EPL Handicapping: Liverpool at Chelsea - Thunder of the Gods

By El Chupacabra
Here's our take on the the premier fixture in the Premier League this weekend.

Liverpool at Chelsea
The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that these two teams are virtually the same. A mere .04 of a Standard Deviation separates them, which is like saying that the difference is within the margin of error--well within it. The other numbers tell us that Benitez is a dickhead. It's hard to be objective on this one after what the Scouser fans did to our beloved World Soccer Daily.

The hard numbers tell us that Liverpool scores more goals but also gives up more. Chelsea scores fewer goals but gives up fewer goals, fewer shots, basically fewer everything when it comes to opportunities created against. These teams don't like each other, and when they meet it has all the markings of a classic "derby," and Benitez is a dickhead. Wait, I mean to say that both teams are highly motivated. They have a long history of beating each other in key games and key competitions, and both will be up for the match. Chelsea was beaten last year at home by the Scousers, and they lost last week at Wigan. Liverpool lost on Tuesday at Fiorentina and looked like hell on defense. Plus, every game between top teams is huge as dropping three points to your closest competitors means you have to make them up at some point, and you've just dropped points to a team whose rate of earning PTS/GM is the same as yours making it difficult to overtake them, especially as the season progresses because you have fewer games left by which to acquire points.

Finally, Chelsea's schedule has not been very tough, and they haven't been winning by large margins. This will be the first time they've played a world class offensive side that is clearly hitting it on all cylinders. It comes down to whether Chelsea can stifle Liverpool's attack AND take advantage of the opportunities Liverpool will give up. We think Liverpool's committment to attack explains why they've given up more goals than the Blues, but we also think that their defense is suspect. But that doesn't mean that Chelsea will have many scoring chances, as they certainly haven't lit it up against much lesser teams.

Our prediction: Draw 1-1

MONEY LINE Liverpool +215 TIE +210 Chelsea Even

LUCHAMETRIC Draw. Diff is .04 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Chelsea: Both teams traveled to Europe midweek for UEFA matches. But Liverpool are traveling down to London. Slight nod to Chelsea here.

INSPIRATION Draw. Chelsea are looking to avenge last year's loss at home to the Scousers. Plus, they lost last week to Wigan and need to reassert their early season form in the EPL. Benitez is a dickhead. Both teams dislike each other, and the Scousers would like nothing better than to stick it to one of their biggest rivals on their home turf. Finally, the Scousers were humiliated on Tuesday, Benitez ripped them a new one, and they'll be looking to convince him and their fans that they're better than they looked on Tuesday.

INJURIES Advantage Liverpool: Chelsea is without Cech, and Ballack is doubtful. But, the Chelsea website is reporting he will be back. Liverpool will be without only Dosenna and Aquilani.

HISTORY Advantage Liverpool: All time results in all competitions: Liverpool 69 Draw 33 Chelsea 54.

RECENT FORM Advantage Liverpool: Scousers WLWWWW Chelsea WWWWWL

EPL Handicapping: Wigan at Hull

By El Chupacabra

A lot of games this weekend in the EPL, including matches Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Here's our best pick for Saturday's fixtures.

Take Wigan to Win at Hull
The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that Wigan are the better side, with a higher production score that amounts to a difference in standard deviation of .75. This puts the two teams rather close, especially with Hull's home advantage. However, Wigan have an advantage in Shots, Shots on Goal, Goals Against, Shots on Goals Against, and Goal Differential, suggesting they'll get more opportunities to score. Hull is giving up 2.71 Goals per Game, which is close to the league average for TOTAL goals scored by each team per game. Of course, 6 of those goals were scored by Liverpool in a single match. Regardless, we don't expect Hull to threaten much, and Wigan scored 3 goals last week on Chelsea. Both teams will contest this one fiercely, as both could use three points -- Wigan to regain the form they showed last year and to prove that last week's defeat of Chelsea was no fluke, and Hull to keep from losing four in a row, which would have them staring relegation in the face after only 8 games. Oh, and Phil "The Douche" Brown's job is on the line. This could mean the players play hard to save his job. . . or it COULD meand that they phone it in so he gets fired and upper management can get someone to replace him that the players actually like, respect and for whom they will perform better.

MONEY LINE
Wigan +150 TIE +210 Hull +150

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage Wigan: Wigan .16; Hull -3.06 or .75 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Draw: Both teams have had a week off, and Wigan are only traveling about 125 miles.

INSPIRATION Advantage Wigan: Both teams have something to play for, but Hull are downright dysfunctional. Wigan want to regain the form that last year had them threatening to place in the top 7. They also need to prove they can win away from home and that the wins against Villa and Chelsea were legit. Hull is staring relegation in the face and needs to turn things around toot sweet. But here's the difference: Hull's dressing room has never recovered from last year's mid year antics by Manager Phil Brown. And the Scotsman this week admitted that he does not have the complete confidence of his men, calling on some to exhibit more "bravery."

INJURIES Advantage Wigan: Wigan are fully fit; Hull have some minor injury problems.

HISTORY Advantage Wigan: All time results in all competitions: Wigan 7 Draw 6 Hull 4

RECENT FORM Advantage Wigan: Wigan LLLWLW (6 points out of 6) Hull LWDLLL (4 points out of 6)

MLS Handicapping: Colorado Rapids to Win Over New England Revolution at -125. Do It.

By El Luchador
The Masked One’s featured MLS Wager of the Week is Colorado Rapids to win at home over New England Revolution. The Luchametric’s hard numbers tell us that COL are the better team with higher production over the season and per game. The patented 6-Point Qualitative Luchametric gives COL the advantage in 5 categories (Travel, History, Environment, Injuries and Recent Form) with the 6^th (Inspiration) a draw. On top of it all, COL are seriously due for a win having drawn their last three games, two of them on BS late penalty kicks and one last week’s 0-0 stinker. Take COL to win this one hands down. Do it.

MONEY LINE
COL -125 TIE +250 NE + 265

LUCHAMETRIC Advantage COL 1.89 NE .15 or .75 Standard Deviations

RECENT TRAVEL Advantage COL - COL traveled 1,200 miles round trip to KC Saturday but have been back home since Monday and were on a 2-game home stand before the KC trip. NE have traveled more than 2,100 miles in two legs flying to DAL last week before heading to COL for this match.

INSPIRATION Draw - Both teams have something to play for. This is COL’s final game of the season at Dick's Sporting Goods Park and they hope to maintain their 2-point margin in the wild card. NE are playing the second game in a two-game road swing, falling 1-0 to FC Dallas on Wednesday, though they still hold eighth place in the MLS overall table and the last spot in the MLS Cup Playoffs.

HISTORY Advantage COL - At COL (16 meetings): Rapids 11 wins (1 shootout), 30 goals ... Revolution 3 wins (0 shootout), 13 goals, Ties 2

ENVIRONMENT Advantage COL - Dick’s Sporting Goods Park is at roughly 5,100 ft above sea level. New England are flying in from spending the week at about 400 feet in Dallas and are acclimated to Gillette Stadium’s 84 feet.

INJURIES Advantage COL - COL - OUT: MF Colin Clark; MF Jacob Peterson; MF Jamie Smith; DOUBTFUL: GK Matt Pickens (R knee sprain); QUESTIONABLE: DF Cory Gibbs (R thigh strain) ... NE - OUT: DF Chris Albright; FW Edgarus Jankauskas; MF Steve Ralston; FW Taylor Twellman; QUESTIONABLE: DF Gabriel Badilla; MF Sainey Nyassi; PROBABLE: GK Brad Knighton

RECENT FORM Advantage COL - COL – WLTTT, NE – LLTWL

MLS Preview and Handicapping: New England at FC Dallas

By El Chupa

We hesitate to post lest we distract our readers from the crisis surrounding Nordecke outlined by El Luchador below. But duty calls.

Take Dallas at +110. New England is making a run at the end of the season but Dallas is tough at home and NE is hurt...bad. Dallas is also scoring like crazy. They are very close in the Luchametric and Dallas at home in need of three points to keep their play-off hopes alive is good bet.

Go Ahead and Hate Your Neighbor

By El Luchador
Near the end of Billy Jack, as he is holed up against the authorities and the Man is closing in, Billy asks: “In what remote corner of this country – no, entire God damn planet – is there a place where people really care about one another and really love each other? Now, you tell me were such a place is, and I promise you that I'll never hurt another human being as long as I live.”

El Luchador knows of such a place. It is called the Nordecke. It is on the northeast corner of Crew Stadium. And just as Billy Jack’s commitment to pacifism often was challenged, so too does El Luchador find himself wanting to go berserk when he sees what Crew General Manager Mark McCullers is determined to do to the beloved Nordecke.

Wednesday’s disappointing CONCACAF match against Saprissa was noteworthy for more than just the fact that the referee was clearly intent on influencing the outcome.

Look at the video accompanying this article.

Crew General Manager Mark McCullers’ jack-booted thugs were gathered two and three abreast at each entrance to the supporters’ sections. El Luchador was barred entrance more than once because he did not hold a ticket to that section. Meanwhile, one could sit anywhere else in the stadium with no problem.

And look at the crowd barriers on the railings of the Nordecke. This is unprecedented. Several security guards interviewed for this article were afraid to go on camera because Crew General Manager Mark McCullers would fire them if he found out that they had spoken the Truth. They said they were under strict orders not to let anyone into the Nordecke who did not have a ticket for that section. They said the barriers will be a new feature at Crew Stadium to keep people from the rails of the Nordecke and the Nordecke alone.

One of the beautiful things about a night at Crew Stadium has always been the experience of wandering the terraces and watching the match from the rails above the Nordecke. Now we can’t even do that because of Mark McCullers’ obsessive need to control? His obsessive Red State compulsion to tell us how to live our lives? The unresolved control issues with his overbearing father? His sense of sexual inadequacy? His fear of abandonment?

Billy Jack fought to protect the kids at the Freedom School from the redneck townspeople.

El Luchador stands ready to defend his pacifist brothers and sisters of Nordecke against the totalitarian tyranny of Crew General Manager Mark McCullers.

I leave you with this simple question: What self-respecting football club on the planet literally erects barriers to keep their own fans out of the supporters' section and prevent them from even standing on the terrace? Keeping out Toronto's knuckledraggin, mouth-breathing cave men? Ok, but the Crew faithful?

Sung to the tune of "O My Darling Clementine"

Who's your father? Who's your father? Who's your father, Mark M'Cullers?

You don't know him, never had one, you're a bastard Mark M'Cullers.

UEFA Champions League Handicaping: Wednesday's Tips and Previews

By El Chupa

Wednesday's matches offer a bit more for both the fan and the wagerer than today's matches. Here's our skinny:

Zurich at AC Milan - This should prove to be an entertaining match, although the odds don't really make it a promising match to throw some money on. The nod here goes to Milan playing at home, but Zurich will play them tough. Gamblers looking to get lucky might go for the draw here, as a Zurich win is unlikely, and the odds for Milan not worth the risk.

Juventus at Bayern Munchen - This should prove to be another great match for the fan. And for the wagerer this may be the best match of the day. Juventus has the edge in our view in terms of being the better side and are being given +230, which is seductive to say the least. But Bayern is 3 and 2 in its last 5 matches and they're playing at home. After last year's debacle in the knock-out stage, which resulted in Klinsman's exit as coach, you can be sure Bayern is looking to do better, which means they need to get out of the group stage. They are currently in 7th in the Bundesliga behind Wolfsburg. We think the draw here is the best bet. Juventus will be happy to come away with one point.

ATL Madrid at Porto - This should be yet another entertaining match. But punters should stay away. It could go either way very easily, in our view.

Marseille at Real Madrid - Real is the team to beat this year in the Champions League, along with Barca and Chelsea. We already have the Barca v. Real Madrid match on our calendar as a good day to call in sick and quaff some home brew. Take Real as one half of a parlay. It's as good as in the bank.

Wolfsburg at Man U - This could be an entertaining match, but as we said yesterday, we look for Man U to break through and dominate in the second half, especially at home against a Wolfsburg side struggling to match last year's form. Take Man U as part of a two game parlay with Real Madrid and enjoy a truly outstanding day of European football. We hope you have your DVR ready.

UEFA Champions League Handicapping: Tips and Previews

By El Chupa

We love the Champions League, especially once it gets to the knock-out rounds. Tuesday's matches, however, don't offer any obvious sweet action, nor really any eye-popping matchups for fans of the beautiful game. Here are a few suggestions for those looking for some early and mid-week wagers.

Inter at Rubin Kazan - At -153, Inter is probably a value bet here, as we think the books have it wrong. This will be either a tough away draw, which Inter would be happy with, or Inter will win. Period. Go with Inter as one half of a parlay or put up money for nearly a 70% return.

Dynamo Kiev at Barca - This is a mismatch. Barca is in excellent form and Ibrahimavic is settling in. Give me a break. Barca will dominate if not crush Kiev at Camp Nou. But good luck making any money off this one. Barca was at -800 last we looked.

Sevilla at Rangers - We have a soft spot in our hearts for Rangers, and they surprised us by drawing with Stuttgart. And at home at +285 it's tempting to take them for the win (cue Bill Murray). But. . . . we think their Cinderella run in Europe will end with group play. Sevilla at -111 is probably a decent, high percentage wager. But if you want to bet your heart and root for the home team, this offers some good, clean fun.

Beyond the above offerings, this week's games don't look especially enticing. The best match will undoubtedly be Wolfsburg at Man U. But we think, alas, the press has their heads up their collective asses if they think Wolfsburg, sixth place in the Bundesliga currently and not up to last year's form, is going to go into Old Trafford and make a game of it, let alone threaten to come away with one let alone three pts. Look for Man U to dominate in the second half and win pulling away.

MLS Power Rankings: Crew Sees Daylight

By El Chupa
El Luchador's MLS Power Rankings have been fully updated, and the Crew now enjoys over one-half of a StandDev over it's nearest rival, Chicago. LA has dropped to third followed by Seattle and Houston who are neck and neck for fourth.

The Crew's important victory over the Galaxy is significant, especially in light of the rest of the games this weekend, in that the boys in Black and Gold are clearly the premier team in the league. COL is beat up and can't win at home or on the road against a lesser opponent. DC is simply toothless. CHI can't protect it's home turf and is as inconsistent as is the rest of the league--that is, except the Crew. Only the Crew win when they are supposed to win and draw when they play a tough team on the road (CHI). The Crew have only one loss in their last 10 games. No on else in the league can say as much. The loss to NY now looks like a little bump on the road. In short, only the Crew has been consistent, and only the Crew consistently shows up and gets it done.

The win against LA is also significant in that the boys beat the Galaxy without even running out its best 11. This speaks to their depth and the genius of Sigi Schmid. He is keeping the team rested but getting as much out of them as is needed. We look forward to the playoffs.

EPL Power Rankings Updated: Luchametric 3.0

By El Chupa
The Luchametric EPL Power Rankings have been fully updated through Sunday's match between Sunderland and Wolves. We've simplified the chart to make it easier for our loyal readers. The chart now provides the Luchametric score, the number of Standard Deviations above or below the mean (Z Score) of the club's Luchametric score, and finally, the actual number of points the club has earned thus far to allow for comparisons.

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are now making the Luchametric data available to our readers as an Excel spreadsheet. Look at the top of column two to the right to find the link. The MLS data will be available later today.

No real changes this week, except that Man U is gaining on Chelsea, and there is now little daylight separating the two clubs. Also, Spurs are lower than both Man City and Arsenal, in spite of being ahead in the actual standings. We stand by our rankings.

Finally, we have some bad news for Burnley fans, something we've observed for the last few weeks but have held back commenting on. In spite of their nine points, Burnely lag far behind the rest of the league in the Luchametric's overall measure of production. In our view, Burnley actually are in grave danger of being relegated. We don't see them earning many points the rest of the year given the overall numbers unless things start to pick up for them and toot sweet. They are far below the league averages for Shots, Shots on Goal, and Goals Scored. You heard it here first.

MLS Handicapping: Preview and Betting Tips for This Weekend's Fixtures

By El Chupa
Overall, we're not too excited about this weekend's matches from a wagering standpoint. But we offer these humble suggestions.

LA at Crew - We think this is a likely draw. A VERY likely draw. And at +215, a very good wager. But we love the Crew too much not to hope for a win. Betting our mind and not our heart is not in our makeup, however. Look for El Luchador to put it all on the line in this one.

Seattle at New England - We like NE here, at home, fighting for a playoff spot. At +105 it's a decent wager. As far as we're concerned, both teams have been inconsistent and are part of the parity problem in MLS. This is also one worth avoiding as it could be low scoring and all it will take is an odd bounce or call to decide the match. But if we had to choose, we'd choose NE.

COL at KC - At +210 and a full STDEV above KC in the Luchametric, we very much like COL here. They need three points and have already beaten KC this year. We don't expect a lot of goals out of either team, however. Check COL's roster to see who's in and who's out. COL was all over SJO on Wednesday and were screwed by yet another bad call. Imagine that! Crappy officiating in the MLS. What a surprise. Update: COL is beat up pretty badly. This one is now too close to call.

RSL at DAL - We like DAL at even odds here. They are tough at home and teams wilt in the heat. For those of you in the North or Northwest of the country, take it from someone who lives on the GA/FL border. It's still hot as F down here.

Pick of the Week - COL to win at KC

EPL Handicapping: Betting Advice on this Week's Fixtures

By El Chupa
It's probably worth pointing out at this point that El Chupa and El Luchador have slightly different betting strategies.

El Luchador likes to go for the big fish. He trolls the deep water for the big catches, i.e., low percentage wagers with high payouts. His balls are large.

El Chupa lacks the intestinal fortitude of his mentor and instead looks for high percentage wagers that pay less-than-even odds. This can still be a substantial percentage of the original wager (50-90%) but certainly not double the money or better. Slow and steady is his motto.

This tends to result in El Luchador going for parlays that will pay big when they come in, while El Chupa looks for parlays that are virtually sure things (if there is such a thing) but offer less of a reward. It also means El Chupa is VERY judicious about the straight bets he makes. El Luchador? Not so much. . .

This also means that El Chupa often uses his statistical acumen, such as it is, to identify matches one should AVOID, as well as matches that look like high percentage wagers. When he can find a match he think is both a solid wager AND +100 or better odds, he is VERY happy.

So, on to this week's picks.

Everton at Portsmouth - This one is intriguing as Everton is being given only -115, practically begging you to put $15 on what looks like a mismatch. We don't like Everton's defense at all, they're giving up too many goals. And they haven't earned a single point away from home. But Portsmouth looks so freaking helpless that it's hard to predict when they will break out of their funk. It certainly will be at home, right? But against Everton? We think not. This match could also make one game of a parlay, as the -115 will help boost your payout if you pick a DEFINITE mismatch like Burnley at Spurs, which we think will result in Spurs demolishing the visiting side. Currently, our book is paying +140 on a two-game parlay of Everton and Spurs.

Aston Villa at Blackburn - This match is intriguing as we have Villa rated very high in the power rankings, and the +120 odds are attractive. However, our data also tells us that Blackburn doesn't give up shots, doesn't give up shots on goal, and doesn't give up corners. They are right at the league average for GA with 8. So Villa has their work cut out for them. El Chupa will be very tempted to look at this one closely and take a straight bet on one of these two teams.

Arsenal at Fulham - It's tempting to think Fulham will play Arsenal tough at Craven Cottage (coolest freaking name ever), but we think Arsenal will overpower the homeside and quite possibly when by a two-goal margin. We've been unimpressed with Fulham so far, and think that they look like goals will be hard to come by. They only have 16 SOG all season and only Burnley is worse with 13 (the league average is 27). The over is not paying well, and we can't see Fulham winning a goal-fest. This would be a good match for a parlay.

Upset of the week: Man U at Stoke - Do we think Stoke will beat Man U? No. But at +675, wtf? Put up $5. Man U is going to give up goals this year, and they will lose one or two more matches to the likes of Burnley. So, trust your gut, or not, whatever. Fuck Man U.

LA at Columbus Preview: Offensive Statistical Insights

By El Chupa
First off, I know you can't see the data given the technical limitations of free blogging, but if you click on the image at the left you'll be able to see a much larger version of it. Here's the skinny.

The chart gives us a break down of each team's leading offensive players. And as we've explained elsewhere, Pro and Pro/GM are Luchametric numbers that allow us to compare the overall offensive contributions or production of individual players. As you can see, Garey leads both teams with 4.05/GM, followed by Beckham, Schelotto, Buddle, Donovan and Lenhart. In Overall Production for the season, Schelotto is on top followed by Donovan, and both are light-years ahead of the rest of the players on both teams. This is not only a reflection of their individual ability, but also their role on their respective teams (the fact that their job is to score and create scoring chances for others so they will naturally have higher numbers than, say, the goalkeeper). Notice also that Schelotto leads both teams when it comes to how many minutes it takes him before he produces either a Goal or an Assist with 105. Garey is second at 110.5 followed by Donovan (115.31) and then Beckham (124.6).

And as we've discussed elsewhere, we think one of the leading indicators of the quality of a scorer is the percentage of Shots on Goal that player turns into actual goals, as a scorer's merit is determined not simply by how many opportunities he either creates on his own or are given to him by his teammates, but the rate at which he actually converts those opportunities into goals. And in this category, Schelotto is the winner, as over one-half of his SOGs turn in to actual goals. Give him an inch, he'll take a freaking mile. Donovan is second at .40.

The numbers tell us what most of us already know: these teams match up extremely closely offensively. Both Beckham and Garey lead their respective teams in Pro/GM but both have played only just over 600 minutes. This suggests that given more playing time, their numbers would drop back down a bit closer to the standard set by Schelotto and Donovan, if not lower. But clearly each team can get goals out of a number of different players and from a number of positions on the field.

One thing we like about the Crew, however, is that they have more players with over two goals each. This confirms what we've already known for a while: that the Crew is very balanced and deep when it comes to putting players on the pitch who can pressure the other team and get the ball in the back of the net (case in point: Lenhart coming off the bench). In a tight game, especially late in the game, this gives the Crew a definite advantage over the rest of the league and over LA, especially at home. It also speaks well for the team's prospects in the playoffs.

MLS Handicapping: San Jose at Colorado (Updated)

By El Chupa

Well, we blew it again. And lost money to boot. SJO obviously has COL's number and has gotten so deep in their heads that COL can't even manage a win at home. Beyond the obvious bad voodoo however, it's clear that COL has problems scoring, and that all it takes is a bad call here, a fluke hand-ball there, and you end up with a mere four goals from four PKs across two games and a mere two points earned per team. Even if COL makes the playoffs, we don't expect them to figure much in the road to the championship. And that's not sour grapes, we bear no ill-will to the Rapids. We just don't see how they'll get very far in the MLS's second season when they have to grind out wins even when they're home. Defense keeps you in games, but eventually you have to start scoring more goals then your opponents.

This is coming a bit late in the day and will be short and sweet. Take Colorado at -118 if you don't mind risking a bit for what we think is a high percentage wager (El Chupa hopes to make 50% tonight). Colorado is tough as hell at home. They don't allow goals, they don't even allow shots on goal, a category in which they lead the league with a shockingly low 81, WELL below the league average. The difference in the Luchametric is high and Colorado needs 3 pts to stay in the playoff picture. We thus think it's high time for COL to break through against San Jose and that they will. Pickens and Clark are probably still out, but Mastroeni will be back. The loss of Pickens is most troubling, but again, Burpo shouldn't face many shots, especially at home. San Jose is going from sea-level to a mile high, and their "resurgence" has been at home, not on the road. They absolutely stink on the road. Their recent form is not as good as you might think either. If you're worried about Pickens being out, take the draw.

Our prediction: SJO 1 Col 2.

To the Nordecke Hordes: Cheer Suggestion Number One

Sung to the tune of "We Support Columbus."

Beckham can go suck it, go suck it, go suck it
And Posh Spice can go suck it, go suck it, go suck it
The Galaxy can suck it, can suck it, can suck it,
O way-o, way-0, way-o, O way-o, O way-o etc, etc. . .

LA vs Crew Preview: To Parity and Beyond!

By El Chupa
As the numbers to the left reveal (click to see a larger image), the Crew and LA are tied in virtually every category. The Crew have a narrow lead in total points, and points earned per game. And they have more home wins (HW), but they have only one more win overall than the Galaxy. The Crew have 38 Total Goals to the Galaxy's 35, and they both have virtually the same number of Shots and Shots on Goal. They also are basically tied when it comes to Shots on Goal per Game, Corners Taken, Shots on Goal Allowed, and Corners Against. QSHT is a raw measure of the number of SOGs above the league average that each team has created that were indeed high quality scoring chances, and again the difference is negligible. Most importantly, the Luchametric has them separated by a mere .3 of a STDEV. That amounts to a deadlock. Finally, it must be noted that LA's numbers don't reflect a full season with Beckham in the lineup.

This game will come down to tactics, individual match-ups, home field advantage, and whether each team performs to its full potential. We fear the Crew are staring another draw in the face, with which they should probably be satisfied. The pressure to send a message to LA and the league by earning a full three points is high, however, and the Crew are running out of home games. The pressure not to give up three points, however, is even higher. We'll be doing a comparison of each team's scorers later today or tomorrow.

EPL Statistics: Chelsea's Dominance by the Numbers

By El Chupa
We're going to try and dedicate the rest of the week to providing as much insight into the Crew's epic match with LA as possible, including suggested cheers for the Nordecke Hoards to unleash on Beckham and his fellow swine from the Galaxy. But today, were offering a few insights on Chelsea's dominance of the EPL.

First, they lead the league in PTS obviously, but also in Wins, and Fewest Goals Allowed (tie with Man City at a mere 3). They also have allowed the fewest Goals Against per Game (.5), and lead the league in Goal Differential at 12. They have put 8.33 Shots on Goal per game, which is well over the league average of 5.17 and behind only Man U and Liverpool (8.5 and 9.5 respectively).

Finally, they've allowed only 17 Corners Against (the league average is 32.8) and perhaps most telling of all, they've allowed only 9 Shots on Goal Against all year. The league average is 29.10. That's right, people, over six full games, or 540+ minutes of play, six teams have managed to create a mere nine SOGs. That means each team really only managed to produce one serious chance at a goal in each game. How the F do you beat a team when you can't manage more than one or two decent chances while they are literally ASSAULTING your goal? Overall Chelsea has allowed only 33 Shots Against all season. Compare this to the league average of 78.65 and you realize just how dominant are their midfield and back four. Another useful point of comparison is second-place Man U, who have allowed twice as many Shots overall at 66.

My friends, it's not simply that Chelsea can score, the numbers suggest that their midfield and defense are the best in the league, hands down. If you give up a goal to Chelsea, you are behind the eight-ball. Yes, it's early, and yes, Chelsea has not faced all the top teams yet. But over one month of play and six games, they've been incredibly consistent and incredibly difficult to beat. Even if Man U is still a contender, they're no longer the team to beat in the EPL. The rest of Europe better look out when it comes to Champions League play.

Finally, Chelsea leads the rest of the league in the vaunted Luchametric by 2.24 STDEVs in overall production, and 2.13 STDEVs in Pro/GM. Man U is second with 1.67 and 1.57 respectively. This puts Chelsea one-half or .5 STDEVs ahead of Man U, which is rather close but still a significant difference, and a minimum of one full STDEV over their next-closest rivals: Man City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal. This means they have played a serious cut above not just the rest of the league, but the very best teams in the league. Word.

EPL Power Rankings: Duh

By El Chupa
Seriously. Chelsea. Duh. Look for some statistical insights tomorrow. Hopefully I'll have time. Blog life. Columbus 'till I die. Go Crew. Huge game Saturday. Get you ass there if you can. Tell Beckham to suck it.

MLS Power Rankings: Crew on Top with Game in Hand

By El Chupa
El Luchador's MLS Power Rankings have been fully updated through yesterday's Crew draw at CHI. No time for analysis right now. Just bask in the beauty of the numbers. Columbus has a game in hand and maintains at least .79 of a STDEV above everyone in the league except for LA and CHI. We think the top three will certainly figure in the final four teams competing for the championship. Word.

Man City at Man U: The Thrill! The Abject Despair! The Orgasmatic Rush of Confliction!

By El Chupa

El Chupa and El Luchador LOATHE Man U. But El Chupa found himself in emotional turmoil as his wager on Man U went from won to lost to won to lost to won in the freaking final minute of extra time. Holy shit. The only thing better is sex...but just barely. With Man U's win and a win on a last-minute wager on LA over TOR El Chupa had a good weekend. But I still hate 'em.

EPL Results: The Thrill and the Agony

By El Chupa

Well, Burnley crushed Sunderland. We aren't afraid to admit that we got that one wrong. But El Chupa won his Parlay of Arsenal and Aston Villa, Liverpool won, and he has put his money on hated Man U in tomorrow's Manchester Derby as well. Two things: it's early in the season and the numbers will shift as the data comes in. We're about 1/8 th of the way through the season and Dr. Bumba and El Chupa have concluded we probably need to get to somewhere between 10 and 15 games before the Luchametric becomes a bit more stable. Second, we've decide that any game where the two teams are separated by .5 of a standard deviation or less is to close to call. If one STDEV or higher separates the two teams, we're fairly confident that it marks a significant separation. Accordingly, El Chupa looks for Parlays involving games between teams separated by 1.0 STDEVs or higher, especially when the favored team is at home. He also looks for games where the higher ranked team is going into a venue where the bookmakers are giving too much credit to the home team. Of course, Sunderland was one such instance. But we maintain that once we get enough data in, upsets like the one today at Turf Moor will be fewer in number.