through to the final.

The disgraceful way Uruguay made it past Ghana has been much-written about, and so we won't add our two pesos.  But the soccer-gods are very angry; and the Orange are now an instrument of divine retribution (in addition to being a very, very good side).  Netherlands 3 Uruguay 1.

World Cup Quarterfinals Handicapping: Favorites...or Germany

At this point in the world's greatest sporting event, there are no bargains to be had.  We look into the Luchametric crystal ball and see only favorites...except Germany...except the odds at this point are lame. If you can get odds at +350 or above on Deutschland, go for it.  Otherwise, even though we absolutely can see the organized, workaholic young Germans following Ozil all the way to the final and the world championship, the early odds don't make it a tantalizing punt.  In fact, the books have everything in their favor going into the tournament's final seven matches.

Can the Dutch beat Brazil in a one-off? Of course. Portugal showed that if you fall back and defend your half, Dunga and Co. run out of ideas and have to resort to the defenders making mistakes and/or their skill and athleticism coming through over 90 minutes.  Regardless, the rewards aren't worth the risk. Plus, Brazil at slightly better than one-to-one odds is always a good bet.

Neither Uruguay nor Ghana will be in the final.  But they could easily tie over 90 minutes.  If punt you must, then punt the draw on this one, or the under.  Ghana is young but athletic and fairly well organized; and Uruguay is organized and has some talent--but it's either Uruguay or the draw on this one.  Given how cautiously Uruguay has been willing to play, we like the draw.

Argentina is our favorite to win it all at this point, but the Germans are fully capable of a disciplined and systematic 2-0 win.  Their defense, combined with a deadly counter attack, are formidable.  Their absolute destruction of England showed that not only are they in the running this year, but that the German Youth are in line for the both the European championship in  2012 and the WC in 2014. Damn.  But La Albiceleste are in fine form and could give the German's fits.  Both teams will respect each other, and if you think either squad has fate on its side, go for it.  Team Nordecke Luchador feels this is Maradona's year to secure his place in football history in a way The Chosen One could only dream (Mourinho couldn't play for shite.)

Finally, the very early odds on Spain are irrelevant.  The Red Fury will dismantle Paraguay.  Spain versus Argentina will be epic.  The winner will face La Samba.  Wow.  An all-Latin final; possibly an all-South American final.  Imponente! Que barato! Hagalo mis hermanos! Hagalo!

El Clandestino, El Vision and El Escheleto Combine on the Attack to Help Make it 2-0 Columbus over DC United

Three New Characters made their way onto the Luchametric scene on this epic day that also saw the Crew predictably trounce DC United.

Clandestino represents the North Side. El Escheleto bares his bones. And El Vision is elusive and  effusive as always.

The Red White and Blue fell short this day, but the Black and Gold were never in doubt.

Hagalo Columbus! Do It!

MLS Power Rankings Updated: World Cup and MLS Handicapping

Certainly, all eyes are on tomorrow's match between the Yanks and Ghana, with the clash between England and Germany a close second.  But the MLS picks up again starting tonight, so we've updated the entire blog (while watching the highly disappointing match between Brazil and Portugal).

The MLS Power Rankings have LA and RSL at the top with the Crew, Colorado, Dallas and Toronto rounding out the top of our table.  The drop-off below Toronto is enough to suggest that the top six right now are the cream of the league.  It will be very interesting to see how the long lay off for the league affects play.  Teams will surely be rusty, and so matches could be sloppy and the results unpredictable.  To the right are some recommendations for punters.

This weekend's World Cup Matches will surely be outstanding football.  Our predictions are limited.  We certainly like Uruguay over South Korea, but the odds could be better.

Emotions are too high for the US match for El Chupa to be even remotely objective.  The odds and probabilities seem spot on, and with extra time and penalty kicks now in play, teams that are relatively equal could play cautiously late in the second half.  This perhaps makes fulltime draws more likely, including the US match.  But again, our hopes are too high and our hearts are full--so we demur.

The English psyche is fraught with memories of losing to Germany in PKs in big tournaments.  We think both teams are beatable, and given England's performance in group play give a slight nod to Germany, especially with Mesut Ozil up front, whom we quite like.  However, we can see both teams playing cautiously, especially in the second half.  If punt you must on this one, punt the draw.

Finally, perhaps the most anticipated match from a pure love of the beautiful game standpoint, we have Argentina v Mexico.  Argentina is heavily favored, and we give them the nod as our pick of the weekend's matches.  But we think the odds on Mexico are highly skewed, and if you're looking to slap down 10 bucks for the hell of it, you can't do any better this weekend than dropping the price of a few pints on Mexico, who have been playing well since the pre-WC friendlies.  We don't think a Mexican hat dance over Messi and Maradona Inc is probable, but it's certainly possible.  Arriba Mexico! Our brothers in the CONCACAF!

Luchametric World Cup Handicapping: Brazil to Samba Over Portugal

By MJD
Our predictions for today's matches are to your right.  Our predictions for tomorrow's matches are above.  We like Brazil for both its potential as a great match to watch and for its value.

First of all, in case you missed it, Portugal and Brazil have a rather long history, Brazil gaining its independence from Portugal in 1822 (but not from the Portuguese royal family) and then eventually becoming a republic in 1889.  Slavery was only abolished in Brazil in 1888, and there are still racial tensions in Brazilian society today, given its inherently mestizo social fabric (Portuguese/European; African; South American Indian).  As for Portugal, let's just say it has a certain attitude toward it's former colony, typical of former imperial states that have seen better days. Plus, um, Portugal has its own inherent racial attitudes typical of former imperial states that have seen better days.

Needless to say, these team will both want to beat each other....very, very badly.  It is essentially a World Cup Derby, which is one reason the books have given such good odds for Brazil.  Even without Kaka, the opportunity to bet on Brazil in a World Cup match with better-than-even odds is hard to pass up, and we think this match offers great value to punters, with the books undervaluing Brazil's superiority over Ronaldo and Co by as much as 7%.

Yes, a draw would send both teams through, but we just can't imagine either team playing for the draw from the start--too much history, too much pride, too much talent on the field.  And Portugal could be knocked out by a loss combined with a big Ivory Coast win. You think Brazil has any incentive to do just that?

In short, take Brazil and enjoy some outstanding football.  Do it.

As for Chile vs Spain, we think it's best to avoid this other post-colonial derby, as Chile is very tough and organized on defense and fully capable of stifling the Spanish.  Chile needs only a draw but a win sends them through, while Spain absolutely must win if they want to guarantee passage to the knock-out phase.  The likelihood of a Swiss win means their will be pressure on both teams and passions will run high.  Wouldn't Chile love to knock Spain out of the tournament?  And failing to advance to the final 16 would be a humiliation of epic proportions for the talented Spanish side.  We think Portugal is a paper tiger and Brazilian skill will prevail over 90 minutes, but this other match fraught by history is too close to call.

Luchametric World Cup Handicapping: Yanks and Argentina Best Bets

By MJD

Barely in time for today's early matches, we give you our updated WC 2010 suggestions.

There are no real value bets today or tomorrow.  But we think Argentina over Greece and tomorrow's Yanks vs Algeria offer the highest probabilities and the highest pay outs.

Notice we've added draws to the probabilities and we have added a column indicating what each team needs out of the match in order to advance (or in some cases, to have any chance at all to advance given other results).

Luchametric World Cup Handicapping: Our Upset? Paraguay Over the Azzurri

By MJD and El Luchador

All eyes at Nordecke Luchador are on Gooch's knee, Donovan's mental stability, and the back four (who would have thought at this point we'd be worry about our defense and not our strikers?).  But in fervid and besotted anticipation of South Africa 2010 we offer our meager advice for several opening matches at this year's world cup.

All US fans of the beautiful game look to Saturday's match against England with bowel-shaking anticipation.  We firmly believe the US is being given short shift in this match.  Best odds have the US at a mere 13% chance of a win. This is abject nonsense.  We set this match at a  solid 50% England win; 25% US win; 25% draw.  But, we advise American punters to keep their hands in their pockets.  A US win is just not a good bet--but we absolutely do not count our Yanks out.  Further, English confidence is misplaced.  They are overlooking a team filled with solid professional talent well-seasoned in Europe's top leagues.  And Buddle, Gomez, and Findlay have demonstrated that North American soccer can no longer be discounted out-of-hand

We like Paraguay over Italy as our upset.  We looked closely at Denmark over Holland and Uruguay over France, but we think that France's talent is being overlooked by a world press hungry for stories and that the Dutch without Robben are still one of the top five teams in the world. Still, we think these will be great matches to watch.

Finally, we can't help but conclude that the German machine will roll over the Aussies (Oi!) and that Argentina will win handily over Nigeria in spite of Maradona's abject freaking lunacy.  Lastly, we see Cameroon perhaps falling behind Japan early but coming back to win pulling away.

Luchametric MLS Weekend Fixtures Handicapping: Crew, Houston, RSL, and San Jose

By MJD

Nordecke Luchador has evolved over the last year into its own unique brand.  From the heady daze of Gonzo Crew fanaticism, we now offer EPL and MLS statistical analysis, EPL, MLS and World Cup handicapping as well as tactical insight into the beautiful game.


In the spirit of Kaizen, the Japanese virtue of "continuous improvement," we offer our latest data chart for our loyal readers.

To the left are this weekend's fixtures in the MLS.  For each match we provide the moneyline and the decimal odds.  Next, we provide our readers with how these odds translate into probabilities.  For example, in the first fixture, D.C. is being given +175 or a 36% chance at a home win;  Chivas is being given +192 or a 34% chance of an away win.   IMPORTANT! Punters should always remember that these percentages should be compared to the historical probabilities that 50% of all professional matches end in a home win; 25% in an away win; and 25% in a draw--unless there is a substantial difference in team strengths.

So, for this fixture, the books have lowered the chance of a D.C. home win by 14 percentage points and raised the chance of a Chivas road win by 9 percentage points.  The chance for a draw is thus around 30%.

But we go even further.  The fourth column tells the prospective punter the percentage payout of their wager.  Thus, a successful bet on D.C. will earn you 175% of your initial bet; a successful bet on Chivas will earn you 192%.  So a $10 bet on D.C. gets you 17.50. Nice.

But wait! We then provide you with our own analysis of the value of the wager.  As a general rule of thumb, smart punters should compare the probability offered by the books to their own estimation of the probability of bet being successful.  Continuing with our example, we need to ask ourselves the following: "Ok, all things being equal, the home team should win 50% of the time. However, D.C. is a weaker team than Chivas.  That means that the chance of D.C. winning is less than 50%. The books say that it's as bad as 36%.  Do I think its worse or better than 36%?"

Answer?  If you think there is a 5% or higher difference between the probability offered by the books and your own independent estimation of the probability of a team winning, then that bet is most likely what the professional punters call "a value bet."  Here's why.

If the books say D.C. has only a 36% chance of winning, but you think their chance is actually 41% or higher, then the amount of money the books are offering you is actually higher than it "should" be.  Remember, the higher the probability of a win, the lower the books pay out.

Further, a value bet is one where the amount of risk is "worth" the potential payout.  Bookies want to offer you less money for your risk than is "fair" or "real."  So, if you can find a match where you believe the books have it wrong and the actual probability of your team winning is higher than they've determined, then you've found a bet that will pay out more for your risk than the books would pay out if they had gotten the odds right in the first place.  In D.C.'s case, the books have set the odds at 36% and are offering you a payout of 175%.  If the books thought the probability was 41% or greater, they would pay winners less than 175%  As such, if you've decided that D.C. actually has a 41% chance or higher (let's face it, Chivas isn't very good) then taking D.C. to win at home would be a value bet. 

But what does Nordecke Luchador think about this match?

Our final column provides you with our advice for every match this weekend.  Our recommendations are based on A) our determination of the value of the odds being offered; and B) our usual statistical comparison of the two clubs including the Luchametric power rankings.  If we recommend a team, we think its a value bet with a high probability relative to the risk.  This week, we think C-Bus, Houston, RSL and San Jose all fit the bill.  And we think the D.C. v Chivas match should be avoided like the plague.

And remember, we don't recommend parlays ever.  Do your homework and pick your spots.  For example, Donovan is up with the USMNT.  We think that makes the Crew an even more valuable bet against LA than the numbers alone might suggest.  However, Houston is being given a 68% chance of a win, and we think it's definitely even higher. Indeed, this match probably represents the bet with the highest probability and the lowest risk of the weekend.  But the probability of both Houston and the Crew winning in a parlay is a rather low 30%.  If you bump the Crew's probability up to 51%, the parlay would still only be at 35%.  The probability of Houston, the Crew AND San Jose all winning? 17%.  RSL actually represents the wager with the highest value (in our view) as the payout is 69% on your wager (compared to 46% for Houston) and we think the probability of a RSL win could be as much as 10 percentage points higher than what the books have it at.  That's some sweet action.

Finally, it's important to note that we've excluded draws in our chart because draws never, ever offer high percentage probabilities nor value bets.  That's a maxim of betting on soccer we've learned from our secondary research (seriously).  And you can take that to the bank. C-Bus 'till I die!

Luchametric USMNT Tactical Analysis: What to Look for Against Turkey

By MJD
Alright, so now we know which Yanks will be heading to South Africa, but what should we expect to see tactically, hopefully starting Saturday against Turkey?

We've looked through the lineups at football-lineups.com for both the 2009 Confederations Cup and the 2010 World Cup Qualifiers, and what follows is our tentative projection of what to expect from Bradley in the two upcoming friendlies and against England on June 12th.  We went with the above two sets of matches as we think the Gold Cup in 2009 and the various friendlies over the last year don't accurately represent our best XI (in fact, we think our B-team was a grave disappointment in virtually every match it played).

The first graphic (above) is our prediction if Bradley runs out a standard 4-4-2.  In such games, he has historically put Dempsey and Donovan on the right and left flanks respectively.  Clark and Bradley are the two most common holding/defensive mids in Bradley's various lineups.  We think Altidore is a sure starter, and we're going with Gomez up front with him. Why? We think the combination of Altidore's physicality and ability to hold the ball combined with Gomez's speed and technique will give the US two very different looks at striker--which we dig like dirty rice. Note that Goodson could start for Onyewu and Bocanegra for Bornstein. In our review of Bradley's lineups, the back four were very frequently changed up and moved around. We don't think that will change.  If Gooch isn't ready by June 12th, you could very well see Bornstein, Bocanegra, DeMerit and Spector filling out the back four.

Next, Bradley has also used a rather uncommon 4-2-2-2.  In the graphic to the right, you'll see that in this schema, Bradley and Clark drop back in front of the back four, and Donovan and Dempsey switch sides.  Donovan played mostly on the left with Everton this winter and spring, and this may affect Bradley's tactical decisions.  Regardless, we've still got Gomez and Altidore up top.  At Puebla, Gomez was typically the lone striker, and for the US Altidore has played on the both the right and the left, so it will be interesting to see how Bradley decides to use the two forwards (if he goes with Gomez and not Buddle or Findlay).

Finally, we came up with our own lineup, featuring the return of the prodigal son, DaMarcus Beasley.  He's been in our doghouse since the last World Cup, and he's been in Bradley's for about a year, but he looked very, very good against the Czechs.  The last graphic is our hypothetical XI with Beasley in the mix--in this case, a 4-4-1-1.

In this formation, we put Beasley on the right wing, moving Dempsey over next to Donovan with Clark as the sole defensive mid.  Up top we push Altidore ahead of Gomez, allowing Gomez space to create.  We think this is a great attacking formation for the Yanks.  We look forward to seeing what Bradley's actually going to do with Beasley.  For example, Bease could replace Clark or Bradley in the 4-4-2 or the 4-2-2-2.  Also, we haven't even considered the option of pushing Dempsey or Donovan up top as one or both strikers, which would give the US another and very different look.

Needless to say, it's nice to see that the US has some very tantalizing options.  Word.

MLS Power Rankings Updated: The Big Two

By MJD

I've been out of the office for the last week but have finally had a chance to catch up on things in the MLS. We suggested in an earlier post that MLS parity might be a thing of the past, and the updated numbers continue to support that claim.

Both LA and the Crew enjoy a substantial advantage in the LM and especially in their respective Z-scores relative to the rest of the league.  Note also that there seems to be a large number of middling teams and three to five absolute bottom feeders.  Here's how we'd divide up the league:

The Big Two: LA and C-Bus
The Great Pretenders: RSL, SJO.
The Mighty Middle: Dallas, Colorado, Houston, Chicago, Toronto, New York, Seattle, Chivas, KC
The Vanquished if Not Relegated: Philly and D.C.

You can slice and dice it however you'd like, but there clearly has been a shift in the relative strengths of the different clubs.  Finally, the West continues to dominate the rankings and the single table.  Six out of the eight top teams in the LM are from the West; as are five out of the top eight in the single table.  Again, it ain't about the two conferences, which are a joke, it just adds to the overall impression that the era of parity in MLS is over.

Crew vs Chivas USA Statistical Breakdown

By MJD

Yesterday we gave you a breakdown of the Crew's tactics, today we give you a quick statistical comparison of the two clubs.

This game is not a sure 3 PTS for C-Bus, but it is 3 PTS the Crew certainly should earn.   Last year Chivas USA had only 6 draws, lowest among the 8 playoff teams.  This year they have 3 wins and 4 losses  and only 1 draw.  But they've scored 5 goals at home and 5 goals on the road.  In short, Chivas is a club that so far has been inconsistent--but they are dangerous depending on which club shows up for that particular match.

Notice that Chivas allows fewer SHTAs and SOGAs per game than does the Crew. As we said earlier in the season, the Crew's defense gives us cause for concern, and last week did nothing to alleviate those anxieties. However, the rest of the numbers tell us that the Crew enjoy a substantial advantage including GF/GM, GA/GM and PTS/GM. Most importantly, in the LM Power Rankings, the Crew enjoys a considerable advantage of over 1.5 STDDEVs.

Here's hoping that Hesmer has his head screwed on straight, that the Crew's attack gets more efficient (several players last week failed to finish exceptionally good chances) and that during the defensive phase the Crew begins to show signs of being able to completely shut down lesser teams . Columbus 'til I die.

Crew Tactical Breakdown: What to Look for Against Chivas

By MJD

The Crew will most likely line  up in their standard 4-4-1-1 on Saturday night, with Rogers and Gaven on the wings, and Padula and Hejduk as the outside backs.  Iro, Marshall or O'Rourke will start as one of the center backs opposite Brunner.  And look for Carroll and Moffatt to play as the holding center-mids.

In this formation, GBS plays rather high, which has been the subject of some discussion in the Crew blogosphere.  The argument is that Guillermo is better utilized as a more traditional number 10, roaming the center which allows him to create more.  In such a formation, the Crew would most likely go to a 4-3-3 or a 4-4-2-- in the latter they'd need to go with two forwards or a forward and striker combo: Lenhart and Ekpo, for example, or Lenhart and Gaven, or Lenhart and Garey.

However, as the next graphic shows, even in RW's present schema, Schelotto is still being used as a creator.  Most importantly, the Crew's attack is a little more complicated and (we think) more dynamic and thus more difficult to defend.

In the graphic to the right, you see the Crew in the attack phase. The graphic represents what the club was trying to do last Saturday against New England and can be considered RW's basic approach on attack, at least with these players.

Notice that in this particular version of the Crew's 4-4-1-1, either Padula or Hejduk pushes up, in this case we'll push up Padula.  But the left back is not merely crashing down the wing.  Rather, in this scenario, the Crew is really playing a 3-2-3-2 or some might call it a 3-2-4-1. Regardless, the system is designed to get the left or right back to work with the holding mids, the wing AND the number 10, creating multiple passing possibilities and thus maintaining possession.  All the while, they are building up the attack gradually, looking to get Rogers and Lenhart to angle in on the box and finish, with both Padula and Schelotto providing service.

As you can see, the interaction among the back, the mids, the "10" and the wing creates multiple and dynamic passing combinations, and can easily be shifted to the opposite wing with the right back (Hejduk) moving forward instead of the left.

Note also how this approach allows the team to get 5 players forward and that GBS is still in a central position.  Further, if a run takes Rogers over to the right, Gaven and GBS can rotate left.  Finally, Carroll and Moffatt are in a position to both support the attack and to drop back in front of the back three if the Crew lose possession.

Three things to take away from last week's game in light of the above analysis.

First, the striker absolutely must finish efficiently for the formation to produce goals.  Lenhart did not do so last week in spite of some excellent service from both GBS and the wings.  Overall, Lenhart has converted 40% of his SHTS to SOGs, but has scored only 1 goal in 4 SOG total or 25%.  That's average for the league overall and below average for forwards.  Perhaps last week was on off night.  But maybe RW should start Ekpo up top instead of the big blond..

Second, the Crew looked vulnerable on the counter-attack last week, and so the two central mids have to be fast enough to respond quickly when the team is forced to defend.

Finally, this approach leaves the Crew with only a three-man back line.  If the team can delay up high and thus allow players to get back and defend as a unit, this is not so dangerous.  But make no mistake, this is an attacking formation that relies on possession and a quick retreat by the mids and the attacking back(s)  to insure the opposing team doesn't overwhelm the three defenders.

Chivas has played a 4-2-3-1 its last two matches, and RWs back line will need to be sharp, even at home, if the Crew hopes to avoid another see-saw match against a lesser club. It will be interesting to see if the combination of Chivas' two mids in the 4-2-3-1 and the Crew's attacking 3-2-3-2 creates space in the middle of the field and thus a lot of movement and wide open play.

Our prediction? Look for the Crew to continue to gel as they get more games under their belt and for Chivas to give up 2 goals at least.  Note that historically Chivas does not draw very often.  Final score 2-0 Crew.  Massive. Hagado C-Bus.

MLS Power Rankings Updated: Go West My Tan-Faced Children

By MJD
We loathe the International House of Soccer's insistence on the two divisions as it distorts the league standings and has virtually no impact whatsoever on who gets into the playoffs.  And although relegation is a long way off (if it ever happens in our lifetime--hopefully another 40 years or so), we hope the league will go to a single table much sooner.  But this post isn't really about any of that.  It's about MLS on television and the land of great Mexican food, medical marijuana, and the EPL "late" game with breakfast.

Take a look at our Power Rankings and the Single Table and you'll notice that the western teams currently dominate the league.  In the Power Rankings, 5 of the top 8 teams are out of the West; and in the single table 6 out of the top 8 teams play their home games west of the Mississippi.  Again, we have disdain for MLS' marketing strategy, but we think it's worth noticing that the best football in the league is currently being played far away from the Northeast corridor.  Other than the Red Bulls, the top teams in the "East" are actually in the Midwest.  And the majority of top teams in the league are either in the same time zone as Chicago or even further away from the nation's most densely populated region. Of course, the big standout exception is our beloved Crew who continue to contend for a third-straight Supporters Shield, which would do more than anything to demonstrate the invalidity of the two-division playoff scheme. (That's a post for another day).

MLS' business model is designed to insure big market teams like DC, NY, New England (Boston), Philly and Toronto can carry the load when it comes to television market share.  Let's face it, the Crew vs. New England on a Saturday night is one thing; the Crew vs. KC is something else.  The former includes greater Boston as one half of its potential audience, which is the nation's 7th largest television market; the latter includes the nation's 34th and 32nd largest markets respectively (who knew KC was bigger than C-Bus?).

All of this is simply to say that you can bet the suits at the IHOS are sweating a bit as the season unfolds.  Philly looks like they genuinely stink.  DC is drawing fewer of its rabid white-collar suburbanites out for a night of pseudo-hooliganism than their reputation would predict, and NE looks like its headed for yet another season of marginality.

As such, you might think we'd see more games on FSC from the major markets in the West this year than we would in the East.  Unfortunately, it's more likely Don Garber and the Sports Admin majors in the league offices will decide that mediocre football that caters to the fans in the Northeast corridor is a potentially more profitable product than great football that caters to the fan of the beautiful game.

Which brings us once more to the patron saint of American soccer: Papa Walt: 

Come my tan-faced children,

Follow well in order, get your weapons ready, Have you your pistols? have you your sharp-edged axes? Pioneers! O pioneers!

For we cannot tarry here, We must march my darlings, we must bear the brunt of danger, We the youthful sinewy races, all the rest on us depend, Pioneers! O pioneers!

O you youths, Western youths, So impatient, full of action, full of manly pride and friendship, Plain I see you Western youths, see you tramping with the foremost, Pioneers! O pioneers!

Luchametric Power Rankings Updated: The MLS Big Three and the End of Parity

By MJD

It's early, it's early, um, AND it's still early. But the latest update of the Luchametric tells us that LA, the Crew, and the revived Red Bulls sit atop the league and have opened a substantial gap between the top three and the rest of the league.

The top three are all within .65 of a STD DEV of each other in the Z-Score and are all above 1500 in the actual LM score.  The rest of the league is below 1500, with Chicago closest at 1199, and only the top three are over 1.00 STD DEVs above the league average.

One thing we like about the LM is that it takes into account the different factors which distort the league point standings (most importantly, Games Played) and provides a single score that allows for a comparison of all the teams in the league that is more representative of a team's success than mere points or even Points per Game can provide.

We'd also point out that Chicago and San Jose have moved up in the rankings and should be treated with seriousness by team managers and punters alike.

Finally, the bottom three (Toronto, Philly, and DC) remain at the bottom and still are playing substantially poorer than the rest of the league.  There is much parity in the middle, but at this early stage, there is less parity across the entire league than we've seen in recent years.

Crew Shots Against Grid Updated

By MJD
We've updated our chart tracking the Crew's SHTA and SOGA. The boys are still giving up more SHTA and SOGA than the league average (13.25 vs 10.77 and 4.5 vs 4.37 respectively), and their actual GA compared to their Expected Goals Against remains good (3 GA vs 5 EGA).  But as the chart indicates, they're still allowing opponents to create quality chances against them--look at all those chances right inside the box--14 total right in front of the net.

The question, then, is two-fold, is the Crew's strategy to bend and not break and then counter-attack?  Or does the team need to address its defensive issues quickly, as they cannot hope to continue to allow this many chances per game over the course of the remainder of the season and not start giving up goals?  What if Hesmer goes down and his form drops a few notches?  Our hunch right now is that RW needs to look hard at his back line.  One solution would be to hold Hejduk back, for example, at least from run after deep run up the wing.  A few judicious runs forward? Fine.  But using him as a real attacking back?  I don't know.

Finally, we've updated the power rankings and made them simpler.
The LM is now a single score normed so that the worst team in the league is now a zero.  We hope it makes more sense.  And in spite of our misgivings about the Crew, they are still second in our rankings, which is a measure of production per game, not simply overall production.  As such, they are still right up there at the top of the league.